BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Very slight movement back to the Coalition on the latest poll aggregate this week, with a not-quite-so-bad Newspoll providing the only new numbers.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is drifting back towards the Coalition as other pollsters fail to replicate their particularly bad result from ReachTEL a fortnight ago. There is no change on the seat projection, though this is due to the correction of an error that short-changed Labor two seats in Queensland last week. The is balanced by Coalition gains of one seat apiece in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll’s latest numbers have taken a big chunk out of Malcolm Turnbull’s readings on the leadership trends, while Bill Shorten holds even on net approval. Enjoy all the results in detail by clicking on the image below.

Note that there’s a post below this one on Newspoll’s latest state voting intention result from Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,643 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. CFMEUJohnSetka: Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum spend much needed taxpayer money to fly to Wollongong to tell a camera what we knew last week.
    Tweedle Dee claims ‘we’ve beefed up anti-dumping regime’ while asbestos makes a comeback!
    #auspol pic.twitter.com/L9Uiii8ETF

  2. The Greens escalated their attack on Labor’s recent record on refugee policy this weekend, launching an online advertisement in which several Batman voters speak of their disenchantment with Labor.
    The party’s candidate, Alex Bhathal, also spoke at an organised rally for refugees at the Northcote Town Hall on Saturday.
    “For the last quarter of a century, successive Labor and Liberal governments have overseen a regime that has locked up children and cost the lives of hundreds of asylum seekers,” Ms Bhathal said.

    What about the lives of thousands of asylum seekers who have drowned at sea on their way to Australia on the boats organised for them by People Smugglers? The Greens don’t seem to have a problem with that.

    “A few weeks ago, the Labor candidate for this by-election described this situation as a reality we have to accept.
    “It is a reality based on the premise that you can use innocent people as collateral damage for your political ends.”

    And asylum seekers’ deaths at sea are a reality that The Greens are prepared to accept. They also use these those people as collateral damage to advance The Greens’ political ends.

    So hypocritical it is breathtaking, and they don’t appear to be able to see the mote in their own eye as they happily parade in support of, alive, asylum seekers.

  3. C@tmomma @ #2203 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 6:13 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #2203 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 10:12 am

    The LNP choose their replacement for Brandis.

    Another lawyer, but she appears to have been a real lawyer and she is a she.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/11/lawyer-amanda-stoker-chosen-to-replace-george-brandis-in-senate

    She is also from the Conservative Christian Right.

    So another RWFW from Queensland just surprisingly one without balls.

    Yawn!!! 🙁

  4. Cat
    “Malcolm Turnbull has that false, ‘genuinely interested’ look down pat.”

    He has no doubt been keeping informed of the cricket score. I am sure he was genuinely concerned about Australia’s second innings when he looked like that. He may also have been thinking about the approaching 30th Newspoll. Again, the concern would be genuine.

  5. Booleanbach
    “This is one thing a Shorten Government could pursue vigorously – much tougher rules and regulations … with funds and staff to strongly pursue corporations who breach them.”

    There is a clear lack of will and resources to enforce current law on corporations. Better a $100k donation to the Liberal party than a $100m fine. No new regs are needed.

  6. BK @ #2209 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 9:27 am

    She is also from the Conservative Christian Right.
    _______
    Not ANOTHER one!

    She must however be very bright with that CV. She must have done well at Uni to get a spot with Minter Ellison and then as a High Court associate (unless she knows someone). Her profile as a barrister is OK but not stunning for 7 years, although I guess if she has had three kiddies she ain’t doing too bad.

  7. Another nail-biter Presidential election coming up on Sunday – in Russia this time.
    Can hardly wait for the results.

  8. Conservatives consistently demonstrate a dedicated commitment to stupidity, ignorance, pixie dust, magic puddings and unicorns when it comes to global warming.

    As to why.

    Let THEM explain why.

  9. Cat

    The “Deaths at Sea” was used to dehumanise refugees by the LNP.

    Use crocodile tears of a tragedy to exude a regime of torture and demonisation.

    We must stop the boats oh the inhumanity. Well we have seen as reported today the same tactics the nazis used to seperate families and send them into danger.

    If British backpackers overstayed their visa no way we would accept such behaviour.
    Labor has been complicit in its silence.

    I have no illusions. I know Labor has been forced into this by the political wedge. However “Deaths at Sea” is the excuse to appear human while putting the dehumanising policy in place.
    That has been the result.

    That is taking into account Labor never wanted indefinite detention. Labor has not dehumanised or demonised refugees. Labor wants a regional solution.

    Labor has got to the support of turn backs only because it has been forced to by the LNP.
    Outplayed for fear of losing votes and appearing inhumane. Instead of just saying the reality is the LNP exploited a tragedy for political purposes.

    The rot set in with Kevin Rudd backing down. Labor has been fighting with its own conscience ever since. Mr Shorten has put in a way out. I see Labor doing that.

    However whining when the Greens point out their consistent humane policy position by saying “Deaths at Sea” is to not see the forest for the trees. Labor has to stop using deaths at sea as an excuse about policy. Tragedies happen even to the richest most well prepared aircraft.
    Even to Qantas.

    Turn backs is just as likely to see deaths at sea. We know the boats are still coming despite the secrecy of the LNP government. Its all out of sight out of mind by the LNP.

    Labor would do well to stop falling for the LNP propaganda and not use the exploitation of the LNP of a tragedy to further exploit that tragedy.

    We know from the EU experience block the borders as they have done the boats still come. There are still drownings at sea. Thats the evidence when there is no secrecy.

    Thats with the arrangements with Turkey Libya etc to return refugees. They still choose to do this even though there are land options for those refugees. Thats what desperation does.

    Labor is stuck until it gets back into power and can actually do something. Blaming the Greens using “Deaths at Sea” only gives more ammunition to the likes of Dutton to continue his policies of dehumanisation so families that over stay their visas can be ripped apart solely because they are “illegals” even though that is not a standard we would accept with British Backpackers. Thats how far the dehumanisation process has gone.

    Labor should stop whining about the Greens pointing this out and just grit their teeth and go onto another subject. Talk refugees and boats and Labor loses. Get the topic onto another subject like penalty rates instead.

  10. ‘The “Deaths at Sea” was used to dehumanise refugees by the LNP.

    Use crocodile tears of a tragedy to exude a regime of torture and demonisation.’

    All very well, but the UNHCR is also concerned about deaths at sea – they’ve said so frequently, and are particularly concerned about the situation with the Mediterranean.

    Are the UNHCR dehumanising refugees by denying them the right to drown?

  11. ‘We know from the EU experience block the borders as they have done the boats still come. There are still drownings at sea. Thats the evidence when there is no secrecy.’

    Yes, there are still deaths at sea. However, as the graph in this link shows, the number of sea arrivals in the Med have decreased dramatically, which would (one assume) mean a decrease in fatalities —

    http://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/mediterranean

    Of course, I realise that this is a Bad Thing.

  12. guytaur

    The Greens are now trying to tell us that thousands of men, women and children drowning was fake news.
    Just so the Greens do not have to wear the twin approbria of destroying the Malaysian Solution AND supporting the Coalition.

    FMD.

  13. Zoomster

    The UNHCR is not saying turn the boats back.

    The UNHCR says first thing to do is stop having wars.

    Just look at Syria. A quagmire of a war that is exponentially increasing the refugee problem of the world.

    First way to stop refugees is have anti war policy. Second way is to accept desperate people do desperate things and not politically exploit the tragedy for political purposes. Of course you want the tragedies to stop.

    So therefore be anti war. The refugee problem is precisely because the West went to war.
    The collapse of order increasing the death rape and torture of people is what leads to refugees.
    Until that is fixed it will continue.

    Thats the simple reality. I hate that reality but as much as I hate that it is still reality.
    Using a tragedy off our shore by the LNP to bring in the concentration camps makes us complicit in the abuse of the human rights of people.

    People who are fleeing persecution in danger of their lives.
    Thats what crying “Deaths at Sea” has got Australia to.
    As I said Labor is stuck until it is back in power and can use Mr Shorten’s solution.

    Until then Labor can help itself by not using the “Deaths at Sea” against the Greens because that continues to exploit a tragedy and really is only helping the LNP have an excuse to continue their dehumanise the refugees.

    Just change the subject to penalty rates and get into power so that Labor can do something to stop the policy. Then “Deaths at Sea” won’t be a tragedy the LNP can continue to exploit to keep its inhumane indefinite detention policies. One I recognise Labor is against.

  14. This could be a sleeper issue.

    As Alabama’s junior senator, Jeff Sessions was far more involved than previously known in helping two of his top contributors derail a federal environmental cleanup effort, according to records obtained under the Freedom of Information Act by Mother Jones and the Project on Government Oversight. The stalled cleanup is now at the center of a federal bribery case spearheaded by the Justice Department, posing a serious conflict of interest for Sessions, who is now attorney general. Yet there is no indication that Sessions has taken any steps to recuse himself from this matter.

    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/03/jeff-sessions-has-a-huge-conflict-of-interest-in-a-federal-bribery-case-and-it-keeps-getting-worse/

  15. guytaur

    You can’t simultaneously say that the solution is to stop all wars and then that you’re dealing with reality.

    The UNHCR is big on Stopping The Boats, which means detaining refugees on the African side of the Med. In detention camps.

  16. Zoomster

    Look at the refugee camps record. Murder. Child rape. Medical care denied. The list goes on under the LNP government.

    So yes rather than our taxpayer dollars paying for those inhumane policies death at sea means my taxpayer dollars are not involved except to try and prevent those drownings where we can.

    I prefer our taxpayer dollars to be spent to prevent harm not to be used to cause harm.

  17. Good

    Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP · 14m14 minutes ago

     More

    Big weekend coming up in state & federal politics: SA election and Batman by-election. I’m looking forward to discussing the issues on the #ABCInsiders couch with @barriecassidy this Sunday. #auspol @australian

  18. zoomster @ #2221 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 10:55 am

    ‘The “Deaths at Sea” was used to dehumanise refugees by the LNP.

    Use crocodile tears of a tragedy to exude a regime of torture and demonisation.’

    All very well, but the UNHCR is also concerned about deaths at sea – they’ve said so frequently, and are particularly concerned about the situation with the Mediterranean.

    Are the UNHCR dehumanising refugees by denying them the right to drown?

    I wish the ALP would drop the sham concern about ‘deaths at sea’ which only lends weight to the faux concern justification of the LNP.

    OTOH, I have no problems with returning people to their point of embarkation in a similar manner to what happens if anyone arrives undocumented on an aircraft.

    I don’t like the idea of any people drowning. But the boats are crewed by Indonesian fishermen who lead a hazardous life and drowning is an occupational hazard. I have never heard any great concern expressed for the many Indonesian and other fishermen who drown in seas to our north.

    With the flow stemmed, the camps can be emptied without delay.

    Of course it will only happen if the present Government is defeated. The Greentards, for their own reasons, do not want this to happen and wage a ceaseless emotional campaign against Labor.

  19. guytaur

    Certainly the camps could be run more humanely. However, the kind of complaints you’re listing have also been listed for camps run by the UNHCR. Indeed, one of the justifications put forward for getting on a boat was that conditions in UNHCR camps were so dire.

    Basically, put lots of human beings in the one place, in crowded conditions, and bad things happen – it’s one of the arguments against living in cities!

    A regional solution – which you’ve advocated for in the past – will involve camps. There will be murders and rapes in those camps. That’s inevitable, although regrettable.

    There is no such thing as a place of total safety. (Indeed, most murders and rapes occur in family homes…)

  20. Zoomster

    Now you are really going to extremes.

    I have not said no camps. I have said lets not help the LNP do their policies.

    In my posts I have said several times Mr Shorten has a solution I think will work.

    I have just said that Labor has to put up with the Greens rhetoric because until Labor is back in power their is nothing Labor can do. Using the “Deaths at Sea” argument only helps the LNP.

    Just change the topic onto penalty rates and inequality of income. Labor is strong in this space.
    Don’t be led down a path that will lose votes in a national election the Batman result is not going to change the government and the election that will change that government is not far off.

  21. bemused

    My view on the “concern” for drowning at sea is forever colored by the people who were among the earliest adopters being the likes of 2GB and assorted shout back stations. It is a marvelous wheeze, they could wrap their previous bigotry and stirring up racial tension with pure “humanitarian concern”.

  22. poroti @ #2240 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 11:26 am

    bemused

    My view on the “concern” for drowning at sea is forever colored by the people who were among the earliest adopters being the likes of 2GB and assorted shout back stations. It is a marvelous wheeze, they could wrap their previous bigotry and stirring up racial tension with pure “humanitarian concern”.

    Yeah, the same scum that did a huge beat up over people from Christmas being brought to Sydney for the funerals of those who had drowned. They are just filth.

  23. The treatment of refugees by Australia amounts to their political exploitation by the Blue Tories on one side – the side of conspicuous, exemplary punishment of the outcasts – and by the Crypto-Tories on the other side – the side of a sentimental and cynical unreality.

    The respective stands of these political outfits is intended to prevent any change to the dynamics on this issue.

    The Blues feed the Greens. The Greens feed the Blues. Depravity and Indignation dance together in the Cruel Waltz.

  24. “”That is taking into account Labor never wanted indefinite detention. Labor has not dehumanised or demonised refugees. Labor wants a regional solution.””
    There would be none of this shit, if the Greens had supported the “”Malaysian Solution””.
    End of Story!.

  25. Fess

    Another interesting dynamic is what has occurred in the UK with the former Russian and daughter being poisoned. The UK govt are pissed. UK citizens were also injured in this brazen attack. Now as far as I can tell, it is a non too subtle message from the Kremlin.
    Now it has been reported that the UK Tories should consider giving back 1.8 million dollars Or thereabouts donated to the party from Oligarchs.
    Over many years the UK has ignored the rivers of oligarchy money that has flowed in the UK. How can anyone resist money no matter it’s source.
    Now they have to decide whether they will start to punish them or not.
    It is a delicate dance, cos I reckon it would affect the money markets quite considerably.
    Lots of balls in the air.

  26. I object to the idea that people drowning to get to Australia is in anyway acceptable. Being complacent about deaths at sea is not a virtuous position.

    So concerns about ‘deaths at sea’ are exploited politically. That does not mean that such concerns are not genuine; it means that those exploiting them aren’t.

    The refugee problem isn’t one with easy solutions, and almost any solution proferred is imperfect. If it were easy to solve, after all, it would be done by now.

  27. 1934pc

    You can’t blame the Greens for holding fast to their on shore policies.

    The only reason camps in Australia became a problem is the security delaying the process so that camps filled up with people.

    Thats it. Cut down the security assessment time and it will go back to the Hawke Keating period of processing.

    No problem there.

    Thats your what if.

    Reality is we have to go with Mr Shorten’s solution.
    We are where we are.
    I don’t see any other choice and I oppose offshore detention but I see that the LNP politics has brought us to this and we need to do this to stop it.

    I just think Labor needs to change the subject because it will not win on the boats issue until it is in power and can change things.

  28. …I’m interested in the idea that the whole issue gets turned over to the UNHCR. ALL refugees, no matter where they arrive or how, automatically are sent to the nearest UNHCR camp for processing.

    The UNHCR then decides who goes where.

  29. guytaur

    Yes, because there were so many refugees arriving by boat the camps could no longer accommodate them. Which meant increased deaths at sea.

  30. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Monday, March 12, 2018 at 10:12 am
    The LNP choose their replacement for Brandis.

    Another lawyer, but she appears to have been a real lawyer and she is a she.

    Barney

    As I’ve argued before, don’t make the mistake of thinking a female tory is any better than a male one. When it comes to their ideology they are all the bloody same.

  31. zoomster

    To claim the Greens are in favour of people drowning at sea and not in favour of using taxpayers dollars to prevent them is the exploitation of deaths at sea as much as that of the LNP.

    Labor needs to stop that narrative. It only helps the LNP.

    All Labor has to say is our policy is to use taxpayer dollars to prevent deaths at sea. After all its only repeating what Labor has already said.

    Ignore the Green rhetoric and change the subject. Politically Labor will not win on boats its that simple tactically. Thats political reality. Whine about it and you just help the LNP.

    Its all I am saying.

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