Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Newspoll returns after three weeks to find the situation all but totally unchanged.

One Nation are off two points on the primary vote, from 8% to 6%, but the latest Newspoll is otherwise as dull as it gets. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is unchanged at 52-48, both major parties are unchanged at 38% on the primary vote, the Greens are up one to 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 40% and 50% respectively; Bill Shorten is down one to 33% and steady on 55%. Turnbull leads 46-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 47-30 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday, presumably from a sample of about 1600.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

891 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 18
1 … 14 15 16 … 18

  1. ““Only the LNP will keep the budget surplus and make sure we don’t go back into debt and deficits discaster which the ALP did”

    I usually ignore Wayne, but this was too funny…….’discaster’”

    Lol!……ESJ, can you lean over and reset Wayne bot?? He’s gone a bit OT on the bullshit.

  2. adrian @ #697 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 9:16 pm

    Henry @ #691 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 9:08 pm

    Some of the drivel posted here, by men, is embarrassing.
    Almost suggesting it was Eurydice’s fault for having the audacity to walk at night, alone.
    Tempting fate almost.
    What a disgrace some of you blokes are.
    When was the last time a man was raped and murdered by a woman?
    There’s your answer ffs.

    +1

    Except poor widdle Henry is too dumb to realise no-one has in any way blamed Eurydice for what happened. She has been universally acknowledged as the victim.
    But it was one of those unfortunate cases where she took a risk she perceived as small and it turned out not to be.
    She was attacked by ONE MAN, not men in general.

  3. “Don’t kill people” is hardly too much to ask of him.

    Or don’t assume a woman walking alone at night is fair game to be assaulted and murdered. It ain’t rocket science!

  4. Confessions says:
    Monday, June 18, 2018 at 8:54 pm
    Spare me the plonking condecension Confessions.

    *Sigh*

    What zoomster said. Clearly this issue is pushing buttons for you. I have no idea why that is, nor do I wish to know. But nobody here is referring to you specifically when they talk about men in general.
    —————————————————————

    So BB is not specifically guilty, just most men?

    In general
    phrase of general
    1.
    usually; mainly.
    “in general, Alexander was a peaceful, loving man”
    synonyms: generally, normally, as a (general) rule, in the general run of things, by and large, more often than not, almost always, in the main, mainly, mostly, for the most part, in most cases, most of the time, predominantly, on the whole; More
    2.
    as a whole.
    “our understanding of culture in general and of literature in particular”
    synonyms: as a whole, as a body, generally, at large, in the main
    “we want the public in general to understand the public health issues”

  5. Confessions

    ‘…and how men need to step up and establish a standard.’

    I take it you must personally be surrounded by a father, grandfathers, uncles, brothers, sons, male friends of the family and male work colleagues who ALL regularly engage in rape, murder women and bash women on a routine basis?
    Otherwise your views might suffer from a considerable degree of cognitive dissonance.

  6. imacca @ #696 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 9:16 pm

    “To be honest I’d never go out in Northbridge if I could help it. ”

    Yup, even back in the day it could be an intimidating place with some people being complete dicks.

    I love Northbridge, it’s my favorite part of Perth! Traveled there several times, went out alone at night each one, never had a hint of trouble. Granted I’m male, but not intimidating at all imo.

    Unless you have something against bubble tea and awesome Asian food. 🙂

  7. Boerwar @ #704 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 9:24 pm

    Confessions

    ‘…and how men need to step up and establish a standard.’

    I take it you must personally be surrounded by a father, grandfathers, uncles, brothers, sons, male friends of the family and male work colleagues who ALL regularly engage in rape, murder women and bash women on a routine basis?
    Otherwise your views might suffer from a considerable degree of cognitive dissonance.

    Apart from the fact that the law establishes the clearest possible standards, making all of the matters complained of with men,serious crimes with heavy punishments.
    This is not a secret.
    The transgressors are the tiny minority who don’t give a stuff about the law, norms of behaviour decency or anything else.

  10. You really are an odious old fool aren’t you bemused.
    I’ll repeat again and this time you may want to put some batteries in your hearing aid – when was the last time a man was raped and murdered by a woman ?

  12. @Edwina

    “So let’s re-cap:

    Labor has increased its primary vote from 35% at the election to 37-38% primary vote (in an environment of considerable Liberal party instability).

    The Liberal party primary vote has gone down from 42% to approximately 38-39%.

    A large chunk of the Liberal vote has passed to PHON.

    The Liberal party appears to have improved its polling by about 2% points on the allocation of preferences since December 2017.

    Unless there’s an improvement in the primary vote for either major party, minor party preferences esp PHON will decide the election.

    Conclusion: It’s looking a lot like a Mark Latham 2004 style election victory for Labor.”

    If we are going to actually recap, and draw some comparison with Mark Latham and the 2004 election then let’s start with with some actual real life historical facts. I’ve pasted a table of results from the 2004 election below.

    The first thing to note is that the combined Liberal, National and CLP primary vote was close to 47%, which would be a 9% improvement on where the LNP stand right now.

    The second thing to note is that the One Nation vote in 2004 was little better than 1% whereas it is currently ~6% but apparently in free fall … and yet the LNP seem stuck on 38%.

    Labor is only ~1% higher on primaries now than in 2004, but the Greens are at 10%.

    What is clear – and has been clear for successive elections since the Greens became a ‘balance of power’ thing in the naughties is that the party sits on Labor’s left flank. Whereas the party it replaced in that role – the democrats – sat between Labor and the conservatives. Labor can now comfortably expect at least 8, probably 9 out of every 10 Greens voters to preference labor, whereas that figure was never higher than 6 out of 10 for the democrats.

    History does not repeat. In this case, it’s not even rhyming with the comparison that Eddie seeks to draw. Labor’s is at 38% + 8% = 46% before the distribution of the 16% of ‘others’ gets allocated.

    With Truffles stuck on 38% primary vote it means (to coin a phrase) ‘his young boys need to shoot down their young boys by the rate of 3 to 1’. I’m thinking ‘this [will not be] his finest hour’. … Rather, I’m thinking he’s going down in flames over Dover.

    Carry on Chaps. …

    Party Votes % Swing Seats Change
    Coalition
    Liberal Party of Australia 4,741,458 40.47 +3.39 74 +5
    National Party of Australia 690,275 5.89 +0.28 12 −1
    Country Liberal Party 39,855 0.34 +0.02 1 0
    Australian Labor Party 4,408,820 37.63 −0.21 60 −4
    Australian Greens 841,734 7.19 +2.23 0 −1
    Family First Party 235,315 2.01 +2.01 0 0
    Australian Democrats 144,832 1.24 -4.17 0 0
    One Nation Party 139,956 1.19 −3.15 0 0
    Independents 286,206 2.44 −0.27 3 0
    Other 226,239 1.93 0 0
    Total 11,714,835 150
    Two-party-preferred vote
    Liberal/National Coalition WIN 52.74 +1.79 87 +5
    Australian Labor Party 47.26 −1.79 60 -5

  14. Henry @ #709 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 9:30 pm

    You really are an odious old fool aren’t you bemused.
    I’ll repeat again and this time you may want to put some batteries in your hearing aid – when was the last time a man was raped and murdered by a woman ?

    An idiotic question as you know it is very rare for obvious physical reasons, apart from a woman generally not being strong enough to overpower a man.
    But it has happened!
    I read of a US case where 2 women had their wicked way with a young Mormon missionary.

  15. Boerwar:

    You’d do well to read zoomster’s comment.

    If the accusations don’t apply to you, then they’re not meant for you. If you can’t do anything about the issue, no one expects you to.

    When someone posts (for example) about white Europeans massacring Aborigines, I don’t leap to the conclusion that they are blaming me as a white European or that they expect me to go back in time and unmassacre Aborigines. I don’t think that I’m being told to go out and be a missionary, or write to my local MP, or seek out Aboriginal people to tell them how sorry I am. I can acknowledge, despite all of this, that there are ongoing problems caused by the actions of white Europeans and that these need to be redressed.

    If I decided that, as a white European, I was going to get into a miff because I didn’t personally slaughter Aborigines, then that would be denying the existence of real problems which need to be solved – even if I personally can’t solve them.

  16. Andrew_Earlwood @ #711 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 9:32 pm

    @Edwina

    “So let’s re-cap:

    Labor has increased its primary vote from 35% at the election to 37-38% primary vote (in an environment of considerable Liberal party instability).

    The Liberal party primary vote has gone down from 42% to approximately 38-39%.

    A large chunk of the Liberal vote has passed to PHON.

    The Liberal party appears to have improved its polling by about 2% points on the allocation of preferences since December 2017.

    Unless there’s an improvement in the primary vote for either major party, minor party preferences esp PHON will decide the election.

    Conclusion: It’s looking a lot like a Mark Latham 2004 style election victory for Labor.”

    If we are going to actually recap, and draw some comparison with Mark Latham and the 2004 election then let’s start with with some actual real life historical facts. I’ve pasted a table of results from the 2004 election below.

    The first thing to note is that the combined Liberal, National and CLP primary vote was close to 47%, which would be a 9% improvement on where the LNP stand right now.

    The second thing to note is that the One Nation vote in 2004 was little better than 1% whereas it is currently ~6% but apparently in free fall … and yet the LNP seem stuck on 38%.

    Labor is only ~1% higher on primaries now than in 2004, but the Greens are at 10%.

    What is clear – and has been clear for sessile elections since the Greens became a ‘balance of power’ thing is that the party sits on Labor’s left flank. Whereas the party it replaced in that role – the democrats – sat between Labor and the conservatives. Labor can expect at least 8, probably 9 out of every 10 Greens voters to preference labor, whereas that figure was never higher than 6 out of 10 for the democrats.

    History does not repeat. In this case, it’s not even rhyming with the comparison that Eddie seeks to draw. Labor’s is at 38% + 8% = 46% before the distribution of the 16% of ‘others’ gets allocated.

    With Truffles stuck on 38% primary vote it means (to coin a phrase) ‘his young boys need to shoot down their young boys by the rate of 3 to 1’. I’m thinking ‘this [will not be] his finest hour’. … Rather, I’m thinking he’s going down in flames over Dover.

    Carry on Chaps. …

    Party Votes % Swing Seats Change
    Coalition
    Liberal Party of Australia 4,741,458 40.47 +3.39 74 +5
    National Party of Australia 690,275 5.89 +0.28 12 −1
    Country Liberal Party 39,855 0.34 +0.02 1 0
    Australian Labor Party 4,408,820 37.63 −0.21 60 −4
    Australian Greens 841,734 7.19 +2.23 0 −1
    Family First Party 235,315 2.01 +2.01 0 0
    Australian Democrats 144,832 1.24 -4.17 0 0
    One Nation Party 139,956 1.19 −3.15 0 0
    Independents 286,206 2.44 −0.27 3 0
    Other 226,239 1.93 0 0
    Total 11,714,835 150
    Two-party-preferred vote
    Liberal/National Coalition WIN 52.74 +1.79 87 +5
    Australian Labor Party 47.26 −1.79 60 -5

    Labor over the line then.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/eurydice-vigil-thousands-gather-to-mourn-woman-killed-in-princes-park-20180618-p4zm8q.html

  17. Andrew_Earlwood @ #711 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 9:32 pm

    @Edwina

    “So let’s re-cap:

    Labor has increased its primary vote from 35% at the election to 37-38% primary vote (in an environment of considerable Liberal party instability).

    The Liberal party primary vote has gone down from 42% to approximately 38-39%.

    A large chunk of the Liberal vote has passed to PHON.

    The Liberal party appears to have improved its polling by about 2% points on the allocation of preferences since December 2017.

    Unless there’s an improvement in the primary vote for either major party, minor party preferences esp PHON will decide the election.

    Conclusion: It’s looking a lot like a Mark Latham 2004 style election victory for Labor.”

    If we are going to actually recap, and draw some comparison with Mark Latham and the 2004 election then let’s start with with some actual real life historical facts. I’ve pasted a table of results from the 2004 election below.

    The first thing to note is that the combined Liberal, National and CLP primary vote was close to 47%, which would be a 9% improvement on where the LNP stand right now.

    The second thing to note is that the One Nation vote in 2004 was little better than 1% whereas it is currently ~6% but apparently in free fall … and yet the LNP seem stuck on 38%.

    Labor is only ~1% higher on primaries now than in 2004, but the Greens are at 10%.

    What is clear – and has been clear for sessile elections since the Greens became a ‘balance of power’ thing is that the party sits on Labor’s left flank. Whereas the party it replaced in that role – the democrats – sat between Labor and the conservatives. Labor can expect at least 8, probably 9 out of every 10 Greens voters to preference labor, whereas that figure was never higher than 6 out of 10 for the democrats.

    History does not repeat. In this case, it’s not even rhyming with the comparison that Eddie seeks to draw. Labor’s is at 38% + 8% = 46% before the distribution of the 16% of ‘others’ gets allocated.

    With Truffles stuck on 38% primary vote it means (to coin a phrase) ‘his young boys need to shoot down their young boys by the rate of 3 to 1’. I’m thinking ‘this [will not be] his finest hour’. … Rather, I’m thinking he’s going down in flames over Dover.

    Carry on Chaps. …

    Party Votes % Swing Seats Change
    Coalition
    Liberal Party of Australia 4,741,458 40.47 +3.39 74 +5
    National Party of Australia 690,275 5.89 +0.28 12 −1
    Country Liberal Party 39,855 0.34 +0.02 1 0
    Australian Labor Party 4,408,820 37.63 −0.21 60 −4
    Australian Greens 841,734 7.19 +2.23 0 −1
    Family First Party 235,315 2.01 +2.01 0 0
    Australian Democrats 144,832 1.24 -4.17 0 0
    One Nation Party 139,956 1.19 −3.15 0 0
    Independents 286,206 2.44 −0.27 3 0
    Other 226,239 1.93 0 0
    Total 11,714,835 150
    Two-party-preferred vote
    Liberal/National Coalition WIN 52.74 +1.79 87 +5
    Australian Labor Party 47.26 −1.79 60 -5

    A_E: Careful – you’ll make ESJ cry into “her” sherry. You may even split the bots infinitive.

  19. confessions

    ‘If the accusations don’t apply to you, then they’re not meant for you. If you can’t do anything about the issue, no one expects you to.’

    0/10 for logic.

    Try this: ‘Women want to be victims, and if that accusation doesn’t apply to you, then it is not meant for you.’

  21. I’m not making nasty insinuations, just forming perfectly reasonable conclusions on the basis of your comments here.

    There’s my point. You are not making reasonable conclusions, you are just hanging a smarmy, nasty, condescending position off the fact that I (and others) have had a gutful of being held responsible for the actions of every rapist and murderer in the land, no matter how distant (or non-existent) the connection, how far removed from the scene of the crime, or how little inclined we may be to commit, or to have ever committed, or to have encouraged others to commit such crimes ourselves.

    It says a lot about the feminist mafia that the “only” “conclusion” they can come to when they accuse others of hideous malfeasance (and receive a fairly understandable angry response) is that the people they accuse have to be hiding something, covering up for some dark secret in their past, or some crime they may have committed or wanted to commit. Their anger is proof of that. That’s the only explanation your pathetically one-track, judgemental mind can conceive of Confessions.

    That is why you are acting like a complete fuckwit tonight.

  22. Golly, there’s more than a few sensitive men on here tonight, including a couple of whom I normally like to read (hint: their nom de plumes both start with a B).

    Well here’s a little advice from another old white middle-class bloke for you snowflakes – it actually isn’t about you at all. For whatever reason, the tragic murder of this young woman has touched a lot of people, and it is being seen as symbolic of the broader issue of general violence against women.

    So here’s a thought. Why don’t we all agree that this is a tragedy that shouldn’t have happened and let us all grieve and remember Eurydice and others like her, and not take it all so personally. Because, you know, it’s not about you.

  24. Try this: ‘Women want to be victims, and if that accusation doesn’t apply to you, then it is not meant for you.’

    How about this: women shouldn’t be made to feel like they’re victims, so the accusation needs to be turned back onto those who make us feel like that by raping and murdering us.

  25. Boerwar @ #718 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 9:42 pm

    confessions

    ‘If the accusations don’t apply to you, then they’re not meant for you. If you can’t do anything about the issue, no one expects you to.’

    0/10 for logic.

    Try this: ‘Women want to be victims, and if that accusation doesn’t apply to you, then it is not meant for you.’

    Oh FFS.

    This blog has reached a sad state of affairs when the discussion on Q&A shows more sensitivity, insight and intelligence than most of the commentary here tonight.

  26. Henry says:
    Monday, June 18, 2018 at 9:30 pm
    You really are an odious old fool aren’t you bemused.
    I’ll repeat again and this time you may want to put some batteries in your hearing aid – when was the last time a man was raped and murdered by a woman ?

    Henry
    I have been trying without success to work out what is the point of your question since you first posted it. Care to enlighten us?

    And how about you tone down the name calling if you want to make a serious comment, or is that all you’ve got.

  27. H

    ‘Well here’s a little advice from another old white middle-class bloke for you snowflakes – it actually isn’t about you at all. ‘

    1. It is when someone makes the sort of accusations that were made earlier.
    2. The use of the term ‘snowflake’ is, IMO, part of the problem of denigration and disrespect.

  28. adrian
    ‘If the accusations don’t apply to you, then they’re not meant for you. If you can’t do anything about the issue, no one expects you to.’
    I am pleased that you see the failure in logic now that it has been pointed out to you.

  30. Bushfire:

    It strikes me that you’ve turned up here tonight swearing, spitting and lashing out at ‘feminists’, when there have been numerous men commenters who have attacked your comments tonight, yet you choose to ignore those and focus on my comments.

    I really don’t need to say anything, your comments speak volumes for your motivations.

  31. HoJo has had his snout in the trough…

    JOE Hockey billed taxpayers almost $70,000 on booze, breakfasts and babysitters in just six months as our ambassador to the United States.

    The sacked treasurer, who took up his $360,000-a-year job in Washington in 2016, racked up bills totalling $69,770 from July to December last year and continued billing taxpayers thousands for babysitters to mind his children while he wined and dined VIPs.

    The selfie-obsessed Liberal MP-turned-diplomat justified his $3340 babysitting bill in October as “supporting Australian businesses abroad”.

    He also claimed thousands of dollars for intimate lunches and dinners which helped him “build networks and institutional links”.

    But the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade says Mr Hockey’s expense claims are within the rules and entertaining is “an important tool” to build contacts and influence.

    Mr Hockey, who once declared the “age of entitlement is over”, also charged laundry, cleaning, taxis and parking costs to the public purse.

  32. Linda Reynolds challenges Qanda to come west.

    I’ve already got an iron in that fire for them to come to Albany!!

  33. ‘Confessions says:
    Monday, June 18, 2018 at 9:45 pm

    Tim Watts making the excellent and relevant point that gender violence is the responsibility of all men.’

    He did not say that all men are responsible for gender violence. He would not because they are not. Many men are. But not all men.

    He said wtte that all men have a role in doing something about gender violence. I agree.

  34. Itemised expenditure accounts, obtained under freedom of information laws, list lunches, dinners, afternoon teas and bulk purchases of alcohol. Among the biggest bills was a $4335 dinner for 44 guests in November last year, a $3165 party for Dennis Richardson, a retiring public servant and former diplomat, and $3072 on flowers.

    The public picked up the $2660 tab for bulk alcohol and a $2535 reception for Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop when she visited in September last year.

    He also billed the taxpayer for dinners and events while visiting Australia late last year.

    Mr Hockey, who supplements his salary with a $90,000 publicly funded pension, lives rent-free in the ambassador’s heritage-listed 1940s mansion, “White Oaks”, with his self-made millionaire banker wife, Melissa Babbage, and their three children.

    As treasurer, Mr Hockey advised Australians struggling to buy their first home to “get a good job that pays good money”.

    It has been previously revealed the Hockeys hired a $46,000 housekeeper — on the taxpayer — to prepare meals, clean, wash and iron.

  35. Henry @ #717 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 9:41 pm

    You’re grasping, you’re clutching you’re embarrassing bemused.

    Not at all.
    It is rare and I only recalled that case due to the novelty of the victim being a Mormon missionary.
    I recall several cases in Australia of female teachers having sex with male students, in some cases I think under-age.
    I don’t recall a rape and murder.
    The way some people here carry on you would think the rape and murder of women was something many men were into and the streets were littered with corpses of victims.
    It is a relatively rare crime and the perpetrators come from a very small group of men.

  36. ‘Hugoaugogo says:
    Monday, June 18, 2018 at 9:50 pm

    BoerWar, my apologies. I guess it is all about you after all.’
    I accept your apology. I have never said it was all about me.
    But, to the extent that it IS about me, it is a nasty personal thing to be tarred with the brush of rape, murder and domestic violence. If you are OK with being accused of those things then that is all about you.

  38. Correct confessions. It’s on all males to take responsibility and ownership of this issue. The onus is on us men.
    Of course i and the majority of males are not responsible for the terrible acts of violence committed against women but we have a duty and responsibility to do our bit to reduce the incidence of such crimes.

  39. He said wtte that all men have a role in doing something about gender violence. I agree.

    I’ll take your word for it, but good to see common ground.

  43. Hugoaugogo @ #721 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 9:45 pm

    Golly, there’s more than a few sensitive men on here tonight, including a couple whom I normally like to read (hint: their nom de plumes both start with a B).

    Well here’s a little advice from another old white middle-class bloke for you snowflakes – it actually isn’t about you at all. For whatever reason, the tragic murder of this young woman has touched a lot of people, and it is being seen as symbolic of the broader issue of violence against women.

    So here’s a thought. Why don’t we all agree that this is a tragedy that shouldn’t have happened and let us all grieve and remember Eurydice and others like her, and not take it all so personally. Because, you know, it’s not about you.

    You know what? I haven’t seen anyone here who does not agree that ” this is a tragedy that shouldn’t have happened and let us all grieve and remember Eurydice and others like her”.
    I can’t speak for what others felt, but I can say that I too was impacted remarkably by this tragedy immediately I heard of it before any of the details were known.

    But I am not going to accept personal responsibility for the actions of ONE MAN and I don’t expect other men to do so either.

  44. Looking at some of the contributions on here just reinforces to me how absolutely fortunate I have been in meeting my wife now of over 20 years

    And this despite her occasionally having to remind me that her education and qualifications exceed mine!!

    To which I must defer

  45. Yes it’s only rape and murder bemused isn’t it. No biggie.
    Thankfully the next generation are slowly getting it, as we could see with the 15,000 at the vigil for eurodice tonight.
    Your ilk is a dying breed and we can take comfort from that.

  47. ‘Confessions says:
    Monday, June 18, 2018 at 10:00 pm

    He said wtte that all men have a role in doing something about gender violence. I agree.

    I’ll take your word for it, but good to see common ground.’

    I don’t need you to take my word for anything. What I do want you to do is to stop carelessly uses language that lumps me and all other men with rapists, murderers and domestic violence perpetrators.

  48. Bushfire Bill

    …being held responsible for the actions of every rapist and murderer in the land, no matter how distant (or non-existent) the connection, how far removed from the scene of the crime, or how little inclined we may be to commit, or to have ever committed, or to have encouraged others to commit such crimes ourselves

    The odd thing is that the same people doing so abhorred the Rwiners doing just that to Muslims.It’s a strange world.

  50. adrian @ #722 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 9:47 pm

    This blog has reached a sad state of affairs when the discussion on Q&A shows more sensitivity, insight and intelligence than most of the commentary here tonight.

    Vastly more sensitivity on this particular issue. I don’t think a single panelist suggested that the victim “should have known better” than to go walking alone at night.

    Though there was one twitter comment that flashed by with someone having a whinge about how everyone needs to “stop blaming all men”. Which I might agree with, except that most people aren’t actually doing that to begin with.

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