Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

After the Coalition’s near-brush with parity over the previous two polls, Labor gains a bit more breathing room in the latest Newspoll.

The latest Newspoll result has Labor’s lead back to 52-48 after a one point move in the Coalition’s favour a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Coalition 38% (down one), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up two).

On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 39% approval and down one on disapproval to 49%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval at 55%; and Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases slightly from 46-32 to 47-30. There is also a question on preferred Labor leader that has Anthony Albanese on 26%, Bill Shorten at 23% and Tanya Plibsersek at 23%, but I gather the favour hasn’t been extended to Malcolm Turnbull.

Also featured is a poorly framed question as to “when should company tax cuts be introduced”, which primes responses favourable to cuts both in the wording of the question and the structure of the response options, two out of three of which are pro-tax cut. For what they are worth, the results are that 36% favour such a cut “as soon as possible”, 27% do so “in stages over the next ten years” and, contrary to polls that haven’t privileged a positive response in this way, only 29% want one “not at all”.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1591.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,328 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. She’s obviously trying to impress the selectors putting together the Liberals’ SA Senate ballot paper.

    I’d say she’s wasting her time:

    1. she’s a woman.
    2. she ain’t white.

    Given what we know of today’s Liberal party, what odds would you say she has of being named in a winnable spot on the Senate ticket?

  3. Is this good news for Turnbull?
    My thinking is that the fewer people who vote for PHON, and therefore the fewer prefs leaked or exhausted, the better for Turnbull.

  6. A federal election in the wind? Today the AEC posted on facebook reminding people to register their interest in working for a federal election, in paid temporary roles before, on or after election day.

  7. https://www.afr.com/news/pauline-hanson-defied-as-one-nation-splits-on-company-tax-policy-20180530-h10ru6

    May 31 2018 at 8:30 AM
    One Nation Senator mulls defection as Pauline Hanson digs in on company tax

    Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party leader Robert Borsack has rejected what he says was an approach by rogue One Nation NSW Senator Brian Burston to join his party.

    On the same day it was revealed Senator Burston would defy Pauline Hanson and vote for the company tax cuts, Mr Borsack, a NSW state Upper House told The Australian Financial Review that Senator Burston had made an approach in Thursday.

    “He approached our state director to have a meeting to discuss coming over to us,’ Mr Borsack said.

    “I rejected it. I don’t think he’d be a good representative for us.

    “We’re not that desperate for a Canberra representative at the moment and when we do, we’ll use our own people.”

    Senator Burston denies he approached the party but would not comment further.

    But One Nation is in turmoil.

    “For Brian Burston to turn around and do this to me, it is hard. I am not finished, and if you think Brian Burston or anyone else will finish me, they will not. At the end of the day I will win,” Senator Hanson told Sky News in response to the revelation.

  8. Gerry ‘Haveawhinge’ Harvey was on ABC 6pm radio news about what monsters Amazon are.

    I thought he’d be happy that Amazon is drastically limiting what people can buy by refusing orders from Australia on their overseas websites.

    My OH certainly hopes that eBay doesn’t follow Amazon. She buys all sorts of bibs and bobs from China, mostly for dressmaking. Prices are a fraction of what shops like Lincraft charge, postage is sometimes free, service is quick and very reliable. These suppliers in China certainly know how to keep the customers happy. Paypal also works well.

  11. Confessions @ #2151 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 7:45 pm

    She’s obviously trying to impress the selectors putting together the Liberals’ SA Senate ballot paper.

    I’d say she’s wasting her time:

    1. she’s a woman.
    2. she ain’t white.

    Given what we know of today’s Liberal party, what odds would you say she has of being named in a winnable spot on the Senate ticket?

    Even Ann Ruston is having difficulties holding onto her spot on the Liberal SA Senate ticket. And she’s white, wealthy and a long term Liberal!

  12. I suppose all the disaffected PHON voters will surge over to the Greens.

    I expect the Greens polling to jump from less than ten to less than ten.

  14. Boerwar @ #2159 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 7:58 pm

    c
    I think eBay was on this afternoon saying that they are not going to follow Amazon. Not sure.

    True. They said that Amazon is a single entity, so it’s easier for them to take the sort of action that they have, whereas eBay have multiple stores and so it’s harder for them to control it effectively.

  17. Re: Amazon – Amazon is prepared to collect 45 sets of State-level sales taxes (the other 5 don’t levy sales taxes) for its US customer base; surely they can do this for Australia too, since Australia’s population (and thus potential market) is larger than that of all but two of those States?

    I smell a stunt by Bezos here – he may stick in Trump’s craw sideways, but that doesn’t automatically make him Mr. Shine in my eyes!

    @Boerwar – I think your math is a tad off, comrade:

    1. $30,000 is a very high UBI estimate; currently, Newstart is ~$16,000 p.a. or thereabouts. The DSP is just under $24,000;
    2. You’re not removing current spending as would be appropriate, simply tacking on your idea of UBI on top of all current spending;
    3. Would all Australians receive the UBI? Or “only” all adults? These are significantly different numbers.
    4. What other revenue-raising options have been canvassed?

    So, let’s plug in a different set of numbers and assumptions, and see how it calculates out:
    1. A more realistic assumption of UBI level would be $20,000 p.a. – still a significant boost from Newstart, but far lower than your stated $30,000 p.a.;
    2. Consider that the Australian Govt currently pays $115bn p.a. in cash transfers, plus $40bn p.a. in “welfare services”, most of which would end up scrapped (i.e., the Job Network providers, to name just one example). Then add the ~$20bn in administrative costs p.a. (yes, really!), and you’re talking some pretty serious dosh. Let’s say – for example – that moving to a UBI would halve the $60bn we currently spend on services & administration, and axe the current $115bn transfers entirely – the point of a UBI is to replace and simplify the transfers system;
    3. Remember, FTB A&B are both going, so an additional ~20%(?) loading onto the UBI for the caretakers of a dependent child to make up for the lost household incomes. Add an additional 10% each of 15th, 16th and 17th years to go to the child directly to accustom them to money and how it works (and provide for the higher level of discretionary spending a teenager will incur, compared to an infant or pre-teen);
    4. Just to start with, a real crackdown on MNC tax evasion would probably net about half of what’s currently being evaded – that’s around $10bn p.a. on most estimates I’m seeing. Shorten’s plan to axe cash refunds of excess dividend imputation credits is another $6bn p.a., applying Labor’s negative gearing policy would be another $4bn and several other options are live.

    Total gross cost = UBI amount x population.

    – Per the ABS, the current est. total 18+ population is just less than 19.1m people. Multiplied by $20,000 p.a. and the “adult” portion of UBI cost is $382bn p.a.
    – Also per the ABS, current 0-14 population is 4.63m people. Multiplied by 20% of UBI (paid to parents), and you come to a total of $18.5bn p.a.
    – Now add the graduated increases in the final few years of childhood. Going from ABS figures and multiplying by $2,000 p.a. (15), $4,000 p.a. (16) or $6,000 p.a. (17), I come to an annual cost of around $9.5bn p.a. – call it $10bn per annum to be on the safe side.

    So the grand total of gross cost is $410bn p.a. – which is serious money by anyone’s definition. But that’s before starting on deductions. First, we can deduct $145bn p.a. off the top in current welfare costs that we no longer have to pay (all the transfers, plus half the admin. costs) – since the UBI replaces them. That’s $265bn p.a. of costs now. That’s how much revenue would have to be raised to fully account for a UBI – and I think it could be done. Here are just a few ways to go about it:

    – Qatar receives $27bn this year, for natural gas that we practically give away, at less than $1bn in royalties. We could add $25bn p.a. in PRRT for offshore resources (via several mechanisms, obviously) and still be competitive with the world’s biggest exporter;
    – Setting a single royalties rate for each mineral extracted across Australia to prevent sweetheart deals and races to the bottom – while still letting the States collect it – can raise at least that much in additional State revenue p.a., which means that the States would need less help from Canberra;
    – The tax reforms I identified above come to another $20bn p.a.;
    – Then there’s $5bn p.a. in direct subsidies to fossil fuels;
    – A 0.1%(!) Tobin tax (tax on most financial transactions) would raise ~$5bn annually. Making it a 1% tax – paid by the seller – would raise ~$20bn from reduced transactions.

    There’s $80bn p.a. in extra revenue – and that’s just from a handful of ideas that tinker at the edges of Australia’s tax system. I think the numbers could stack up, although we’d have to significantly raise at least some taxes to bring the net cost down to something reasonable. And that’s a conversation that would be necessarily unpleasant, since someone would end up paying the bill. But I think it could be done.

    We’d end up looking a little more like Scandinavia, and a lot less like America. And I, for one, consider that end-point to be a good one…if we can find a way there.

  18. Even if eBay doesn’t stop overseas sellers using its platform, there’s still the problem of parcels being held up by Customs/Border Force and consumers being told to pay $$ before the parcel is released.

    Most of the items that OH orders from China would be worth $10 or less.

    A bureaucratic nightmare in the offing.

  20. Boerwar,

    I can only talk about Queensland but a lot if ON voters are not red necked, unwashed, uneducated ” white trash “.

    In a lot of cases they simply are worried about jobs and the perceived aloofness of the political class. Turnbull does not appeal to them and they are concerned about the lack of policy directed at their concerns. They do not want tax cuts going to the big banks while unemployment is high, job security is shot and wages are flatlining. AS are not a huge issue, immigration is and Tunbull s not addressing any of those concerns. They turn to ON because they perceive Hanson as being their saviour. If Hanson implodes they will not go back to Turnbull. Labor, on the ground in Longman, is getting strong feedback opposing the tax cuts to the banks in particular. Hanson also has been getting the same feedback. The rogue senator is from NSW so he may not be aware his toxic the banks are here in Queensland.

    Remember what Shorten said , ” house by house, street by street, suburb by suburb “.

    Labor will not be upset about this latest turmoil.

    Disclaimer : Only from a Queensland and Longmam perspective.

    Cheers.

  24. Worst LOTO pickings are rich! Alexander Downer must come close.

    Latham at least topped from the bottom on policy, getting Howard to change the MPs superannuation payout arrangements, and espoused policies that not only were introduced by the coalition govt, but have lasted to today, ie early years and the AEDC (then AEDI).

  25. In Group 1 I chose Brendan Nelson as worst Oppo Leader. He was so weak and ineffectual he was rolled and replaced by a Fizza.

    In group 2 there was no contest. Abbott by a country mile.

  26. Confessions @ #2164 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 8:03 pm

    C@t:

    Plus Lib women ministers are losing their preselections!

    It’s ridiculous! Lib women falling like nine pins all over the shop! Jane Hume, Kelly O’Dwyer, Ann Sudmalis, Ann Ruston. Jane Prentice already gone. How many would that leave!

    I wouldn’t even put it past the Conservatives, you can’t call them Liberals, to target Concetta Fieravanti-Wells in NSW, even though she is a Conservative herself, but because she is older and a woman!

  27. “A federal election in the wind? Today the AEC posted on facebook reminding people to register their interest in working for a federal election, in paid temporary roles before, on or after election day.”

    Labor, the Greens and Getup should be going after young people on Facebook and wherever else they hang out, urging them to enroll to vote.

  28. Matt

    I’ll get back to you on the numbers when Di Natale provides HIS numbers for the spend and the revenue. Which he has so far entirely avoided. One thing is for sure. He does trillions at the drop of a hat.

    While we are on the topic of assumptions, coal exports and uranium exports will be banned by Di Natale. That will be the Global Warming and Peace Dividend of electing the Greens.

    Coal mines and uranium mines will be closed.

    Refugees will arrive by plane or by boat at the an unknown rate – or will they not get the UBI? We could be looking at net migration of a million a year.

    Our agricultural competitiveness will be gutted by regulation and by the open hostility of the Greens to GMOs, irrigation, animal husbandry (except perhaps goat herding on foot) and to chemicals. Ditto our aquaculture industries. If you think this is fanciful, have a good close read of Greens’s policies. It is all there, hidden in plain sight.

    Before Der Tag arrives they will promise free money for jam and flog Labor.

    But when Der Tag arrives there will be capital strike and capital flight.

    Our export oriented economy will collapse as our debts balloon, overseas people stop wanting to lend their money to us, and as profitable sections of the economy are taken over by feather bedded and inefficient state enterprises.

    If you want to see how all this works in practic, go and have a look at Venezuela, one of the most resource rich countries in the world.

    The Greens would have us queuing for toilet paper in no time flat.

  32. doyley
    If you are right about ex PHONs in Longman, and Labor beats the forces of evil there, I will shout myself a beer and drink it on your behalf with a hearty ‘Cheers!’

  33. In group 2 there was no contest. Abbott by a country mile.

    How can someone be worst LOTO when their tenure as LOTO ended with them becoming PM?

  35. Confessions,

    Yes, I think perhaps you are right on reflection.

    For fun, I might head over to youtube & watch PM/Treasurer Paul Keating kicking the whole lot of them up and down the front bench during question time.

    Ahh reminiscing.

  36. I wouldn’t even put it past the Conservatives, you can’t call them Liberals, to target Concetta Fieravanti-Wells in NSW, even though she is a Conservative herself, but because she is older and a woman!

    I wouldn’t even call them conservatives. They’re reactionaries!

  38. One Nation are useful idiots*. They represent a splinter of the broader right wing. They are a burr in the saddle of the “Liberal” Party (a polite way of putting it?) They peel votes off the “Liberals” and through preferences scatter some to Labor. Were they to collapse (again), their votes would fold into the “Liberals” and their country cousins.

    EDIT: That’s what John Howard managed to do, and I am sure the “Liberals” are working behind the scenes to repeat his success in that regard.

    * often also useless idiots

  39. SilentMajority:

    I’m terribly disappointed with Latham’s descent into numptyville. If he’d kept his head and his ego, he could today be a champion of the importance of the early years in terms of early learning, disease prevention in adult life, and early social adjustment to mitigate against the kinds of social problems we see arise from conservative/Liberal policy focus on individuals rather than communities and societies and services.

  40. Abbott was as terrible as opposition leader, as he was PM.
    The difference was that he was able to get away with it in opposition for various reasons, we don’t need to go into that, but at the end of the day his own party confirmed how bad he was when they decided to knife him in record time.

  41. according to the Shovel, “Vacuous, Attention Seeking Reality TV Star Meets With Kim Kardiashian”.

  43. Matt regarding UBI

    I don’t think a UBI less than the current DSP is workable. It needs to be a living income. Now one could argue about separating out living costs from rental/housing costs but that’s another argument.

    I do think a UBI is entirely feasible. But the way it was explained to me is as follows. You start with a UBI replacing the current tax free threshold. So any dollars you actually earn are immediately taxed at the lowest rate (say 15%). Then you have a progressive tax scale that unsurprisingly tends to exhaust the effect of the UBI once you get to about twice median income.

    The other thing not often discussed is that even for the wealthy its a good thing. Because all this money flows through the economy in ways that benefit particularly smaller business.

    Another thing not mentioned, but often mentioned with discussion of UBI is the reduction in other costs. Health costs. The cost of homelessness. The cost of crime and mental illness. Not to mention the “loss of human capital” cost. That is the input to the economy that currently isn’t seen because its from people who fall through the cracks.

    Then there’s the additional benefit for society in terms of higher rates of volunteerism, more people willing to help the aged, children and so on.

  44. Boerwar @ #2183 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 8:31 pm

    C@t

    Maybe if he brings some antiseptic wipes?

    https://www.google.com/search?q=image+of+dummy+spit&client=firefox-b&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=e5dtxwEB4fH3oM%253A%252CYb_2SSIsTqD6eM%252C_&usg=__Y8LdXt0hK2XX20nNcwwRMj9ZO7s%3D&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiOna6l36_bAhUCfrwKHSJmAasQ9QEIKTAA#imgrc=e5dtxwEB4fH3oM:

    I cannot believe that, after having humiliated Pauline so publicly, that Burston will be allowed back in her good graces unless and until he toes the party line and drops his support for the Corporate Tax Cuts.

    Pauline is right on this one, those Toff’s Tax Cuts are toxic in electorates like Longman.

    Burston shouldn’t have allowed himself to be duchessed by Cormann.

    And then to go behind Pauline’s back and suck up to the SFFs. The guy wouldn’t even be in the Senate if it wasn’t for Hanson. He would be nothing without her and no party in their right mind would pre-select him again after his behaviour of the last little while.

  45. Kieran Gilbert
    Kieran Gilbert
    @Kieran_Gilbert
    ·
    10m
    Tears aside. Pauline Hanson says Australians are sick of politicians that don’t do anything. Maybe they’re also sick of an individual and party that has had 4 positions on company tax cuts this year alone #auspol

  50. Fess: “If [Latham had] kept his head and his ego, he could today be a champion of… etc etc”. Except he was never likely to, according to those who knew him. Bob Carr – “Latham as Leader? That’d be an interesting 9 months”. Fellow I once knew ( a mad bugger himself, who was expelled from the ALP, but who could assess other people pretty well) – “He’ll only be ok until he goes off his meds”.

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