With Newspoll holding its fire ahead of tonight’s budget, the one new federal poll for the week is the regular fortnightly result from Essential Research – which, The Guardian reports, has maintained its recent form in recording Labor’s lead unchanged at 53-47. Primary votes to follow with the publication of the full report later today. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull on 40% approval (up one) and 42% disapproval (steady), Bill Shorten on 37% approval (up two) and 41% disapproval (down two), and Turnbull leading 40-26 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 41-26 last time.
As related in The Guardian’s report, other questions relate to what respondents would like in the budget, of which the most interesting findings would seem to be an 11% increase for “assistance for the unemployed” compared with last year, along with 8% increases for age pensions, affordable housing and assistance for the needy. The most favoured categories overall are health care, age pensions, education and affordable housing; the least favoured are foreign aid, business assistance and the military. Eighteen per cent expect the budget to be good for them personally (up eight on last year) compared with 24% for bad (down six), and 39% now rate the economy good (up six since November) compared with 24% for bad.
Note also the post below this one on the looming Western Australian state by-election in Darling Range.
UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation down two to 6%.
Spr
Hilarious!
jenauthor @ #1546 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 5:39 pm
Jen
I think in the sciences this is much, much less the case. Moreover when one is an “expert” it is hard to let go.
Windhover @ 12.31pm
“The decision itself says nothing more than repeat the decision in Canavan.”
You’ve repeated statement this several times in the last 24 hours. It is wrong. You need to carefully read both cases.
Sprocket @ #1549 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 5:40 pm
Sprocket
Oh dear! Barnaby looks a little deranged.
BW:
[Jen
I have an alphabet soup after my name and consider it to be virtually meaningless.
The problem with expert views is how to assess which of their views are a crock and which not.]
Exactly.
The alfalfa that is or isn’t after BW is irrelevant here. BW’s opinions stand (or fall in the case of Bob Dylan) on the strength (or weakness) of the smoke rings of his mind as deciphered on PB.
Oh dear! Barnaby looks a little deranged.
___
So he’s returned to his normal self then?
Just catching up.
Psychlaw:
[Windhover @ 12.31pm
“The decision itself says nothing more than repeat the decision in Canavan.”
You’ve repeated statement this several times in the last 24 hours. It is wrong. You need to carefully read both cases.]
Thanks for the tip.
Care to tell me which part of which case I ought to read carefully.
Or even, you know, tell me where in my analysis of Re Gallagher I have gone wrong?
Waiting . . .
BK @ #1538 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 2:33 pm
I visited the site about 15 years ago and my memory was of area little developed, why would you want to spoil that?
Maybe they will follow the British example and incorporate a theme park into it like at Land’s End.
Windhover,
I can assure you that I’m a lawyer. I’m also well aware that Gallagher’s lawyers didn’t ask the Court to reverse Re Canavan – for exactly the reason that you give. But the way you’re reading the reasons in Re Canavan makes it clear that you’re not a lawyer: reasons aren’t meant to be parsed as though they’re legislation. It may be “pointless” to criticise Re Gallagher given that it now represents the law, but you’re reading history backwards to say that it was pointless to even run the case: nothing that was said in Re Canavan precluded the arguments made in Re Gallagher. Ultimately, the Court decided that the “constitutional imperative” it found (to use a neutral term – I might say conjured up) in Re Canavan didn’t extend to the circumstances of Gallagher’s case.
“One of the things that you do in Govt when you’ve got someone that you think is going against you, is that you cut their funding. That’s why the @AusHumanRights’ funding has been cut, and the ABC” @Graemeinnes #Budget2018 #TheDrum https://twitter.com/ABCthedrum/status/994121167307866112/photo/1
DTT – you could be right about some sciences. Or it is more perhaps that new learning/discoveries/theories take time to filter through the system
daretotread. @ #1551 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 2:42 pm
Sounds like a pretty poor scientific expert.
Michael Faraday
Sprocket says:
Thursday, May 10, 2018 at 5:40 pm
An interesting image from the Nationals press conference today..
Why is that photo of Barnaby interesting?
Isn’t that how he always looks when a woman is present?
daretotread. says:
Thursday, May 10, 2018 at 5:42 pm
…
I think in the sciences this is much, much less the case. Moreover when one is an “expert” it is hard to let go.
They have trouble moving back to ill informed nonsense. I would hope so.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/10/budget-cuts-are-an-attempt-to-bully-the-abc-into-silence?CMP=share_btn_tw
First Budget reply leak.
Labor Following Vic Govt lead on scrapping Tafe fees
The ABC, foreign aid and ASIC cuts will come back to haunt the Liberals and Turnbull in particular. The last vestige of ‘leather jacket’ has turned to dust.
Any response to the Bank RC can be contrasted by Labor with the ASIC cuts.
The amounts are relatively small and shows them for what they are.
Given the improved receipts they weren’t necessary. This government simply doesn’t care.
Another thing the ABC could do for the Nats is cut some regional programs.
Lovey 1.58pm
No Professor Twomey’s view has not changed.
Writing after Canavan’s case she said “The exception is where a foreign country does not allow its citizenship to be renounced”. She was referring there to when reasonable steps would suffice. This was the law then.
However the law has been restated, and has been further refined and in fact extended by Gallagher’s case. Now, the-reasonable-steps-taken provision not only applies when foreign countries flat out do not allow renunciation, it also applies to foreign countries who may well allow renunciation, but the required processes are “insurmountable”.
So after Canavan, “reasonable steps taken” would apply to country X whose laws say that citizenship can never be renounced. But since Gallagher yesterday, “reasonable steps taken” also applies to country Y which whilst allowing renunciation of citizenship requires the dual citizen to reside in that country for the 10 years leading up to renunciation (am insurmountable requirement).
Unless s44 is changed, we can look forward to further refinement down the track to clarify the requirements for the “insurmountable” circumstance to be activated.
This is no big deal. It is not unusual. It is the everyday garden variety process of developing case based law.
Re Sprocket #1549 @5:40PM Now there’s a bunch you wouldn’t want to come across in a dark alley.
The Gallery are freaking out over by elections and leadership. Yawn. They are wrong.
The ALP will hold their four seats, easily. The Libs have a real chance in Mayo with Downer. The NX brand is heading towards Clive Palmer territory. An extra seat for Malcolm, but no consequence.
Thus, no leadership change. The next election will be April or May. Absolutely no chance of a Federal election this year.Zero.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/may/10/aged-care-providers-to-face-inquiry-over-alleged-tax-avoidance
Rex
That will look awful silly if Mr Shorten announces a national electric car project building on states moves already.
The Greens’ plan to get Australia’s electric vehicle future on track
https://greens.org.au/sites/greens.org.au/files/Greens%20EV%20Policy.pdf
W
‘Exactly.
The alfalfa that is or isn’t after BW is irrelevant here. BW’s opinions stand (or fall in the case of Bob Dylan) on the strength (or weakness) of the smoke rings of his mind as deciphered on PB.’
Ah. The smoke rings of the mind. Such a mighty metaphor from the immortal bard. One of his very best. Possibly, surveying the dross of Dylan metaphors, THE best.
Was he watching a mirror one day when an inspirational set blew out of arse?
By way of going one better, this year the Nobel Prize for Literature is not being awarded to anyone.
Toby:
[Windhover,
I can assure you that I’m a lawyer. I’m also well aware that Gallagher’s lawyers didn’t ask the Court to reverse Re Canavan – for exactly the reason that you give. But the way you’re reading the reasons in Re Canavan makes it clear that you’re not a lawyer: reasons aren’t meant to be parsed as though they’re legislation.]
At the risk (certainty?) of boring the PB community I do not care a tit whether you are a lawyer.
Discerning I am not a lawyer because of your assessment that I have read the reasons in Re Canavan “as though parsing legislation” is heroic.
More importantly I note your silence to my response to your claim that [34] was part of the HC’s conclusions, and not part of its reasons.
And as to this:
[It may be “pointless” to criticise Re Gallagher given that it now represents the law, but you’re reading history backwards to say that it was pointless to even run the case: nothing that was said in Re Canavan precluded the arguments made in Re Gallagher. Ultimately, the Court decided that the “constitutional imperative” it found (to use a neutral term – I might say conjured up) in Re Canavan didn’t extend to the circumstances of Gallagher’s case.]
you are just plain wrong.
The HC did NOT decide in Gallagher that the “constitutional imperative” it found in Re Canavan (applying Sykes, not “conjuring up”) did not extend to the circumstances of her case.
Rather, the HC repeated that the constitutional imperative discussed in Re Canavan – that a candidate not be disqualified irremediably because of foreign laws – had no application in Gallagher because the country of which she was a foreign citizen (the UK) was not a country to which the constitutional imperative could be invoked. No need to invoke an “imperative”, no invocation possible.
It is nonsense to suggest the HC “did not extend” the principle to the circumstances of her case.
The HC would have needed to completely rewrite Re Canavan and Sykes to avoid her disqualification. A quantum change to the interpretation of s.44 completely, not a limited extension.
Guytaut@6:01pm
Too right. Could it also be because “they are dead to” one specific Minister?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/10/vicforests-banned-from-logging-greater-glider-habitat-pending-legal-challenge?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Coming up on @SBSNews – my exclusive TV interview with the man who sparked the dual citizenship crisis – and the warning he has for not just the ‘Citizenship 15’ but former politicians too – 630pm #auspol https://twitter.com/Rashidajourno/status/994484591086813184/photo/1
Did Di Natale just announce that for a mere extra trillion ALL Australian vehicles would be transformed into electric vehicles?
My of my. What a wonderful way he has with the trillions generator.
Or did he not bother his head with, um, the dinero side of things?
Did any PB blogger read Waleed Aly’s article today in SMH?
Anybody have a link (other than facebook) to Bill’s budget reply that will work in Thailand?
Much appreciated xx
‘lizzie says:
Thursday, May 10, 2018 at 6:16 pm
VicForests has been banned from logging in areas of sensitive greater glider habitat in the central highlands until next year, pending the outcome of a legal challenge.
The federal court on Thursday granted an injunction to conservation group Friends of the Leadbeater’s Possum to protect the mountain ash forest until 25 February, when a three-week trial on the validity of the central highlands regional forests agreement (RFA) is due to commence.
Logging was due to start from Friday. ‘
Um. If the RFA is NOT valid then Victoria is untrammelled.
The main reason is that under Hunt and FrythePlanet, responsibility for ensuring compliance with the EPBC Act has quietly been handed over to the states. Further, any possible tergiversation by the states in these matters will go undetected and unpunished because the Feds under Hunt and FrythePlanet have just as quietly destroyed the scientific and technical capacity of the Biodiversity Division of the the Environment Department.
daretotread. @ #1554 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 5:44 pm
Many years ago (about 1968) I was fortunate enough to spend a few overnights in a lockup (Sydney Phillip St & Central).
The photo above would not shame any of my companions, most of whom, in the morning, would pace endlessly from one end of the courtyard to the other, until time to front the beak.
Great photo, (looks like a still from The Usual Suspects) although there were no wimmin in my lockup courtyard.
For contrast, if anybody, apart from me, watches 24 Hours in Police Custody, the difference to my experience and the ones depicted in the TV show are worlds apart. The 24 Hours experience would be the equivalent to a 5 Star Hotel.
And so the world turns. Apollo alone would know what that means. 😇
Don’t worry about Barnaby’s one eye, there are also a couple of bolts missing!
Gecko – ABC & SKy have live … dunno if you can access either where you are
Gecko @ #1583 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 3:19 pm
This should work. 🙂
https://www.aph.gov.au/News_and_Events/Watch_Parliament
Windhover
“The HC would have needed to completely rewrite Re Canavan and Sykes to avoid her disqualification. A quantum change to the interpretation of s.44 completely, not a limited extension.”
You have really belled the cat now Windhover. That is a totally nonsense statement out of la la land (not the movie!) and I certainly do not have the time or inclination to correct such a vastly incorrect view.
If you are a lawyer I suspect you absented yourself from the lectures which covered the skills in reading cases and statutes.
Sorry to be the bearer of such bad tidings.
Gecko @ #1584 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 4:19 pm
Use a VPN client and watch it on ABC iView
Ven
I did, I think he is quite right, too. But I also thought, are we really that bad?
Thanks peeps… I luvs youse all 🙂
Senator Murray Watt tweets
Turnbull’s Budget is less than 2 days old, and the Senate just voted to demand he reverse his big business tax cuts, and his cuts to schools, Medicare and pensions. #flop
FS
The three disturbing things about that image:
1. We can’t see Canavan’s hands.
2. Barnaby’s image has not been digitally altered.
3. McCormack is looking happier than he has for years.
The Greens Clean truck policy
The Au pairs get a bucket and sponge
Psyclaw
I just want to clear things up, are you saying the HC was “wrong” in law or in in conflict with precedent, in this case?
“And do as adversaries do in law. Strive mightily, but eat and drink as friends.”
At the risk of upsetting a few worthy adversaries on here, I recommend that approach.
Gecko @ #1518 Thursday, May 10th, 2018 – 6:29 pm
Earlier today, during my regular Thursday day release, I, together with my very, very favourite daughter visited a local Service Station.
Charlie, the owner, took a break and came to chat with me. For one of those mysteries of live was true.
Charlie and I are friends for ever ( ❓ )
However, Charlie will not let me kiss him. I have to kiss the bestest daughter and she then kisses Charlie.
What then do all these kisses mean ………………………….
Pour vous Gecko 💋💋💋
Tom Walker has a four-letter word to describe Malcolm Turnbull — but not the one you might expect from his alter ego @JonathanPieNews. #OnePlusOne with @JHutcheon, Friday 1pm @ABCTV & Saturday 5.30pm @abcnews https://twitter.com/abcnews/status/994497334821228545/video/1