With Newspoll holding its fire ahead of tonight’s budget, the one new federal poll for the week is the regular fortnightly result from Essential Research – which, The Guardian reports, has maintained its recent form in recording Labor’s lead unchanged at 53-47. Primary votes to follow with the publication of the full report later today. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull on 40% approval (up one) and 42% disapproval (steady), Bill Shorten on 37% approval (up two) and 41% disapproval (down two), and Turnbull leading 40-26 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 41-26 last time.
As related in The Guardian’s report, other questions relate to what respondents would like in the budget, of which the most interesting findings would seem to be an 11% increase for “assistance for the unemployed” compared with last year, along with 8% increases for age pensions, affordable housing and assistance for the needy. The most favoured categories overall are health care, age pensions, education and affordable housing; the least favoured are foreign aid, business assistance and the military. Eighteen per cent expect the budget to be good for them personally (up eight on last year) compared with 24% for bad (down six), and 39% now rate the economy good (up six since November) compared with 24% for bad.
Note also the post below this one on the looming Western Australian state by-election in Darling Range.
UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation down two to 6%.
Good summary ratsak- people care about their wages/ pensions/ health/education/ fairness…the bottom line……they do not give a flying fig about S44/ party factional games/ Bill hangs out with billionaires or other rubbish the Libs choose to throw around.
Turnbull and Co really are clueless.
J Edgar Tuber is feeling left out.
Bemused,
You lose!
ratsak:
I said earlier that the coalition is in this predicament of off the cuff bandaid policy announcements because they haven’t done the groundwork to formulate actual policy to underpin their day to day strategy.
It’s showing now, and badly.
‘Player One says:
Thursday, May 10, 2018 at 9:13 pm
Boerwar @ #1642 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 7:49 pm
One of my cousins is a water engineer in Holland. On my last visit we had a couple of lengthy discussions about global warming and water management in the Netherlands. The amount of effort required to stop P1’s ‘depleted’ ground water from drowning the country is stupendous.
You clearly don’t understand the difference between groundwater, surface water, and sea-water. It is pointless arguing with you if you don’t understand such basics.
(A fair bit of my Master’s was in relationships between these elements so, no, you are wrong again.)
You could use google to learn a few things about your beloved homeland. I’ll give you a hint – try googling “netherland peat subsidence”’
p1 you clearly don’t have a clue about how water is managed. You look at one little part of the picture, looking for the bad part because that is where you lachrymose nature always lead you, and declare LOOK! the whole thing is broken. Pathetic.
No system is perfect. Sometimes Holland has to manage floods. Sometimes Holland has to manage droughts. Sometimes Holland has to manage too much surface water. Sometimes Holland has to manage not enough surface water. Sometimes Holland has too much water. Sometimes Holland has not enough water. Sometimes one part of Holland has too much water. Sometimes another part at the same time has too little water. Sometimes Holland has to manage discharge from groundwater. Sometimes Holland has to manage recharge of groundwater. This is one of my cousin’s specialities, BTW. In fact he makes a good living out of it.
The Dutch water regime is hugely complex. It is subject to massive shifts in weather, in the behaviour of the sea in terms of pressure on water lens, for example.
And, yes, yes, yes. From time to time ANY of the above elements can and do go pear-shaped. But what do you do? You rush to any broken bit and declare that the whole is irretrievably broken and totally unsustainable. We will all be extinct in decades and this is yet another example of why. Right?
The Zuider Zee is a classic bit of Dutch history. You should read about it. In a nutshell, a congruence of river channels, inlets, swamps, land subsidence and peat harvesting created a brand new sea in Holland – the Zuyder Zee. So the Dutch built polders and eventually one of the engineering marvels of the world: the Afsluitdyke and reclaimed most of it to form some of the most productive farmland in the world.
But you would then have done what you routinely do now. You would have looked at the Zuyder Zee and yelled ‘Catastrophe!’
Good to see you back in the saddle, ratsak. 🙂
Greensborough Growler @ #1803 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 9:28 pm
Gratuitous advice warning.
bemused’s aim is to drag you down to his level of stupidity, where he can beat you with experience.
Fly higher, comrade! 🙂
Bill should have said to Leigh Sales:
‘S44 is so yesterday. How about you ask me about current affairs?’ 🙂
bemused is a drip. 🙂
jenauthor @ #1562 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 5:56 pm
Jen
The thing about sciences is that unlike with humanities you are required to learn and memorise specific facts and to structure them into you certainty framework. This is not the case with history where other than very specific bits of data the point is to tease out reasons etc, rather than facts.
To use a personal anecdote, I learned chemistry with nice little electron orbiting around the nucleus. Neat and tidy and easy to remember.
However the newere ideas of probability type waves do not sit comfortably with me. I understand them in my head but my heart rejects them.
More or less with any science “experts” do their best work in their 20s, then they spend the next 40 years defending their pitch, convincing everyone why they were right. The new young guns come along and challenge them, then 30 years on they are just as intransigent and set in their ways.
Now if you spent 20 years studying the uptake on ion particles into beetroot tissues and developed a theory – say membrane transfer by osmosis, if someone comes along and says no it is via golgi bodies or mitochondia or vesiculation, you will hate to see your life’s work thrown on the scrap heap.
With humanities it is much less cut and dried. There is always an element of truth in your research so the whole lot is not binned. Moreover in many areas such as political science or literature, events change so there is always new stuff to write about. In science much, much less so. You see it all the time – Doctors slow to accept new treatments, anthropologist arguing till they are blue in the face re out of Africa theories, causes of diseases etc. Of course not everyone is like this but “experts often will have the greatest vested interest in an outdated theory.
dead-eyes dutton trying to label shorten as ‘shifty’ is a clue of how the LNP is going to play the election. it’s going to be dirty tricks all the way.
if shorten keeps giving speeches like the one he gave tonight he’s gunna be fine.
I reckon he should challenge Turnbull to some public debates on the budget and the future of the nation.
next newspoll 54:46 labor:lib.
“adrian says:
Thursday, May 10, 2018 at 8:21 pm
You think?
She’s just gone feral re citizenship.
”
No she did not. The interviewer was good & the interviewee is also very good.
Fess,
We were all saying way back before 2013 that this mob would fail at government massively because it was obvious that they hadn’t done a single minute’s work on policy development post Howard losing his seat. Their failure has it’s seeds back in Brendan Nelson’s time and there’s no evidence to suggest they’ll make any better fist of opposition next time.
Labor has clearly not fallen for the same error. The Libs are going to suffer enormously for their folly and incompetence unless a black swan comes along.
Boerwar @ #1805 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 9:34 pm
Again and again, when you cannot refute the argument, you return to this strawman. I don’t really know why, but it certainly does you no credit.
sustainable future says:
Thursday, May 10, 2018 at 9:38 pm
“next newspoll 54:46 labor:lib.”
No it will not be that. It will be closer to 51-49
Ratsak:
Ta for the acknowledgement. You stoutly argued against me last year that the law wasn’t settled in Canavan.
The extraordinary thing is there are some on here, professed lawyers, who wish to continue to suggest such a thing, even in the face of the very short and simple judgment in Gallagher.
Cheers Cat. I need to spend less time here, but when Bill ritualistically humiliates Trumble it’s always worth poppin in.
Player One @ #1807 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 9:35 pm
Love your work. Obviously inspired by a savant.
The trick bemused uses to get to his victims is to have posters like me respond to his outrageous slurs against PB women which means his posts get included in the thread.
It’s nasty and should not be tolerated.
But,
I’m not the moderator.
Leading story in the Daily Telecrap: something about NRL. Bill’s Budget Reply is in the next rank: “Mine’s bigger than your’s”.
guytaur @ #1725 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 8:30 pm
I hope that if this man ever gets his way a homeless person rips out his currant of a heart and eats it for breakfast!
ratsak:
I’ve been saying it since well before 2013 with the added bonus that the party needs to be more representative of the community it purports to represent. We’ve all heard the PvO stats on how pale, male and stale the coalition partyroom is, but that was laid obvious and exposed to anyone who saw the balcony view of the HoR chamber sweeping in to watch Shorten’s budget reply speech. Row upon row of suits on the govt side, not that because there are women on the Labor side.
I’m not sure Newspoll is worth the hype since it’s turned to respondent allocations for 2PP
ratsak @ #1817 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 9:42 pm
We know that, wherever you may be, you will always be fighting the good fight, with choice words for the Tories. Go well. 🙂
Welcome, even for a short time, rat.
I don’t think Newspoll will move much, if at all, in the short term.
Partly due to the lack of volatility and just too much information.
4 members to loose in one week is also something for the electorate to work though.
But I can see another 53-46 or worse later in the year.
It’s impossible to comprehend just how incompetent Morrison is. While he was playing with himself, Labor was building up its war chest. Didn’t the moron see what was going to happen? The libs would have been a lot, lot smarter to have have offered no tax cuts and gone pious about fiscal consolidation. Too late. They can’t unscramble this omelette.
Close Ven, but it’ll be 50/50
sustainable future @ #1794 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 9:23 pm
Good one!
Might not be a joke. He is just a sprightly young man of 70 or so. Costello is just a teenager.
p1
You repeatedly predicted human extinction with decades.
It does not matter what the issue is, or where it is located, or what the relationship is of the parts to the whole, you see catastrophe.
You simply ignore any and all advances in any and all technologies.
You simply ignore anything good and anything positive.
I have never seen you mention anything positive in any of your posts.
Not once.
So, you look at Dutch water management and the consequences for Dutch productivity and what what is your reponse? It is doomed! Do you look at the whole? No. Because on the whole it is working, like Dutch water management has been working for a thousand years.
Did the dykes fail sometimes?
Yes.
Were the immediate consequences catastrophic?
Yes.
Were the dykes fixed?
Yes.
Do you squirrel around to find a problem with a temporary recharge/discharge balance in groundwater?
You sure do.
And what is your fixed conclusion?
You yell catastrophe.
GetUp! are running an excellent campaign called Future To Fight For. GetUp! are proposing a suite of policies that are based on a correct understanding of Australia’s monetary arrangements. Labor and the Greens need to get up to speed on this and adopt the policies described in this campaign.
https://futuretofightfor.org.au/
https://www.facebook.com/GetUpAustralia/videos/10155242023381455/
If you say so ven.
GG
So true
I tried to give Bemused a fair go but got fed up with his constant nastiness ans intransigence.
It is sad because he is not a bad guy, just has the social skills of a gnat.
Shorten’s speech also likely put paid to the Business Council’s plans for its advertising blitz in favour of the tax cuts – the albatross is very fat and heavy … and it’s dead carcass stinks to high heaven
KayJay @ #1649 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 7:53 pm
No, just German. 😛
Nicholas
The Greens are there already. Di Natale wants to double Newstart or something like that. The details of costing and funding don’t matter. The Greens are so far down the tunnel of making up trillions that they don’t even bother with that bit of reality any more.
But Di Natale seems to have forgotten that with everyone on a UBI there will be no need for any Newstart. OBE. Whoops!
Poor old Di Natale is getting tangled up in all his trillion dollar giveaways .
The trouble with the Libs is that they believe their own publicity, inspired and encouraged by the circle jerk that is the CPG.
Hubris in every word, every gesture, every smirk of self satisfaction.
Jen:
Great point. I’d forgotten about that self-congratulatory tour of the country by the BCA.
Geez jenauthor, you’ve caught the apostrophe disease!
daretotread. @ #1827 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 9:48 pm
Labor says “Make my Day”!
Find him a safe seat!
Bit of cool reflection needed here on PB. I recognise a speech like that is designed to rouse the base, and it certainly will do so, but winning an election is another story entirely.
Nothing that occurred this evening guarantees victory for Labor. That is the brutal truth.
The Liberals and most of our media will stop at nothing to ensure Labor does not win. Nothing is off limits, I can assure of that.
The libs would have been a lot, lot smarter to have have offered no tax cuts and gone pious about fiscal consolidation.
They would have been a lot smarter to just say the improving economy means the need for business tax cuts isn’t as great as it was previously (bullshit, bullshit) and turned that into reverses of spending cuts and some minor income tax cuts.
The ONLY point for the morons is to find a way to steal the next election. Big business and high income earners aren’t voting Labor so they should have just said ‘we tried, but if you want the lollies you have to shut up and let us bribe the votes we need to get back in’.
It is a perfect measure of exactly how stupid these dopes are that they not only failed to pull the business tax cut rug out from under Bill, but they’ve then gone and added the most counter productive virtue signaling of massive tax cuts to the over $87k brigade that are simply never going to be enacted. Trumble and Morrison thought this was a masterstroke. That’s how stupid it is.
Not a good way. A better way.
To sum up: Shorten played a blinder tonight.
Good night Ten Dollar Man: hung on the petard of huge tax cuts to the Big End of Town.
Di Natale looks increasingly like some fringe lunatic, desperately clutching at the youf vote.
But Shorten has some very, very nice real things for young people on offer.
Not trillions, true. No, not trillions.
But real stuff. Real reforms. Life changing reforms.
With more to come.
Here is a little prediction: Shorten will lift Newstart rates.
So Coorey reckons the libs are inching closer to getting their Flat Tax some time in the term after the next one (or perhaps the one after) through the Senate cross bench.
Is that going to be before or after they get the Business Tax cut that they were inching toward success through?
‘Desert Qlder says:
Thursday, May 10, 2018 at 9:59 pm
Bit of cool reflection needed here on PB. I recognise a speech like that is designed to rouse the base, and it certainly will do so, but winning an election is another story entirely.
Nothing that occurred this evening guarantees victory for Labor. That is the brutal truth.
The Liberals and most of our media will stop at nothing to ensure Labor does not win. Nothing is off limits, I can assure of that.’
Well, true about the Liberal bastardry. Goes without saying, really.
daretotread. @ #1831 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 9:53 pm
Don’t apologise for or forgive the stalkers.
I really don’t agree with most of what you post.
But, have no issue with you posting,
Ratsak got it right.
The Tories spent six years in opposition with the sole aim of destroying a Labor Government.
Like the dog that caught the car they didn’t know what to do when they won so asked their mates at the IPA and the BCA and other employer bodies, and their rich mates what they would like.
They delivered it and then shock, horror, found that none of the ideas worked.
Funny that.
So they are playing catchup, grabbing any idea in a desperate hope that maybe it might work.
Mea Culpa Adrian! It’s easy to its wrong
Lol, watching Shortens speech again. The “tax cuts” theme should have been the basis of a drinking game. Speech is better 2nd time round as can appreciate the humour more. Comes across as a nit of a “sorry..not sorry Malcolm…..going to eviscerate you”
Boerwar @ #1828 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 9:49 pm
No I didn’t. You just make stuff up when you want to.
I’ve tried and tried to get you too look this up for yourself, because it would have been less embarrassing for you, but you are clearly so full of yourself you won’t even bother to do the simplest research.
Here is what the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency says:
http://www.pbl.nl/en/news/newsitems/2016/subsidence-of-peatlands-leads-to-high-costs
But don’t worry, Boerwar. This will not affect you. You’ll be long dead by the time things get serious, so why fret about it?
“The Liberals and most of our media will stop at nothing to ensure Labor does not win. Nothing is off limits, I can assure of that.’”
All Good. We will cane the bastards anyway. Such is the joy to Fight Tories. 🙂