The Advertiser has YouGov Galaxy polls targeting the three seats held by independents, which show Geoff Brock and Frances Bedford headed for re-election in Frome and Florey, but Duncan McFetridge struggling in Morphett. In Frome, the Liberals lead the primary vote 44% to Geoff Brock’s 36%, which almost exactly reverses the result in 2014, but preferences from Labor on 15% and the Greens on 3% boost him to a 52-48 lead. Frances Bedford leads in Florey by 36% to 31% and 57-43 on two-party preferred, with the Liberals on 21%, the Greens on 5% and others on 7%.
Morphett is more complex, with the Liberals’ 39% short of what would guarantee them victory, but with the rest of the vote shared by Labor on 22%, SA Best on 17% and Duncan McFetridge on 16%. The Advertiser provides a 55-45 two-party lead for the Liberals against Labor, but there would seem a strong chance that one out of SA Best and McFetridge could pass Labor with the other’s preferences, then defeat the Liberals on Labor preferences.
The polls also have preferred premier results that find Steven Marshall on 31%, Jay Weatherill on 24% and Nick Xenophon on 20% in Frome; Marshall 39%, Weatherill 29% and Xenophon 18% in Morphett; and Weatherill 28%, Xenophon 28% and Marshall 18% in Florey. The polls were conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, from samples of 513 in Frome, 525 in Morphett and 506 in Florey.
(repost from previous thread as I had posted it shortly before it being closed)
Interesting upper house HTVs. I’ll start by expressing my dismay that Labor have put the Conservatives at #3 (after the Greens.) Hopefully election of Labor/Greens MLCs sponges most of that overhang up.
Having said that, the Conservatives have done well for themselves in the preference game (as Family First used to do) and could easily get over the line, especially if their primary is around the amount suggested in that Newspoll. SA Best doing terribly in the preference game (unsurprising; nobody wants them to establish a presence.) Other interesting element is that #2 SA Best preference goes to Dignity. It’s plausible that, should the SA Best vote be a bit weaker than expected, Kelly Vincent gets back in on the SA Best overhang.
Labor down to $1.83 (from $2.25) and Liberal down to $2.40 (from $2.75), whereas SA Best up to $5.50 (from $2.70) on Ladbrokes.
Looks like the bookies have given up on Xenophon. Whereas they’re slightly more confident of a Labor win than before but the difference is still too close to put any sense of strong confidence or certainty in it.
(Insert usual caveat that the bookies can be wrong)
These seat poll results may have been harmed by Oakden. The next ones might be harmed for the Liberals in the reverse direction by this overly generous $1.2 million donation to their glorious leader, Steve Marshall.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-05/marshall-faces-further-questions-over-potential-zou-donation/9509062
Seriously, who hands over one million $ to a politician without expecting anything in return? (Apart from taxpayers in electoral dollars per vote).
Go Frances Go!
Wont make a difference in Florey Socrates. The 21% remaining Libs (down 13%) would mostly just hop to Bedford anyway.
Watching the SA leaders debate. Fairly civilised as such things go. Weatherall is going well – several rounds of applause – and Marshall caught out denying he was going to abolish the renewable energy target.
I can’t reconcile the extent of the odds favouritism for the ALP, when I look at the notional seats held by each party in Mr Bowe’s Election Guide (post the redistribution), and factor in a diminishing SA Best vote, when a strong SA Best vote was mainly going to hurt the Liberals, according to many posting here.
Is it expected that the ALP will retain many of the seats with ALP members, but now notionally Liberal? Surely that would imply a large fairly 2PP swing to a 16 year old government, which seems unlikely.
On the other hand, ‘Diogenes’ has said recently that the SA Libs are just hopeless, so is such a swing less unlikely then one might suppose?
Its a balance between the incompetence of the ALP on hospitals v the all tip & no iceberg Liberals v No overall policy SA Best.
3 average parties. Very little to get excited about.
If we had voluntary voting there would be about a 60% turnout.
And most people will choose their own 2nd preferences irrespective of the how to vote cards & deals.
Drop in SA Best vote is not as spectacular as the last Newspoll made it out to be because of methodology changes.
Look it’s all going to be interesting.
The ALP is very good at campaigning in marginal seats. It’s also good at courting independants.
My prediction is an ALP Government with Xenophon support, if the Liberals do not get a majority in their own right.
It will be extremely interesting to see if these upper house HTVs are followed to any significant degree. I am at least pleased to see most of the major parties recommending filling out more than one box (or at least making clear on their HTVs that this is an option). Was this a requirement of the new legislation?
As for SA Best, it looks like they have done some sort of deal with Dignity but stayed aloof from everyone else, and they have all responded in kind. I suspect lots of voters will ignore the HTVs and preference them anyway though. Concerning to see the Conservatives getting Labor preferences, but my suspicion is they’ll win a seat anyway and it won’t matter. Looks like the Greens and Animal Justice have made peace here as well.
Reason Labor will be putting Conservatives 3 in LC is that Conservatives have given a straight second preference to Mulligan in Lee and split tickets to Lab/Lib in Newland, to Lab/SA Best in Pt Adelaide, Lab/Lib in Light. Haven’t checked everywhere.
Greens and Conservatives are preferencing against SA Best everywhere I looked except Greens pref SA best ahead of Labor in Enfield (Rau). And the Libs must really hate Rau – they have put the Greens ahead of him which is also the only one of these I found.
And for some reason the HTV for Norwood haven’t appeared on ECSA. Marshall missing the action?
Marshall’s seat is now called Dunstan.
The Greens do not appear to have lodged a HTV in Gibson unless I am missing something?
It would be nice to see a bit more polling in the LIB v ALP seats. So far we have only really seen Lee, which looked somewhat encouraging for the Liberals. None of the other seats polled so far really give us much insight into more of the traditional type of contests.
Seats they should think about polling include Adelaide, Black and Gibson. Colton, Dunstan, Hurtle Vale and Elder would also be good choices. If the ALP can win perhaps 2 of these sorts of seats, and the LIBS lose a few to SA Best, it really will be a very tight election.
SA Best looking more like Clive Palmer Collective and Jacqui Lambie Experience (2 great prog rock bands of the 70s).
Xenephon will not win and anyone elected will act as stray cat independents.
@Holden Hillbilly
On what basis are you writing off X in Hartley? I’ve seen no poling there for ages and certainly wouldn’t be prepared to do that.
Have we seen any polling for Norwood since the tram announcement? Marshall is not building it but promising a tax cut, which leaves residents of his electorate who do not own a business with turnover more than $1.5 million, with precisely nothing. He must have a lot of faith in their loyalty.
@Socrates good point. There was talk of internal poling some weeks back suggesting he could be in some trouble.
From what I heard, the “SA Lib insiders” were apparently confident that Marshall has his own seat easily sewn up, with their internal polling showing neither SAB nor Labor a threat there anymore.
Mind you, they’re the same clowns who lost 2010 and 2014, believed they were on track to a 1993 level landslide in 2014 and claimed they were on track to win every seat but Port Adelaide in the 2013 Federal Election (and that Hindmarsh was safe and Adelaide looked like flipping in 2016.) So, I have no idea haha.
Betting odds update: Liberals down to $2.25 (from $2.40), Labor up to $1.90 (from $1.83), SA Best up to $6.00 (from $5.50)
Labor should also keep reminding people of the fib Marshall was caught on in the debate that he IS abolishing the state RE target. So he will take SA back to the same Federal scheme that saw power prices rise in the first place.
Plus the biggie is how he pays for the cut to state taxes. The GST is fixed so state revenue will fall. That must mean public service job and service cuts, including in health.
How-to-vote cards for all 47 House of Assembly districts and the Legislative Council
https://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/voting/how-to-vote-cards
In Dunstan
In Dunstan, Labor puts the Dignity candidate, former Norwood footballer Ben Wilson, ahead of Steven Marshall. Wilson puts Marshall above Labor’s Matt Loader.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/08/green-groups-target-adelaide-festivals-ahead-of-sa-election-and-reviews-are-mixed
“Culture meets politics as environmental groups distribute scorecards rating the major parties’ environment policies”
This move by Steve Marshall is nuts. The turn in tram tracks he is promising was studied to death and found not to work. So it makes no sense to promise it now. But even more bizarre, he is promising to spend $35 million doing it, when the quoted price was $20 million. Why?? Does a contractor mate need $15 million?
https://indaily.com.au/news/politics/2018/03/08/libs-promise-right-hand-tram-turn/
Socrates, it kind of speaks to the echo chamber the Libs live in. That “turn right” problem is something that is a talking point among rusted-ons and biased commentators like Chris Kenny, Caleb Bond, Miles Kemp, Michael Owen etc. who desperately wanted something to nitpick about the tram extension because they know it’s a good and popular idea and they know the last time they were oppositional to a tram extension, they were proven wrong.
It lacks vision and is desperation to have some transport policy.
What is it with the Liberal war on public transport? Do they not understand our roads are full up with traffic? They are abolishing all the proposed new tram lines except, conveniently, the one that would run through their enclave in North Adelaide. Vandals.
https://indaily.com.au/news/politics/2018/03/09/libs-wont-rebuild-adelaides-suburban-tram-network/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=9%20March%202018&utm_content=9%20March%202018+CID_746a1dd7cf9117ed064073e048484814&utm_source=&utm_term=Libs%20wont%20rebuild%20Adelaides%20suburban%20tram%20network
When you’re in the pockets of fossil fuel lobbyists who want you to kill renewables, you might as well throw “keep people driving cars” in as well. Two-for-one sale.