Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

After the Coalition’s near-brush with parity over the previous two polls, Labor gains a bit more breathing room in the latest Newspoll.

The latest Newspoll result has Labor’s lead back to 52-48 after a one point move in the Coalition’s favour a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Coalition 38% (down one), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up two).

On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 39% approval and down one on disapproval to 49%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval at 55%; and Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases slightly from 46-32 to 47-30. There is also a question on preferred Labor leader that has Anthony Albanese on 26%, Bill Shorten at 23% and Tanya Plibsersek at 23%, but I gather the favour hasn’t been extended to Malcolm Turnbull.

Also featured is a poorly framed question as to “when should company tax cuts be introduced”, which primes responses favourable to cuts both in the wording of the question and the structure of the response options, two out of three of which are pro-tax cut. For what they are worth, the results are that 36% favour such a cut “as soon as possible”, 27% do so “in stages over the next ten years” and, contrary to polls that haven’t privileged a positive response in this way, only 29% want one “not at all”.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1591.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,328 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. imacca @ #2093 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 4:12 pm

    ok..just had a a look at the trailer for the Joyce interview. Oh Dear. They are playing up the “people who tried to stop this baby being born” aspect. Ok, in terms of marketing it i can see the logic in that.

    But, if its being played up that way we are going to be talking a SERIOUS hunt for who ever suggested it.

    A flaming torches, pitchforks and packs of slavering hunting dogs High Hunt.

    I’m all for events that damage the Libs but this is way OT. And Barnyard is the main contributor in all this being outed?? Maybe he is pissed that the suggestion was put, i could well understand that. Perhaps his apparent mishandling of this hasn’t been and has all been leading up to outing the bastards who suggested abortion. His revenge? this will all get very messy. 🙁

    *IF* the allegation is true, *IF*, the bonfire that is Beetrooter is about to turn into a wildfire.

  2. William Bowe @ #2092 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 6:09 pm

    Next time I see Simon, erstwhile professor of statistics at Stanford University, I’ll let him know that his research doesn’t gel with what some guy thinks he remembers from his undergraduate studies half a century ago.

    Thanks. My lecturers, Leo Maglen and Prof David Giles will be impressed.

  3. https://www.insights.uca.org.au/news/vale-freda-whitlam

    Vale, Freda Whitlam
    Insights Magazine May 31, 2018

    Freda Whitlam passed away on Wednesday 30 May, at the age of 97.

    Freda was the ninth Moderator of NSW/ACT Synod and an influential member of Penrith Uniting Church.

    Freda was also a passionate advocate for education. She sat on the board that founded Western Sydney University, and helped bring to Australia the University of the Third Age (U3A), a movement that provides education to seniors, to Penrith and the Blue Mountains. Freda remained active in this space, teaching Latin at U3A well into her 90s.

    Much like her brother, former Prime Minister Edward ‘Gough’ Whitlam, Freda was a witty, intimidating presence.

    http://australianpolitics.com/2018/05/29/mcwilliams-wasnt-the-last-tasmanian-country-party-member.html

    No, William McWilliams Wasn’t The Last Country Party Member From Tasmania
    May 29, 2018

  4. William Bowe @ #2092 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 6:09 pm

    Next time I see Simon, erstwhile professor of statistics at Stanford University, I’ll let him know that his research doesn’t gel with what some guy thinks he remembers from his undergraduate studies half a century ago.

    Oh, for accuracy I should say that it wasn’t half a century ago either. I was a mature age student.

  5. Boris @ #2088 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 4:05 pm

    “Haveachat
    A bit puzzled by this new GST on purchases of less than $1000. ”

    From what I have heard from 1 July when you buy your stuff overseas you will now have to apy a $10 processing fee as well as the GST. Apparently the post office/ courier company collects the fee and GST off you before you get the parcel.

    a $20 purchase gets a $12 hit, GST + fee. Comes into effect soon but not much detail on it.

    The fee is meant to dissuade you from buying overseas and avoiding GST.

    This isn’t going to end well for the L/NP, regardless of the merits of the discussion. Their cost of living campaign has just gone up on smoke.

  8. There are any number of things that can complicate a single seat poll.

    One is being sure your responses are actually from that seat. This is only fully possible with a face to face poll. Land-line numbers are becoming increasingly disconnected from geographical areas due to number portability. Mobile numbers are only loosely connected via the address on the account and the pollster probably won’t have that anyway – they will rely on second hand data. Online polls might be abit better but still rely on people’s imperfect knowledge of what electorate they are in.

    Also, all polls collect age and gender at point of polling but the ACTUAL age and gender profile of a seat will be a lot less certain than for the population as a whole. It will rely on the census and get progressively less accurate over time. This will corrupt the weighting of different age and gender cohorts.

    I’m sure there are other factors bound up with geographic and income distribution.

    Overall, there are probably better things a pollster can do to enhance their reputation.

  10. Whisper. Thank you. I may have to use a forwarding service to get wanted book out of the USA.
    There are many aspects of this change that are going to annoy a lot of voters

  11. Hugh Riminton @hughriminton
    22s
    Malcolm Farr says Pauline Hanson wants to drop Senator Brian Burston from #1 on NSW Senate ticket. She is keen on getting #MarkLatham, he says.

  12. William Bowe @ #2160 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 4:42 pm

    Hugh Riminton @hughriminton
    22s
    Malcolm Farr says Pauline Hanson wants to drop Senator Brian Burston from #1 on NSW Senate ticket. She is keen on getting #MarkLatham, he says.

    Latham has been sounding like a PHON voter for a while now so I suppose it’s a good fit.

  15. I suspect Amazon’s decision to block Australian access to their overseas websites has nothing to do with the GST and everything to do with trying to improve their sales figures at Amazon.com.au after its lacklustre launch (limited products, and ho hum pricing.)

  17. “I’ll stick to my disbelief and reliance on what I learnt about statistics at Monash Uni.”

    Yeah, good O.

  19. GG:

    Good article by Coorey. I was unaware of the early beginnings and investigations of the NSW ICAC some 30 years ago.

  21. ajm @ #2103 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 6:36 pm

    There are any number of things that can complicate a single seat poll.

    One is being sure your responses are actually from that seat. This is only fully possible with a face to face poll. Land-line numbers are becoming increasingly disconnected from geographical areas due to number portability. Mobile numbers are only loosely connected via the address on the account and the pollster probably won’t have that anyway – they will rely on second hand data. Online polls might be abit better but still rely on people’s imperfect knowledge of what electorate they are in.

    Also, all polls collect age and gender at point of polling but the ACTUAL age and gender profile of a seat will be a lot less certain than for the population as a whole. It will rely on the census and get progressively less accurate over time. This will corrupt the weighting of different age and gender cohorts.

    I’m sure there are other factors bound up with geographic and income distribution.

    Overall, there are probably better things a pollster can do to enhance their reputation.

    Some plausible reasons there for why a single seat poll might be less accurate.
    I am not sure if pollsters can get access to the Electoral Roll, but political parties can. So the Electoral Roll for a seat lists the population of interest in that seat.
    Working from that as a base, I think the other issues can be resolved. e.g. age and gender weighting by the same techniques used in a national poll.

    I was once involved in a poll in my Federal Electorate conducted by a bunch of amateurs but with some who had knowledge of statistics. We did face to face interviews with quite a large sample plucked out of the Electoral Roll. I think it was around 1,000.

    We predicted the outcome very accurately, about 1.5% off the actual result.

    Professional pollsters should be able to do even better, if they can be bothered.

  23. In essence the point is that by politicising the ROC, the Turnbull govt and Cash have all but guaranteed its demise.

  24. Dan Gulberry @ #2109 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 6:45 pm

    bemused @ #2054 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 3:10 pm

    Oops.. got my wires crossed and was confusing eBay with Paypal. I believe they are connected.

    They were. PayPal was bought by eBay as its in-house payments system. It’s now been set free and is a separate Nasdaq listed company.

    Thanks Dan, useful information.

    I really just see this change as creating a great business opportunity for Paypal or any other payment system that will collect the GST on behalf of overseas retailers.

    I have always seen the payments system as being the key to an effective, low cost means of collecting GST.

  25. It’s interesting that Greiner set up the ICAC and it ended his political career.

    Turnbull/Cash have politicised the ROC and it looks like it too will enda few careers of LNP politicians.

    The moral of the story is that assuming all the good guys are on your side is not a sure way of ensuring long term political survival.

  27. Would not Latham like to have the sole BOP in the Senate for six years!
    They would have to change the red carpets after every sitting week.

  28. The moral of the story is that assuming all the good guys are on your side is not a sure way of ensuring long term political survival.

    Actually the moral of the story is that politicising institutions will ultimately end in tears.

  29. Who, if anyone, approved the Joyce abortion gambit?
    Was the alleged trade-off a de facto an inducement and is there not some sort of law about that?
    Are the AFP on their way to the love nest?

  30. There is yet another sordid episode in the ongoing saga of the misadventures of the developer/politician clatch in the ACT.

    A whole box full of documents relating to certain conversations between certain parties has mysteriously gone missing.

    There does not seem to be a huge urgency on the part of the Government to look for them, let alone find them.

  31. bemused

    Professional pollsters should be able to do even better, if they can be bothered.

    More like if their clients can be bothered to pay enough for a more extensive survey. That and giving what their clients want.

  40. Pauline Hansen has just had a meltdown on Ben Fordham’s program on Sky. Given Burston the biggest serve and was almost in tears. One Nation about to implode

  50. (someone posted this earlier)

    Gichuhi
    The Liberal Party is founded on the values I hold close to my heart; freedom of choice, conscience, thought and belief, a fair go, mutual
    obligation, contributing to society and the freedom to disagree agreeably.

    She’s obviously trying to impress the selectors putting together the Liberals’ SA Senate ballot paper.

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