The latest poll from Ipsos, the week’s only fresh result, has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to take a 0.6% turn in Labor’s favour. About half of this is down to the poll recording reasonably strong primary vote numbers for Labor, but the other half is down to Labor’s particularly good result on respondent-allocated preferences. This helps BludgerTrack determine the wild card in the electoral deck, namely the flow of One Nation preferences. Since data of this kind is only provided by Ipsos and ReachTEL, results have a fairly substantial impact when they do come along, which might be thought a shortcoming of the model. In any case, the BludgerTrack seat projection now has Labor up one apiece in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Ipsos also produced leadership ratings which, after adjustment for Ipsos’s pronounced peculiarities on this score (i.e. how favourable they tend to be for both leaders, but especially for Turnbull), landed right on trend and hence made next to no difference to the existing result.
As always, full results from the link below. And while you’re here, take note of the dedicated post on the Super Saturday by-elections below, and my bi-monthly grovel for money in the post above. Thank you!
Finally, one more polling nugget for good measure: four days ago, GhostWhoVotes related that ReachTEL conducted a poll of the Bundaberg-based seat of Hinkler, which Labor hasn’t held since Paul Keating was Prime Minister, back on May 17. This had the Liberal National Party leading 54-46, down from 58.4-41.6 at the election, from primary votes of LNP 40.8%, Labor 27.3%, One Nation 14.3% and Greens 4.2%. For whom this poll was conducted and why, I can only speculate. Perhaps the Ghost can fill us in in comments, if he or she is about.
CC
I disagree about high speed trains. Fast trains yes. Fast means limited stops. Thats very limited stops.
That will do much to speed the rail network and make it competitive with trains.
Orbital trains will work much better because many use cars now only because to get to parramatta from cronulla means you have to go to the city and then catch another train to parramatta. Thats the train waiting time. The transfer waiting time plus the wasted time going to central rather than from Sydenham to Parramatta. As the metro will do.
More diverse routes on the train means more cars off the road more jobs available less congestion as not all the train traffic has to go to central.
The Abbott/Turnbull governments have achieved something, at least.
CO2 emissions are increasing. Electricity costs are through the roof. Reliability is through the floor. Sovereign risk in the energy investment space has never been higher.
All this in a country which is blessed with unlimited wind, sunshine and uranium.
Morrison has wrestled the Debt Gorilla to the ground by doubling the debt.
Hyperbowl? Just ask Morrison!
Let’s hope that the Debt Gorilla does not get back while Morrison has his back turned.
Guytaur simple answer.
No it won’t.
I’ll explain why when I get back to a real keyboard. Stay tuned
Boerwar,
Surely after all your rants about “men” being used instead of ”some men” in the ‘gender wars’, you would not be so hypocritical as to use the label ”Greens” rather than ”some Greens”
Boerwar
Ah yes “Sovereign risk”, it used to be super popular with the Coalition orcs. What ever happened to it ? Out looking for ‘Debt and deficit disaster” ?
CC
You forget Central is not Central. Parramatta is. Thus make more trains teat Parramatta as Central you start clearing bottlenecks and making travel times reasonable at a reasonable cost.
Peg
Stop twisting like a worm on a hook. The Greens should just stop pretending to be environmentalists and to start admitting that the are Socialists. Your post above noted approvingly that someone had adopted ‘socialism’. Go ahead. Do it. Stop pretending.
p
Sovereign Risk is in the bottom drawer, waiting to be pulled out and dusted to bash Labor around the head with.
The started rising the minute Abbott’s govt abolished carbon pricing.
One thing that is a bit of a relief is that all the paid-for raving right gushers and urgers in Murdoch Land have stopped lauding Trump and May to the skies.
Turns out that the first is a maniac and the second is a total dud.
C
Yep. Thanks to the Socialists in the Greens Party.
The actual outcome of Scrott’s Gorilla wrestle. Add an h to the start of the address if the pic does not show.
.
ttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DrTDSW7xwSI/TPSa9FIND_I/AAAAAAAAC3s/EPjcj19cIpY/s1600/Mike+getting+dragged.JPG
Guytaur no I haven’t.
Wait till I’ve eaten, waited on an infrequent bus, taken a slow bus ride then walked home so I can reply properly 🙂
Simon² Katich® @ #1067 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 12:11 pm
Which is exactly what a decent NBN would’ve facilitated. Office could’ve been moved out the CBD to (from a Sydney perspective) Chatswood, Parramatta and Hurstville) making it easier for people who live around those areas a far easier commute than to the CBD 5 days week.
The opportunity to do that may well now be gone forever.
The Greens: a mix of gunnas, coudabeens and hasbeens.
Good for environmental destruction. Good for getting into bed with the Liberals. Good for blockages and stoppages.
Most of all, excellent for the UBI!
I guess in Boerwar’s world a person can not be both a socialist and an environmentalist. Patently absurd.
Any cursory reading of the Greens Party platform, which is derived from grassroots/membership’s input, does not by any means reflect a socialist agenda. Just ask Socialist Alliance.
Socialist Alliance policies: https://socialist-alliance.org/policy
.
p
Good pic showing Morrison after he wrestled the Debt Gorilla to the ground.
‘Pegasus says:
Sunday, July 1, 2018 at 2:48 pm
I guess in Boerwar’s world a person can not be both a socialist and an environmentalist.’
Tosh. Have a look at the environment in the former socialist countries: absolutely wrecked.
Yet Labor uses it for its own agenda too.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-02/shorten-says-he-cant-ban-adani-mine-because-of-sovereign-risk/9503100
look, some of my best friends are from the greater west of Sydney. Some of them even chose to move there. You know where this is going…..
There is a lifestyle element to people living that far from the CBD. Many I know chose that because they wanted a big house with all the mod cons – they wanted the best of both worlds but that turned into a living nightmare of endless commuting hours. others were smarter and moved there because they had work there or were soon able to do so.
When I lived in Sydney I made sacrifices to be able to live close to work. Small house/apartment. Only one cheap small car…. Before long I didnt notice they were sacrifices at all.
But there are many who just dont have the choice. They can only afford to rent a small house/apartment way out west. They can only find jobs a long way from where they live. These people have been let down by public policy and I am uneasy about long distance fast trains being the solution.
DG
Even the LNP are planning on having three major centres. Penrith. Parramatta The or the Harbour CBD we should call it.
With the growth coming running trains on the limited track available for the Harbour makes no sense when we have a central station called parramatta that trains can be routed through.
As for the NBN I think Labor will save it. It will just take longer to do as the copper gradually gets ripped out an replaced with fibre over time.
Edit: MY case for orbital trains is exactly that for orbital express ways. Faster getting around without going into the harbour area
Rex ‘Internal Labor incompetence, division and factionalism has resulted in rising CO2 emissions.’
Very good Rex, back into pure Labor bashing. I thought for a minute, you were starting to perhaps, maybe bash the LNP. But not so.
Boerwar @ #1118 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 12:50 pm
You’re confusing (probably deliberately) socialism with communism. Just because a country had “Socialist” in it’s title, doesn’t make it any more socialist than the word democratic as in The Democratic People’s Republic Of North Korea makes that country democratic.
That is pure McCarthy era “reds under the beds” bullshit.
SK, it doesn’t have to be a socialist country to wreck the environment. Look at the great democracy of Australia. Large portion of the GBR wrecked, most of inland range land degraded, record extinctions, feral animals, weeds.
Pegasus @ #1118 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 2:51 pm
Shifty Bill knows all the angles.
PeeBee @ #1121 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 2:55 pm
It’s a statement of fact which is irrefutable.
Simon² Katich® @ #1058 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 2:04 pm
People living everywhere should work from home. Commuting to a physical place of work is so 20th-century. Huge waste of time and (almost exclusively non-renewable) energy.
Oh. Maybe I got the trail of argument wrong. I was just pointing out that any type of government can be an environment wrecker. I also believe a government based on a free market with a strong democracy and government willing to regulate the market in areas of failure can be an environmentally responsible one. Within that framework, there is ample room (and probably essential) for progressive policy and government owned institutions.
For a start, if a government thinks the market is failing in an area of public infrastructure (like public housing or NBN) they can and should step in and they should also feel free to build it themselves in-house away from the greedy cream skimmers of the private companies preying on government contracts and PPPs.
Rex: ‘Shifty Bill knows all the angles. ‘
‘It’s a statement of fact which is irrefutable.’
What is irrefutable is you are a Labor basher.
Don’t know why you masquerade as a Green.
Rex, the majority of your emissions would have been nocturnal.
Finally made it to conference. Just heard Jihad Dib. Quite impressive.
Douglas and Milko @ #1132 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 1:09 pm
Did you manage to find C@t?
Don’t know why you masquerade as a Green.
Actually I do know. Greens want the LNP to govern forever and wreck the environment. That is why Greens bash Labor almost exclusively.
Confessions, not yet. I am upstairs, separated from the delegates, but am keeping an eye out. Hopefully I can catch her at coffee.
Douglas and Milko says: Sunday, July 1, 2018 at 3:14 pm
Confessions, not yet. I am upstairs, separated from the delegates, but am keeping an eye out. Hopefully I can catch her at coffee.
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Psst ….. she is the one with a set of wings on her back and a halo 🙂
D&M:
Well, when you find her say hello to her from me 🙂
PeeBee
An opinion as absurd as:
Labor want the LNP to govern forever and wreck the environment. That is why Labor bash Greens almost exclusively.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/new-financial-year-the-budget-and-policy-changes-taking-effect-on-july-1-20180701-p4zotb.html
I’ve been away for a couple of hours and reading all the posts when I get back, one thing becomes apparent, ESJ and Rex are scared. Very scared.
It’s fascinating to see how many places Georgina Downer is popping up to take some of the credit for.
Here she is accepting the surrender of the Japanese after she won WWII for the Aliies:
DG
LOL.
She is a bit hot though. Why can’t you get that girls and boys will always be that.I wouldn’t vote for her but good times would be fine.
And here’s Downer signing a peace deal between the US and North Korea for the people of Mayo.
DG
LOL
The Greens never saw a socialist they did not fall in love with. Maduro. His country is wrecked but hey…
Rex Douglas says: Sunday, July 1, 2018 at 3:42 pm
Sky News wishes to apologise to Senator @sarahinthesen8 for broadcasting appalling comments by Senator @DavidLeyonhjelm earlier today, and for highlighting them in an on-screen strap. A producer has been suspended pending an internal investigation.— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) July 1, 2018
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Senator David Leyonhjelm should have been suspended pending an investigation !!!!! ….. disgusting creep !!!
BW
Are you tarring all Greens with your mind-reading derived pronouncement or do you mean some Greens?
Just following your line of thinking during the ‘gender wars’ re “men’.