With Newspoll holding its fire ahead of tonight’s budget, the one new federal poll for the week is the regular fortnightly result from Essential Research – which, The Guardian reports, has maintained its recent form in recording Labor’s lead unchanged at 53-47. Primary votes to follow with the publication of the full report later today. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull on 40% approval (up one) and 42% disapproval (steady), Bill Shorten on 37% approval (up two) and 41% disapproval (down two), and Turnbull leading 40-26 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 41-26 last time.
As related in The Guardian’s report, other questions relate to what respondents would like in the budget, of which the most interesting findings would seem to be an 11% increase for “assistance for the unemployed” compared with last year, along with 8% increases for age pensions, affordable housing and assistance for the needy. The most favoured categories overall are health care, age pensions, education and affordable housing; the least favoured are foreign aid, business assistance and the military. Eighteen per cent expect the budget to be good for them personally (up eight on last year) compared with 24% for bad (down six), and 39% now rate the economy good (up six since November) compared with 24% for bad.
Note also the post below this one on the looming Western Australian state by-election in Darling Range.
UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation down two to 6%.
I am pleased ABC 24 is showing this speech from Hillary Clinton.
GetUP! tweets
GREAT NEWS. @billshortenmp says he’ll Save Our ABC. #budgetreply #budget2018
P1 reckons that we will all be extinct within decades unless the world does what she wants!
And that Holland is depleting its ground water!
True!
Also that we should generate more CO2 by burning more gas to fix, uh… too much CO2.
don @ #1607 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 6:54 pm
I’m sorry, but you are simply a fool. Google is your friend on this. Ask someone how to use it.
P1 has to be male.
No woman could ever be as stupid as that.
Michael Pacci reporting that Pauline Hanson does not agree with the flat tax rate the Liberals want. Same with Hinch and Storer. It looks like the government is not going to get it through the Senate.
I just watched Bill on 7.30. I loved the endng, he slapped Sales in the face with a wet fish, and signed off with his 10 million Australians better off message.
Bill has the wind in his sails and is racing for home.
Player One @ #1744 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 8:48 pm
Gratuitous advice warning.
BW’s aim is to bog you down in the quagmire of detail.
Fly higher, comrade!
You are good enough to do that..
Fly higher, comrade!
The full text of Shorten’s S44 response was aired including that he referred to ALP processes hence his confidence
The ALP had a process signed off by the best available legal advice
Shorten also referred to opinion of several experts which I gather would replicate the opinion of the expert interviewed on the ABC TV breakfast program this morning
This media response is the same as the references to Keating and his “banana republic” comment in that the factors which were addressed in the lead up to that description of where Australia may trend economically were ignored and only “Banana Republic” was reported, which was a total misrepresentation of what was said
Because of ……. what we need to do is …. otherwise we run the risk of becoming a banana republic
Because of processes and legal advice I am confident
So why no focus on “and the High Court will so find” by our Solicitor prime minister, Mr HIH?
MSM – and the ABC, unfortunately
The other question is if the Conservatives DNA is to reduce tax, what is the ultimate outcome?
That no one pays tax?
And we replicate Greece with hand outs but no revenue because no one pays tax?
If you want to see what Cormann really thinks of this circus check out Charlie Pickering’s show last night for some vision of Matthias in the background as SloMo is in full on snake oil mode.
Very funny.
Sales, being a government propagandist of the lowest order, knew that her only chance to get at Shorten was through the citizenship crap, even though it was totally irrelevant to the point of the interview.
Bill Shorten tweets
1. Bigger, better, fairer tax cuts for 10 million working Aussies.
2. Cutting waiting lists at public hospitals.
3. 20 new MRIs and 500,000 free scans.
4. Scrapping up front fees for 100,000 TAFE places.
5. 200,000 more uni places for young Aussies.
My #budgetreply
“what about people on $200,000?”
They can get stuffed.
Darn, interesting comment re Hanson and Storer on the tax cut:
Michael Pacci reporting that Pauline Hanson does not agree with the flat tax rate the Liberals want. Same with Hinch and Storer. It looks like the government is not going to get it through the Senate.
From Coorey in the AFR:
As the government inches closer to securing Senate crossbench support for the entirety of its package, Mr Shorten did not rule out eventually supporting stages two and three, even though he argued they were not progressive enough.
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/federal-budget-2018-labor-almost-doubles-tax-cut-for-battlers-20180509-h0zvf6
Also the Guardian live blog has an update on Shorten on 730 with a transcript of several questions and answers.
Shorten was well prepared.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/may/10/federal-budget-tax-turnbull-defends-tax-plan-as-shorten-prepares-response-byelection-politics-live
So I wonder if the reply put a very big spanner in Turnbull’s cunning plan for an early election? The next poll or three will be interesting…
Tom.
Has anyone heard from @simonahac. Maybe he is picking himself off the floor, after hearing someone committing to #ZeroEmissions #Renewables #budgetreply
Daily Telegraph pays out ‘substantial’ damages after lying about Mosque Leader to smear Jeremy Corbyn
https://evolvepolitics.com/daily-telegraph-pays-out-substantial-damages-after-lying-about-mosque-leader-to-smear-jeremy-corbyn/
Good evening all,
Good solid campaign launch from Bill Shorten.
BTW, Sally McManus has a new title for Turnbull,
” Ten Buck ” Turnbull.
Cheers.
There are 5 by-elections on the immediate horizon. Surely that has to be a catalyst in calling an election?
don
p1’s usual pattern is to get some of the basics wrong, ignore all evidence to the contrary, shift the goal posts when caught in being wrong, instruct you to re-read her inconsistent posts, insist you read her selected experts, and then to tell you go and do some research.
When all this inevitably fails the snarkometer gets ratcheted up. Snarks are generally cast in schoolmarm tututting manner.
You are about to be sent to the naughty corner.
doyley
‘Ten buck Turnbull’
Ooooh. Yes!
ten buck turnbull vrs fifty dollar Bill?
Confessions
That grinding sound you can hear is knives being sharpened in Menzies House.
Ten Buck Turnbull.
That is pretty dam good. Sally McManus can be cruel.
Matthew CanavanVerified account@mattjcan
Shorten’s tax cuts are about as believable as his guarantee that no Labor MPs had citizenship issues
Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
4m4 minutes ago
Or as believable as the PMs proclamation that the High Court would rule in Barnaby Joyce’s favour….none of you lot are exactly oozing credibility
Harbourside mansion, ten buck Turnbull. To drive it home.
”
Lovey says:
Thursday, May 10, 2018 at 6:28 pm
Ven
I did, I think he is quite right, too. But I also thought, are we really that bad?
”
Waleed article is about the MPs/ Senators who are caught in Dual Citizenship imbroglio belong to Anglo-Saxon-Celtic background & why it so.
Huge majority of Australians are not bad. It is just that some of them are misled by people like Abbott, Hanson, Christensen, Dutton
Thanks Fess
Turnbull has three options.
1. retire now and claim he’s been a total boon to Autralia.
2. Go for an election in August/September fighting the good fight.
3. Get done over in December killing season.
“So I wonder if the reply put a very big spanner in Turnbull’s cunning plan for an early election? ”
Don’t know. I reckon that the Gov will want to go with the by elections and test the waters re: ALP sympathising piranha density. Good news for the Gov in terms of a swing and they will hit the polls soonest. Bad news and they will drag things out and hope something….anything….happens along to rescue them.
Boerwar @ #1642 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 7:49 pm
You clearly don’t understand the difference between groundwater, surface water, and sea-water. It is pointless arguing with you if you don’t understand such basics.
You could use google to learn a few things about your beloved homeland. I’ll give you a hint – try googling “netherland peat subsidence”
PvO unshackled from Sky News is just brilliant. Taking the stick to the numpty wing of the Liberals.
A slightly more intellectual equivalent of the Republican’s David Frum.
Psyclaw at 6.05:
[Writing after Canavan’s case she said “The exception is where a foreign country does not allow its citizenship to be renounced”. She was referring there to when reasonable steps would suffice. This was the law then.
However the law has been restated, and has been further refined and in fact extended by Gallagher’s case. Now, the-reasonable-steps-taken provision not only applies when foreign countries flat out do not allow renunciation, it also applies to foreign countries who may well allow renunciation, but the required processes are “insurmountable”.
So after Canavan, “reasonable steps taken” would apply to country X whose laws say that citizenship can never be renounced. But since Gallagher yesterday, “reasonable steps taken” also applies to country Y which whilst allowing renunciation of citizenship requires the dual citizen to reside in that country for the 10 years leading up to renunciation (am insurmountable requirement).]
Your claim that Gallagher’s case extends the law is rubbish. What the HC said in Gallagher about irremediable circumstances (such as the example you give of needing to live there for 10 years before renunciation) simply repeated what was said (by Dawson, I think) in Sykes and affirmed in Canavan.
In any event, since such an exception could not possibly have applied in Gallagher, anything even the HC said about it were it novel would strictly be orbiter dictum and non-binding.
The fact is the Constitutional imperative was worked out in previous cases and there is not so much as a dot of novelty in the decision in Gallagher.
Which leads me to this:
[Windhover
“The HC would have needed to completely rewrite Re Canavan and Sykes to avoid her disqualification. A quantum change to the interpretation of s.44 completely, not a limited extension.”
You have really belled the cat now Windhover. That is a totally nonsense statement out of la la land (not the movie!) and I certainly do not have the time or inclination to correct such a vastly incorrect view.]
It is very disappointing when one as legally talented as you cannot trouble yourself with what should be a very easy refutation of my “total nonsense”.
If it were total nonsense.
At least. Disappointment is about as charitable an emotion as I can muster. Far be it for me to suggest more disagreeable possibilities.
Suffice it to say I am not troubled to change my opinion because of the vehemence with which you seek to disparage my opinion (still less concern myself with your ad hominem gratuities).
i
They won’t need by-elections to test the water. They will just have to listen to all the gurgling and flooding noises.
GG:
He will choose option 2.
bw
good conflation of netherlands water issues and by elections 🙂
bw
good conflation of netherlands water issues and by elections 🙂
Geez Stan Grant has turned into a bore.
JD:
That Outline thing has to be the PB find of the decade. I love it.
don @ #1755 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 8:55 pm
I concluded long ago that P1 was not human.
Some kind of bot. Perhaps an experiment in Artificial Intelligence that went off the rails and produced Artificial Stupidity… with added snark.
I got howled down for referring to P1 as it so have played along with ‘her’. 😀
Good Night all.
Its going to be interesting to see the Newspoll post budget now.
Been out and about and away from PB but checked in after Bill demonstrated yet again my basic premise – Brian Trumble is an idiot.
Seriously? You and ScoMo’s cunning plan is to double down again on corporate tax cuts, offer a measly $10 to punters to be paid for by ongoing cuts to the things they like and THEN dream up some Flat Tax idiocy to be handed to the big end of town two elections from now? What kind of fucking mental deficient comes up with shite like this to safe them from nothing but losing polls since the last election? Oh I know an idiot like Brian Trumble.
Of course Shorten and Bowen have blown it to bits. It’s what they do to this government’s budgets every year. s44 is a pain in the arse, but does anyone seriously belief Shorten is anything other than pumped to be out campaigning in Labor seats ending every sentence with ‘we can afford this because we’re not giving away $80 billion to multinationals, big business and the big banks”?
For all the criticisms you can make of Shorten you can’t claim he doesn’t love to be out on the stump. He’s going to be pressing the flesh and I won’t even be surprised to see him out in Mayo to try and make sure Trumble gets no love there either.
We’re in the end game now. The few smart sacrifices Labor made on things like Negative Gearing etc are paying their dividends now.
Also see Windhover about. Congrats. You basically cold have written the Gallagher judgement last year.
Boerwar @ #1753 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 8:55 pm
We both know this is not true. This is your classic strawman because you can’t refute the actual arguments.
Yes, that one is true. Look it up, FFS.
Yes, I have proposed using gas in place of coal, as many advanced economies have done as a means of reducing their total Co2 emissions. You would apparently rather continue to burn coal.
A great comedy evening fellows.
Thank you all immensely. 💤💤💤
any truth in the rumour the Libs are looking at Malaysia and planning to redraft Howard? 🙂
Lee Sales using Shortens previous confidence in the citizenship process in Labor as a test of his character of being honest or not was extremely weak and silly avenue to go down, but I suppose this is what the Liberals are using right now… which is hilarious given their history in the whole saga.
frednk @ #9720 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 9:10 pm
I thought he only gave that bloke begging $5 – but Five Buck
FuckwitTurnbull has little assonance.bemused @ #1790 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 9:17 pm
Thus proving you are a total fuckwit!
All those women that you stalk have blocked you here on PB.
You are talking to yourself.
Boerwar @ #1770 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 9:08 pm
You and don both really have it bad, don’t you? I suppose I should be flattered, but in reality it’s kind of creepy.
Greensborough Growler @ #1798 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 9:24 pm
So you are stupid enough to believe P1 is a woman? Nope.
So that leaves one other person who has blocked me. She of very shallow intellect.