The latest fortnightly Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording an allergic reaction to the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull, with Labor’s 52-48 lead blowing out to 55-45. The report in The Guardian reveals the Coalition is down four on the primary vote to 35%, but that’s all we have for now. There is also no direct indication of whether the poll adjusted its usual Thursday to Sunday field work period to account for the leadership change on Friday, as Newspoll did by chopping out the Thursday, but the supplementary questions suggest as much. UPDATE: Full results here. They indeed held back starting the field work until Friday evening. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down four), Labor 39% (up two), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 7% (up one).
Some of these findings add to a confused picture when considered in conjunction with other polls. Scott Morrison holds a 39-29 lead over Bill Shorten in prime minister, which reverses the Newspoll result but is in line with the findings of ReachTEL’s seat polls for the Fairfax papers. Fifty-two per cent supported an early election, which is a very different finding from the ReachTEL polls. Then again, 56% agreed Scott Morrison should be given time “to show he can do a better job of governing Australia”, so who knows what people want.
Conversely, a question on preferred Liberal leader produces similar results to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull falls from 28% to 15% as support shifts to Julie Bishop (up seven to 23%) and Scott Morrison (up eight to 10%), while Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton remain much as they were, on 9% and 4% respectively. The poll also includes the somewhat surprising finding (to me at least) that 35% approve of the leadership change, with 40% disapproving. A striking 57% agreed with the proposition that “the Liberal party is divided and no longer fit to govern Australia”.
Also featured are semi-regular questions on the parties’ attributes, which I might have something to say about when I see the full results, and questions on six policy propositions, which find support for lower immigration, opposition to withdrawing from the Paris agreement, mixed views on funding more coal-fired power plants and opposition to company tax cuts.
Also today, The Australian has rolled together results from the last three Newspolls under Malcolm Turnbull to produce a final set of quarterly state breakdowns for his prime ministership, interrupting their usual schedule of publishing these at the end of each quarter. The results are very like those of BludgerTrack in finding solid swings against the government in Queensland (4.1%) and Western Australia (4.7%), only small swings in New South Wales (0.9%) and Victoria (2.2%), and a swing to the Coalition in South Australia (3.3%), where the Liberals seem to be benefiting from the new state government’s honeymoon and the decline of Nick Xenophon. UPDATE: Full results here; HT to GhostWhoVotes.
Finally, it is anticipated that a by-election in Wentworth will be held on October 6, after Malcolm Turnbull today told colleagues he would resign from parliament on Friday. While Christine Foster, Sydney councillor and sister of Tony Abbott, has attracted the most media attention, Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the more likely Liberal candidate is Dave Sharma, former ambassador to Israel. Others mentioned as candidates are Andrew Bragg, a director at the Business Council of Australia and former leader of the Yes same-sex marriage survey campaign, who will vie with Sharma for backing from factional moderates; Peter King, tha barrister who held the seat from 2001 until Turnbull defeated him for preselection in 2004; Katherine O’Regan, a Woollahra councillor.
booleanbach says:
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 at 5:44 pm
Is Barnaby still safe in his seat, after not only his own unfortunate misdeeds, but now the Liberal’s as well?
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The jury is out. But Liberals don’t count up this way, there is only one party, the Nationals.
I think the preselection might be interesting for the Nationals spot, though.
Don
The New England Nats and Barnyard remind me of the US Republicans and Trump.
Turn a blind eye to the idiocy, pandering to vested interests, ignore the philandering and in Barnyard’s case, the excessive drinking – hold their noses and keep voting for them.
Patricia Karvelas tweets…
I received a text message from one Liberal female MP who said she was too scared to be named but told me about these stand-over tactics and pleaded with me to pursue the story. The text message was chilling. #auspol @ABCNews
Don @ 8:54pm,
Nonsense that an incorrect detail “discredits an argument”. Especially when whoever made the mistake accepts the correction without demur, as happened here.
High school debaters who want to score more points from the judges and win think the way you do. Those of us who want to engage in argument in order to better grasp the truth about a contentious issue construe opposing arguments in their most charitable light. You can’t rigorously test the soundness of your own thinking if you do otherwise.
Henry Belot
@Henry_Belot
·
4m
The Federal Government is preparing to ban US whistleblower Chelsea Manning from coming to Australia for a speaking tour. The former soldier spent seven years behind bars for leaking documents to Wikileaks. She’s due to speak in Sydney on Sunday.
@politicsabc
This does not include reading Murdoch or travelling to Bali.
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 at 9:08 pm
Don
The New England Nats and Barnyard remind me of the US Republicans and Trump.
Turn a blind eye to the idiocy, pandering to vested interests, ignore the philandering and in Barnyard’s case, the excessive drinking – hold their noses and keep voting for them.
________________________
Got it in one. You don’t live up this way, do you? 🙂
Goodness, it sounds as if the floodgates might be about to break!
DaretoTread @ #1253 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 7:13 pm
IDK, personally, I’m more interested in the Russian’s advanced infantry technology. Between their thick rubber soles and their ultra-lightweight all-purpose uniforms; the Russian soldiers are gonna blitz through their jumping jacks and push-ups and that’ll be tough for the Chinese to beat.
Bolt and Price still whining about Turnbull. How surprising.
Fess the Libs are in a swag of self inflicted pain that will take a long time to recover from.
This is getting more interesting. Was Dutton the bully Banks was referring to?
Bill Shorten town hall with Kim Travers in Pearce
[IMG]
[/IMG]
.
davidwh:
We said in 2007/08 they needed to recover and rebuild but the media gave them a free pass on that.
grimace:
How do you upload photos here?
Btw good to see you’re there!
Hi ausdavo. Well poll Bludger proves that the Tories do not have a monopoly of RWNJ’S. Two of the most frequent posters on here protest support for Labor, but would be hounded of any Labor branch I have ever attended. They are both little Groupers. I must say, I do find their 1950’s musings entertaining from time to time.
Rudd and Gillard helped as well Fess.
@ confessions
I’ve used tinypic.com and can’t see it on my phone.
Bill Shorten:
[IMG]
[/IMG]
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1311 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 8:19 pm
Well, at least you got the crux of the argument right. Which is more than most here did!
Sadly, it no longer matters for the largest living organism on the planet.
There aren’t that many females in the liberal party for there to be floodgates … but it is no laughing matter. Sounds like the heavies (who we are already thinking are likely fascists) are proving they are as nasty as we thought. And this is not a left/right matter.
Hello Nicholas:
As the Hapsburg prince/archbisiop opined of Mozart’s masterpiece, too many notes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCud8H7z7vU
grimace says:
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 at 9:27 pm
@ confessions
I’ve used tinypic.com and can’t see it on my phone.
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It seems to me to be an entirely hit and miss business. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.
The only surefire method I have found is to upload it to my own website and link it from there, which is a method not available to the vast majority of posters here.
As in:
PS, does this photo show on a phone?
davidwh:
Abbott got a huge pass by the media in 2010, much the same as Trump did where almost all his rallies and press conferences were given wall to wall FTA coverage. Abbott should not have been given the serious media coverage he got when first becoming LOTO. That isn’t on R/G.R, but on the press gallery.
grimace:
You’re doing well. Thanks for posting updates.
Although commentary would be appreciated if you’re able.
Good to see you Trog, and best wishes.
Can we now restart the Trog v P1 flame war on “renewables only” v “renewables plus gas as a transitional fuel” please? Because I really miss that shit.
Heh, giddy-up!
Maybe we can make the 2018 version nuclear vs renewables… Just for shits and giggles.
@Confessions
I hope so Labor might get to 60-40 in the polls now with LNP have a ‘women’ issue.
Confessions @ #1365 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 9:26 pm
I have used Tinypics with hit and miss results.
Currently I use Postimage.com which has been faultless.
I could could give detailed instructions tomorrow if you like.
please advise. 😋
Millennial @ #1357 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 9:24 pm
Hey
are you on Koolaid or just having a lend?
From the Global Firepower site it would seem that USA is No 1 on all things airborne – in numbers and I assume also technology.
USA is probably ahead in naval capability because of its aircraft carriers but China is catching up very, very, very fast. Russia has capability in submarines but not much else. Both Russia and China are modern and technologically capable. North Korea beats everyone on numbers of boats but I guess nt technologically.
On land based stuff – artillery etc Russia wins the prize.
@ Confessions it’s being live streamed on Facebook if you want to watch.
Test…
Confessions
Who owns ‘the media’ ? What would their agenda be ? Senior journos are well paid employees of the owners. So they do what the ‘boss’ wants.
Clem Attlee @ #1363 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 9:26 pm
Only two Clem? There sure are a lot of Groupers here
One reason they are so pathologically hostile to the Greens is that gives them a moral justification to preference the LNP ahead of the Greens. it is an emotional defence mechanism.
Don, I saw your pic on my phone, if that helps.
Bill stream
https://www.facebook.com/BillShorten/videos/259678547993014/
I haven’t seen any of the Imgur ones, Otoh.
Pearce skews younger than a few other electorates in WA which is reflected in the audience. There are a lot of young people and parents with their children. The issues that have come up so far are transport/infrastructure (biggest issue in metropolitan Pearce), education and health.
The town hall is being held at the northern end of Pearce.
The responses of certain “Senior” LIberal figures both in the Parliament and outside the Parliament may be resulting in others thinking enough is enough and speaking out in support of the now maligned Chisholm MP
Would the Chisholm MP consider an immediate resignation given the comment she is attracting and from who including the President of the Victorian Branch of the LIberal Party and the defence of Sukkar saying he had not spoken to her since whenever?
Whilst she remains in the Parliament she has to associate with those now attempting to demean her and her integrity
So could she follow Turnbull out of the door – then who else?
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, August 29, 2018 at 9:48 pm
Don, I saw your pic on my phone, if that helps.
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Thanks C@t.
I will investigate KJ’s website.
Bill Shorten as usual is performing very well in this format.
grimace:
The sound from the live facebook feed is appalling. I can’t hear anything, even with earphones.
grimace @ #1380 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 7:45 pm
The sound is atrocious.
fess
SNAP!
KJ, I think the link is:
https://postimages.org/
not
.com
The Facebook feed camera is right up the back of the room, not sure that can be fixed.
DTT
Re Aircraft carriers. Russia decided in the 60s not to compete, not enough money, so went for missiles to take out carriers. Recent developments make carriers increasingly,as some Russkiy described the UK’s Queen Elizabeth , “a large convenient target”.
Question on immigration/refugees in support of refugees and closing Nauru/Manus, got a couple of energetic spontaneous applauses.
Testing:
https://postimg.cc/image/46jypqdyz/
Nope, can’t get KJ’s method/website to work consistently.
It worked on an old PB page, which I do to avoid cluttering the current page with tests. But not here.
Retirement age question.
https://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/5614484/gilmore-mp-storms-out-of-party-meeting-after-coup/
Oh dear more LNP fighting!