Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Labor maintains its existing lead in the latest Essential poll, despite improving perceptions on the outlook for the economy.

With Newspoll holding its fire ahead of tonight’s budget, the one new federal poll for the week is the regular fortnightly result from Essential Research – which, The Guardian reports, has maintained its recent form in recording Labor’s lead unchanged at 53-47. Primary votes to follow with the publication of the full report later today. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull on 40% approval (up one) and 42% disapproval (steady), Bill Shorten on 37% approval (up two) and 41% disapproval (down two), and Turnbull leading 40-26 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 41-26 last time.

As related in The Guardian’s report, other questions relate to what respondents would like in the budget, of which the most interesting findings would seem to be an 11% increase for “assistance for the unemployed” compared with last year, along with 8% increases for age pensions, affordable housing and assistance for the needy. The most favoured categories overall are health care, age pensions, education and affordable housing; the least favoured are foreign aid, business assistance and the military. Eighteen per cent expect the budget to be good for them personally (up eight on last year) compared with 24% for bad (down six), and 39% now rate the economy good (up six since November) compared with 24% for bad.

Note also the post below this one on the looming Western Australian state by-election in Darling Range.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation down two to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,901 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Windhover,
    We’re going to have to agree to disagree. I’m done arguing the fundamentals of the doctrine of precedent with you.

  3. Lovey,
    As the highest court, the High Court, by definition, can never be “wrong” in law. Its reasoning can be criticised, though.

  7. P1:

    Nothing the Netherlands does should come as a surprise. For air pollution, water pollution, biodiversity loss and groundwater depletion they are an environmental disaster area. But I’m sure they produce a lot of tomatoes!

    For P1, who can’t even get the groundwater situation in the Netherlands right.

    For the record, they have lots of groundwater, I have bicycled through there on the way from Amsterdam to Copenhagen, and I am here to tell you that the groundwater is rarely very far from the surface – it is often above it!

    They need a drainage system to get rid of the excess.

    http://www.hydrology.nl/images/docs/dutch/key/Groundwater_De_Vries.pdf

    The subsurface of the Netherlands is, from a hydrogeological viewpoint, dominated by a regional aquifer, consisting of medium-grained Plio-Pleistocene fluvial sand with a thickness ranging from 25 to 250 m. The aquifer is at the surface in the eastern half of the country and dips below semi-confining layers of lagoonal clay and peat in the western coastal area. The groundwater table is close to the surface almost everywhere and the precipitation surplus of about 300 mm/a is discharged by a dense and largely artificial drainage system. Most of the western half of the country is below sea level and consists of a patchwork of polders, each with its own artificially controlled level of surface water and groundwater. This has resulted in
    a complex system of infiltration into relatively elevated polders and in discharge by diffuse upward leakage of fresh and brackish water into deep polders. The eastern half of the country
    comprises (i) shallow aquifers in level areas, which are drained by seasonally contracting and expanding stream systems, and (ii) deep aquifers in more elevated areas with hardly any
    surface drainage and a groundwater table that reacts predominantly on annual variations in rainfall. A total volume of the order of 1700 million m3 of fresh groundwater is annually extracted in the Netherlands; about 60% of this is used for public water supply.

  8. Retain this. @brayyshawA “live bog” is a very appropriate description of anything coming from The Australian. https://twitter.com/gregbrown_theoz/status/994363500033073152

    Follow PoliticsNow, The Australian’s live bog on the events at Parliament House in Canberra. Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison have been out defending their tax plan before Bill Shorten’s budget reply speech tonight #auspol https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/politicsnow-live-news-video-from-house-of-reps-the-senate/news-story/d62ffa3923c2e416eedbd9acf47db6fa

  9. Did any PB blogger read Waleed Aly’s article today in SMH?

    It is neither necessary nor fashionable to read, or to have read Waleed. It is only necessary to claim to have read Waleed, and to have agreed with him. And then only in certain circles.

    For my own part, I see Waleed as a small-timer in an expensive suit, a Liberal urger, a silver-tongued tout: one who pretends to have tapped The Pulse Of The Nation, but is really only just a suburban boy made good. Fashionable, but – Waleed being part of the TEN stable of losers – able to be overlooked without too much embarrassment, or really even a second thought. Has he ever had an original, or even a clever (as opposed to too-clever-by-half) thought?

    A bit like Julian Assange used to be, actually, until he was exposed as just another grubby little right-wing shit: out for his own self-aggrandizement, but ultimately just a bit of belly fluff ready to be dug out of the World’s navel and flicked away.

  11. BB
    I remember Waleed showed his true colours when he said he wouldnt buy a second hand car from Shorten let alone make him PM. Wasnt interested in anything he had to say after that.

  12. If you’re referring to my dislike for Waleed Aly, I’m glad you’re glad.

    He is one of the great imposters of the modern Australian discourse.

  18. Scott Morrison holds Cook with a 2PP of 65%. He won’t be losing his seat. The seat is based on Cronulla, classic aspirational territory, people who want to live in Wentworth or Warringah but can’t afford to (yet).

  19. I remember Waleed showed his true colours when he said he wouldn’t buy a second hand car from Shorten let alone make him PM. Wasn’t interested in anything he had to say after that.

    I didn’t hear him say that, but it doesn’t surprise me in the least.

    He rarely says anything original, or even interesting. It sounds alright on first reading (he’s a good wordsmith), but the content is straight-down-the-line mundane and quite conservative.

    Waleed’s product is “Waleed”: the Thinking Man’s Muslim.

  21. I think a quote from Henry VI is apt for today’s discussion – if only RDN could be King! And Dick is the people.

    JACK CADE. I fear neither sword nor fire.

    SMITH [aside]. He need not fear the sword; for his coat is of proof.

    DICK [aside]. But methinks he should stand in fear of fire, being burnt i’ th’hand for stealing of sheep.

    JACK CADE. Be brave, then; for your captain is brave, and vows reformation. There shall be in England seven half-penny loaves sold for a penny: the three-hoop’d pot shall have ten hoops; and I will make it felony to drink small beer: all the realm shall be in common; and in Cheapside shall my palfrey go to grass: and when I am king,- as king I will be,-

    ALL. God save your majesty!

    JACK CADE. I thank you, good people:- there shall be no money; all shall eat and drink on my score; and I will apparel them all in one livery, that they may agree like brothers, and worship me their lord.

    DICK. The first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers.

  22. Hes thinks hes a bit of a preacher with his right wing opinionated monologues.Channel 10 employ Steve Price for Christs sake.Say no more.

  26. I lost any respect for Waleed some years ago when Turnbull was comms minister and Waleed demonstrated utter incompetence failing to see what was wrong with FTTN. Pathetic. Lame lazy.

  27. I am finding the language being used, particularly by the ABC over the last couple of day interesting. Expected the Australian to go into hysterical “Kill Bill” mode which they have over the S44 stuff. Paul Kellys piece is silly.

    But the language used about Shorten by Jennet and Probyn has a really scathing tone to it. They are clearly trying to push emotional buttons to damage Shorten in trying to make a case that this is some major stuff up and dishonesty by Shorten?? Its nothing like it.

    There were questions over eligibility. They were referred to the HC which has ruled on a particular circumstance and how the law applies. ALP was entitled to ask the question and await the ruling before any action. simple.

    The media are trying to paint shorten badly over this but NONE of them ever make any reference to Turnbulls “The HC WILL SO Rule!!” assertion when Barnyard was dragged screaming and Kicking into the HC?? Or the refusal of a party with such a proven bad record on S44 matters NOT referring their own who have questions to answer??

    Disturbing bias on the part of the ABC. Will be interesting how they report the budget in reply??

  29. Steve777 @ #1618 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 7:10 pm

    Scott Morrison holds Cook with a 2PP of 65%. He won’t be losing his seat. The seat is based on Cronulla, classic aspirational territory, people who want to live in Wentworth or Warringah but can’t afford to (yet).

    Those I know tend to be aggressively proud of being Shire people, and display an intolerance of the left bordering on hate.

  31. Any chance for the ABC to stick it to Labor they will do with much gusto, this is what is called “balance” these days.

  32. A sea of men on the govt benches. The lack of women coalition MPs is stark when you have a balcony view of the chamber.

  33. “Kevin Rudd to give evidence in class action over failed pink batts scheme”

    The Housing Insulation Program was a great success, both in terms of employing skilled and semi skilled workers during the Global Financial Crisis and through energy savings. Unfortunately a number of dodgy private operators cut corners and industrial accidents resulted in some deaths. Probably fewer than would have resulted had measures in Abbott’s 2014 Budget been passed.

    Please do not repeat Murdoch-Liberal memes.

  42. ‘don says:
    Thursday, May 10, 2018 at 6:54 pm

    P1:

    Nothing the Netherlands does should come as a surprise. For air pollution, water pollution, biodiversity loss and groundwater depletion they are an environmental disaster area. But I’m sure they produce a lot of tomatoes!

    For P1, who can’t even get the groundwater situation in the Netherlands right. ‘

    Yep.

    P1’s snarks are getting snarkier and snarkiere.

    One of my cousins is a water engineer in Holland. On my last visit we had a couple of lengthy discussions about global warming and water management in the Netherlands. The amount of effort required to stop P1’s ‘depleted’ ground water from drowning the country is stupendous.

  50. Shorten putting down the Libs in equal measure with announcing positives. Good to see.
    Seems to me a much less “polite” speech than i have seen him give in this context before. Good to see….game on people.

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