BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The one new federal poll for this week confirms rather than alters the recent shift back to the Coalition, as recorded by the BludgerTrack aggregate.

ReachTEL’s swing to the Coalition hasn’t shifted BludgerTrack, which had already priced it in based on recent Newspoll results. The Coalition makes a fractional gain on two-party preferred, which translates into a gain of one on the seat projection, that being in New South Wales. Nothing new on the leadership trends this week (I don’t use the ReachTEL numbers for this, because they structure their response options for leadership rating questions differently to other pollsters). Full results from the link below:

Methodological note: As explained on the BludgerTrack methodology page, a pollster’s bias adjustments are based on their historic performance, where there are enough pre-election polls from the pollster to base it on; or, where it isn’t, by comparing their results this term with a trend measure of pollsters in the first category. I have moved ReachTEL from the first category to the second, because it had lately been getting “corrected” for a pro-Coalition bias that its recent results have consistently failed to exhibit.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,099 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. It is almost an existential question.

    If we did not eat chickens there would only be a few thousand scratching for a dismal living in the shrinking jungles of India. Instead of 50 billion chickens a year getting all they can eat, protection from snakes, mongooses and whatever, masses of medicines to keep them healthy, lots of friends, plus warm dry living conditions.

  2. Barney in Go Dau @ #899 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 6:27 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #898 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 3:25 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #896 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 6:24 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #892 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 3:19 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #884 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 6:13 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #878 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 3:06 pm

    It’s good to see Australian Cricketers showing they have more depth as people than has been demonstrated through the “Ball tampering” debate. I’m not a Vegan but I encourage people to put their views.

    https://www.livekindly.co/australian-cricketer-adam-zampa-stars-new-vegan-bus-campaign-we-are-all-animals/

    Yes, so what?

    Some animals eat other animals, some eat plants and some eat both!

    “Love them. Don’t eat them.”

    Is this what Cory was warning us about? 🙂

    It’s actually a young man articulating a firmly held position that he uses as his compass of life. Whether I agree or not, he’s being totally honest and deserves credit. I also put the comment in the context of the “Ball Tampering’ scandal.

    Snark as much as you like, comrade.

    No, snark!

    He can believe what wants, I’m just pointing out that there is no logic in the slogan and the message behind it. 🙂

    As always, you and logic are seeing different people atm.

    Then surely a mental giant such as yourself can point out where it is lacking! 🙂

    The other person has it!

  3. Did someone mention St Julia of Gillard? 🙂

    It was a great week, though, with (Sydney Writers Festival) highlights including a stunning event with Julia Gillard in conversation with ABC journalist Laura Tingle. Gillard was at her best — warm, witty, erudite; filling us all with regret. Why didn’t she show this side of her when she was Prime Minister, would it have made a difference?

    Like many successful people, however, Gillard doesn’t look back and relished talking about her latest project, the Global Institute for Women’s Leadership with Kings College London, where she is the inaugural chair. The institute is looking at obstacles to gender equality and empirical data on which strategies are known to work.

    Interestingly, she said that early research had shown that the current model of unconscious bias training was not very effective and can merely reinforce people’s stereotypes. “We want to do a major evaluation of these programs.”

    She said she was pleased to support the #metoo movement, hoping that it would expand to include non-famous people, “like one of the migrant workers who clean buildings like this one.”

    “If #metoo ultimately makes a big difference, it will mean something for that woman who gets harassed in that workplace.”

    She also discussed the attitudes to Hillary Clinton, who was at the height of her popularity as Secretary of State. This changed when she said “I want to be the boss,” she said.

  4. Boer

    Indeed. Many of our domesticated animals have no true wild equivalents – they’re extinct. To believe that human beings would keep various species going as pets is naive. We can see how quickly breeds die out when they cease to have commercial value – the farmers who do try and keep rare breeds alive encourage people to eat them, as it’s the best way of ensuring the breed’s survival.

    A vegetarian or vegan community wouldn’t tolerate much competition from feral cows etc for their crops – and, of course, would be quite right to exterminate them as non-native animals.

  5. Tricot
    It is an interesting conundrum. But the situation is a bit trickier than that. The wild species is being contaminated genetically by breeding with domestic chickens. The true species is, literally, on the way to extinction.

  6. zoomster
    The thinking of vegetarians and vegans is, literally, vertebratist.
    When they talk about ‘animals’ they are only talking about vertebrate animals.
    They don’t give a toss that millions of individual invertebrates must die in order for vegetarians and vegans to eat.
    And that is before you get to issues such as road kill and habitat destruction and the consequent death to animals.

  7. BiDG
    It is pretty well what the Greens and their NMT voodoo economists propose to do with the economy: eat it in order to save it.

  8. We have canine teeth and grinder molars for a perfectly good reason: we are omnivores. If we only eat meat, we get sick. If we only eat vegies, we get sick. If we eat some of both we stay healthy.

  9. Greensborough Growler @ #904 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 3:31 pm

    Then surely a mental giant such as yourself can point out where it is lacking! 🙂

    The other person has it!

    So, as usual you’re full of it and can’t back your statements up.

    There’s no logic behind the statement,

    … “we are all animals”, features Zampa and the slogan: “Love them. Don’t eat them.”

    We have specific categories for animals that highlights this, carnivore, omnivore and herbivore.

    Humans are omnivore, although there are some people, usually by personal choice, that choose not to eat meat.

    Good luck to them. 🙂

  10. I don’t know enough about this issue to express an opinion. The Greens are unhappy with Labor but that’s nothing new.

    Proposed amendments to the Murray-Darling basin plan that will substitute water efficiency projects instead of buying back 605GL of water look set to survive a challenge in the Senate.

    Labor has decided not to support a disallowance motion that the Greens planned to move on Tuesday after striking a deal with the government.

    This means that the amendments to the southern basin water recovery targets will go forward as proposed by the Murray-Darling Basin Authority.

    But the Greens have accused Labor of having “sold out” and putting “the entire health of the Murray-Darling basin at risk”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/07/murray-darling-basin-plan-labor-to-decide-whether-it-will-back-key-changes

  11. Zoidlord

    Chips ! You cruel bustard, won’t someone think of the plants ? !!!! 🙂
    .
    “BBC – Earth – Plants can see, hear and smell – and respond

    Plants, according to Jack C Schultz, “are just very slow animals”.

    This is not a misunderstanding of basic biology. Schultz is a professor in the Division of Plant Sciences at the University of Missouri in Columbia,”

    http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170109-plants-can-see-hear-and-smell-and-respond

  12. Citizen

    I am on Tony Burke’s mail list so I just received a message explaining Labor’s view on the Murray-Darling changes. He seems happy that he has won concessions though it is mostly beyond my ken.

    Of course the Greens are unhappy. Labor has done a deal with the government. The Greens of course have never, ever done a deal.

  13. Barney in Go Dau @ #921 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 6:47 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #904 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 3:31 pm

    Then surely a mental giant such as yourself can point out where it is lacking! 🙂

    The other person has it!

    So, as usual you’re full of it and can’t back your statements up.

    There’s no logic behind the statement,

    … “we are all animals”, features Zampa and the slogan: “Love them. Don’t eat them.”

    We have specific categories for animals that highlights this, carnivore, omnivore and herbivore.

    Humans are omnivore, although there are some people, usually by personal choice, that choose not to eat meat.

    Good luck to them. 🙂

    You need more roots and vegetables. Bemused recommends himself!

  14. Zoidlord

    A chicken place in Canberra like KFC sells “chicken chippies” which look like potato chips but seem to be made out of chicken mush. Have you tried such a delicacy? (Once is enough for me.)

  15. poroti @ #927 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 4:06 pm

    Zoidlord

    Chips ! You cruel bustard, won’t someone think of the plants ? !!!! 🙂
    .
    “BBC – Earth – Plants can see, hear and smell – and respond

    Plants, according to Jack C Schultz, “are just very slow animals”.

    This is not a misunderstanding of basic biology. Schultz is a professor in the Division of Plant Sciences at the University of Missouri in Columbia,”

    http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170109-plants-can-see-hear-and-smell-and-respond

    Do they die when you pick them?

    Because I’m just about to grate some onions to put in my sausage rolls.

  16. Barney in Go Dau @ #931 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 7:11 pm

    poroti @ #927 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 4:06 pm

    Zoidlord

    Chips ! You cruel bustard, won’t someone think of the plants ? !!!! 🙂
    .
    “BBC – Earth – Plants can see, hear and smell – and respond

    Plants, according to Jack C Schultz, “are just very slow animals”.

    This is not a misunderstanding of basic biology. Schultz is a professor in the Division of Plant Sciences at the University of Missouri in Columbia,”

    http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170109-plants-can-see-hear-and-smell-and-respond

    Do they die when you pick them?

    Because I’m just about to grate some onions to put in my sausage rolls.

    There’s nothing more horrible than hearing a tomato scream!

  17. rossmcg

    There were, IMO, three live options.

    1. Have the NSW and Vic governments walk away from the Plan. This was entirely on the cards, was almost certainly the worst outcome for the environment, and almost certainly the outcome had the Greens had their way. What a surprise.
    2. Reduce the environment target.
    3. Don’t reduce the environment target but offset it by being smart about how to achieve environmental outcomes. This is what has been agreed to.

    So, the usual Greens pointless and destructive wedging of Labor. Meh.

    The argument against 1 and 2 are self-evident. They are FAILs. The argument against 3 is that there is no guarantee that this alternative will deliver the promised outcomes because most of the slated projects are unproven.

    IMO, we have the best of a bad world but at least we have a world.

    We recently drove through much of the width of the MDB. I have been an irrigator, I own irrigation water rights and my extended families used scads of irrigation water.

    IMO global warming will turn the Plan on its arse within a generation.

    There are several reasons. A major one is that small increases in average temperatures in dry spells have an algorithmic impact on run off.

    There were some interesting things to see. One is the age classes in Callitris pines that were able to generate following respectively the introduction of myxo and calici. In places they are like straight lines. The other you could not see: 90-95% of the MDB fish biomass is european carp. The introduction of the carp virus will potentially have an explosive impact on the fish fauna. The third is that the salinity tiger is being ridden, not resolved. The fourth is that there is a direct relationship between low biodiv and high productivity and vice versa. The fifth is that I had a strong feeling of studying stranded assets. The future of food and fibre production will involve neither animals nor vascular plants. It will not involve farms. It will involve factories and it will depend on genetic technologies and hyper-cheap solar energy.

  18. Boerwar @ #895 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 6:23 pm

    Spoke to a farmer from east of Elliston. Wheat/sheep. Quite chirpy. They have had a run of good seasons.
    I mentioned that I had noticed the sheep being hand fed all over the Peninsula. He thought that this season was ‘late’. Like last year. Sowing was being held back. Too dry. But his eyes did light up when he discussed wool prices. He is getting 1600 cents a kilogram.
    That is, nominally, better than the famous pound for a pound.

    A disaster is always good news for someone only interested in making a buck 🙁

  19. You can’t help but think that the Government’s budget Strategy is not going to help them that much.

    So far we have lots of leaks of the alleged goodies. Social Media is all over it. But, Social media has a notoriously short attention span. So, in the end, the Government have given Labor and the various pressure groups time to discern what’s happening and they will be hunting bear tomorrow.

    Sure, there might be a couple of unannounced goodis. But, giving everyone a look see before the event is asking for a bollocking.

    The unicorn called “Budget Bounce’ might be just prancing away in to the forest already.

  20. To Whom It May Concern.
    The Dashboard – Profile refers to

    Profile Picture

    You can change your profile picture on Gravatar.

    Apologies for earlier post concerning Jupiter.

    Although I realize that most posters are scholars of Ancient Greece, my reference was to Ancient Roman Gods.

    I am currently brushing up on my

    •Zeus. God of the Sky (Zoos) …
    •Hera. Goddess of Marriage, Mothers and Families (Hair’-ah) …
    •Poseidon. God of the Sea (Po-sigh’-dun) …
    •Demeter. Goddess of Agriculture (Duh-mee’-ter) …
    •Ares. God of War (Air’-eez) …
    •Athena. Goddess of Wisdom, War, and Useful Arts (Ah-thee’-nah) …
    •Apollo. …
    •Artemis.

    And so to sleep, perchance to …………….(Shakespeare again, dammit).

    Goodnight all. 💤💤💤

  21. I am an omnivore. I enjoy the carnivore side of that. I am on a diet, so I am mostly herbivore at the moment*.

    *note: at the moment!

  22. p1

    You make an excellent point. Whilever you link production to unpredictable high biodiv systems which are in turn locked into the weather, you will have disasters, shortages and high prices.

    The reason that irrigation/low biodiv systems are so popular with investors is that they reduce significantly the risk premiums required to cover high biodiv uncertainty and high rainfall uncertainty.

    I did think of you while we were driving past the cotton crops. Harvest time. Some paddocks literally ran from the road side to the horizon. More ‘snow’ on the flats than up Kozzie way.

  23. Big spending is good.
    Debt is good.
    Deficits are goodTax cuts are good.
    The LNP is in government go about your business.
    The MSM/ABC will take things from here.
    50/50 Newspoll on the way.

  24. KayJay @ #942 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 7:39 pm

    To Whom It May Concern.
    The Dashboard – Profile refers to

    Profile Picture

    You can change your profile picture on Gravatar.

    Apologies for earlier post concerning Jupiter.

    Although I realize that most posters are scholars of Ancient Greece, my reference was to Ancient Roman Gods.

    I am currently brushing up on my

    •Zeus. God of the Sky (Zoos) …
    •Hera. Goddess of Marriage, Mothers and Families (Hair’-ah) …
    •Poseidon. God of the Sea (Po-sigh’-dun) …
    •Demeter. Goddess of Agriculture (Duh-mee’-ter) …
    •Ares. God of War (Air’-eez) …
    •Athena. Goddess of Wisdom, War, and Useful Arts (Ah-thee’-nah) …
    •Apollo. …
    •Artemis.

    And so to sleep, perchance to …………….(Shakespeare again, dammit).

    Goodnight all. 💤💤💤

    Goodnight sweet Prince and may flights of angels take thee to thy rest!

  25. GG
    I was ruminating, in a non-ruminant sort of way, about exactly that point. In the gym this morning most of the six screens featured lengthy periods of gubbies in high viz talking Santa.
    I keep going back to my basic formulation: while wages are stagnant or falling, this Government is gone. A bit of tax lolly ($4 a week) will not save them from this.
    If you add falling house prices, more so.
    ATM the share market is providing them with their only real world comfort. And I am not sure about how many Australians would change their votes because they are making a quid on the ASX.

  26. If the bloody irrigators upstream would put into place the low water irrigation techniques used by SA farmers/growers there would be much more water available in the MD system. Same for the towns along the river; the water waste is reprehensible.

    Lazy, ignorant bastards.

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