The Advertiser has YouGov Galaxy polls targeting the three seats held by independents, which show Geoff Brock and Frances Bedford headed for re-election in Frome and Florey, but Duncan McFetridge struggling in Morphett. In Frome, the Liberals lead the primary vote 44% to Geoff Brock’s 36%, which almost exactly reverses the result in 2014, but preferences from Labor on 15% and the Greens on 3% boost him to a 52-48 lead. Frances Bedford leads in Florey by 36% to 31% and 57-43 on two-party preferred, with the Liberals on 21%, the Greens on 5% and others on 7%.
Morphett is more complex, with the Liberals’ 39% short of what would guarantee them victory, but with the rest of the vote shared by Labor on 22%, SA Best on 17% and Duncan McFetridge on 16%. The Advertiser provides a 55-45 two-party lead for the Liberals against Labor, but there would seem a strong chance that one out of SA Best and McFetridge could pass Labor with the other’s preferences, then defeat the Liberals on Labor preferences.
The polls also have preferred premier results that find Steven Marshall on 31%, Jay Weatherill on 24% and Nick Xenophon on 20% in Frome; Marshall 39%, Weatherill 29% and Xenophon 18% in Morphett; and Weatherill 28%, Xenophon 28% and Marshall 18% in Florey. The polls were conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, from samples of 513 in Frome, 525 in Morphett and 506 in Florey.