Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal rating takes a tumble, but otherwise little change in the latest Newspoll.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on last fortnight at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 38% (up one), Greens 9% (down one) and One Nation 7% (down one). Despite the stability on voting intention, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister has been slashed from 40-33 to 37-35. The Australian’s report relates that Turnbull is down two points on approval to 32%, and Shorten is down one to 33%, but the only hint we get about disapproval is that Turnbull’s result is worse than Shorten’s. More on that shortly. (UPDATE: Turnbull’s disapproval is up three to 57%, Shorten’s is up two to 56%). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1657.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,078 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Did someone say yesterday this month would be Mueller’s Ides of March?

    Nunberg episode marks the dawn of Mueller’s March madness

    The grinding pressure of special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation is starting to do strange things to people’s heads.

    How else to explain a staggering, reality TV-style meltdown of short-lived Trump campaign adviser Sam Nunberg on Monday, played out in a batch of cable news interviews, marking the oddest twist of the Russia saga yet?

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/06/politics/sam-nunberg-robert-mueller-investigation/index.html

  3. Fess

    Meanwhile the Russia probe continues to reveal.
    I caught up with some of the interviews with the Sam Nunberg yesterday.
    I felt it was all a kabuki act.

  5. David Marler‏ @Qldaah

    Andrew Hastie hands back $10,000 in cash from a Chinese donor. Review of donations rules governing the WA Liberal Party triggered. WA arm of the party has grown to become one of the biggest receivers of donations from Chinese interests #wapol #auspol

  6. Vic:

    I saw a couple of his interviews last night, and can only think that the Mueller probe is messing with their heads.

  7. ‘Bushfire Bill says:
    Wednesday, March 7, 2018 at 9:01 am

    Turnbull cares so much for women in the workplace.

    One of his staffers blew the whistle on love rat and “rising Liberal star” Matt Kean (Gladys’ Minister for Innovation) … and got the boot. Kean was too valuable to get rid of, so he stayed.’

    This has got ‘Lucy’ written all over it.

  8. Fess

    Yep. But Nunberg going and doing these interviews and volunteering statements, indicated to me it was all part of an act.

  9. Democrats are eyeing off a Senate win in…..Texas!!

    Voters in Texas on Tuesday are setting up a showdown that Democrats hope will lead to their first victory in a statewide election there since 1994, with Rep. Beto O’Rourke vying to compete for the Senate seat of Republican Ted Cruz.

    It’s a daunting task for O’Rourke, 45, a three-term congressman. But there are signs he could at least keep November’s election close, including an impressive early-vote turnout among Democrats for Tuesday’s primaries, robust fundraising reports and polls showing declines in popularity for Cruz and President Trump. Neither O’Rourke nor Cruz is facing serious competition in Tuesday’s primaries.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-beto-orourkes-challenge-to-ted-cruz-democrats-see-a-chance-at-a-statewide-win-in-texas/2018/03/06/3bad4088-20a3-11e8-86f6-54bfff693d2b_story.html?utm_term=.f9e14c19f9cb

  12. It’s noticeable to me at least that this is very much a christian catholic thing, in the great judeo christian tradition, this silencing of women, whose purpose is to serve and service, better or worse, in the kitchen but better be ready when I want it, unclean one away from the altar, and away from the msm and your texting service, should you want to keep your job.

    Kean is another clothed in the devout catholic cloth.

    Nice that Gladys is *personally* disappointed. Oh, the disappointment.

  14. Well this would indicate why Mueller is focusing back to 2015.

    As one of Trump’s closest advisers, Cohen played a role in at least two episodes involving Russian interests that have drawn Mueller’s attention, according to several people familiar with document subpoenas and witness interviews.

    One area of focus has been negotiations Cohen undertook during the campaign to help the Trump Organization build a tower in Moscow. Cohen brought Trump a letter of intent in October 2015 from a Russian developer to build a Moscow project. Later, he sent an email to Russian President Vladi­mir Putin’s chief spokesman seeking help to advance the stalled project. He said he did not recall receiving a response.

    Another area that Mueller’s team has explored is a Russia-friendly peace proposal for Ukraine that was delivered to Cohen by a Ukrainian lawmaker one week after Trump took office, the people said.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/special-counsel-has-examined-episodes-involving-michael-cohen-trumps-longtime-lawyer/2018/03/06/4a2bd064-1b37-11e8-b2d9-08e748f892c0_story.html?utm_term=.cc95d815a707

  15. Laura Tingle has signed a $15,000 contract for two days’ work with the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet and says she sees no conflict in the job.

    No Laura, no conflict of interest at all…
    However, I’m sure that your new employer won’t mind in the slightest. All part of the job description, in fact.

  16. New figures reveal approximately 15,000 participants were slapped with so-called serious failures in just two years to June 30, 2017.

    More than 90 per cent were applied to Indigenous people.

    “This is about people going without an income and having to basically forage for existence,” federal Labor spokesman Pat Dodson said.

    “No-one in the mainstream survives without some form of income.

    “The cost of living in a lot of these places is so high that if you don’t have money, you can’t survive, and you’re going to depend or bludge off someone else.”

    …Mr Scullion has indicated a new remote work for the dole scheme will be introduced by July 2019.

    Senator Dodson urged the Government to urgently release details of the changes.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-07/indigenous-work-for-the-dole-threatens-participants-with-pay-cut/9521340

  19. adrian @ #1565 Wednesday, March 7th, 2018 – 8:42 am

    Laura Tingle has signed a $15,000 contract for two days’ work with the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet and says she sees no conflict in the job.

    No Laura, no conflict of interest at all…
    I’m sure that your new employer won’t mind in the slightest. All part of the job description, in fact.

    Can anyone advise what the nature of the contract is? I’ve tried to get into the article in the Australian but it seems to have bulletproof walls around it.

  21. James Carleton‏ @JamesACarleton

    Senator @JimMolan: If indigenous people “make a decision to remain in a town which has no jobs…then you’ve got to accept the consequences”. Point A: Ask Nats if that also applies to non-indig ppl in those towns. Point B: Only 25% of indig ppl live in remote or very remote areas

  22. Another one bits the dust.

    Sky News Australia
    11 mins ·
    #BREAKING: The White House has confirmed US President Donald J. Trump’s top economic adviser Gary Cohn has resigned.

    And right when the president is in the middle of setting off a trade war.

  25. “Within the 30 years that we have not cleared, they went from saying ‘You don’t understand’, they then say ‘You have to do it’ and then ‘You don’t want to clear? What’s wrong with you?’. It’s now come to hate,” Kate says.

    Kate and another say their dogs have been shot, cattle stolen, they are excluded, nobody looks out for them or helps them out in a storm, and neighbours have come in and cleared some of their property without their permission.

    But they feel for their neighbours.

    “When you’re jammed into a corner, you don’t want to see anything else. They’ve been jammed into a corner,” she says.

    and

    Kate also thinks not clearing her land aligns her with “greenies” in the eyes of her neighbours, and that threatens them

    This really resonates with my experience and thinking too. What to do with people like that? On the one hand they are threatened by a neighbour who doesnt clear their land – I mean toughen up! And on the other hand they resort to exclusion, threats, shooting dogs ….

    Do you try to reason with these people (it is not just individual people, it is now a cultural group with a political party whistling them on) with a softly inclusion style approach? Or do you treat them like bullies and in some cases criminals? Because what started out as an obstinate, narrow minded thickhead tendency (often considered an endearing trait of those in the bush); is turning into Deliverance.

    Forget Islam; is this now the real Clash of Civilisations?

    Cheers to the Guardian for their ongoing coverage of environmental issues.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/07/scorched-country-the-destruction-of-australias-native-landscape

  26. lizzie + adrian

    I’m sure the prospect of further $7,500 a day bonanzas will not affect her future writing in the least .Ho ho ho.

  27. Ron Jones ❄‏ @RBJRON · 15h15 hours ago

    Replying to @JamesACarleton @JimMolan

    If a small town lost its only source of employment would you tell them they all had to move elsewhere for a job? What about the unemployed in large towns? Is this how the LNP works? Discriminate against minorities?

    StoneFishHugger‏ @mnxmoosi · 14h14 hours ago
    1. It’s absolutely how the LNP works. In 2014 Barnett forcibly evicted Oombulgurri, they let them take a single box of belongings each, then bulldozed the town & everything left in it – white goods, cars, furniture, clothes, & buried the lot so there was nothing to come back to

    2. They were promised there was accommodation for them but it was a lie. Families with small kids, the elderly & sick were left camped in an abandoned town car park for months. There were suicides because of it

    3. They’ve been threatened with arrest if they try to return & one of the most disgusting things about that is that Oombulgurri is a 20th century massacre site & they’re being refused access to their Country & the memorials

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/27/the-trauma-of-oombulgurris-demolition-will-be-repeated-across-western-australia

  28. From the Oz article:

    Laura Tingle, who is about to move to a new role as chief political correspondent at the ABC’s 7.30, won the tender from Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s department to work at the Association of South East Asian Nations summit in Sydney this month.

    Tingle will undertake hosting duties at the ASEAN Business Summit at the International Convention Centre from March 16 to 17. Despite her role as one of the nation’s leading political journalists, Tingle denied that the arrangement with Mr Turnbull’s department could present a conflict of interest.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/fairfaxs-tingle-sees-no-conflict-in-job-for-pm/news-story/6833e5a02b240741db86d37bbc6fb245

  29. And:

    Explaining her $15,000 fee, the journalist said she had been devoting “quite a lot of my down time when I’m not at work” to research and preparation ahead of the event, where she will serve as MC at a Women in Business breakfast and facilitate roundtable discussions.

  30. Laura Tingle‏Verified account @latingle · 9m9 minutes ago

     More

    PM @TurnbullMalcolm says the election will be next year and there are no thoughts or plans for an election other than at the norml time

    Is LT the PM’s new PR person?

  34. Simon K

    Kate and another say their dogs have been shot, cattle stolen, they are excluded, nobody looks out for them or helps them out in a storm, and neighbours have come in and cleared some of their property without their permission.

    The ‘country greenies’ are a different breed from the city Greens: They are brave to stand out from the crowd.

  36. Confessions @ #1572 Wednesday, March 7th, 2018 – 9:54 am

    Another one bits the dust.

    Sky News Australia
    11 mins ·
    #BREAKING: The White House has confirmed US President Donald J. Trump’s top economic adviser Gary Cohn has resigned.

    And right when the president is in the middle of setting off a trade war.

    Probably directly because of a looming trade war one would think.

    Tom.

  37. lizzie @ #1571 Wednesday, March 7th, 2018 – 9:52 am

    James Carleton‏ @JamesACarleton

    Senator @JimMolan: If indigenous people “make a decision to remain in a town which has no jobs…then you’ve got to accept the consequences”. Point A: Ask Nats if that also applies to non-indig ppl in those towns. Point B: Only 25% of indig ppl live in remote or very remote areas

    The very same hypocritical thinking from another privileged whitie. It doesn’t apply to them of course. Them move for a job? Gotta be kidding. We pay them to go to their jobs, and pay for their bonking trips to boot.

    The insensitivity and lack of understanding of the basics of cultural difference, as epitomised by place of country, is stultifying.

  39. ItzaDream @ #1587 Wednesday, March 7th, 2018 – 10:13 am

    lizzie @ #1571 Wednesday, March 7th, 2018 – 9:52 am

    James Carleton‏ @JamesACarleton

    Senator @JimMolan: If indigenous people “make a decision to remain in a town which has no jobs…then you’ve got to accept the consequences”. Point A: Ask Nats if that also applies to non-indig ppl in those towns. Point B: Only 25% of indig ppl live in remote or very remote areas

    The very same hypocritical thinking from another privileged whitie. It doesn’t apply to them of course. Them move for a job? Gotta be kidding. We pay them to go to their jobs, and pay for their bonking trips to boot.

    The insensitivity and lack of understanding of the basics of cultural difference, as epitomised by place of country, is stultifying.

    Well said. These people have no shame.

  40. Yes, the resignation happened as a direct result of the Tariff decision by Trump. Wilbur Ross won the argument, Gary Cohn lost. GC resigned.

    It’s almost as if these NeoProtectionists have a form of Economic Snow Blindness to the outcomes that Protectionism led to last time it was tried. And, like the history that extensively recorded those times, are doomed to repeat it.

  44. Well said. These people have no shame.

    They are simply White Superiorists.

    I don’t like to refer to them as White Supremacists because they allow those Indigenous Men and Women who wish to buy into their mindset, like Warren Mundine, to co-exist with them. This is because they think their way,the Great White Way, is the superior way to live and if you subscribe to it, good, if you don’t, then get out of their way because they will impose it upon you, regardless.

  45. Turnbull says no election until next year. Plenty of time for him to close the polling gap – which isn’t all that large when you consider how disfunctional the coalition has been in recent times.

    Labor was thumped in Tassie and faces a series of tough challengers. It’s at the end of its tether in SA, the underdog in NSW and struggling in Victoria.

    Testing times.

  46. Rick WilsonVerified account@TheRickWilson
    30m30 minutes ago
    Kellyanne breaks the law
    Roger does the shows
    Trade was Cohn’s fatal flaw
    As everyone now knows

    Trump fans try to rise above
    And claim he’s at his peak
    I must confess I really love
    This infrastructure week.

  48. Confessions @ #1591 Wednesday, March 7th, 2018 – 10:21 am

    C@t:

    What do you make of suggestions the Democrats have a shot at taking Ted Cruz’s seat this year?

    Good Luck. I’d like to see the breakdown between the religious Republicans in Texas who put Cruz in the Senate and the Democrat demographics who can be energised to vote. Also, there is a sliver of hope that the Trumpanistas in the Republican Party may still bear some animosity towards Cruz after the Donald savaged him in 2016. It’s an interesting cross-section of republicans. The Evangelical Trump voters and the Religious Right Republican Cruz voters. Who’s who in the zoo? 🙂

  49. The Toorak Toff @ #1595 Wednesday, March 7th, 2018 – 10:26 am

    Turnbull says no election until next year. Plenty of time for him to close the polling gap – which isn’t all that large when you consider how disfunctional the coalition has been in recent times.

    Labor was thumped in Tassie and faces a series of tough challengers. It’s at the end of its tether in SA, the underdog in NSW and struggling in Victoria.

    Testing times.

    Hope springs eternal in Conservo Land, eh? 🙂

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