Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

After taking a step forward in ReachTEL, the government takes a step back in the year’s second Essential poll.

The second poll of the year from the now-fortnightly Essential Research series has Labor’s lead widening from 53-47 to 54-46 — the primary votes will be with us later today.

Among the poll’s other findings are that 73% believe the cost of living has increased over the past year, and 75% believe energy prices have done so. Fifty-one per cent believe the cost of living has increased more quickly than their income, 28% that it has stayed even, and only 14% that their income has increased more. Eighty-three per cent thought the government should do more to make health insurance affordable, and 60% believed health insurance wasn’t worth the premiums.

Thirty-two per cent of respondents thought the political and economic system needed to be fundamentally changed, 48% favoured refinement, and only 8% registered satisfaction with the status quo. Questions on which party was best to handle various issues evoked the usual responses, with the Liberals doing better on managing the economy and terrorism, and Labor doing better on climate change and industrial relations (and, less predictably, housing affordability).

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1028.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,702 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Victoria @ #95 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 9:57 am

    I have always generally liked Melbourne weather compared to those north of us. I like the crisp autumn and winter. Spring not so much, and summer even less. But it was never as humid as it has been of late. The oppressive humidity of the past week, has been absolutely crap. I am quite happy for it to find its way back north again!!!

    Weather is such a big part of Melbourne’s style. Tongue in cheek I used to say that Melbourne people dress up to go out, whereas Sydneysiders undress to go out.

  2. Fess

    I should add that the Nunes conduct is so outrageous, that you really gotta ask is it simply to protect Trump and the GOP, or is something else going on.

  3. “jboyded: Surprise #auspol twitter.com/JohnWren1950/s…
    JohnWren1950: My sources tell me there is a #Libspill brewing. 3 contenders; Dutton, Morrison & Abbott. Yesterday Abbott was smeared re blocking dole for under 30s. Today Morrison got the treatment. It’s pretty obvious Dutton is leaking against his rivals. #auspol #dysfunctional”

    The leaks do seem very targeted. Oh yuk. Cash on abc24

  4. My sources tell me there is a #Libspill brewing. 3 contenders; Dutton, Morrison & Abbott.

    It says something about the dearth of talent in the Liberal party at the moment that Peter bloody Dutton seems the best option out of those three.

    Yesterday Abbott was smeared re blocking dole for under 30s. Today Morrison got the treatment. It’s pretty obvious Dutton is leaking against his rivals.

    Given the jewellry revelations that also came out about Bishop late last year, this strikes me as a pretty fair assumption.

  5. C@tmomma @ #96 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 9:59 am

    Here’s a really great description of the whole imbroglio in Melbourne over the past little while, including about why the blackouts occurred, plus a great description of how solar is affecting when blackouts occur and why:

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/power-cuts-in-victoria-as-melbourne-sweats-through-summers-hottest-night/527429

    #weatheronPB and politics 🙂

    The hot nights are the killer.

  6. Weather is such a big part of Melbourne’s style. Tongue in cheek I used to say that Melbourne people dress up to go out, whereas Sydneysiders undress to go out.

    Yeah, I saw a middle-aged lady walk out of Woolies the other day in her bikini. She did have a see through dress on over it though. 🙂

  7. Vic:

    I could be wrong about Nunes, but Republicans are all outrageously behaved when it comes to their own self interests. Even to the point of lying and doing illegal, corrupt stuff.

  8. Unfortunately, as has been shown time and time again, Fair Work Australia is not really all that much better than the dreaded Workchoices.

    Finally, an admission that Labor’s claim it destroyed WorkChoices has been a myth, a myth I have pushed back against on PB for years.

  9. The hot nights are the killer.

    Itza,
    I rationalised having the air con on 21C overnight with the knowledge that the cool weather is on it’s way to Sydney tomorrow. 🙂

  10. Pegasus @ #110 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 10:11 am

    Unfortunately, as has been shown time and time again, Fair Work Australia is not really all that much better than the dreaded Workchoices.

    Finally, an admission that Labor’s claim it destroyed WorkChoices has been a myth, a myth I have pushed back against on PB for years.

    But of course! It’s all Labor’s fault that the Coalition nobbled FWA with hardline IR ideologue appointments! How could I have missed it!?! Thank god we have Pegasus to remind us!
    🙄

  11. Busfire Bill

    ABC News yellow banner –

    “Bushfire out of control and moving west”

    No surprise at first bit but I thought you were planning to go north.

  12. I have always generally liked Melbourne weather compared to those north of us. I like the crisp autumn and winter

    I generally find “crisp” air enjoyable for about ten minutes.

  13. rossmcg

    The town has had just a tick over 400mm since 9am yesterday and it is still raining.

    Time to grab a bar of soap and go outside?

  14. “Take out of the latest poll – “only 8% registered satisfaction with the status quo.”

    That’s an opportunity and a threat.

  15. c@t

    Agreed that It hasn’t helped that FWA is infested with Liberal Luvvies. But if you look at FWA and Workchoices, sadly there is not a great deal of difference. This is coming from someone who dislikes the fiberals with a passion.

  16. Good morning all,

    It appears Bill Shorten will announce a National Integrety Commission will be established if labor wins the next election.

    Cheers.

  17. Well the glorious summer emergence from the chrysalis of the amazing new Trumble that would kick Shorten to the kerb has gone well this year. About as well as the other years.

    FMD our media are a bunch of numpties.

    This looks more like a 53 without doing any calcs. But same old same old. 53/47 or there abouts has been set in stone for a year now. Sadly #libspill is like Nessy sightings, but the fear will get em. It always does. If blackbashing and wrapping himself in the flag and all the other bullshit Trumble has pulled over summer hasn’t shifted the dial the bed wetters will conclude (correctly) that the public has decided he’s not what they want and will look to grasp another straw.

    Won’t help em of course, but it’ll be fun to watch. For the good of the country those scumbags really do need to disintegrate and give Labor a few terms of clear air to set their wrongs to right.

  18. It appears Bill Shorten will announce a National Integrety Commission will be established if labor wins the next election.

    Should have done it last election, but a very very good thing and should help to consolidate some waverers who still buy the same-same nonsense.

  19. The town {Broome} has had just a tick over 400mm since 9am yesterday and it is still raining.

    That’s about two thirds of its average annual rainfall. Broome’s average annual rainfall is a bit less than Melbourne’s, although it’s concentrated in a 3-4 month wet season. It has had about 850mm to date in 2018.

  20. From the Capetown water shortage link posted earlier (forgotten by which poster) –

    Severe water restrictions have limited residents to just 50 litres of water per day. As a point of comparison, the average Sydneysider uses about 295 litres of water each day while Melburnians use 160 litres.

    It’s a big difference.

    Does anyone know why?

  21. Laurence TribeVerified account@tribelaw
    6h6 hours ago
    Rosenstein merely got a RENEWAL of the FISA warrant to eavesdrop on Russian agent Carter Page of Trumplandia. GOP efforts to use this judicial success to smear Rosenstein should backfire, but the political take might be different.

    Will Congress vote to release the memo?

  22. Yes, yet again, Shorten has finally adopted a Greens Party policy.

    2013:
    https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2013/December/The_latest_proposal_for_a_national_integrity_commission

    On 13 November 2013, the Leader of the Australian Greens, Senator Christine Milne, introduced the National Integrity Commission Bill 2013 (NIC Bill). The Australian Greens have long advocated for a national integrity commission to investigate claims of misconduct and corruption across the Federal Parliament and Commonwealth agencies. The NIC Bill is very similar to a Bill introduced by Senator Bob Brown in June 2010 and reintroduced when Parliament reconvened after the August 2010 election, and to the National Integrity Commissioner Bill 2012 introduced by Adam Bandt. Those Bills lapsed without having been debated when the 43rd Parliament was prorogued. This FlagPost provides a brief overview of the NIC Bill and the broader proposal for a national commission of this kind.

  23. guytaur,

    It will be very interesting.

    While Turnbull has been running around over the holidays sticking his head in front of any camera he could find Shorten and labor have been doing the hard yards policy wise for 2018.

    It is great timing by Shorten re the Integrety Commission ( if correct ) or bad timing by Barnaby Joyce given Barnaby was out and about only a day or two ago claiming everything was OK. Just leave it to the senate he reckons.

    Anyway, we shall see what unfolds.

    Cheers.

  24. CTar1 @ #130 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 10:33 am

    From the Capetown water shortage link posted earlier (forgotten by which poster) –

    Severe water restrictions have limited residents to just 50 litres of water per day. As a point of comparison, the average Sydneysider uses about 295 litres of water each day while Melburnians use 160 litres.

    It’s a big difference.

    Does anyone know why?

    Sydneysiders bathe? 🙂

  25. I think posters are reading too much into who leaked the recent documents. As a former bureaucrat is looks to me like someone inside the FIO unit thinking the Govt’s time is limited so let it be decisive.

  26. I should have added the timing is good given the Cash / AWU issue will warm up again and the revelations may not be good for Cash and the government.

    Cheers.

  27. 29 January 2018: https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/trains-strikes-and-the-right-to-break-unjust-laws,11146

    There has never been a legal right to strike in Australia.

    In recent times, both Labor and LNP governments have legislated restrictions on strikes. Paul Keating, for example, gave us Enterprise Bargaining and limited strike capacity to the bargaining period. John Howard gave us the hated Workchoices, built on the philosophy we are all individuals capable of negotiating our own best wages and conditions.

    The Rudd Labor Government’s Fair Work laws were WorkChoices Lite. Among other things, they kept the restrictions on striking, only allowing it in the bargaining period.

    Shorten Labor in power won’t enshrine a general and unqualified right to strike in law.

    As secretary of the South Coast Labour Council Arthur Rorris wrote:

    ‘Federal Labor Shadow Minister Jason Clare was asked twice on ABC 24 on Sunday morning whether he supported the right to strike. He failed to do so. Maybe we should ask all our MPs the same question and publish their responses.’

    There is only one way to change the rules and that is to break them. Sally McManus gave us hope last year when she said workers should break unjust laws.

  28. GOP congressman blasts Republicans for Nunes memo freakout: ‘It isn’t a smoking gun’

    Despite being a proponent of releasing House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes’ (R-CA) memo, one of his GOP colleagues appeared to criticize fellow Republicans and right-wing media for touting its existence.

    “If your audience or somebody is believing this is the end-all smoking gun, it isn’t,” Rep. Mark Walker, a member of the House Oversight Committee, told MSNBC’s Katy Tur on Monday.

    “To make the case that this is the most shocking document in the history of mankind,” Walker said, “I believe that’s a little hyperbole.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/01/gop-congressman-blasts-republicans-nunes-memo-freakout-isnt-smoking-gun/

  29. Pegasus – Lots of onerous things were removed. One was the individual Australian Workplace Agreements (‘AWAs’) as an example.

    The reasonableness of Industrial Relations Systems depend to a very large extent on the government in power at the time.

    If they do what our current government does they’ll use all the resources available to them to delay new agreements coming into force and their aim in negotiating is simply to delay as much as possible and fight any wage rise in every possible way they can.

    You are just doing the ‘rex’ ‘same-same’ line.

  30. Yes Pegasus. Quite. And you would agree that it’s terrific Labor is in a position to take government and actually put good policy into legislation.

  31. Pegasus @ #132 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 10:33 am

    Yes, yet again, Shorten has finally adopted a Green Party policy.

    2013:
    https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2013/December/The_latest_proposal_for_a_national_integrity_commission

    On 13 November 2013, the Leader of the Australian Greens, Senator Christine Milne, introduced the National Integrity Commission Bill 2013 (NIC Bill). The Australian Greens have long advocated for a national integrity commission to investigate claims of misconduct and corruption across the Federal Parliament and Commonwealth agencies. The NIC Bill is very similar to a Bill introduced by Senator Bob Brown in June 2010 and reintroduced when Parliament reconvened after the August 2010 election, and to the National Integrity Commissioner Bill 2012 introduced by Adam Bandt. Those Bills lapsed without having been debated when the 43rd Parliament was prorogued. This FlagPost provides a brief overview of the NIC Bill and the broader proposal for a national commission of this kind.

    Give The Greens an elephant stamp! 😀

    Even though the idea has been around for quite some time, and Labor have been doing the hard implementation yards on it this term. But. You know. If The Greens have thought of it too, it’s betterer! Because. You know. The Greens can’t see it within themselves to be magnanimous and just congratulate Labor. Nope, nope, nope, gotta throw some shade at Labor instead.

  32. farrm51: “Bill Shorten is no anti-corruption warrior,” says PM Turnbull just before OL about to announce backing for a version of a possible federal ICAC

  33. CTar1
    ” Severe water restrictions have limited residents to just 50 litres of water per day. As a point of comparison, the average Sydneysider uses about 295 litres of water each day while Melburnians use 160 litres.
    It’s a big difference.
    Does anyone know why?”

    Melbourne hipsters are really into the ‘If it’s yellow let it mellow’ thing.

  34. C@tmomma @ #83 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    guytaur @ #59 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 9:02 am

    jboyded: Surprise #auspol twitter.com/JohnWren1950/s…
    JohnWren1950: My sources tell me there is a #Libspill brewing. 3 contenders; Dutton, Morrison & Abbott. Yesterday Abbott was smeared re blocking dole for under 30s. Today Morrison got the treatment. It’s pretty obvious Dutton is leaking against his rivals. #auspol #dysfunctional

    Compare the pair:

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    and

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Yep. I can see a future with Der Tuberführer hanging by his heels from a garage gibbet.

  35. People are assuming the leaks are designed to harm. Maybe not. Perhaps they are job applications for when Truffles gets turfed.? You should have read the comments section at the GG re the “starve the under 30s” welfare scheme. Largely two thumbs up there for the plan. Scrott’s kick ‘reffos’ in the guts will surely meet similar approval. So when it comes to wooing the RWers the “leaks” would be enhancing rather than damaging.

  36. rhwombat @ #146 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 10:50 am

    C@tmomma @ #83 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    guytaur @ #59 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 9:02 am

    jboyded: Surprise #auspol twitter.com/JohnWren1950/s…
    JohnWren1950: My sources tell me there is a #Libspill brewing. 3 contenders; Dutton, Morrison & Abbott. Yesterday Abbott was smeared re blocking dole for under 30s. Today Morrison got the treatment. It’s pretty obvious Dutton is leaking against his rivals. #auspol #dysfunctional

    Compare the pair:

    <a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    and

    <a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    Yep. I can see a future with Der Tuberführer hanging by his heels from a garage gibbet.

    God I hope it never gets to that!

    The Uber Tuber as leader of the country, that is. 🙂

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