A ReachTEL poll for Sky News finds Labor maintaining its 54-46 lead from the last such poll a month ago. However, the primary votes are not quite as strong for Labor as last time, when Labor’s two-party lead was subdued by a strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. This time the Coalition is up one on the primary vote to 34%, while both Labor and the Greens are down a point, to 36% and 10% respectively, and One Nation are steady on 7%.
The poll also finds 56% of respondents opposed to company tax cuts, with only 29% supportive, and only 26% thinking it likely the cuts will be passed on to workers, compared with 68% for unlikely. Not surprisingly, a question on whether Tony Abbott should return as Liberal leader after the next election finds little support, with 25% for yea and 64% for nay.
Together with the Newspoll and Essential Research, the ReachTEL results have been included in the lastest BludgerTrack update, which once again records essentially no change on voting intention, with ReachTEL’s strong result for Labor cancelling out a weak one from Essential Research. However, Labor is up two on the seat projection for Queensland, mostly because Galaxy’s 52-48 lead for the Coalition in that state in a Courier-Mail poll a month ago is no longer exerting its pull. Also included are the latest leadership ratings from Newspoll, which take a small bite out of Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval and preferred prime minister lead. We should have Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns next week, which will make the BludgerTrack state breakdowns a little more robust.
If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can enjoy my piece today on how the recent halt to the rise of minor parties might play out in the Senate over the coming years. Below is a chart I knocked up to illustrate it, which I decided not to use. It combines federal and state election results, so that the reading at any point in time uses results from the most recent elections federally in each state, with each election weighted by its voting population.
Alan Jones for coach – you know it’s right
Look what he did for the Wallabies and Balmain when he knew nothing about Rugby
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/cricket/the-email-that-shows-umpires-had-raised-concerns-about-smith-and-warner-before-20180329-p4z6xh.html
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/liberal-party-readying-to-sell-exhibition-street-hq-sources-20180329-p4z6v2.html
Morning all. Sandpapergate is probably over for Bancroft. But as others have no doubt spotted, Bancroft made clear he had never done this before, whereas Warner simply said “mistakes were made”. Speculation about past incidents for Warner is sure to continue.
With the current cricket situation and desire for change for the better, is it too much to hope for a total ban on sledging?
With any cricketer on the field breaking this ban being sent off immediately?
And a question for the physicists:
If you can get the ball to break to the left with the seam vertical, the left side polished on your trousers, and that is seen as fine and dandy, why can’t you rotate the ball through 180 degrees and have it break to the right unexpectedly without going to the trouble of sandpapering to make the (former) right side much more rough?
Or can bowlers see which side is left and right, and prepare accordingly?
Thanks once again BK . Do you never sleep ❓
And yet, and yet, somehow some of our sporting “heroes” must be crucified on this Easter weekend so that our collective outrage can be mollified.
Perhaps the risen and restored young men will appear on Easter Day clothed once again in glory to delight and amaze the Channel Nine cricket commenters (commentators :?:).
But, but, thrice but, what do I know ❓
Answer – Not much. 🕊🕊
Re my previous post – bowlers = batsmen.
Mrodowicz
‘On the basis of current polling (and remember that the majors should each poll around 5% less in the Senate than the HR) …’
Well, for starters, this assumption appears to be completely wrong.
At the last election, looking at the AEC results, Liberals/Nats got around 40% in the HoR, and around 35% in the Senate, Labor got around 30% in the HoR and 30% in the Senate, and the Greens got 10% in the HoR and 9% in the Senate.
So only the Coalition fell by 5%; the Greens fell by 1% and Labor held steady.
‘… both ALP and Coalition will struggle to win 3 Senate seats anywhere. They probably need above 33% to win a third seat. ‘
So, on Bludgertrack (which we know is a ‘best prediction’ but it’s all we have), and assuming this pattern holds true, if an election were held today, the Coalition would poll around 30% in the Senate, Labor around 37 and the Greens 9.
Given that Senate votes (crucially) vary from State to State, and we don’t have breakdowns on Bludgertrack for primaries, I’m not going to attempt predictions.
C#t, you assume my OH is well off, she is not, she has had a checkered employment history with little super (and when she had work she never earned anything like $2,000 a week). She has never been on welfare as she has managed to get by and is too young for the aged pension. Her parents passed away over a year ago and she inherited a small parcel of shares. She is very independent and proud of how she has managed her life without welfare or help. Knocking off the credits will hurt her badly. She will not be voting for the privileged in society, she will be voting for her own interests.
I respect your principled reason for voting the way you do. I suspect that you will benefit directly from doing so, and this can be considered a bonus.
PeeBee
‘ She is very independent and proud of how she has managed her life without welfare or help.’
So she should be really pleased to be giving up the imputation credits….
(…but if she isn’t well off, she probably hasn’t lost them…)
briefly
The graph above is interesting; the non major voting has stayed pretty constant since 1998. I would be surprised if that will change.
I think there is a large block of votes that believes the senate should not be in the hands of either major party; it’s a little more workable than giving the senate to one party and the house to another and definitely a lot better than giving the house of review to the same party as the house of government.
The problem for the Greens, in trying to replace Labor they have reneged on being a party looking after the balance of power; they just keeping making fools of themselves.
I think Australian Voters have a real problem on their hand. What to do? Personality parties (Nick Pauline, Clive, Katter, they come and go) and Independents seem to be the current solution.
don @ #157 Friday, March 30th, 2018 – 8:12 am
Excellent Youtube explanation of swing and reverse swing bowling by Craig Mcdermott. What he says about scuffing is illuminating.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_iwEuFknHg
I am beginning to have a great admiration for the skills of both batsmen and bowlers.
The batsmen must have eagle eyes and wonderful hand eye coordination to see and play the various deliveries.
More explanation from players please.
☕
Spare a thought this Easter for those of us who don’t like cricket (I lost interest long ago) and find all this hysteria over some sandpapering somewhere between bizarre and ridiculous. That said, if CA thinks that making the brown-nosed gnome coach of the Australian team is the solution to their problems they really are in a bad way.
…of course, last Senate’s state by state results have to be treated with caution, but looking at them, only Victoria, WA and Tasmania had a Green Senator returned as one of the ‘top six”, suggesting that, if it hadn’t been a DD, only two Green Senators would have been elected nationwide.
PeeBee (Block)
As she will be voting for the handing back, in cash, of tax the company paid, she will be voting for welfare. Good on her; but don’t pretend she is better than someone voting for an increase in the pension.
The difference between the two forms of income support; the pension is means tested; the little income support she gets is being used by people who do not need it and it is taking from the government billions that should be used for health, roads and schools.
KayJay (Block)
…
Excellent Youtube explanation of swing and reverse swing bowling by Craig Mcdermott. What he says about scuffing is illuminating.
I think the presenters Tshirt pretty much sums up the state of Australian cricket and why this will be a pivotal moment.
Time to seriously consider a solar array on the roof – say 6/12 months from now:
https://thinkprogress.org/solar-wind-power-prices-are-beating-natural-gas-c9912054400c/
Might have escaped you this week but the coalition have announced an inquiry into the ‘competitive neutrality’ of ABC and SBS.
I’ve never witnessed proper perspective on an issue go so ridiculously pear shaped .
Anyone would think three men had been caught in the change rooms offering lollies to little boys.
Its a stick and ball game folks.
The media feeding frenzy has been truly pathetic.
booleanbach says:
Friday, March 30, 2018 at 8:49 am
Time to seriously consider a solar array on the roof – say 6/12 months from now:
https://thinkprogress.org/solar-wind-power-prices-are-beating-natural-gas-c9912054400c/
That graph of battery prices is not what the homeowner pays for battery backup.
According to the graph, the cost is about $80 per kWh.
Making a 12 kWh battery such as the tesla power wall around $1000.
My understanding is that it is more like $10 000 at the moment.
Fun quiz (no googling)
Q: Who are these people?
David Peever
Earl Eddings
Dr Bob Every
John Harnden
Tony Harrison
Jacquie Hey
Michelle Tredenick
Zoomster, ‘So she should be really pleased to be giving up the imputation credits…’
Unfortunately, she feels they are hers. You may as well ask her to give up her dividends too, you would get the same reaction.
From her point of view, she will be taxed at 30% of her income. If she earned the same amount from her labours she would be paying zero tax. No argument about greater good, she didn’t earn it, it’s really company tax, it’s not effective until 2019 etc has any traction. From her point of view, she feels she will be robbed of 30% of her income by the Labor government.
sprocket_
Correct answer: People I’ve never heard of in my life.
There was a very enlightening story on the ABC yesterday. It was about a woman near my age who was Caring for her father with Dementia. She had also had 2 children that had had cancer and cared for them. Plus 2 others that hadn’t that she raised. She was also a Widow! She had only $3400 in accumulated Super that she was going to withdraw to bu a second hand car. She just didn’t know what would happen to her financial situation after her father passed away and she lost the Carers Pension.
Yes, a situation similar to mine and I empathise with her and many other middle aged women in similar situations. We are are a demographic time bomb due to our life timeline. So, of course, I will continue to support the political party that will do something for us! But I always did, even when I wasn’t in that situation. I would hope that others would as well. Be selfless.
However, that is not to say that I have no sympathy for those who are proudly independent. Good on them for surviving life in one financially independent piece. I just wish that they could see the other side of the coin and beyond their own personal circumstances when they vote.
zoomster says:
Friday, March 30, 2018 at 8:59 am
sprocket_
Correct answer: People I’ve never heard of in my life.
__________________
another correct answer: Who cares?
sprocket_
Sandpaper salesmen ?
I was wondering what nasties the government has “thrown out with the trash” while we were all absorbed in Easter preparations and the cricketing scandal
Thanks ides of March for spotting the investigation of ABC and SBS for “competitive neutrality”
What does that mean?
frednk (AnonBlock)
Friday, March 30th, 2018 – 8:46 am
Comment #169
My wife moved from a bad situation in a nursing home to a “Bupa” nursing home.
Frying pan – fire.
Ides of March not.logged in @ #171 Friday, March 30th, 2018 – 7:51 am
“Competitive neutrality”!! Has that just been spat out by a random word generator? Yes I missed the announcement. Just the COALition putting more pressure on a cowered ABC in the ongoing culture wars.
Indeed Mundo – I’ve been thinking this from the get go.
It is a glaring demonstration of the crowd mentality.
Before the end of the playing session in question 1000s of armchair critics were providing their ‘narrative’ on what happened and who was at fault. The online crowd whipped up a frenzy of finger pointing, assumptions and suppositions.
People who have no interest in cricket, “never liked cricket myself” and so on were making judgments.
The PM decided it was a good time to express his displeasure by “demanding answers” (shame he can’t do that when there’s an issue with one of his ministers).
Then after yesterday’s press conferences we’ve had people variously feeling sorry for them (suddenly? realising that Smith and co had not, in fact, murdered anyone) to others condemning these men for showing emotion at the realisation that they have trashed the very thing they love.
I do admire Shorten’s measured response … his comments didn’t get much publicity because they weren’t outraged in nature, I suspect.
PeeBee
‘Unfortunately, she feels they are hers. ‘
Really not having a go at your wife here, but that’s the major problem.
Everyone feels that their entitlements are ‘theirs’ – that they have a right to them.
On the other hand, everyone feels that everyone else’s entitlements aren’t deserved, and (often) that they would get more entitlements if everyone else got less.
Government is about balancing the two.
As always, it’s swings and roundabouts. Labor will lose voters over this, no question. But it has gambled on the premise that the money saved will enable them to gain voters elsewhere – and so far, this seems to be holding true.
And that’s without any major announcements about where the redirected funds will go. Once the saved billions start being divvied out to support programs as yet unspecified, not only will some of those lost votes come back to Labor, but others presently not voting Labor will jump on board.
Your premise is voters vote selfishly. Fair enough. 5 billion a year buys a lot of selfish voters.
Does the average voter worry about balancing the budget and keeping election promises after Abbott trashed his promises in his first budget
Actually I think I can answer my own question. Coalition voters worry about broken election promises and “balanced budgets”.
So long as they have FTTP bugger those saps stuck paying more for inferior speed and reliability than existing internet on FTTN or HFC.
Frednk:’but don’t pretend she is better than someone voting for an increase in the pension’
I never make assumption about anyone being ‘better than someone’ else.
Voting for an increase in the pension is sensible behaviour for a pensioner, as is voting to retain your franking credits for a investor with no tax liabilities.
Billie
With this government it will mean competitive with the ‘neutrality’ of Sky New or The Telegraph.
Not sure why you’re getting so hysterical about it Jen. They were caught cheating and were penalised. Remember it’s only a silly game and there are much more important things going on it the world to worry about.
And that brings us to what lies at the heart of non-stop BRI dismissal/demonization.
It’s all about preventing the emergence not only of a “peer competitor,” but worse: a New Silk Road-enabled trade/connectivity condominium — featuring China, Russia, Iran and Turkey — as powerful across the East as the US still remains across the much-troubled “Western Hemisphere.”
This is why Bolton is such a worry – he would love to go to war with Iran
https://www.opednews.com/articles/The-myth-of-a-neo-imperial-by-Pepe-Escobar-China-Iran-Russia-Alliance_China-New-Silk-Roads_Iran_New-Silk-Road-180315-756.html
don,
That’s why i feel another 6/12 months is worth waiting before going ahead.
Tesla power walls will be cheaper by then, but i accept the $10,000 (currently). Once they get to ~$5000 – $7000 i would be good to go.
Ides
The audience figures we saw (yesterday?) proved that many serious ABC programs can certainly hold their own with the commercials, but don’t necessarily beat them. I thought that was pretty reasonable.
What is the govt looking for through Guthrie? For the ABC to shut up and go away (and cost nothing), or become competitive (and return a ‘profit’)?
This is ridiculous.
Zoomster, no problem about OH. No doubt she feels entitled to them. She is one of a minority that the ALP has decided to alienate. The polls indicate they are safe to do this, and with the upside of picking up other (and probably more) voters because of the policy.
Jeff Sessions declines to appoint a second special counsel to investigate alleged FBI surveillance abuses
Attorney General Jeff Sessions on Thursday responded to a letter from top Congressional Republicans officially requesting a second special counsel to investigate the FBI and potential FISA abuses during the 2016 presidential election, effectively declining to open a separate probe per the leaders’ request.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/read-jeff-sessions-declines-appoint-second-special-counsel-investigate-alleged-fbi-surveillance-abuses/
PeeBee
Sorry if I offended. It was the “never been on welfare” that set me off. She is on welfare, because she is getting company tax paid as cash into her account; the problem is, it is very poorly targeted welfare only available to those with access to capital; welfare is and was never intended to be like that.
As someone wrote; people who are in such a situation should not be complaining but celebrating they got away with it for so long.
‘Very, very unhappy with her life’: Insider claims Melania wants to take son Barron and flee Trump
According to US Magazine, Melania Trump has grown increasingly despondent over life in the spotlight with scandal-plagued husband Donald Trump and wants to flee with her son, Barron.
The article claims that the first lady is disconsolate following reports that Trump had affairs with porn star Stormy Daniels and Playboy playmate Karen McDougal. The torrent of news has taken its toll on Trump’s third wife.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/unhappy-life-insider-claims-melania-wants-take-son-barron-flee-trump/
I have just dozed through an hour of breast beating by the ABC on the tragedy of the cricketers (I had a sleepless night). The cynic in me couldn’t help but think that they were in tears a) because they’d been proven not heroes, but common cheats; b) they’d ruined lucrative careers.
I gave up watching cricket when commercial interests began to rule.
For late risers, a repeat:
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/cricket/the-email-that-shows-umpires-had-raised-concerns-about-smith-and-warner-before-20180329-p4z6xh.html
lizzie
Easy, what Effin’ Murdoch wants . Here as in the UK. She had 14 years of training at the Rupertarium .
http://theconversation.com/how-the-murdoch-press-has-waged-a-relentless-campaign-against-the-bbc-and-why-its-worked-45523
The libertarian capitalists really are the bane of society.
Pee Bee
I am a little bemused here. For the first week or so after the policy was announced there was little mention of your partner. But in the last 48 hours it is all about her. And you write about her feelings about the matter as if they are uninfluenced by your’s, which you have recorded here so many times.
All decisions about tax and tax changes impact on some demography, and all impacts are harder or easier on some parts of that demography.
For example the change to the tax free threshold which brought it from about $6K to $18K had little impact on someone earning $500K but significant impact on someone earning $18K. It’s all about swings and roundabouts.
Of corse we wouldn’t be having this debate if Howard and Costello had not implemented their various structural giveaways earlier this century, being awash with mining boom dollars and fearful of losing the next election.