Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal rating takes a tumble, but otherwise little change in the latest Newspoll.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on last fortnight at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 38% (up one), Greens 9% (down one) and One Nation 7% (down one). Despite the stability on voting intention, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister has been slashed from 40-33 to 37-35. The Australian’s report relates that Turnbull is down two points on approval to 32%, and Shorten is down one to 33%, but the only hint we get about disapproval is that Turnbull’s result is worse than Shorten’s. More on that shortly. (UPDATE: Turnbull’s disapproval is up three to 57%, Shorten’s is up two to 56%). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1657.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,078 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. From the previous thread.

    Peg and Big A,

    Under what scenario would the mine go ahead?

    Under what scenario has Labor said the mine would go ahead?

    Are the two compatible?

  2. We know this doesn’t mean much but if Turnbull loses PP lead it may weaken his hold on leadership, especially if it happens with 30th Newspoll.

    GhostWhoVotes

    @GhostWhoVotes
    2m2 minutes ago
    More
    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Turnbull 37 (-3) Shorten 35 (+2) #auspol

  3. If, having campaigned so hard on Adani, the Greens win Batman will anybody ask Turnbull if the Tories will block the mine?

    No.

    All the questions will be to Labor and the Greens will be proud of themselves.

  4. The Adani mine is only alive because Labor refuses to kill it. They could kill it very cleanly by stating that a Shorten Labor Government would invoke the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act to block the project. Such a promise would guarantee that nobody will finance this bad project. There is a compelling national and global security interest in stopping new thermal coal mining projects. Labor ought to be using its influence as the likely next government to help Australia and the world to accelerate the shift to carbon neutral economies.

    Therefore, it is reasonable and fair to describe this as Labor’s mine. They are just too gutless to do the right thing.

  5. Well, the “important” figure, the one the MSM refers to when their is a huge gap in the TPP, shows that Shorten, despite being believed incapable of leading Labor to victory – as he has no charisma apparently, is hot on the heels of Mr Million Dollar Man. What will the response be I wonder if/when Shorten actually passes Turnbull as Preferred PM and there is a TPP poll of 5-47 to Labor?

  6. Gorks @ #6 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 6:40 pm

    We know this doesn’t mean much but if Turnbull loses PP lead it may weaken his hold on leadership, especially if it happens with 30th Newspoll.

    GhostWhoVotes

    @GhostWhoVotes
    2m2 minutes ago
    More
    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Turnbull 37 (-3) Shorten 35 (+2) #auspol

    Rex will be devastated.

  7. Just been reading over the past few pages while lunching at cricket.

    At risk of being accused of attacking the Greens, but they seem a little confused.

    They think ALP can change government policy whilst in opposition (pssst – secret: they can’t)

    Bhathal thinks she can change/make govt policy whilst holding a single seat in HoR (pssst – secret: they can’t)

    These are perfect examples of the pie-in-the-sky stuff that Greens seem hell bent on convincing people can happen despite the reality of facts and their relative position of power (or lack thereof)

  8. Round 245 (or whatever, I have lost count truth be known) of Kill Bill has worked a treat by the look of it.

    But we have been counting the losing Newspolls.

  9. From the previous thread:

    C@tmomma (Block)
    Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 9:38 pm
    Comment #3617
    Pegasus @ #3597 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 9:22 pm

    What’s so funny about running a campaign on an environmental issue around what could be the world’s biggest thermal coal mine, a mine which would impact on global warning.

    But apparently the consequences of global warming are only limited to Queensland.

    Because it is disingenuous to run a campaign on Adani when neither a successful Greens candidate, nor a successful Labor candidate can do anything about it.

  10. #Newspoll Preferred PM: Turnbull 37 (-3) Shorten 35 (+2) #auspol

    That trip to the US to meet and suck up with Dotard probably cost 1 point drop, Michaela Cash another 1 and father/not a father BeetRooter the final point.

    Cue an CPG Malcolm Reset ™

  11. Oh so close. The rending of garments if Bill finally gets a PPM win (and yes if it was to come on no.30 that would be sweeeeet!) will be a joy to behold.

  12. Interesting poll.

    The MSM is pushing for labor to ” take a firm position on Adani ” ( ie commit to pulling the pin on Adani). Plain as day. Once that is achieved they will crucify Shorten.

    Labor and Shorten just need to stick to the same lines they are using atm each and every time the Adani question is asked. Rinse and repeat.

    Politics ? Of course it is but fuck them.

    Make a dfference when in government while the greens banshee from the tower of impotence.

    Cheers and a great night to all.

  13. I suppose Katherine Murphy will say it wasn’t Malcolm’s fault that things turned to custard and he lost some skin.

    *sigh*

  14. From previous thread:

    Big A Adrian @ #3515 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 6:28 pm

    Adani is negotiating to get a mine up in Queensland with, guess who? A labor government. It has come this far thanks to the support of that government. The Qld *labor* government could have done the right thing and killed it off from the beginning…

    …along with any chance of winning the last Qld state election, and stopping the mine.

    They didn’t, instead they…

    …got re-elected and improved their situation from minority to majority government, and thus are now in a position to stop the mine, especially if federal Labor win their next election.

  15. “We know this doesn’t mean much but if Turnbull loses PP lead it may weaken his hold on leadership, especially if it happens with 30th Newspoll.

    GhostWhoVotes”

    This is a seriously juicy prospect. 🙂 If it hits 30 and they are behind on TPP and PPM things will get interesting really fast. Press will go Turnbull like hyenas with Abbott and his supporters egging them on. Watch Glorious Jewellery’s movements around Newspoll 30. I reckon she will be out of the country if the PPM goes bad for Truffles and its on.. 🙂

  16. An Opposition that is likely to win the next election can certainly influence business decisions that are made now between now and the next election. Labor supporters are being obtuse on this point. Labor could snuff out the small sliver of life that remains in the climate-change-exacerbating Adani coal project. But instead Labor entertains the idea that the project might still go ahead. They say it would create “sovereign risk” to invoke the EPBC Act to block the mine (a claim that is complete horsesh** because sovereign risk refers to decisions that violate the rule of law, not to decisions that are legally available to a new government). Labor’s refusal to guarantee that this dog of a project does not happen is reckless given how urgent it is to reduce carbon pollution as quickly as possible.

  17. doyley,
    I just saw Louise Pratt and Sally Macmanus interviewed on Patricia Karvelas’ show and she asked both of them about Adani, and both played the straightest of bats.

  18. An Opposition that is likely to win the next election can certainly influence business decisions that are made now between now and the next election. Labor supporters are being obtuse on this point.

    Thank you, Nicholas, for saying that Labor may win the next federal election, and then etc etc etc. However, there is many a slip between cup and lip, and a lot of water to go under the political bridge, so until Labor actually win that next federal election, your point is moot.

  19. Our Great LNP and PM will win the Batman Longman freemantle Braddon mayo
    And will also win the next election due in July 2020

  20. I suspect Malcolm will be sighing with relief that it didn’t get worse.

    I suspect Abbott is gnashing his teeth that it didn’t get worse for Malcolm.

  21. I wonder if there is a trump factor. Maybe somebody way smarter than me could look back and see if Turnbull’s PPM vote took a dip every time he visits the US.

    Most of the world seems to regard Trump as an idiot, surely it’s dangerous to be seen to be too close to him.

  22. Cash giving Shorten ‘Hugh Hefner’ status, as some wag on ABC breakfast put it, has gone down a treat.

    But seriously, do these idiots literally have to eat babies before the TPP shifts?

    Enjoyed your song ratsak.

  23. “and both played the straightest of bats.”

    Everybody against this mine who may be able to influence any decision can. 🙂

    Its not going ahead. For all the reasons (i think steve77’s post?? ) gone over in the last thread.

    The Libs are well into wasted effort here. They will follow up on this hard hoping to shore up QLD, but its a nothing. ALP just need to keep to the line that all will be done according to the law, but they are sceptical about the projects environmental and financial viability, and wont be pumping public money into it.

  24. Cat,

    Thanks for that report. Good to see.

    Labor is being very disclipined on the Adani issue. Rinse and repeat. Rinse and repeat.

    The MSM are just frothing for a crack in the ranks. That is why all the Vox pops and hand wringing from the MSM is currently under way.

    Labor and the labour movement are holding firm. All that is important is the end result. Adani will not go ahead. How we get there is irrelevant but burning political capital is bullshit. Shorten and labor realise this.

    Cheers.

    Cheers.

  25. Anyone else seriously sick of hearing about Adani? I’m seriously so sick of this bullshit Greens are pushing that somehow Adani is Labor’s mine.

    Labor is trying to change life for the better for millions of Australians while constantly being sniped by Greens for things it has no control over. I’m so sick of Greens that I may even start preferencing them lower on Senate.

    How privileged you got to be that your whole concern is for a mine in Queensland that you couldn’t even point on the map, and will not even go ahead in any case?

  26. “But seriously, do these idiots literally have to eat babies before the TPP shifts?”

    Probably. Depends on what sauce they use.

    I reckon even a Lib / Nat shaved goat with mango butter incident would not change the TPP.

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