BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Poll trend latest: Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull up, One Nation down, two-party picture unchanged.

The only poll this week was a Newspoll that gave the Coalition its best result since last April, but given the pollster’s stability over that time, that isn’t saying all that much. Certainly it hasn’t made much difference to BludgerTrack, on which the Coalition improves only on the primary vote, and that at One Nation’s expense rather than Labor’s. The Coalition is up one on the seat projection in Queensland, but down one in Western Australia. The change is more noticeable on the leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval trend picking up sharply, and confirms his recent uptick on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

617 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  2. Dio, I think the timing is to do with the fact that Newspoll 27 (thanks BW) is past and only 6 weeks or so until the dreaded #30. A good time to start white anting Brian Trumble and his supporters (Barnaby et. al.) with number 30 only 6 weeks or so away…

    Expect to see some nice stories about “insert Rupert’s pick for leader here”. Only question is who? Abbott, Dutton, Bishop… ???

    Tom

  3. Diogenes it’s been possitted that the smellygraph was waiting for the money shot. Hard to believe it’s taken this long for that to happen.
    I suspect that someone got wind that a competitor were about to go public.
    Funny enough in that tweet thread for Malcolm Farr IA reminded him that they broke the story prior to the by-election.
    Didn’t stop Farr from doubling down on stupid in his responses.

  4. #WeatheronPB: thunderstorms in Sydney now after a hot, partly cloudy day, max temps 30-33 in most suburbs, 36-39 in the outer West.

  6. I see Josh Frytheplanet is pushing drum bating sharks in WA to protect swimmers.

    When will these f*cking idiots start making sense.

  9. BB

    Spot on! Any little inconsequential item was made into such a big deal during the Gillard tenure. It felt like a continual assault by the msm as well as Abbott and co. Yet here we are with the ongoing shit show that is the Turnbull Govt, and the media does self reflection. Well they can go and get well and truly stuffed

  10. I just do not see the media moving away from Turnbull, no matter how dire his situation might become. Even Murdoch will strategically back him if the prospect of a Shorten PMship looms.

    30 Newspolls will come and go and it will be rationalised away – “that was then, this is now”, “circumstances have changed” etc.

    The support, nay, adoring love the media has for Turnbull is truly heroic, like nothing I have ever seen before.

  11. Farr seems peeved that Beetroot didn’t follow journalistic advice as to how to handle his “issue”.

    Perhaps Farr shouldn’t have seen it as his position to offer it.

  12. Desert Qlder says:
    Friday, February 9, 2018 at 7:43 pm
    I just do not see the media moving away from Turnbull, no matter how dire his situation might become. Even Murdoch will strategically back him if the prospect of a Shorten PMship looms.

    30 Newspolls will come and go and it will be rationalised away – “that was then, this is now”, “circumstances have changed” etc.

    I don’t think Abbott will let it go that easily.

  13. . It felt like a continual assault by the msm as well as Abbott and co.
    That’s exactly what it was. Rupert had decided Australia needed regime change.

    Yet here we are with the ongoing shit show that is the Turnbull Govt, and the media does self reflection. They are very selective as to when to do it. I wouldn’t mind if they were consistent. Barnaby deserves the truth, nothing more, nothing less. If he wanted to bang on about family values, he should have lived up to them. Liars and hypocrite should always be exposed. No sympathy from me.

    Well they can go and get well and truly stuffed given close and detailed attention by a taxidermist.

  18. Good evening all,

    It should be remembered that tomorrow the NSW liberals decide on the Tony Abbott championed voting changes for members in NSW.

    If it is rejected after a majority of members voted in favour expect a few words from Tony.

    So much for labor ” factional battles “.

    Cheers.

  19. Anyone heard anything or read anything about what Baaaanaby’s colleagues in the Nats make of all this? Any rumblings of discontent? Any possibility of a Nat spill?

  20. William
    That’s alright, I don’t feel victimised.
    I tend to prefer short posts. Sometimes “you fuckwit” seems to work better than a long rambling dissection of a particular piece of idiocy.

  21. I actually deleted the “fuckwit” comment, but undeleted it when it became clear the horse had bolted. It was other, earlier, entirely inoffensive comments that fell foul of the spam filter.

  22. I’m not a huge fan of #barnabyjoyce but if we start reporting on politicians’ private lives NO-ONE apart from the Christian Right will ever stand for office.
    __________
    Do you mean like Ross Cameron?

  23. Bemused I could have sworn I read something that said Barnaby was fronted by Pitt and the nat from Victoria in November or December and were rewarded with being dumped in the reshuffle for their trouble. I can’t remember where I read it but pretty sure it was today.
    #pbshorttermmemoryloss

  24. Bolt is an excellent spokesman for Murdoch and he sings in His Master’s Voice in perfect pitch. He has totally dumped on Turnbull for ages now, then Bishop, then, Brandis, then Morrison (although I’m sure that’s retrievable) and now he’s dumped on Barnaby.
    I suspect that Murdoch has cut all the Turnbull enablers free. In some ways that even includes Mr Potatohead, about whom Bolt is pretty lukewarm. Incidentally Hastie is his favourite as the long-term future Lib leader.

  25. doyley @ #468 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 7:58 pm

    Good evening all,

    It should be remembered that tomorrow the NSW liberals decide on the Tony Abbott championed voting changes for members in NSW.

    If it is rejected after a majority of members voted in favour expect a few words from Tony.

    So much for labor ” factional battles “.

    Cheers.

    Guess who is one of the other major foes against Malcolm Turnbull and his ‘Moderates’?

    Jolly Jim Molan. 🙂

  26. Diogenes @ #474 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 8:16 pm

    Bolt is an excellent spokesman for Murdoch and he sings in His Master’s Voice in perfect pitch. He has totally dumped on Turnbull for ages now, then Bishop, then, Brandis, then Morrison (although I’m sure that’s retrievable) and now he’s dumped on Barnaby.
    I suspect that Murdoch has cut all the Turnbull enablers free. In some ways that even includes Mr Potatohead, about whom Bolt is pretty lukewarm. Incidentally Hastie is his favourite as the long-term future Lib leader.

    Hell no! Not Mr Christian Soldier himself!?! Anyway, he comes from WA. 😀

  27. Aqualung @ #473 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 8:14 pm

    Bemused I could have sworn I read something that said Barnaby was fronted by Pitt and the nat from Victoria in November or December and were rewarded with being dumped in the reshuffle for their trouble. I can’t remember where I read it but pretty sure it was today.
    #pbshorttermmemoryloss

    Yes, I recall that too, including it being mentioned on PB.
    But that occurred before all the publicity so surely a few more Nats will be getting restive?

  28. Diogenes @ #448 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 7:13 pm

    C@t
    Bingo.

    How do you reckon it went down when Susan Lamb made her tearful confession of her family circumstances in parliament and then the good burghers of Longman saw the heartless bastards in the Coalition, from Malcolm Turnbull down, saying, too bad, so sad, now off to a by-election so we can win your seat back?

    I’m guessing, as not everyone in Australia is as heartless as a Coalition MP, the support was all for Susan Lamb.

  29. BK. That should be rephrased. If we start reporting on people’s private lives, the Christian Right will never be able to stand for office.

  30. Aqualung

    I recall it being reported a couple of times that Putt and Joyce do not get on and that Pitt had confronted him over the marital troubles.

    Pitt was subsequently a casualty in the reshuffle.

    And I daresay Chester would not be happy either. He seems to have been well regarded and competent, something one of the new Nat ministers Littleproud almost certainly is not.

    Does that turn into trouble? Time will tell.

  31. C@t
    I’ve always found it impossible to argue or get stuck into someone if they cry. It’s nothing to do with men not coping with women crying. Men can’t cope with anyone crying. You know you are stuffed if that happens.

  33. Diogenes @ #481 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 8:23 pm

    C@t
    I’ve always found it impossible to argue or get stuck into someone if they cry. It’s nothing to do with men not coping with women crying. Men can’t cope with anyone crying. You know you are stuffed if that happens.

    Except when it’s Joe Hockey crying crocodile tears. 🙂

  35. Except when it’s Joe Hockey crying crocodile tears.

    When he spoke in opposition to the Malaysia Solution. Made me want to vomit, not my normal reaction to tears.

  36. bemused @ #477 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 5:18 pm

    Aqualung @ #473 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 8:14 pm

    Bemused I could have sworn I read something that said Barnaby was fronted by Pitt and the nat from Victoria in November or December and were rewarded with being dumped in the reshuffle for their trouble. I can’t remember where I read it but pretty sure it was today.
    #pbshorttermmemoryloss

    Yes, I recall that too, including it being mentioned on PB.
    But that occurred before all the publicity so surely a few more Nats will be getting restive?

    I’d suggest they’d be battening down the hatches and laying low! 🙂

  38. NE Qld @ #464 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 4:55 pm

    Will Susan Lamb be eligible to run in a by election given her current situation. If the HC knocks her back that is.

    No, if the HC said that her current situation wasn’t Constitutionally acceptable then she would have to successfully renounce her UK citizenship before she could stand.

  41. ajm @ #490 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 5:54 pm

    NE Qld @ #489 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 7:48 pm

    Thanks Barney. Which means contacting her estranged mother?

    I suspect Susan Lamb’s citizenship will have been quietly resolved in the background by now. The ALP lawyers will have been on to it in a big way.

    It’s not a problem now the Libs say they won’t refer her.

    Technically she could continue to sit and re-contest the next election but then she would be susceptible to challenge from someone contesting the seat.

  43. Steve777 says:
    Friday, February 9, 2018 at 8:35 pm
    Except when it’s Joe Hockey crying crocodile tears.

    When he spoke in opposition to the Malaysia Solution. Made me want to vomit, not my normal reaction to tears.

    That was one of the greatest academy award performances I have ever seen. You would almost believe he had some sympathy for the asylum seekers – if you didn’t know what an arsehole he really is.

  44. Barney in Cherating @ #492 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 8:02 pm

    ajm @ #490 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 5:54 pm

    NE Qld @ #489 Friday, February 9th, 2018 – 7:48 pm

    Thanks Barney. Which means contacting her estranged mother?

    I suspect Susan Lamb’s citizenship will have been quietly resolved in the background by now. The ALP lawyers will have been on to it in a big way.

    If that’s the case then I’d suggest she’d be stuffed if it goes to the HC.

    No need to announce it to the world. The only thing that would be being litigated is whether she had taken sufficient steps to renounce before the last election. For all we know they may have discovered she was never a UK citizen anyway. Obviously Susan Lamb did not have any other documentation (eg birth certificate) showing her father was born in the UK, so perhaps he wasn’t. The way Labor brought it to a head by her making the statement to parliament suggests that they may have been trying to lure the government into a trap.

  45. Update on the Earthquake in Hualien County, Taiwan: http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/canadians-taiwan-earthquake-1.4527793

    12 dead, and 5 missing presumed dead. Much better than it looked a few days ago, but still sad. The aftershocks have stopped now. I am off back to Oz tomorrow.

    My mother, who of course listens to ABC radio during the night, and knew by 3am Wednesday morning that there had been a quake, asked me why I needed to go to countries that were at risk of earthquakes. In her defence, I did not ring her until around 11am Oz time. It reminded me how unusual Western Europe is in its geological stability, and I guess Australia, in that to many of us earthquakes do not even penetrate our thoughts as something we could be involved in.

    Also, National Geographic’s take on the earthquake here: https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/02/earthquake-swarm-taiwan-experts-disagree-spd/#close

    I think we can now say that it was not a swarm.

  46. JTI on the current need to be “outraged” . Paywalled so use Google trick.

    No room at the inn for the ideological traveller

    After spending a desultory hour or so on social media last night (it’s not my fault, there was no cricket on), I was reminded with a jolt the left has become the new moral majority and it is even more horrible, more censorious and more punitive than when its custodians were the Bible thumpers on the right…………………………..So, what is happening on the right? Has it become the new force for life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness? Well, no. I’m afraid there’s no room at the inn for the ideological traveller there either…Alas, the right proves itself to be just as censorious, just as punitive and just as relaxed as the left in banning things they don’t especially like.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/no-room-at-the-inn-for-the-ideological-traveller/news-story/64fcfd3d8de5174085da2cbc2005dc02

  48. So, let me understand what being a “victim” of spam is.

    Does this mean

    (a) I allegedly *sent* spam, or that

    (b) spam was sent/posted about me?

    As far as I know I didn’t send any, either to William or anyone else, so I presume (b)?

  50. Ratsak, you are one of PB’s Living National Treasures, far from Fuckwittery.

    I know, “small pond” and all that, but take the compliment.

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