Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Newspoll returns after three weeks to find the situation all but totally unchanged.

One Nation are off two points on the primary vote, from 8% to 6%, but the latest Newspoll is otherwise as dull as it gets. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is unchanged at 52-48, both major parties are unchanged at 38% on the primary vote, the Greens are up one to 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 40% and 50% respectively; Bill Shorten is down one to 33% and steady on 55%. Turnbull leads 46-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 47-30 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday, presumably from a sample of about 1600.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

891 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 13 of 18
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  1. “So will you leave us alone, feminists?”

    Yeah bloody hell all these women having an opinion and expressing it, next they’ll want the vote and to be allowed to drive. FMD did we travel back to 1880?

  2. No. To look to immediate security in society as it exists NOW is ALSO a message that needs to get out. One of these messages without the other is inadequate and wrong.

    I agree with you, however for as long as women (and children) continue to outnumber men as victims of family violence, I can’t help but look at this issue as requiring an active cultural change on the part of men.

  3. To paraphrase Stalin, one white female comedians death is a tragedy, one million other people’s deaths that are not white or funny is just a statistic.

  4. Confessions says:
    Monday, June 18, 2018 at 7:30 pm
    Surely there is a message in that which should not be lost in the furore over whether they are to blame or not. Of course they are not. But they put themselves at risk when there was no need to do so and two bastards took advantage of it.

    The only acceptable message is that men need to undergo cultural change that dictates to them it is unacceptable to assault or rape a woman. Regardless of what time of the day or night it is, whether she is amongst friends, or by herself.

    Fess
    The message I was alluding to was that until the transformation of men is complete and we have a perfect world it would be sensible to encourage women not to put themselves unnecessarily in harms way.

    The two positions are not mutually exclusive.

  5. Boerwar says @ Monday, June 18, 2018 at 7:37 pm

    bc
    Vets are hugely important in US politics. There are so very, very many of them. I can’t imagine that many of them would have liked to see Trump saluting a communist officer belonging.

    Did Fox News show it? If they didn’t then I think most Trump voters probably aren’t even aware it happened.

  6. Diogenes @ #598 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 5:39 pm

    She didn’t put herself at risk any more than all the men who have been killed late at night.

    Some years ago Northbridge was in the news because of a series of late night physical assaults, mostly male on male violence and almost exclusively young men under the influence of alcohol.

    Perth PBers might have a clearer memory than me on this, but I can’t recall the prevailing sentiment at the time being that those who were attacked shouldn’t have been out and about in Northbridge, or even drinking. My recollection is the reporting and social media commentary was very much that that kind of behaviour was unacceptable and shouldn’t be happening. I’m just surprised that in 2018 a woman is raped and murdered late at night and STILL there are insinuations it’s all her fault for being out at night and by herself.

  7. BW@6:27pm
    Thanks for the video. No wonder US had such huge casualities in Korean war. They might have been in shock over the casualities after victory in WW2. They might have thought it would never happen again to US. Hence, they wanted to forget it as a bad dream. Hence, the name “forgotten war”. I read somewhere that the records of ammunations of Korean war are not kept in detail. I think Hydrogen bomb was devised by the US at the fag end of Korean war.

  8. WWP
    There is no way I would walk in a city park at night; quite happy to walk across a farm; unless some drip is out shooting. Man is the top predator.

    Been looking at statistics; the Australian suicide rate for men is 2.75 times that of women; the rate for men is about 15 per 100000. When you consider the rate for homicide is 1 to 100000, and death by car is 4 in 100000 it is a pretty amazing statistic.

    Exam question: If women drive men to suicide; at what rate does this happen for women to be be more responsible for male deaths than men for women deaths. I get about 1 in 30 suicides if no man drives a women to suicide.

    China is interesting; one of two countries with a higher women suicide rate and there are more men than women; you could argue that this is proof that women drive men to suicide; less women less male suicide.

    My wife has just read this post; she is not impressed!!!!!

  9. “I can’t help but look at this issue as requiring an active cultural change on the part of men.”

    Not disagreeing fess, but there is an awful lot out there at the moment that is pushing buttons for men (who dont and wouldn’t bash, rape or murder) in terms of being blamed, being told, and to an extent getting slapped down when they express an opinion. And all on the basis that its “mainly men” who do so.

    And there will ALWAYS be people with entrenched fixed ideas who will go the nasty on anyone not fully agreeing with their viewpoint.

    I think if we want societal change the conversation has to happen in a sustained fashion. But i have concerns about the polarising way some are going about it and how that makes reasonable people switch off to it. Its an important issue and should not become background noise.

  10. Darn:

    I take a slightly different view. That being why shouldn’t a woman in country like Australia be free and safe to move about in the public realm at any time of the day or night? We don’t have civil war in this country. We aren’t being bombed by outside or internal forces like other countries. We don’t have militia roaming the streets. Our gun laws are the envy of many other nations. Anyone who chooses to wander around wherever they choose to wander should not be at risk of being raped, assaulted or murdered.

  11. imacca

    ‘I think if we want societal change the conversation has to happen in a sustained fashion. ‘

    Sorry, what are you saying here? That we have to get used to the idea that women will be murdered, and if we reduce the numbers gradually, then people will come to accept that it’s not a good idea to murder women and not murdering women will become socially acceptable??

  12. Confessions @ #611 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 7:58 pm

    Darn:

    I take a slightly different view. That being why shouldn’t a woman in country like Australia be free and safe to move about in the public realm at any time of the day or night? We don’t have civil war in this country. We aren’t being bombed by outside or internal forces like other countries. We don’t have militia roaming the streets. Our gun laws are the envy of many other nations. Anyone who chooses to wander around wherever they choose to wander should not be at risk of being raped, assaulted or murdered.

    But, unfortunately there are predators. This is what has happened with Ms dixon.

  13. Bushfire Bill – please read what you posted

    Surely men can just take a moment and say what can i change and not be so agressive about all men etc etc .

    As soon as this horrific murder occurred i knew the conversation would be about poor men yep that is what is about.

    Thought we are better than this, should not have thought so.

  14. Confessions @ #589 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 7:30 pm

    Surely there is a message in that which should not be lost in the furore over whether they are to blame or not. Of course they are not. But they put themselves at risk when there was no need to do so and two bastards took advantage of it.

    The only acceptable message is that men need to undergo cultural change that dictates to them it is unacceptable to assault or rape a woman. Regardless of what time of the day or night it is, whether she is amongst friends, or by herself.

    Earth to confessions…
    The overwhelming majority of men know it is wrong to commit assault, rape or murder, have never done either and never will.
    Transmission ends.

  15. zoomster says:
    Monday, June 18, 2018 at 7:57 pm
    ‘If women drive men to suicide..’

    I’m sorry, what? Aren’t men responsible for anything now?

    Zoom
    I think it was said tongue in cheek. That’s how i interpreted it anyway.

  16. It just means that the world has always been this way and words aren’t going change it, no matter how good intentioned they are from men or women.

  17. “Exam question: If women drive men to suicide; at what rate does this happen for women to be be more responsible for male deaths than men for women deaths. I get about 1 in 30 suicides if no man drives a women to suicide.”

    I think I’m going to reject the premise of the question.

    Clearly suicide prevention, like the murder of women by their partners are things we should be investing money in understand and preventing.

    We just shouldn’t be going “omg she walked in a park how f*cking stupid is that and would those feminists who are sick of seeing other women killed by men just shutup it is upsetting my evening.” Don’t be either of those people, those people are not good people. If you are in no way involved in or related to, or even know of anyone who has ever committed any crime against a women (after I assume you’ve lived alone in a cave for the last 30 years) I’m going to suggest in that very very unlikely set of circumstances it is perhaps best you realise this isn’t about you at all, and well you know nothing at all about it, and well perhaps best to keep that a secret rather than telling everyone.

    And frankly you might not think you are saying ‘how stupid is that’ but if you are going on and on about how dangerous the really low risk involved in walking in a park is (yes even in that dangerous town Melbourne) then you are blaming the victim. Don’t blame the victim that isn’t cool.

  18. Dixon knew there was a risk. Her friends told her so. That’s why she texted them to say she was OK, reportedly every night.

    I doubt whether her attacker had any knowledge of her movements or the position on walking home alone at night that she took.

    It may have been a statement. It may have been bravado. It may just have been walking home at night without any complicated thinking on the subject at all. She may have just wished to save on cab fares.

    We will probably never know the full story. She’s dead, so she can’t tell us why, for sure.

    But you’d think that if she survived the attack with just a bad fright, she’d be telling everyone now that she was wrong to do that trip home alone. She’d be advising others to always be accompanied, to take a cab, or get a friend to pick them up after work.

    Theory is a wonderful thing, but I have little doubt that Eurydice Dixon would not be extolling the safety and virtues of Brunswick after dark if she had survived the attack. She would be warning others.

    For myself, when I lived in Sydney there were no-go areas that I would never frequent, or even pass through on foot. Yeah sure, that shouldn’t have been the case. I shouldn’t have needed to exercise caution. But I did.

    I’m not gay, not a woman, not in any way remarkable compared to anyone else, therefore unlikely to be singled out as in any way bashable or attackable, or an otherwise obvious target. But there are some adventures that it’s just not worth taking the risk for. There’s enough risk in life without taking on the extra. No-one will thank you for your stand against violence after you’ve been murdered.

    At those memorials for the poor young woman, there will be many women. They will be be rightfull full of anger and rage. But I’d be willing to take bets that none of them will ever walk home alone through that park (or anywhere near it) again, no matter what they say about having the right to do so, or about the male gender that they are being told is out en masse, to rape and kill them.

    It’s an awful thing, not being able to use certain streets or precincts; not to be able to take a convenient shortcut through a dimly lit part of town. But it’s a reality we all need to face if we live in cities. Precautions need to be taken. You’re only as safe as your last text message says you were.

  19. Confessions @ #611 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 7:58 pm

    Darn:

    I take a slightly different view. That being why shouldn’t a woman in country like Australia be free and safe to move about in the public realm at any time of the day or night? We don’t have civil war in this country. We aren’t being bombed by outside or internal forces like other countries. We don’t have militia roaming the streets. Our gun laws are the envy of many other nations. Anyone who chooses to wander around wherever they choose to wander should not be at risk of being raped, assaulted or murdered.

    Well said.

  20. Our great PM will lead our great LNP to victory in Longman Braddon mayo and just like John Howard did in 1998 2001 and 2004 win the next election from being behind in the polls and I know they will do it……

    Only the LNP will keep the budget surplus and make sure we don’t go back into debt and deficits discaster which the ALP did

  21. The Libs must be worried in Queensland with the Financial Review damming the State Government for borrowing to “build monuments in health and education”

  22. What is wrong with Victorian Police Minister Lisa Nevilles neck ? Is it an illness or is it just fat ?
    She looks terrible.


  23. zoomster says:
    Monday, June 18, 2018 at 7:57 pm

    ‘If women drive men to suicide..’

    I’m sorry, what? Aren’t men responsible for anything now?

    Another exam question: If an equal number of men and women drive their partner to suicide; how many partner related suicides need there be to get equality in the male/female cause of death statistics.

    About 1 in 6 is my answer.

    And then there is the essay question: Which is worse physical or emotional violence; discuss.

  24. Bushfire Bill @ #621 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 8:04 pm

    Dixon knew there was a risk. Her friends told her so. That’s why she texted them to say she was OK, reportedly every night.

    I doubt whether her attacker had any knowledge of her movements or the position on walking home alone at night that she took.

    It may have been a statement. It may have been bravado. It may just have been walking home at night without any complicated thinking on the subject at all. She may have just wished to save on cab fares.

    We will probably never know the full story. She’s dead, so she can’t tell us why, for sure.

    But you’d think that if she survived the attack with just a bad fright, she’d be telling everyone now that she was wrong to do that trip home alone. She’d be advising others to always be accompanied, to take a cab, or get a friend to pick them up after work.

    Theory is a wonderful thing, but I have little doubt that Eurydice Dixon would not be extolling the safety and virtues of Brunswick after dark if she had survived the attack. She would be warning others.

    For myself, when I lived in Sydney there were no-go areas that I would never frequent, or even pass through on foot. Yeah sure, that shouldn’t have been the case. I shouldn’t have needed to exercise caution. But I did.

    I’m not gay, not a woman, not in any way remarkable compared to anyone else, therefore unlikely to be singled out as in any way bashable or attackable, or an otherwise obvious target. But there are some adventures that it’s just not worth taking the risk for. There’s enough risk in life without taking on the extra. No-one will thank you for your stand against violence after you’ve been murdered.

    At those memorials for the poor young woman, there will be many women. They will be be rightfull full of anger and rage. But I’d be willing to take bets that none of them will ever walk home alone through that park (or anywhere near it) again, no matter what they say about having the right to do so, or about the male gender that they are being told is out en masse, to rape and kill them.

    It’s an awful thing, not being able to use certain streets or precincts; not to be able to take a convenient shortcut through a dimly lit part of town. But it’s a reality we all need to face if we live in cities. Precautions need to be taken. You’re only as safe as your last text message says you were.

    Please settle down.

    The info I have is that the stalker followed her from the city for about 5k.

  25. imacca:

    You’ve just seen from Bushfire Bill’s outburst what happens when women speak out about sexual violence against us – his reaction is an almost textbook response from men.

    And this is precisely why the issue of violence against women needs to be led by men; the peer thing has been shown to be effective in other areas, so why not violence against women?

  26. Confessions

    It is easy to say the solution is to change the culture. Jenna Price in Fairfax says the same. But precisely, what are the specific measures that will actually effect such change? Education is obviously key, but again, how exactly?

  27. bemused @ #619 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 8:03 pm

    Confessions @ #592 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 7:31 pm

    Has Turnbull been asked at all about the white Sth African farmer visas? Or has this flown under radar because everyone is distracted by the supposed ABC privatisation?

    You idiot! It has been explained to you numerous times that that motion was defeated.

    Actually it wasn’t. What was defeated was an amendment to change the weasel words “South African minorities” in the original motion to something like “European farmers”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/15/special-visas-for-white-south-african-farmers-on-agenda-for-liberal-council-meeting

  28. SCOUT:

    Surely men can just take a moment and say what can i change and not be so agressive about all men etc etc .

    There is NOTHING I can do to save Eurydice Dixon. Apart from my grandsons, I have no-one to advise. And they would never do what was done to that lady, to the best of my knowledge and confidence.

    To be upset about being continually lumped in with “men”, who apparently have some kind of “message” they can impart to other “men” is not aggression. It’s, in my opinion, justified frustration that women can’t get past the fact that there are bad people out there, individuals all, to\\with whom no amount of mentoring or lecturing will work.

    What would you have “men” do? Walk around town at night with a sandwich board?

    We try our best, but in the end, short of her friends shouting Eurydice Dixon a cab between them (which must have been eminently possible) I can’t think of anything that any man I know could have done about the situation.

    One thing’s for sure, I am completely over being assigned blame or responsibility for Dixon’s death simply for having the unfortunate luck of being born with a Y chromosome.

  29. Just in time for the SmearStralian to,publish an apology on the front page tomorrow

    Surely you jest!! 😆

    That said, the PBO could just save paras 2, 3 and 5 and rinse and repeat for every Labor policy costed between now and the next election .

  30. Darn:

    I take a slightly different view. That being why shouldn’t a woman in country like Australia be free and safe to move about in the public realm at any time of the day or night?

    Actually Fess, you and I have exactly the same view on that. I agree wholeheartedly – and the same should apply to men also (and children of course).

    But the key word is “should’. Unfortunately we still seem to be a long way from that ideal and in the meantime we all have to take whatever precautions are necessary to protect ourselves.

  31. bemused @ #619 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 8:03 pm

    Confessions @ #592 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 7:31 pm

    Has Turnbull been asked at all about the white Sth African farmer visas? Or has this flown under radar because everyone is distracted by the supposed ABC privatisation?

    You idiot! It has been explained to you numerous times that that motion was defeated.

    You’re the friggin’ idiot. Everyone knows confessions wisely has you blocked, yet your obsession drives you to address her in continually disparaging terms, even though you know she won’t read it.

    What a weirdo.

  32. I’m surprised not more of you responded to the question about Luke Foley.

    C@t, yes I understand, but I’d still like a serious answer to who would replace Jodi McKay as shadow transport.

  33. Confessions:

    You’ve just seen from Bushfire Bill’s outburst what happens when women speak out about sexual violence against us – his reaction is an almost textbook response from men.

    Pray tell me just what I am supposed to do?

  34. Maybe a start would be funding more prevention ( and from reading this blog education) and sexual assault / domestic assault services than funding for a James Cook memorial

  35. Maybe a start would be funding more prevention ( and from reading this blog education) and sexual assault / domestic assault services than funding for a James Cook memorial

    Please tell the men on this blog specifically how they are supposed to organise these reforms?

  36. Anyone, can we see PBO report on Labor’s dividend policy? It seems that the bulk of the “savings” will not be coming from SMF retirees, who will change their investments. But they were precisely the ones, perceived as well-off, who the policy were to get. So I guess the money is coming from the Mums and Dads less sophisticated investor.

  37. Actually it wasn’t. What was defeated was an amendment to change the weasel words “South African minorities” in the original motion to something like “European farmers”

    Yep, something that is perfectly obvious if that actual article is read. But a salutary lesson for bemused that the headlines don’t tell the whole story, and you have to actually read the article.

  38. SCOUT @ #642 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 8:16 pm

    Maybe a start would be funding more prevention ( and from reading this blog education) and sexual assault / domestic assault services than funding for a James Cook memorial

    It was fairly apparent from the outset that your agenda was to widen the discussion from the tragic death of Ms Dixon. This post shows you were only interested in using the discussion for other reasons.

    Hope you are proud of yourself!

  39. Yassmin Abdel-Magied just retweeted a tweet quoting Victorian Commissioner saying that Victorian police are responding to a family violence call EVERY 7 minutes. Almost all by men.

    Then you get to add in the many many sufferers of family violence that don’t report at all.

    I think that does me, it has been fun.

    As the women on My Favorite Murder say, ‘stay sexy don’t get murdered’.

  40. ajm @ #634 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 8:12 pm

    bemused @ #619 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 8:03 pm

    Confessions @ #592 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 7:31 pm

    Has Turnbull been asked at all about the white Sth African farmer visas? Or has this flown under radar because everyone is distracted by the supposed ABC privatisation?

    You idiot! It has been explained to you numerous times that that motion was defeated.

    Actually it wasn’t. What was defeated was an amendment to change the weasel words “South African minorities” in the original motion to something like “European farmers”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/15/special-visas-for-white-south-african-farmers-on-agenda-for-liberal-council-meeting

    OK, I didn’t want to make it too complicated for confessions for obvious reasons, but you are correct.

    Here is what the Guardian reported.

    “Liberal party members who attempted to have white South African farmers singled out for special treatment when applying for asylum in Australia have been defeated after an emotional interjection from a former immigration minister.

    In a policy motion put forward to the federal council, where members attempt to influence Coalition policy, they attempted to amend a motion changing “South African minorities targeted by hate crimes” to “European farmers”, to ensure white farmers were given particular attention.

    But after a flurry of debate, Philip Ruddock addressed the crowd, saying singling out whites for special humanitarian visa attention went against what Australia stood for.”

    Which was widely taken to men no special treatment for white South African farmers and reported as such.

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