Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

After taking a step forward in ReachTEL, the government takes a step back in the year’s second Essential poll.

The second poll of the year from the now-fortnightly Essential Research series has Labor’s lead widening from 53-47 to 54-46 — the primary votes will be with us later today.

Among the poll’s other findings are that 73% believe the cost of living has increased over the past year, and 75% believe energy prices have done so. Fifty-one per cent believe the cost of living has increased more quickly than their income, 28% that it has stayed even, and only 14% that their income has increased more. Eighty-three per cent thought the government should do more to make health insurance affordable, and 60% believed health insurance wasn’t worth the premiums.

Thirty-two per cent of respondents thought the political and economic system needed to be fundamentally changed, 48% favoured refinement, and only 8% registered satisfaction with the status quo. Questions on which party was best to handle various issues evoked the usual responses, with the Liberals doing better on managing the economy and terrorism, and Labor doing better on climate change and industrial relations (and, less predictably, housing affordability).

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1028.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,702 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. I hope that Labor really wants the Integrity commission to be Independent and to have teeth.

    Good way to start the election year thats for sure.

  2. Turnbull going on about ‘corrupt’ arrangements between unions and businesses and the governments successes in prosecuting cases against unions.

    No mention, of course, that the businesses that were the other party to the ‘corrupt agreements’ but the government has very deliberately not prosecuted even one case against the equally ‘corrupt’ businesses.

    Rack off, Turnbull.

  3. Pegasus

    I don’t care that the Greens have lobbied for a Fed ICAC for years. The LNP originally introduced one in NSW>

    A good idea is a good idea and I am glad Federal Labor is on board.

    To me its all good. Its the issue I care about. 🙂

  4. craigjack36: Christ !!
    Where do you even get the batteries for a vibrator that big ?

    #auspol twitter.com/SheepOverboard…
    SheepOverboard: Australian Defence Industry minister Christopher Pyne launches Aus export drive with usual insider “dickpic”

    #AusPol pic.twitter.com/WG7r5HTd4I

  5. “So when it comes to wooing the RWers the “leaks” would be enhancing rather than damaging.”

    Given the inherent stupidity of the RW in Australia you are probably correct. Be interesting when parliament goes back. The start of the 2018 rolling LNP fwarkup season. Keep em comin thick and fast so everyone loses track and loses interest.

    How long till 30 newspolls anyway??

  6. Scott Ludlam:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/30/the-senate-acts-as-an-anti-corruption-body-barnaby-joyce-is-having-a-laugh

    I thought I’d been exposed to all the contorted excuses for not establishing a national anti-corruption body, but Barnaby Joyce just managed to lower the bar a fraction. The Senate is all we need for our national anti-corruption requirements, he announced on Sunday. The message is pretty clear – federal politicians will keep an eye on themselves and let you know if anything is amiss. As you were.

    :::
    It takes a crazy-brave kind of courage to state that “I don’t think there is a real sense in Australia of a concern with the political system,” as a straight-faced Barnaby Joyce told a press pack on Monday. This kind of rhetorical shark-jumping betrays a deep disconnection from the reality of the contempt with which mainstream politics is regarded in Australia.

    The idea of waiting around for some kind of bloated scandal to come to light before parliament gets around to establishing one is unconscionable. I lost count of how many times we lost Senate votes on motions to establish an anti-corruption commission, with Labor routinely lining up next to the government to squash the initiative. Next time such an attempt is made, the outcome needs to be different.

  7. “So when it comes to wooing the RWers the “leaks” would be enhancing rather than damaging.”

    I was thinking the same thing, especially in Morrison’s case but also Dutton. Kicking asylum seekers and welfare recipients will always go down well with the “Liberal” base, although not so much swinging voters. But if it’s about party leadership, it’s the base that counts.

  8. CTar1,

    Turnbull can rant on all he likes. I hope he keeps it up.

    The coalition natural response to any labor policy is to oppose it. Turnbull will continue to attack Shorten while completely ignoring the fact it is labor which is leading once again on a important issue.

    Calling out Shorten for ” dodgy deals” while opposing the establishment of a National Integrety Commission by that very same person is a ” tad” hypocritical.

    Once again, just as they were with negative gearing and so much else, the coalition are so fixated on attacking labor and Shorten that they fail to recognise they are being left behind.

    Cheers.

  9. Day 15 of the Massive National Campaign to Change a Date and have the Greens delivered yet?

    On even an itty bitty date?

    Let alone on addressing preventable middle ear disease in small children?

    Yeah. The Greens? Nah.

  10. An integrity commission with teeth and a budget will hobble LNP campaign donations.

    Just look at what it was doing in NSW before the LNP weakened it.

    Transparency and integrity in this areas is a big political plus for Labor. Even in NSW after the Obeid affair.

    Federally its so much better.

    Its really putting a yawning chasm between the conservative and progressive side of politics.

    Won’t hurt that it takes some oxygen away from Xenophon either.

  11. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jan/30/the-franklin-would-be-dammed-today-australias-shrinking-environmental-protections

    Guardian Australia interviewed 20 campaigners and political veterans and found broad – though not unanimous – agreement that a project similar to the Gordon-below-Franklin dam in scale and impact would be near impossible to stop now.

    :::
    Many of those interviewed say there has been a cultural shift, that there was once bipartisan agreement that protecting the environment was a public good, but that has disappeared as public life has become more ideological and parliament drawn from a narrower cross-section of the community.

    ::
    Lambert says there was a noticeable shift in the 1990s when industry lobbyists began to borrow techniques used in environmental campaigns to build community support for their position. Employed successfully, it helped shift the weight in decision-making discussions towards short-term economic gain over longer-term environmental benefits.

    It coincided with a dramatic growth in the number of industry-backed lobbyists employed to make their case in Canberra. At the same time, the number of professional environmental activists based in the capital has been cut in half since late last century.

  12. And even more Greens were ‘first’

    Yes, yet again, Shorten has finally adopted a Green Party policy.

    Let’s see, Christine Milne tried to have a bill for a federal corruption investigation agency introduced in the Parliament in 2013.

    The first Green made the Federal Parliament in 1996 (?) so it was so high on their list of ‘things to do’ that it took 17 years?

    Talk about such a body pre-date the existence of the Greens party by many years.

  13. Turnbull can rant on all he likes. I hope he keeps it up.

    Trumble opening his stupid mouth hasn’t helped him one iota since the honeymoon of the stupid starting wearing off at the start of 2016.

  14. Day 15 of the Massive National Campaign to Change a Date and have the Greens delivered yet?

    Budgies all over the national are shitting on it as we speak.

  15. Steve777 @ #160 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 11:03 am
    “So when it comes to wooing the RWers the “leaks” would be enhancing rather than damaging.”

    I was thinking the same thing, especially in Morrison’s case but also Dutton. Kicking asylum seekers and welfare recipients will always go down well with the “Liberal” base, although not so much swinging voters. But if it’s about party leadership, it’s the base that counts.

    So basically anti-Turnbull and lobbying for poll positions. I’m going to enjoy every last drop of shadenfreude to be squeezed out of this sh!tfight.

    As the lady said

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XypVcv77WBU

  16. Re: Water consumption in Sydney vs Melbourne

    “It’s a big difference.

    Does anyone know why?”

    Sydney, and anything North of it, is uninhabitable without a swimming pool. Melbourne has less of those “I will literally melt if I get out of the pool” days.

  17. CTar1

    In your haste for a gotcha, at least get your facts right and read the whole paragraph.

    The NIC Bill is very similar to a Bill introduced by Senator Bob Brown in June 2010.

    So, when did federal Labor introduce a bill for a NIC?

  18. One real achievement of the Greens, according to the Greens, was that their National Conference Resolution demanding freedom for Aung Sung Suu Kyi did the trick.

    I await with interest the next Greens Party National Resolution.

    Will they demand that Aung Sung Suu Kyi be jailed for genocide of the Rohingya?

    Or will that, like the 25 Aims of the Greens National Policy on Indigenous Affairs, have to wait until That Date is changed?

  19. Pegasus and CT

    Stop arguing. Labor Greens and others want a Federal Style ICAC.

    The forces of darkness don’t.

    Thats all voters will care about.

    Not who did it first! That credit goes to Nick Grenier.

  20. I think I’ll scroll Pegasus for a couple of days.

    Otherwise I’m expecting to read that the Greens were major proponents of federation of the Australian colonies.

  21. VP
    Half the Reef is dead and the Rest is on a trajectory of death some time in the next couple of days.
    I am sure that the Greens will make up a principle, an aim, a resolution, or even some self-parodying snarks, to fix it before it is dead.

  22. Pegasus

    The view of the people spoken to by The Guardian is indeed worrying.

    But here in WA the campaigners have had a couple of wins.

    First was getting a commitment from Mark McGowan to stop work on the freeway extension in Perth’s southern suburbs and then having him actually do it!

    Second was the banning of mining the environmentally sensitive Helena Aurora Range in the WA Goldfields.

    The environmental watchdog recommended three times the area be protected but the Tories kept asking for another opinion.

    Given the power of the iron ore lobby in WA and the big names they employed (the mining company had “labor” luminary Gary Gray on board) I feared the McGowan government would not be able to resist.

    But they did, and announced a few weeks ago that the area will be preserved forever in a national park. About three decades after that was first proposed.

    Now we just have to get WA Labor to follow through on its undertakings on fracking.

  23. Steve777
    .

    But if it’s about party leadership, it’s the base that counts.

    Exackery. If they have concluded their chances at the next national election are kaput then all that would matter to them would be the “leadership election” .

  24. ‘Pegasus says:
    Tuesday, January 30, 2018 at 11:21 am

    Boerwar,

    Look over there’

    At the Greens Massive National Campaign to Distract from Higher Priority Substantive Issues affecting Indigenous People?

  25. Sydney, and anything North of it, is uninhabitable without a swimming pool. Melbourne has less of those “I will literally melt if I get out of the pool” days.

    Four of our Brisbane neighbours have pools. They spend hours every week keeping them clean, but they rarely – if ever – use them. Too hot?

  26. The LNP base
    MattDoran91: PM Malcolm Turnbull currently on Miranda Devine’s Facebook live show.

    Not huge figures watching/listening… pic.twitter.com/1Fzgl639Va


  27. Turnbull was on a bit of a roll, IMO. He put made LGBTI marriages legal. He stared down the hideous Right who wanted to bastardize the legislation. Abbott was increasingly on the far outer. A couple of handy by-election wins. Won the ashes back. Some Labor fuckwit MPs could not be bothered to dot their eyes and cross their tees, making Shorten look silly. Job numbers are on the up and up. He got to make lots of positive announcements. Most of them were small beer but, hey, it is the Silly Season.
    And lo! Significant, damaging, destabilizing, destructive leaks begin again!
    As for who is doing it, who cares?
    It once again demonstrates that Turnbull has zero authority in his own Party.

  28. peg

    ‘ to push back against the myth Labor does all the “heavy lifting” in relation to some issues…’

    Well, in that case you need to provide examples relating to the ‘some issues’. Greens purportedly doing the ‘heavy lifting’ in other policy areas doesn’t do that.

  29. ‘antonbruckner11 says:
    Tuesday, January 30, 2018 at 11:32 am

    I thought Massola was going to Indonesia. You can’t have everything, I guess.’

    They may have stopped the boats.

  30. Barnyard and the rest of the Nats will got totally troppo of Malcolm tries to establish an ICAC. IT will be utter pandemonium.

  31. Heavy lifting for the Greens is when they accept a latte from a hideously exploited overseas student waiter on a salubrious trattoir in an leafy inner city suburb.
    Plus there is the White Man’s Burden.
    Man, THAT is heavy!
    Like, he’s my black brother and changing his Date is as heavy as.

  32. Pegasus, other Greens and ALL the Greens haters

    It is great that Labor adopts greens policies. In my opinion that is still the major important role of the Greens. Acts as a ginger group to goad Labor into doing the right thing and sometimes to make bold decisions. Once this was the role of the Left in the ALP but now it has moved to the Greens.

    I think this is a good thing.

    Now I realise the greens may have bigger and bolder plans but that is still a very long way off, so for now I am keen to see them do their main function ie kick ALP in progressive directions. Bring up new ideas etc.

    Possibly NXT will do the same for the Libs.

  33. Boerwar @ #185 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 11:32 am

    Turnbull was on a bit of a roll, IMO. He put made LGBTI marriages legal. He stared down the hideous Right who wanted to bastardize the legislation. Abbott was increasingly on the far outer. A couple of handy by-election wins. Won the ashes back. Some Labor fuckwit MPs could not be bothered to dot their eyes and cross their tees, making Shorten look silly. Job numbers are on the up and up. He got to make lots of positive announcements. Most of them were small beer but, hey, it is the Silly Season.
    And lo! Significant, damaging, destabilizing, destructive leaks begin again!
    As for who is doing it, who cares?
    It once again demonstrates that Turnbull has zero authority in his own Party.

    Methinks too much credit.

    LGBTalphabet legal – he was the man standing when the music stopped, didn’t campaign for it, but spruiked it as *his* loving gift to love when it was the peoples’. Made me puke.

    The religious right far from dealt with, but entrusted to the caring humane hands of the ghost who never dies.

    The by-elections were lay down miseres.

    Labor has its share of idiots, but hey, if we look at the relative numbers, on balance …

    Jobs, schmobs and population growth.

    He’s done nothing, except soil the TV screens with his rictus emeticus.

    Long may he begone.

  34. House GOP Puts Politics Over National Security And Votes To Release Phony Memo

    In response to the mounting evidence against Donald Trump, Republicans have decided to wage war against the U.S. intelligence community instead of holding an increasingly guilty president accountable.

    As the Huffington Post noted on Monday, “The release of the document is part of a pattern of behavior by the president and his congressional allies — all of it apparently aimed at undermining Mueller’s probe and shielding Trump from scrutiny.”

    This effort to thwart the investigation and undermine Mueller’s credibility has taken on new urgency in recent weeks as Trump looks increasingly guilty of obstructing justice. Just last week, it came to light that the president tried to fire Mueller.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2018/01/29/house-gop-puts-politics-national-security-votes-release-phony-memo.html

  35. @ DTT – the other ways the Greens benefit Labor are to help act to identify, and then influence public opinion so that Labor can do the right thing, without losing votes.

    Labor aren’t going to make ‘courageous’ decisions very often. Mainstream parties really can’t.

    So the Greens go out there, and help build the issue up to where it has popular support. They contributed on Marriage Equality, then Labor were able to join when it was safe.

    They’re contributing on save the date, and Labor will join in a few years.

    They started advocating for a National ICAC or similar, and then realised that the public was already in favor, so Labor was safe to join in.

  36. As an aside. For those that missed it last night. Stan Grant’s Facts Matter show reminded me of Kerry O Brien doing Lateline. I recommend catching up on Iview.

    First major question Grant asked was: Why are we still at war?

  37. Jaegar

    What you say is true.

    Now I do use my pool but the rest of my family virtually never. Even I do not use it more than say 30 days a year if I am honest. It is high cost and high labor just for me.

    Mind you there are days in January where it is a life saver and I spend hours in the pool. if there were a public pool anywhere nearby I might not have built one, but they are scarce as hens teeth in Brisbane. Far more in Melbourne and of course Sydney with its beaches and rock pools has lots.

    I remmber when I first moved to Brisbane the lack of public pools was a terrible disappointment.

    I had visions of spending hot evenings at a public pool while the kids splashed around and i organised a picnic dinner but all the pools shut at 6, did not have any grassy picnic areas anyway and even more seriously did not have any shallow ends in which no swimmers could play.

    It was swim laps in a lane or go away. I think things have improved a bit but I put in a pool so do not go looking.

  38. VE
    Don’t kid me. The Greens are helping the Greens. That is what they exist for, which, for political parties is fair enough.
    But DO stop kidding yourselves that you are helping Indigenous people, the environment, Labor or anyone other than the Coalition.

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