Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

After taking a step forward in ReachTEL, the government takes a step back in the year’s second Essential poll.

The second poll of the year from the now-fortnightly Essential Research series has Labor’s lead widening from 53-47 to 54-46 — the primary votes will be with us later today.

Among the poll’s other findings are that 73% believe the cost of living has increased over the past year, and 75% believe energy prices have done so. Fifty-one per cent believe the cost of living has increased more quickly than their income, 28% that it has stayed even, and only 14% that their income has increased more. Eighty-three per cent thought the government should do more to make health insurance affordable, and 60% believed health insurance wasn’t worth the premiums.

Thirty-two per cent of respondents thought the political and economic system needed to be fundamentally changed, 48% favoured refinement, and only 8% registered satisfaction with the status quo. Questions on which party was best to handle various issues evoked the usual responses, with the Liberals doing better on managing the economy and terrorism, and Labor doing better on climate change and industrial relations (and, less predictably, housing affordability).

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1028.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,702 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. Pegasus says:
    Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 5:30 pm
    I make no apologies for providing information to rebut the claims, misrepresentations and untruths bandied about in relation to the Greens.

    Posting anti ALP articles helps this how?

  4. Trump and his cronies are under investigation because they’re Russian assets. The FBI has been assailed by Trump because it’s doing its job.

  6. A Tasmanian state election candidate has been disciplined by Labor after it emerged he photographed himself with a mobile phone between his buttocks.

    He couldn’t find his own arse with both hands, a torch, and Google Maps. He is an excellent fit for the ALP.

  9. A progressive government would not permit another privately owned toll road. The road network needs to be entirely publicly owned, and managed with an exclusive focus on achieving good social, environmental, and economic outcomes.

  10. jenauthor,

    Did I say I was.

    I just went back to my first posts this morning. All anti-Labor – nope.

    This place is starting to become like it was pre-2010 election – a toxic environment for anyone who does not champion the Labor cause, champions who consist of 90% plus of the posters here.

    I understand the angst.

  11. Nicholas @ #2505 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 5:38 pm

    A Tasmanian state election candidate has been disciplined by Labor after it emerged he photographed himself with a mobile phone between his buttocks.

    He couldn’t find his own arse with both hands, a torch, and Google Maps. He is an excellent fit for the ALP.

    What more do you need to know about The Greens?

  15. How would Australia respond to this:
    From a South Korean paper, flagged on Twitter by The Washington Post’s Tokyo Bureau Chief …

    Indeed, White House National Security Council senior director for Asian affairs Matthew Pottinger was reported as saying in a recent closed-door meeting with US experts on Korean Peninsula issues that a limited strike on the North “might help in the midterm elections.”
    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/very-very-bad

    It is early days and currently just one source but even if some Trump people are only thinking this it is worriesome.

  16. In fact out of the first 8 posts of mine this morning:

    1, 2 – anti political duopoly

    3 – anti C re growing queue for home care

    4 – Link to opinion piece on Adani

    5 – S44 – provided link to when JSCEM’s report will be released

    6 – chit chat with lizzie

    7 – Adani and Labor, politics of for

    8. – anti C – Refugee assessment

    Perception is everything


  17. Nicholas (AnonBlock)
    Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 5:44 pm
    Comment #2509

    A progressive government would not permit another privately owned toll road. The road network needs to be entirely publicly owned, and managed with an exclusive focus on achieving good social, environmental, and economic outcomes.

    That is a different argument. State governments have to build the roads and state governments can go broke.

  18. Gawd, if there was a suggestion that an ALP figure was blaming the victim of sexual assault young Nick and the Pegasus would be all over it like a rash!

  19. paaptsef

    Another typical smear of yours.

    In the 9 years I have posted here, I have never commented on these sort of matters.

    I understand your tactics, tactics that have been employed against me for the entire 9 years without success.

    Keep it up but don’t expect any more responses from me.

    I understand your angst.

  20. Perusing the Greens avalanche and Putin apologists, along with the Trump running dogs festooning their opinions on this blog, one is reminded of this gay dinner table in Moscow, prior to the 2016 US election, when all the gang was together…

  21. if there was a suggestion that an ALP figure was blaming the victim of sexual assault young Nick and the Pegasus would be all over it like a rash!

    Bob Brown has behaved disgracefully in relation to the sexual assault complaint made by a former ACT Greens volunteer. He has defended the ACT Greens’ extremely poor handling of that situation and he has thrown the former volunteer under a bus.

  23. Pegasus says:
    Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 4:44 pm
    People who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones…
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-03/row-over-labor-candidate-posing-with-mobile-phone-in-buttocks/9393512
    A Tasmanian state election candidate has been disciplined by Labor after it emerged he photographed himself with a mobile phone between his buttocks.

    And from the rest of the story – the incident happened “several years ago”, the candidate was reprimanded by the Labor leader and has apologised.

    However, while the Liberals naturally condemned the candidate, they couldn’t resist cracking a joke about the matter:

    “What this revelation has exposed is the fact that Labor don’t have a strong team — there are cracks appearing.”

  24. frednk

    I have some sympathy for VicLab, as the CoalFeds have deliberately decreased infrastructure funding, even when we are growing bigly.

  29. lizzie

    If the company can make money off it why not the State gov build it ? Charge a similar but slightly lower toll as they do not have to make so much profit as they only need to repay the costs. Motorists using will know that eventually they will end up owning the asset. Win win.

  30. It’s all about getting the trucks of the Westgate and local roads and we have this:

    The bridge should be moved “further east” and off-ramps carrying trucks to the Port removed, the report recommended.

    One of the “experts” was Mr Madden.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/liberals-say-justin-madden-should-be-stripped-of-planning-powers/news-story/d8a1ee210c7d361986a74c5b1e3da62b

    Oh the greens have got themselves mixed up in some lovely company.


  31. poroti (Block)
    Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 6:20 pm
    Comment #2528

    lizzie

    If the company can make money off it why not the State gov build it ? Charge a similar but slightly lower toll…

    You highlighted the problem in your post “slightly lower”. Th pressure will not be for slightly lower; it will be for removal. And what will be the first promise made by an opposition? Removal of the toll.

    Now that we have auto tolling why not put the toll back on the Westgate?

  32. Transurban, the private company beholden to share holders and driven by the profit motive, the company behind the unsolicited WGT….

    Even former premier, Jeff Kennet is against it.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/transurban-the-making-of-a-monster-20160512-gotjm9.html

    It was a spring evening in 1995 when a government last dictated terms to a group of bankers and builders who would go on to become an Australian toll road behemoth.

    ::::
    Yet such is this particular company’s dominance of the Australian private motorways – it controls 13 of the 15 Australian toll roads – that former NSW auditor-general Tony Harris describes it as a monopoly. This strategic advantage in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane gives it unparalleled private sector clout in transport planning and priorities.

  33. Poll Bludger Federal Election Sweep

    Name Week of Election
    C@tmomma 25/08/2018*
    Grimace 1/09/2018
    Confessions 1/09/2018
    Rossmcg 20/10/2018

    If you wish to join email your prediction to sjapplin@hotmail.com and your email will be deleted after your prediction is recorded.

    I’ll try to keep track of any predictions posted in the thread, without a guarantee it’ll be included. All forms of cheating and capitalising on insider knowledge are encouraged. The prize is gloating rights.

    * I assume you meant Saturday 25th August, not Sunday 26th August per your email

  35. Andrew Earlwoods post circa 2pm deserves a response -it’s an argument at least but sadly a bad one.

    The argument is essentially we can do better and some bad people eddie Obeid etc have dragged us down but we can adjust to the new reality and after all we are the only show in town etc.

    It’s essentially the reform communist argument circa 1990, ie those guys who were in charge before us let the side down but we’ve changed and can still be relevant. The problem is that the Vehicle, the ALP is fundamentally discredited and is beyond reform. The Greens voters of the 2010’s are essentially the inheritors of the Labor voters of the 70’s and 80’s.

    Those people have seen through The cynicism and careerism of the ALP and will never return. Tearing down the ALP and promoting new politics and new structures is the future – reform is impossible with the ALP on the scene. Look at the litany of Labor failure in the last forty years, death duties, capital gains, income tax , climate change. The small change incrementalist poll driven approach of the alp has failed on all fronts.

    The implosion of the ALP and bringing it about as quickly as possible will lead to a new and better system. The reality is that the ALP is barely hanging on.

    Look to our history – reform has actually been led in the small states, tassie and sa and in those states majority labor government will never ever return. Senate majorities are gone, primary votes of 35% and going down.

    Supporting the ALP is supporting the status quo. Tear it down and build something beautiful and better.

    Carthago&ALP est delendum

  37. And here are my first half dozen comments this morning, by way of comparison and a balanced perspective:

    * 7am: Salutations and comment re Putin press release.

    * 7.02am: Comment re Putin.

    * 7.27am: Shout out to BK.

    * 7.30am: Link to CNN commentary about Nunes Memo.

    * 7.57am: Comment re bastardry of Coalition and Greens combining in the Victorian Upper House, again, (and see, children, what voting for The Greens leads to?), to thwart a worthy ALP project.

    * 8.23am: Well-deserved compliment to CTar1.

    Then I put on my angel wings and went off to do my once a week volunteering job at the RSPCA Op Shop. 🙂

    What a nasty individual I am, eh?

  38. ESJ

    One of the saddest comments I read on here recently was wtte what’s the point of having a vision when it can’t be implemented.

  40. frednk

    The idea would be to set the toll as the means to pay for it. Once it is paid for the toll is removed. A la Auckland Harbour Bridge.

  41. grimace @ #2532 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 6:32 pm

    Poll Bludger Federal Election Sweep

    Name Week of Election
    C@tmomma 25/08/2018*
    Grimace 1/09/2018
    Confessions 1/09/2018
    Rossmcg 20/10/2018

    If you wish to join email your prediction to sjapplin@hotmail.com and your email will be deleted after your prediction is recorded.

    I’ll try to keep track of any predictions posted in the thread, without a guarantee it’ll be included. All forms of cheating and capitalising on insider knowledge are encouraged. The prize is gloating rights.

    * I assume you meant Saturday 25th August, not Sunday 26th August per your email

    Yep. 😳

  44. Well, the only thing you can sensibly conclude from The Greens not wanting the Westgate Tunnel is that they do want to clog up Melbourne’s Inner City suburbs with big, loud, polluting trucks!

    Vote Green.

    Get Noise, Visual and Air Pollution!

  48. A growing scandal around the handling of the sexual assault of a young Greens volunteer in the ACT was recently exposed by The Saturday Paper. Party founder Bob Brown weighed into the debate earlier this week, attacking the victim for her public anonymity.

    Well who’d have thought Saint Bob Brown would go the reverse Harvey Weistein defence: an old dinosaur refusing to learn new ways!

  49. Indeed Pegasus.

    The apparatchiks rule. Australians are on to it the 2 party “system” is decrepit and will collapse under its own hypocrisy and it will happen from without.

    You can’t ignore 35% and growing of the population and say it’s all good nothing to see here.

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