Mid-week miscellany

Federal electoral news nuggets, sourced from Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory.

We are having one of the poll-free weeks that have occasionally bedevilled us since Essential Research moved from weekly to fortnightly, with Newspoll having one of its occasional three-week gaps so its next poll coincides with the resumption of parliament. So here’s some random bits of electoral news:

• A polling nugget I forgot to relate a fortnight ago: according to a report by Nick Butterly of The West Australian, a Labor internal poll recorded a neck-and-neck result in the Perth seat of Stirling, which Michael Keenan holds for the Liberals by a margin of 6.1%. After excluding the 10.8% undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 40.2% (49.5% in 2016), Labor 37.6% (32.2%), Greens 9.0% (11.7%) and One Nation 5.3%. The poll was conducted by Community Engagement from a large sample of 1735.

• Gareth Parker in the Sunday Times reports that Matt O’Sullivan, who ran unsuccessfully in the lower house seat of Burt at the 2016 election, has narrowly won preselection for the third position on the Liberals’ Western Australian Senate ticket, behind incumbents Linda Reynolds and Slade Brockman. O’Sullivan emerged with 56 votes to 54 for Trish Botha, co-founder with her husband of an evangelical church in Perth’s northern suburbs. The closeness of the result surprised party observers, especially given Christian conservative numbers man Nick Goiran backed O’Sullivan. As Gareth Parker noted in his weekly column, Botha appears to have attracted support from “non God-botherers” opposed to Goiran’s alliance with Mathias Cormann and Peter Collier, who may not have been aware of the messianic language employed by Botha’s church.

• Katy Gallagher has announced she will seek preselection to recover the Australian Capital Territory Senate seat from which she was disqualified last month over Section 44 complications, after speculation she might instead seek the territory’s newly created third lower house seat. However, it appears she will face opposition from the newly anointed successor to her Senate seat, David Smith, former local director of Professionals Australia.

• As for the lower house situation in the Australian Capital Territory, Andrew Leigh will remain in Fenner and Gai Brodtmann will go from Canberra to the nominally new seat of Bean, leaving a vacancy available in Canberra. Smith appears set to run if he loses the Senate preselection to Gallagher; Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports he will be opposed by Kel Watt, a lobbyist who has lately made a name for himself campaigning against the territory Labor government’s ban on greyhound racing. Other potential starters include John Falzon, chief executive of the St Vincent de Paul Society; Jacob Ingram, a staffer to Chief Minister Andrew Barr; and Jacob White, a staffer to Andrew Leigh.

• Occasional Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has launched his own website of local and international election and polling news.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,992 comments on “Mid-week miscellany”

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  1. The garage man.

    As others have pointed out the 3.5 percent minimum wage increase would be unlikely to apply to his workers.

    Exactly.

  2. Itzadream

    Confession is a means to excuse bad behaviour. From Monday to Saturday someone can rape, pillage, murder and be all round norty because on Sunday you get forgiven for everything and can do it all again the following Monday to Saturday. Repeat ad infinitum.

    And yes, I have been extreme to illustrate the point.

    What happens though if you get absolved of your “sins” by the church but on judgement day, God decides your absolved actions preclude you from entering heaven? Can you sue the Church? God? Is there an appeals process? Does the priest who absolved you get a fine for providing bad absolutions? Does he face a temporary or permanent ban on hearing confessions? Is there an appeal process for him?

    Starting to see how ridiculous these Medieval practices based on Dark Ages interpretations of the myths and legends of Bronze Age goat herders are?

    Convert to Pastafarianism and worship the one true supreme being of the universe – The Flying Spaghetti Monster. You know it makes sense.

  3. Sorta what we already thought… Confirms RW desire to stomp on ABC, too.

    [The study finds that Australian viewers of commercial TV networks and the subscription channel Sky News are more right-leaning than the ABC television audience, which attracts viewers evenly from across the political spectrum.

    The report notes strong partisan identification by Australian news consumers with particular news brands, with rightwingers more likely to read the Australian and watch their nightly TV news on the Nine or Seven networks, and leftwingers more likely to read Fairfax newspapers and watch SBS.

    Australian news consumers who identify as leftwing have the highest interest in news and access it most often. In the online news world, outlets including Guardian Australia and BuzzFeed “attract strong leftwing audiences” but the online offerings news.com.au and Yahoo7 skew right.

    The ABC audience is mixed picture. Consumers of the ABC TV news come from all sides of the political divide but the national broadcaster’s online news service “attracts a heavily leftwing audience”.]

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/jun/14/australian-media-consumers-more-polarised-than-the-global-average

  4. ItzaDream @ #421 Thursday, June 14th, 2018 – 11:25 am

    The whole practice of ‘confession’ is bollocks.

    If I understand it correctly, the basic tenet is that the confessor if the agent of (a) God, and acting for (the) God, dispenses forgiveness, imposes a penalty, and thereby the soul of the penitent is cleansed.

    What God needs a agent? It is a medieval power play by a Church to self impose relevance where none is necessary.

    And that’s without looking at just what ‘sin” is, let alone ‘forgiveness’.

    Didn’t that old ratbag Martin Luther have something to say about this? That caused a bit of kerfuffle if I recall – 100 year wars, defenestration and a Diet of Worms.

  5. Boris

    your point about Governments living in the moment is well made.

    Howard and Costello certainly did that. Just like those FIFO workers they blew the money on tax cuts and middle class welfare and sowed the seeds for many of our present day budget problems.

  6. ItzaDream @ #74 Thursday, June 14th, 2018 – 11:25 am

    If I understand it correctly, the basic tenet is that the confessor if the agent of (a) God, and acting for (the) God, dispenses forgiveness, imposes a penalty, and thereby the soul of the penitent is cleansed.

    No, no, that’s not how it works. The way it works is that the penitent needs quick and easy psychological validation of their misdeeds so they can feel better about themselves. And the confessor needs dirt on their congregation to ensure that troublemakers can be kept in line.

    The basic tenet is that the Church gains power and leverage and churchgoers gain the freedom of not having to actually follow the rules set by their religion.

  7. The premise of the confession is the existence of sin, a concomitant of shame. We should abolish the very idea of sin. It is a nonsensical category. There is no god and therefore there can be no offence the deity. Repeal sin. Abolish the confessional ritual.

  10. C@t

    quite a few famous Peregrines, starting with an early saint.

    St. Peregrine the martyr was an early Christian martyr who died because he and others refused to worship the Roman Emperor Commodus on his birthday.

    and another: Saint Peregrine Laziosi (Pellegrino Latiosi) (c. 1260 – 1 May 1345) is an Italian saint of the Servite Order (Friar Order Servants of Mary). He is the patron saint for persons suffering from cancer, AIDS, or other illness.

    But I doubt journalist would ever be considered for sainthood.

    Sir Peregrine Gerard Worsthorne (born 22 December 1923) is a British journalist, writer and broadcaster. He was educated at Stowe School, Peterhouse, Cambridge, and Magdalen College, Oxford. Worsthorne spent the largest part of his career at the Telegraph newspaper titles, eventually becoming editor of The Sunday Telegraph for several years. He left the newspaper in 1997.

  12. I once saw some peregrines doing their thing at Mt Arapiles, in west Vic, remains one of my favorite nature encounters. I so saddened by the killing of wedge-tails in East Gippsland…..

  13. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, June 14, 2018 at 1:15 pm
    I named one of my sons after a Raptor. The Peregrine Falcon.

    It’s not his first name.
    ————————————————–
    Better than two dogs … I suppose.

  14. J341983 says:
    Thursday, June 14, 2018 at 1:15 pm
    @briefly – a bit of a logic flaw in your argument to a religious organisation lol

    I was not addressing anyone in particular, least of all any religious organs. My appeal is to reason and humanity at large.

    Sin is an obsolete idea. We should cancel it. We have already largely cancelled the medieval idea of hell. Heaven is such an ambiguous and problematic idea that it is also fading away. These are legacy ideas. They should be retired.

  16. briefly @ #114 Thursday, June 14th, 2018 – 1:41 pm

    J341983 says:
    Thursday, June 14, 2018 at 1:15 pm
    @briefly – a bit of a logic flaw in your argument to a religious organisation lol

    I was not addressing anyone in particular, least of all any religious organs. My appeal is to reason and humanity at large.

    Sin is an obsolete idea. We should cancel it. We have already largely cancelled the medieval idea of hell. Heaven is such an ambiguous and problematic idea that it is also fading away. These are legacy ideas. They should be retired.

    You must find it very annoying that about 80% of the world’s population – say around 6 billion people – would disagree with you 🙂

  18. Player One @ #116 Thursday, June 14th, 2018 – 1:53 pm

    briefly @ #114 Thursday, June 14th, 2018 – 1:41 pm

    J341983 says:
    Thursday, June 14, 2018 at 1:15 pm
    @briefly – a bit of a logic flaw in your argument to a religious organisation lol

    I was not addressing anyone in particular, least of all any religious organs. My appeal is to reason and humanity at large.

    Sin is an obsolete idea. We should cancel it. We have already largely cancelled the medieval idea of hell. Heaven is such an ambiguous and problematic idea that it is also fading away. These are legacy ideas. They should be retired.

    You must find it very annoying that about 80% of the world’s population – say around 6 billion people – would disagree with you 🙂

    You might be including all religions there even the ones that don’t sin, confession and redemption. There’s probably a billion Catholics and about as many of the other denominations combined.

  20. guytaur @ #38 Thursday, June 14th, 2018 – 10:19 am

    Half of Australian 25-year-olds are unable to secure full-time employment, despite 60% of them holding post-school qualifications, according to a new report. https://www.buzzfeed.com/ginarushton/half-of-aussie-25-year-olds-are-unable-to-secure-full-time?utm_term=.nn3j65lB7#.nhAN6BMm2

    Which feeds into the conversation last night where briefly was all for bringing in foreign workers on short term visas to take the jobs these young Australians would otherwise get.

  21. Player One says:
    Thursday, June 14, 2018 at 1:53 pm
    briefly @ #114 Thursday, June 14th, 2018 – 1:41 pm

    J341983 says:
    Thursday, June 14, 2018 at 1:15 pm
    @briefly – a bit of a logic flaw in your argument to a religious organisation lol

    I was not addressing anyone in particular, least of all any religious organs. My appeal is to reason and humanity at large.

    Sin is an obsolete idea. We should cancel it. We have already largely cancelled the medieval idea of hell. Heaven is such an ambiguous and problematic idea that it is also fading away. These are legacy ideas. They should be retired.

    You must find it very annoying that about 80% of the world’s population – say around 6 billion people – would disagree with you

    I am completely untroubled, P1. My cosmology is my business. I’m very happy with it. I’m not interested in recruiting others. Lots of people disagree about lots of things all the time. I’m resistant to evangelism of any shade, as are most people most of the time.

  22. bemused says:
    Thursday, June 14, 2018 at 2:00 pm

    You’re a filthy liar, bemused. You are a complete and utter fuckwit.

  23. BarossaObserver
    Hey @TurnbullMalcolm: you know all that money you’re promising the voters of Mayo … will they still get it if Georgina loses? #AskingForAFriend #Auspol

  24. briefly says:
    Thursday, June 14, 2018 at 2:07 pm
    bemused says:
    Thursday, June 14, 2018 at 2:00 pm

    You’re a filthy liar, bemused. You are a complete and utter fuckwit.

    …this is on a good day, of course…the rest of the time you’re simply a shithead.

  26. Dan
    “If there was no such thing as sin, how would we know what the fun activities to do indulge in are?”

    There is always the parents.
    Mate of mine visited his parents in a coastal town for a two week break, wondering how and whether he would be able to score. On the drive from the bus station to the parents house they helpfully pointed out the people and places to stay away from for their known “bad” activities.

  27. “Hey @TurnbullMalcolm: you know all that money you’re promising the voters of Mayo … will they still get it if Georgina loses?”

    Lay off Georgina, how could anyone vote against her after seeing that photo.
    It’d be like hurting Bambi and who would do that, who?

  28. bemused @ #120 Thursday, June 14th, 2018 – 2:00 pm

    guytaur @ #38 Thursday, June 14th, 2018 – 10:19 am

    Half of Australian 25-year-olds are unable to secure full-time employment, despite 60% of them holding post-school qualifications, according to a new report. https://www.buzzfeed.com/ginarushton/half-of-aussie-25-year-olds-are-unable-to-secure-full-time?utm_term=.nn3j65lB7#.nhAN6BMm2

    Which feeds into the conversation last night where briefly was all for bringing in foreign workers on short term visas to take the jobs these young Australians would otherwise get.

    That’s where you are wrong again. If you bothered to actually do a bit of research, you might realise that there aren’t Australians who are either trained or willing to do many these jobs, including in the IT sector.

    Try talking to any restaurant owner for example.

    Your xenophobia is exacerbated by your ignorance.

  29. Does anyone know what has happened recently about Dutton’s (black) “African gangs” or the (white) “persecuted South African farmers”?

  30. In regards One Nation, given this defection is because Hanson changed her view on Corporate Tax Cuts and the resultant comments that have flown since, how does Hanson change her stance from her current stance and not do very great damage to herself?

    “Come back to my Party because I have changed my mind back again so all is forgiven”

    Mr HIH has (again) played the politics very poorly by splintering One Nation to get 1 vote whilst ensuring he will not get the other vote

    A politician Mr HIH is not

  31. Does anyone know what has happened recently about Dutton’s (black) “African gangs” or the (white) “persecuted South African farmers”?

    They are waiting further interpretations from the powers that be.

  32. rossmcg @ #110 Thursday, June 14th, 2018 – 1:21 pm

    C@t

    quite a few famous Peregrines, starting with an early saint.

    St. Peregrine the martyr was an early Christian martyr who died because he and others refused to worship the Roman Emperor Commodus on his birthday.

    and another: Saint Peregrine Laziosi (Pellegrino Latiosi) (c. 1260 – 1 May 1345) is an Italian saint of the Servite Order (Friar Order Servants of Mary). He is the patron saint for persons suffering from cancer, AIDS, or other illness.

    But I doubt journalist would ever be considered for sainthood.

    Sir Peregrine Gerard Worsthorne (born 22 December 1923) is a British journalist, writer and broadcaster. He was educated at Stowe School, Peterhouse, Cambridge, and Magdalen College, Oxford. Worsthorne spent the largest part of his career at the Telegraph newspaper titles, eventually becoming editor of The Sunday Telegraph for several years. He left the newspaper in 1997.

    I’m going to copy that and send it to him!

    I’ll let you in on another little secret.

    I was so convinced that he was going to grow up and be someone famous that I wanted to give him the sort of name that would look good in print, or on a judge’s name plate. 🙂

    Instead, he grew up to be a writer and game developer, and the only way he is known is by his company name! 😀

    Anyhoo, just as well I didn’t succeed in getting my way on my other favourite name for him, Maynard. After Maynard G. Krebbs. 🙂

  34. boomy1 @ #131 Thursday, June 14th, 2018 – 2:31 pm

    Does anyone know what has happened recently about Dutton’s (black) “African gangs” or the (white) “persecuted South African farmers”?

    They are waiting further interpretations from the powers that be.

    What is funny though, is the fact that the Evangelical woman who almost made it to position #3 on the WA Liberal Senate ticket is a Black South African! Probably not a farmer either in her former South African life. 😀

  35. Observer,
    PM HIH will likely be counting on Brian Burston being courted by the Old White Conservative Male bloc in the Senate and then all of them voting for the Tax Cuts. I still don’t think, without Pauline Hanson’s remaining 2 votes, or the 2 ex X’s , that Turnbull will have the numbers, thank goodness.

  37. William

    If you’re still about.

    Just regarding your comment at the head of the previous thread, as follows:

    The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record a voteless recovery in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings

    .

    I seem to recall that Possum (I think it was) had a theory that the 2pp would often show an improvement two or three weeks after an improvement in the PMs netsats (not sure if it also applied to the opposition leader). Are you aware of any evidence that would support that view and do you expect the LNPs 2pp to improve on the back of Turnbull’s netsat improvement?

  39. Greensborough Growler @ #118 Thursday, June 14th, 2018 – 1:58 pm

    You might be including all religions there even the ones that don’t sin, confession and redemption. There’s probably a billion Catholics and about as many of the other denominations combined.

    You think only Catholics and other Christians can sin? While I might agree that they do a disproportionate amount of it ( 🙂 ), in fact many other religions have a concept analogous to “sin”.

  41. Melburnians now so terrified of African gangs they’re too scared to go to the police.

    Majak Daw gets traded to Collingwood.
    Complete Melbourne suburb dies of shame.

  46. Player One @ #139 Thursday, June 14th, 2018 – 2:50 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #118 Thursday, June 14th, 2018 – 1:58 pm

    You might be including all religions there even the ones that don’t sin, confession and redemption. There’s probably a billion Catholics and about as many of the other denominations combined.

    You think only Catholics and other Christians can sin? While I might agree that they do a disproportionate amount of it ( 🙂 ), in fact many other religions have a concept analogous to “sin”.

    You missed out the confession and redemption bit. Being analgous is not exactly the same.

  50. Watching Miriam Margoles in America I noticed a number of these signs in people’s gardens. Amazon has them for sale. Charming!

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