The latest poll from Ipsos, the week’s only fresh result, has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to take a 0.6% turn in Labor’s favour. About half of this is down to the poll recording reasonably strong primary vote numbers for Labor, but the other half is down to Labor’s particularly good result on respondent-allocated preferences. This helps BludgerTrack determine the wild card in the electoral deck, namely the flow of One Nation preferences. Since data of this kind is only provided by Ipsos and ReachTEL, results have a fairly substantial impact when they do come along, which might be thought a shortcoming of the model. In any case, the BludgerTrack seat projection now has Labor up one apiece in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Ipsos also produced leadership ratings which, after adjustment for Ipsos’s pronounced peculiarities on this score (i.e. how favourable they tend to be for both leaders, but especially for Turnbull), landed right on trend and hence made next to no difference to the existing result.
As always, full results from the link below. And while you’re here, take note of the dedicated post on the Super Saturday by-elections below, and my bi-monthly grovel for money in the post above. Thank you!
Finally, one more polling nugget for good measure: four days ago, GhostWhoVotes related that ReachTEL conducted a poll of the Bundaberg-based seat of Hinkler, which Labor hasn’t held since Paul Keating was Prime Minister, back on May 17. This had the Liberal National Party leading 54-46, down from 58.4-41.6 at the election, from primary votes of LNP 40.8%, Labor 27.3%, One Nation 14.3% and Greens 4.2%. For whom this poll was conducted and why, I can only speculate. Perhaps the Ghost can fill us in in comments, if he or she is about.
What did Labor senators have to say at the time about this incident?
Bernardi shows where he stands on this matter. Defintely not a ‘christian’ attitude.
https://www.conservatives.org.au/sarah_hanson_young_s_tears_and_tantrums
citizen says: Sunday, July 1, 2018 at 3:56 pm
Sky News wishes to apologise to Senator @sarahinthesen8 for broadcasting appalling comments by Senator @DavidLeyonhjelm earlier today, and for highlighting them in an on-screen strap. A producer has been suspended pending an internal investigation.— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) July 1, 2018
Bernardi shows where he stands on this matter. Defintely not a ‘christian’ attitude.
https://www.conservatives.org.au/sarah_hanson_young_s_tears_and_tantrums
**********************************
That URL takes me to a website called “Conservatives” – no more needs to be said about THEIR attitudes !
Peg :’and wreck the environment. That is why Labor bash Greens almost exclusively.’
Bashing labor again I see.
Look forward to you bashing LNP at some stage. (But I won’t hold my breath).
DG
I look forward to Ms Downer presenting for gold, silver and bronze medals in the Olympic 100 metre freestyle.
phoenixRED @ #1148 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 1:46 pm
Since Leyonhjelm made those comments outside of parliament, Hanson-Young should sue him into oblivion.
“That URL takes me to a website called “Conservatives” – no more needs to be said about THEIR attitudes !”
That’s the website for Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives Party. Due to the defections in SA, his party these days seems to comprise two men and a dog.
pR
The whole thing is bizarre. Sen L had better apologize properly or the Senate might do something nasty to him.
DG
He made them in the Senate, originally. Did he repeat them outside the Coward’s Castle?
Pegasus @ #1149 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 3:54 pm
Good question. Same question goes to Govt senators.
Boerwar says: Sunday, July 1, 2018 at 4:02 pm
DG
I look forward to Ms Downer presenting for gold, silver and bronze medals in the Olympic 100 metre freestyle
***************************************************
……. and standing next to Donald Trump in accepting a joint Nobel prize ……
However ,,,,,,
Pegasus @ #1150 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 12:54 pm
What about Government Senators, other Cross Benches and of course her fellow Greens.
A pathetic point really!
DG
Ah.
Rex Douglas @ #1155 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 2:03 pm
WTF?
And seriously, what kind of TV is a bunch of old, white males sat around ruminating on the sexual preferences/behaviour or whatever of a woman when she’s at work?! Talk about icky and creepy.
Boerwar @ #1154 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 2:02 pm
That’s still a couple of years away. In the meantime she has the World Cup to win for the people of Mayo.
DG
The Golden Boot award beckons!
Boerwar @ #1159 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 2:04 pm
Apparently he repeated them on SkyNews.
Wow Nadine Flood’s contribution an indictment on Turnbull’s govt.
In case you didn’t know 18000 public service jobs lost but SERCO and similar companies (multinationals) are getting these jobs at a lower rate.
Turnbull wants to outsource tax office (multinationals who pay little or no tax).
By using these ‘contract consultancies’ they’ve privatising by stealth.
A scene from today’s Labor conference.
BigD:’Pegasus @ #1150 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 12:54 pm
What did Labor senators have to say at the time about this incident?
What about Government Senators, other Cross Benches and of course her fellow Greens.
A pathetic point really!’
Not if you are a Green. Take every opportunity to bash Labor is their MO.
Barney in GD,
PBers are 90%+ Labor members or supporters.
I have previously noted that if it had been a Labor senator rather than SH-Y there would have been wall to wall outrage here.
I find it curious given the ‘gender wars’ here recently there has been almost no comment from any of these same protagonists.
So, I was merely inquiring what Labor senators have had to say as nothing has been posted here.
Confessions @ #1170 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 4:10 pm
an echo chamber ?
Just now on RN news it was said wtte Shorten was applauded by a rapturous audience.
Peg ‘So, I was merely inquiring what Labor senators have had to say as nothing has been posted here.’
And besides it is yours (and Greens’) mission to bash Labor at every opportunity.
Pegasus @ #1175 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 1:12 pm
Who said they heard anything?
What about the Cross Benches who next to them?
Troll!!!!!
Rex ‘an echo chamber ?’
Bashing Labor again.
Meanwhile in NZ:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/new-mum-jacinda-ardern-launches-new-families-package-from-her-couch-20180701-p4zout.html
BinDG
lol Your propensity for using multiple exclamation points detracts from times when dramatic effect is warranted.
jenauthor
Taken straight from the UK’s ‘Nasty Party” playbook. Not forgetting to mention @$@$@$!!!! Tony Blair was into it as well.
Another similarity. The same vultures are involved.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/cleaners-strike-st-barts-biggest-strike-inside-the-nhs-a7822346.html
Pegasus @ #1179 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 1:21 pm
So your trolling doesn’t allow you to address relevant points?
BinDG
You do have a low threshold of what constitutes “trolling”
You didn’t address my points either.
If I had a dollar for every time someone didn’t address the points in my posts I would be a very rich person indeed.
Guytaur. Home now. Only took me an hour and a half. Not bad for something I would have accomplished in 12 minutes in a car – if I could drive.
Ok lets first look at Penrith to Parramatta. (station to station). On the present timetable the limited stops trains take 25 minutes and the not so limited stops trains take roughly 35 minutes?
Is this something to sing and dance about? Well, not really. I mean, its ok if you happen to live somewhere near Penrith station and you happen to be going to somewhere near Parramatta station. But when you consider all the door to door possibilities, you don’t have to go far from these stations before it becomes quicker to drive. And that’s the essence of what is wrong with the entire network.
In order for trains to be competitive with cars, they can’t just match the car journey station to station, they have to be twice as fast. That’s why a rail network that typically averages 55Km/hr in a city the size of Sydney will always be outclassed by car travel over most end to end journeys – except where congestion and parking forces you to take the slow train trip.
Now from Parramatta to the CBD, lets take Parramatta station to Town Hall station.
The are any number of T1 line trains that take you direct in about half an hour.
Will Metro West improve on this? Yes, it will take about 21-23 minutes. Worth it? Yes. Transformative? No. Will it make Parramatta a second CBD with head offices and high value jobs? No.
By the way, even though you’re supposed to take a train, how long does it take to get from Parramatta to Town Hall by car? Well, depends on traffic. Google says 26-55 minutes. I’ve seen worse, but that’s a fair range. Now obviously if your end points are near those stations the train wins hands down, most of the time. If on the other hand your home address is some random house I picked in North Parramatta, then the combined bus plus train trip blows out to 46 minutes. (I could have picked even worse examples). And yes, I’m well aware that parking is an additional deterrent. I’m just pointing this out to show how close public transport comes to not competing. And I haven’t even mentioned Westconnex here.
How about Penrith to the CBD? Well, on the train that’s typically a bit over an hour direct, or just slightly under an hour with interchange at Central. This isn’t exactly world class, is it? What will Metro West do here? Well assuming that more trains stop at Westmead and you can interchange to Metro West there, your best case from Penrith to Town Hall (limited stops to Westmead) is about 50 minutes. Sucks to live in Penrith, don’t it?
How long does it take to drive Penrith to Town Hall? Google says 45m to 1hr15m. Obviously won’t do it in the peak, but off peak? Well that again depends on parking. Some will actually find a convenient parking spot near some other station (with Metro West, there is going to be a lot of cars showing up at Olympic Park).
But just to reinforce the message. This is a network that cannot and does no compete with cars over the majority of end to end journeys – except where congestion and/or parking absolutely forces you to use the train. This is why system wide, cars enjoy an 80+% mode share.
The only way it changes, is with raw speed.
Obviously I have not watched Government processes up close.
This has me truly baffled – The McGowan government is very new, the incidents related in this story began well before McGowan became Premier; so why should the ALP want to hush this up? Surely they could quite honestly answer the question being asked without bringing themselves under intense pressure?
https://thewest.com.au/opinion/paul-murray/paul-murray-the-hidden-cancer-of-roebourne-after-child-abuse-ng-b88881589z
Rex:
Yep, only Labor can save penalty rates.
May has just announced an extra 20 billion pounds a year to the NHS. So now we know why. SERCO.
Here’s something to get stuck into:
https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/books/children-s-books-are-drowning-in-a-sea-of-contemporary-ideology-20180621-p4zmv3.html
Pegasus @ #1182 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 1:32 pm
But I did address your point by asking what evidence is there that anyone from Labor heard the comment.
The installation of Sally McManus is the best thing to happen to the ACTU leadership for a while.
Strong grassroots action by unionists and their supporters, fighting for workers’ rights, is what creates a groundswell for change.
https://changetherules.org.au/
Confessions @ #1185 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 4:33 pm
Well, no, they don’t have the numbers.
Peg: ‘If I had a dollar for every time someone didn’t address the points in my posts I would be a very rich person indeed.’.
No need to give you a dollar (and yes you would be rich) because we know your points are to bash Labor. Nothing to address.
More scenes from Labor’s conference.
B
Have any Labor senators said anything publicly in support of SH-Y since the altercation has been widely reported?
I don’t know. Do you?
Rex, ‘Well, no, they don’t have the numbers.’
If only the Greens would support Labor instead of the LNP, they would.
And besides, after the next election they will have the numbers and the Greens can cosy up with the LNP and become as irrelevant as them.
Guytaur in response to your comments about additional express tracks.
The reality is we already have express tracks. As currently configured the network has 2 track pairs (four tracks) between Parramatta and Strathfield and then 3 track pairs (six tracks) between Strathfield and the CBD.
There is a fair amount of juggling going on, but in simple terms, the T1 line trains that need to run limited stops, do. And you’re not going to make them faster. T2 is a mish mash because its trying to do several things, and failing. Its branched to both Parramatta and Leppington, it has to provide service to all the inner west stations (and fails to deliver frequency), and it utterly fails to deliver any kind of humane timetable to the south. Plus it is conflicted with T5.
In any case, post Metro West, what T2 does is somewhat irrelevant from the point of view of someone west of Parramatta. T2 might as well run all stops.
The reason why we have Metro West is not to have a fast rail line (although Constance is already bullshitting about it being high speed). The reason for Metro West is not having enough trains between Parramatta and the CBD. the reasons for this are complex. For a start, T1 serves the Northern line which limits its frequency to Parramatta. For another T2 also branches to the south. There are other potential solutions. You could in theory run Northern line trains to Central terminus (that’s already in the wind for the trains that will serve the upper northern line once Epping to Chatswood is shut for conversion. You could also make T2 non branched (run all T2 trains to Parramatta). That would buy you perhaps a 50-60% capacity boost. However Metro West being single deck more than doubles capacity.
In summary, there is no hope of a decently fast train service from Penrith. There already exists limited stops services that with interchange at Central get you to Town Hall in just under an hour. Adding more trains just adds more trains. It doesn’t speed them up.
With Metro West that goes down to 50 minutes.
It still sucks dead dogs….
Pegasus @ #1193 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 1:43 pm
I have seen no comments from Labor which suggests no one heard, Penny Wong would especially enjoy sticking it to Leyonhjelm over an issue like this.
Have any Liberals?
Keep this shit up Pegasus you just look stupid.
boomy1,
I do want to move on but I am being polite and engaging with B.
Your constructive interference is appreciated.