Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

After the Coalition’s near-brush with parity over the previous two polls, Labor gains a bit more breathing room in the latest Newspoll.

The latest Newspoll result has Labor’s lead back to 52-48 after a one point move in the Coalition’s favour a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Coalition 38% (down one), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up two).

On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 39% approval and down one on disapproval to 49%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval at 55%; and Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases slightly from 46-32 to 47-30. There is also a question on preferred Labor leader that has Anthony Albanese on 26%, Bill Shorten at 23% and Tanya Plibsersek at 23%, but I gather the favour hasn’t been extended to Malcolm Turnbull.

Also featured is a poorly framed question as to “when should company tax cuts be introduced”, which primes responses favourable to cuts both in the wording of the question and the structure of the response options, two out of three of which are pro-tax cut. For what they are worth, the results are that 36% favour such a cut “as soon as possible”, 27% do so “in stages over the next ten years” and, contrary to polls that haven’t privileged a positive response in this way, only 29% want one “not at all”.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1591.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,328 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Boris,
    Thank you for your response. I guess the next step is to determine the best way to buy my goods, is it better to buy in lots of $400 – 500 and pay the processing fee and a small GST or pay exorbitant prices for something I can buy for 1/4 of the price from AliExpress.

  2. yes it was latham not the labor party, except for the fact that the next leader but one was also officially condemned as mad too!

  4. “The difference was that he [Abbott] was able to get away with it in opposition for various reasons, we don’t need to go into that…”

    Let’s go into that. He had all the money and nearly all the mainstream media in his corner. They boosted his lies and overlooked his stupidies.

    Fortunately, unlike the idiot in the White House, he didn’t have a big red button.

  6. Here’ s an interesting proposition. Can Pauline Hanson sack Brian Burston and replace him with James Ashby? She is President for Life of One Nation.

  7. JackaRanda:

    The evidence speaks for itself that he wasn’t able to dig up his mature, adult side.

    But still. I’m disappointed at the lengths to which he has dropped into Fox News territory.

  9. Katharine Murphy

    @murpharoo
    Tony Burke raises a valid point at the end of #qt How come the prime minister didn’t answer questions about Hunt that would have been within the scope of his knowledge during that session? Is there any recourse? Speaker Smith says no.

  12. ‘Pseudo Cud Chewer says:
    Thursday, May 31, 2018 at 8:40 pm

    Matt regarding UBI

    I don’t think a UBI less than the current DSP is workable. It needs to be a living income.’

    Individual agency is the whole point of UBI, I believe and the annual UBI should not be set at bare subsistence levels.

    UBI would be payable while resident in Australia.

    UBI would be deduced pro rata while overseas.

    In my $30,000 I put in all costs that are currently subsidised for most people on social security. It may even have to be $40,000.

    There would be no further provision of state benefits beyond the UBI.

    In relation to tax, it makes no sense to tax the UBI. Tax would start for all earnings above the UBI.

    No action by any adult would deprive them of the UBI.

    Prisoners would get the full UBI but judges might decide to fine them an annual proportion of the UBI while they are inside.

    Once outside they would assume the full UBI. Fines would not be automatically deducted from the UBI. Adults get the UBI and use that to pay the fine. It is their money, after all.

    A big issue is how UBI for carers of children are calculated. Baby bonus? Per child per annum?

    I await with keen interest Di Natale doing more than dropping a door stop trillion dollar UBI program onto the rest of us and providing us with some real world money calculations.

  15. Confessions @ #2189 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 8:37 pm

    SilentMajority:

    I’m terribly disappointed with Latham’s descent into numptyville. If he’d kept his head and his ego, he could today be a champion of the importance of the early years in terms of early learning, disease prevention in adult life, and early social adjustment to mitigate against the kinds of social problems we see arise from conservative/Liberal policy focus on individuals rather than communities and societies and services.

    He was never any good.

  16. @Boerwar

    I think its fine to criticize the UBI on lack of details,

    But I think the focus should be on the fact how LNP has made access to Welfare more unfair and strict.

  17. ‘Pseudo Cud Chewer says:
    Thursday, May 31, 2018 at 8:53 pm

    Vogon whatever you think of the Greens, a UBI is actually a good idea.’

    It may well be a good idea. But where is the money going to come from? The scale is in the trillions, not hundreds of billions. My main criticism of Di Natale here is that he has neither costed it nor found the money for it.

    He is doing populist hand stands.

    We are running endless deficits on current social spending which will rise inexorably as the Boomers start bleeding the health and aged care systems.

    By definition any individual UBI would be more than existing Newstart and all possible subsidies, more than the existing Pension, more than the DISP because UBI is not about keeping people barely alive in some sort of deprived poverty. And the UBI would be much more than the sum of those items because the 12 million people in the workforce would ALSO get the UBI. By definition.

  20. Were you asleep during the time Abbott had as opposition leader? He didn’t win the election – Labor lost it.

    True, but his tenure as LOTO still ended with him becoming PM. I voted for Howard circa 1980s instead.

    But each to their own.

  22. The question re UBI for me is: if govt funding is to be redirected towards a UBI where even the wealthiest of our society can claim it, why can’t that same funding be directed towards boosting our welfare safety net and existing Commonwealth payments?

  23. Trump looks really spruced up for this photo. Trying to impress Kiardashian’s fans?

    Wonder why he was seated while she was standing?

  24. citizen @ #2221 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 9:10 pm

    Trump looks really spruced up for this photo. Trying to impress Kiardashian’s fans?

    Wonder why he was seated while she was standing?

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Because she is tiny and he is 6′ 3″. It’s the only way the photo works.

    But boy, hasn’t Trump debased the office of the President of the United States in record time?

  28. latham was groomed by gough whitlam for gough’s old seat – in 1990’s latham was the rising star of labor the glamour candidate out western sydney – he must have been doing something right

  29. @Confessions

    I think Safety Net a more of priority, especially with Newstart and others, where LNP been attacking them as well.

  31. Edwina StJohn @ #2213 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 8:59 pm

    How did you express your displeasure at Latham’s election bemused? I didn’t pick you as a Saigon monk!

    I was unaware of his existence at the time.
    I was horrified when he became an opposition front bencher and morons in the press started praising him as an ‘ideas man’. All his ideas I read about were just weird. Then there was an article about him in one of the weekend magazines and he came across as a self opinionated wanker.
    When he became LOTO I just hoped I had been wrong and caucus knew better. They didn’t. I only erred in not seeing just how bad he was.

  32. I am answering this reply to my comment on social media, where I compared the LP to the Republicans as far as using racism and division as a vote-grabber.

    This guy wrote”

    “the Liberals are not like the Republicans. Maybe the conservative wing of the Libs are but not the whole party. If you are trying to place them on a line I would say from Centre to Right you have the Liberals, who some would claim to be Centre to Centre Right and others conservative, the UK Conservatives and then the US Republicans.”

    I then pointed out that the ‘wets’ have just about been eradicated, a process started by Howard and that Menzies would have buckleys of ever joining let alone leading the present day Liberal party.

    Is there anything else I should add?
    Who are the remaining centre-ish Libs left in Ministry or associated positions?

  33. Confessions @ #2222 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 9:09 pm

    The question re UBI for me is: if govt funding is to be redirected towards a UBI where even the wealthiest of our society can claim it, why can’t that same funding be directed towards boosting our welfare safety net and existing Commonwealth payments?

    UBI replaces all such payments.

  34. “Wonder why he was seated while she was standing?”

    She insisted he keep his hands where she could see them before agreeing to stand that close.

  35. thanks Matt

    meat for thought just when i thought another evening had been corrupted

    out of interested how with basic income solve education and health and infrastructure
    your tax measures are true but surely than money can go to equitable public services?

    thanks thanks for raising gas exports – so $1B is total including royalties – why have this industry?
    where are street demos?

  37. hungry jack @ #2228 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 9:17 pm

    latham was groomed by gough whitlam for gough’s old seat – in 1990’s latham was the rising star of labor the glamour candidate out western sydney – he must have been doing something right

    Gough’s second worst error of judgement, the first being to appoint Kerr as GG.

  38. is there curation on this site at least minimal

    the rants of one contributor tonight – the madness of all labor leaders – should be axed

  41. Zoidlord @ #2280 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 7:18 pm

    @Confessions

    I think Safety Net a more of priority, especially with Newstart and others, where LNP been attacking them as well.

    Yes. My own view is that we already have a welfare safety net, so why not bolster that instead of directing taxpayer funding towards a universal income available to those who don’t need it?

  42. hungry jack @ #2226 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 9:17 pm

    latham was groomed by gough whitlam for gough’s old seat – in 1990’s latham was the rising star of labor the glamour candidate out western sydney – he must have been doing something right

    He was a gifted but unstable young man from a broken home who went on to win the University Medal in Economics at Sydney Uni. A shooting star who burned bright and then crashed to earth.

  44. If we had an UBI, we would save a fortune on Centrelink compliance costs. I cannot see how, with all our resources, we couldn’t afford it, if we were not giving our resources away for peanuts plus cushy retirement jobs for compliant pollies.

  45. Rudd not mad? You a Trotskyite or something bemused? Surely you understand the official party line? Where is your partiinost ?

  46. “Is there anything else I should add?”

    You could point out how Turnbull abandoned his centrist and liberal positions for the sake of being allowed to leave. He agreed to the absurd marriage equality plebiscite, chucking $120 million down the drain. If he still believes we should be doing something about climate change, it doesn’t inform his premiership. And look how much power he is allowing proto-fascist Dutton to grab. And, by the way, when was the last time he mentioned the Republic?

  47. C@tmomma
    Latham sounds like a person who should have stayed out of politics and applied himself to a more sedate and worthwhile career.

  48. “She insisted he keep his hands where she could see them before agreeing to stand that close.”

    First thing I looked for – where are his hands?

  50. Silent Majority
    Me too.
    I would also have insisted he stayed sitting there until I left the room.
    Or got out of the front gate.

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