We are having one of the poll-free weeks that have occasionally bedevilled us since Essential Research moved from weekly to fortnightly, with Newspoll having one of its occasional three-week gaps so its next poll coincides with the resumption of parliament. So here’s some random bits of electoral news:
• A polling nugget I forgot to relate a fortnight ago: according to a report by Nick Butterly of The West Australian, a Labor internal poll recorded a neck-and-neck result in the Perth seat of Stirling, which Michael Keenan holds for the Liberals by a margin of 6.1%. After excluding the 10.8% undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 40.2% (49.5% in 2016), Labor 37.6% (32.2%), Greens 9.0% (11.7%) and One Nation 5.3%. The poll was conducted by Community Engagement from a large sample of 1735.
• Gareth Parker in the Sunday Times reports that Matt O’Sullivan, who ran unsuccessfully in the lower house seat of Burt at the 2016 election, has narrowly won preselection for the third position on the Liberals’ Western Australian Senate ticket, behind incumbents Linda Reynolds and Slade Brockman. O’Sullivan emerged with 56 votes to 54 for Trish Botha, co-founder with her husband of an evangelical church in Perth’s northern suburbs. The closeness of the result surprised party observers, especially given Christian conservative numbers man Nick Goiran backed O’Sullivan. As Gareth Parker noted in his weekly column, Botha appears to have attracted support from “non God-botherers” opposed to Goiran’s alliance with Mathias Cormann and Peter Collier, who may not have been aware of the messianic language employed by Botha’s church.
• Katy Gallagher has announced she will seek preselection to recover the Australian Capital Territory Senate seat from which she was disqualified last month over Section 44 complications, after speculation she might instead seek the territory’s newly created third lower house seat. However, it appears she will face opposition from the newly anointed successor to her Senate seat, David Smith, former local director of Professionals Australia.
• As for the lower house situation in the Australian Capital Territory, Andrew Leigh will remain in Fenner and Gai Brodtmann will go from Canberra to the nominally new seat of Bean, leaving a vacancy available in Canberra. Smith appears set to run if he loses the Senate preselection to Gallagher; Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports he will be opposed by Kel Watt, a lobbyist who has lately made a name for himself campaigning against the territory Labor government’s ban on greyhound racing. Other potential starters include John Falzon, chief executive of the St Vincent de Paul Society; Jacob Ingram, a staffer to Chief Minister Andrew Barr; and Jacob White, a staffer to Andrew Leigh.
• Occasional Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has launched his own website of local and international election and polling news.
Sonar, I think the ON song list has been overtaken by the Dutton marching band.
Dutton has criminalised the outsider while placing everyone else under suspicion. In the bad old days State police all had Special Branches. They were abolished but he has reconstructed them federally. He is a thug.
Sonar
Same was said about homophobic voters on Marriage Equality.
I think like that its over hyped.
Sally McManus called it. Its the visa system.
Australians had a visceral reaction to the drownings at sea because they saw it on their televisions.
Understandably so.
Labor is right to promise to not repeat that. I understand thats the core of the reason for their policies and its why I can accept them.
I do not however blame the Greens for those deaths. I do not blame Labor for them. Foreknowledge of an AS boat going down with tragic deaths with television able to show it but navy or other rescue vessels not able to get their in time is not something I expect a government to have where its unreasonable.
Acting after the fact is what I expect people to do. Labor changed its policy after the fact.
The Greens did not.
The Greens reasoning is that any inquiry should have been why did the media get there so quick but rescuers could not? That and the very real realisation that where the AS leave from is more dangerous than the risk of drowning at sea.
For AS the calculation is like the one we do every day we go out in the car. There is a risk of death but it won’t stop you driving.
Thats why I accept Labor’s policy. Its an honest policy in reaction to what happened. I also accept the Greens reasoning as well.
I can accept both and accept Labor for tactical reasons is going with the visceral reaction just like we do with a self driving car having one accident compared to the death toll of every day with humans at the wheel.
The politics rules. Recognising this is recognising facts not putting spin on things.
The only question is how strong is that xenophobia that other Australians don’t have. How long before that exploitation gets challenged.
How long do we let the visceral deaths on television overlook and excuse the deaths and injuries that our government is directly responsible for?
As I have said compare and contrast the media coverage in the US to here on immigration.
Be tactical and smart before government for sure. However do not let the LNP use drownings at sea as an excuse for the actions their policy is directly responsible for as Katherine Murphy outlined in the post above.
Keep letting the LNP use drowning at sea as an excuse lets them spin their exploitation of xenophobia.
Instead call it out. Be strong in doing so.
As I have said previously Labor can say they want people smugglers punished by the law. We don’t need to kill people to stop the business model.
Damon Young
Verified account @damonayoung
3h3 hours ago
Damon Young Retweeted Josh Taylor
Flying a Nazi flag is just “skylarking”. Is this the same Piers Akerman who called Yassmin Abdel-Magied’s ANZAC Day comments “extremely offensive” & called for her sacking from the ABC?
bemused @ #1489 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 12:28 pm
…meanwhile people are tortured and people are dying as Liberals simply watch on and Labor cravenly look away
Rex Douglas @ #1504 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 12:58 pm
There you go Rex, fixed it for you.
The LNP policy amounts to hostage-taking. Furthermore, they have made Australians into a nation of gaolers. This is hard to reconcile ourselves to. But it is what has happened. We are all in a sense hostages of the LNP. We have to defeat them and create change – free ourselves from the baleful effects of LNP rule. This is a necessity and it’s coming.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jun/16/leave-eu-russia-arron-banks-andy-wigmore?CMP=share_btn_tw
Dan Gulberry @ #1500 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 12:43 pm
Smart guy, the Prof. He looks for underlying causes and eventual consequences. He describes them clearly. The Liberal Party is a front for the IPA.
lizzie @ #1508 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 1:04 pm
I learnt during the week that the Cormack Foundation donates to both IPA and CIS. This emerged out of the litigation between it and the Vic Libs.
Briefly
Yes we are hostage to the extremist LNP.
The problem is the media is not calling them out for the extremists they are.
This is the problem with the lack of diversity in our media and not having Canada’s truth in media laws.
This reality is why I am voting Labor. I see Labor as stopping the acceptance of extremism.
I do believe Labor will reduct inequality with Bill Shorten as Prime Minister.
I do believe deaths and torture in off shore detention will stop under Labor because they don’t see people fleeing persecution as “deterrents”. The turn back policy by itself destroys the people smugglers business model you don’t need to torture and kill people to achieve that with indefinite detention.
Labor can have this policy and be strong attacking the LNP . Even while the Greens can be strong on opposing off shore policy. What Labor and the Greens have in common is both support the comments and reports of Professor Gillian Triggs when she was in charge of the Human Rights into this.
All that has changed is the damage gets worse the longer the detention happens.
briefly @ #1510 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 1:10 pm
The real issue is who the IPA is a front for!
TPOF @ #1513 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 1:15 pm
No mystery there. You only have to read their own material.
The Liberal Party is in essence the political arm of the IPA.
Good point TPOF. Good to see you, too.
“The real issue is who the IPA is a front for!”
That would have to be the ‘self-serving, callous oligarchy’, as Prof. Doherty identifies them.
The Silver Bodgie @ #1509 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 1:08 pm
Blessed are the cheese eaters!
The image of Australian personnel flying the Nazi flag is very troubling, as is the willingness to downplay it; to characterise it as skylarking. Warfare is not skylarking. It is about the organised use of lethal force; licenced killing.
Imagine the cries if the flag had been the ISIS banner or the Soviet Union’s….
Guilty conscience on your part perhaps. This blindness to the Greens policy position from before the Tampa to today is Labor’s failing.
Its blame the Greens for sticking to their policy and come up with all excuses in the world not to blame the LNP.
guytaur,
Please try and restrain yourself from substance-free slurs such as I have a ‘guilty conscience’. How can I, when I have been advocating for Labor to have a humane asylum seeker policy which takes account of the loss of life at sea (and, no, you can’t ascribe all loss of life at sea to the fact that the Navy couldn’t get to the asylum seekers in time to save them as many of them lost their lives in stormy seas, plus the Navy cannot be everywhere all at once), for almost two decades, both in the Labor Party and here on PB. I have a guilty conscience? My conscience is clear.
Australia needs a rational, humane and pragmatic asylum seeker policy. It is only the Labor Party who are striving for that outcome.
What is with the cartoon emu and kangaroo on Palmer’s billboards? It looks like he’s trying to appeal to children.
Confessions says:
Sunday, June 17, 2018 at 1:39 pm
What is with the cartoon emu and kangaroo on Palmer’s billboards? It looks like he’s trying to appeal to children.
They are references to the coat of arms….flag in the background too…
If Palmer is running signs in Kenmore I suspect he is planning to tap into the disgruntled Prentice voters.
There is a Palmer billboard on the corner of Parramatta Rd and New Canterbury Road. possibly the ugliest intersection of the ugliest road in Australia.
briefly:
Well yes, I get that it’s referring to the coat of arms. But as cartoon characters?
I noticed that too, ‘Fess!
My first thought was, why does the emu have lions’ paws?
OC:
Is it this billboard?
Maybe he can’t use the actual Coat of Arms…
And the kangaroo has a joey in its pouch whose head is almost the same size as the adult roo!
The Commonwealth Coat of Arms is the formal symbol of the Commonwealth of Australia that signifies Commonwealth authority and ownership. The Arms are used by Australian Government departments and agencies, statutory and non-statutory authorities, the Parliament and Commonwealth courts and tribunals. Senators and Federal Members of the Australian Parliament may also use the Arms in the course of their duties as Parliamentarians.[2] The coat of arms should never be used where it could wrongly imply a formal guarantee, sponsorship or endorsement by the Commonwealth.[10] Use of the arms by private citizens or organisations is rarely permitted; however, there are provisions for use by sporting bodies and in educational publications. Use of the coat of arms without permission may be in breach of Sections 53 (c) (d) and (e) of the Trade Practices Act 1974, Section 145.1 of the Criminal Code Act 1995 or Section 39(2) of the Trade Marks Act 1995.[11] The import of goods bearing the arms is also illegal according to the Customs (Prohibited Imports) Regulations.
LU not logged in @ #1525 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 1:55 pm
it’s a hangover from “The Americas Cup” where the ‘Boxing emu” became an Australian iconic image!
Age reporting on the Shorten presser. Already getting stuck into the Save the ABC campaign
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/they-will-sell-off-shorten-moves-to-make-abc-an-election-issue-20180617-p4zlz1.html
It looks like clip-art from MS Office 95.
briefly:
If I were spending money on billboards around the country to promote my MAG message I’d just stick with the Australian flag and leave the cartoonish images out of it.
Cat
Comments like ONLY the Labor party is striving for pragmatic sane reasonable policy on Asylum Seekers is where you go wrong.
The Greens policy is also pragmatic sane and reasonable.
It has been from the start.
The only argument is about the pragmatic. The Greens argue on shore is pragmatic using the example of the Vietnamese Boat people.
You don’t have to agree this can be repeated but it was pragmatic sane reasonable policy by Frasser with the vital support of Whitlam.
So when you go blaming the Greens for deaths at sea because they voted for their policy and not Labor’s on Malaysia yes I see guiltily conscience because its the only explanation I can see for the illogical blaming the Greens for staying with their policy and not blaming the LNP for theirs.
The kangaroo and the emu look slightly “bemused”, probably wondering what happened to the shield.
Confessions @ #1533 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 2:03 pm
Especially the one in the middle!
P1:
😆
Fess
that’s the one
If we are blaming deaths at sea on politicians or parties, top of the list are Tony Abbott and the Coalition parties for blocking a potentially viable solution because they didn’t want the boats to stop on Labor’s watch.
briefly @ #1518 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 1:34 pm
Maybe things are diferent in the West, but I have not seen it downplayed at all. Quite the opposite in fact from ADF top brass and Ministers.
Confessions says:
Sunday, June 17, 2018 at 2:03 pm
briefly:
If I were spending money on billboards around the country to promote my MAG message I’d just stick with the Australian flag and leave the cartoonish images out of it.
Yes. It must say something about the demographic he’s aiming to reach and the values he’s trying to project. It seems almost deliberately naive. It is the opposite of slick. Clunky. Maybe it’s meant to be outsider-marketing. Even beginner-marketing.
Call this conspiracy!!
Probably is!!!!
But, in my view anyway, the Liberal Party saying they are re-connected with their ideals and their base is worthy of analysis.
In a narrow band stretching to the east and outer east of Melbourne the Liberals hold seats where the socioeconomic circumstances of those populations would say the seats should be Labor.
But they are solid Liberal.
They are more so solid Liberal seats with the demise of Family First – because it was in these suburbs that Family First flourished – the seemingly pious god botherer’s
What we see are the evangelistic churches, huge complexes on freehold land and where preschool facilities are on offer. There is no specific mention of religion, but around the walls are books, all with the same presentation, “God made ……….”
So babies, the sun coming up, the grass being green and the list goes on and on.
Indoctrination.
They use these facilities to increase their base – “Come to our Church and bring your husband and your other children”
Also, what we see are sporting complexes, costing many millions (introduced and funded by the Federal Government – but the small print says also the State and Local government) where the number of Netball Courts is reduced from 12 outdoor Courts to 4 Indoor Courts and 4 Outdoor Courts, so reducing public amenity.
The complex does not host any team, it is used by an Association who run a competition which sees significant traffic flow into the area on Saturdays with girls of all ages playing.
But they are all Church affiliated sides.
Not suburban.
This is the stronghold of Sukkar who with Bastiaan has recruited to take control of the Liberal Party in Victoria, a Party so seriously divided as the Cormack matter and the ongoing feuds between Kennett, Costello and Stockdale are indicative of.
The “old guard” versus the “new guard”.
Where the State President and the State Parliamentary leader are subservient to retain their jobs (and probably Turnbull).
Sukkar and Bastiaan control because of who they have recruited and who they represent to cement their numbers – the far right conservative, evangelist constituency which is being added to as it is, by engaging and offering a social network – and, of course, you donate money.
And going to Church means your girls get to play Netball at a brand new Stadium, except the number of Courts has been reduced by 33% to accommodate the Administration, which is where the Liberal Party corflutes are housed and Liberal candidates engage
That is what is happening.
And they are confident
Steve777 @ #1535 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 2:04 pm
I am pleased by my absence! 😛
bemused
I think briefly is right about the flag.
The fact the media have let it die in coverage so quickly is the downplaying. Only possible due to the Government also saying its wrong.
Where I think briefly is overdoing it is that there is an inquiry happening and more media coverage will happen when the results are released and we get names of people being dishonourably discharged if thats an Australian term. With the Americanisation of our language I am not sure we dishonourable discharges.
Observer,
Sounds like it’s a client democracy.
Palmer probably has very little money, so odd-ball imagery might help raise attention…..perhaps he wants to be “seen” as an amateur…a contrast to the “professionals”….
There’s no doubt the visual branding on the Right is all over the place. It is way less solid than Labor’s.
Mr Frydenberg told Sky News the Liberal Party members were entitled to be frustrated with the ABC but that did not mean it would be sold.
Obviously only the LNP are entitled to be frustrated with the ABC – it is just not on that the ALP should be frustrated for other/opposing reasons. In fact the LNP act as though the ALP has no right to have an opinion at all.
guytaur @ #1544 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 2:15 pm
The media quickly moves on to the next issue.
That’s the way they operate.
If the IPA get much of their funding from overseas (say the Koch brothers) do they now have to declare it under the new rules about overseas influence in Australian politics? Up to now they have been very secretive about their sources of funding.
Bemused
Nah not really. I only have to mention two words to give you a contrast. Pink Batts.
Not saying this is the same but don’t be fooled the media chooses at times to favour the government by moving quickly on. When if Labor was in power they would not.