Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No sign of seasonal goodwill extending to our political leaders, both of whom score declining approval ratings in the first federal poll for the year.

The New Year poll drought has been brought to an end by Essential Research, which will henceforth be conducting fortnightly polls, dispensing with its long establishing practice of polling weekly and publishing two-week rolling averages. As related by The Guardian, the poll has Labor’s lead unchanged on the final poll last year at 53-47 – as usual, primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today. Both leaders’ personal ratings have weakened: Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 45%, Bill Shorten is down four on approval to 32% and up four disapproval to 49%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 42-28 to 42-25.

Other findings: 53% support a tax on sugar-sweetened drinks, with 38% opposed; 44% support and 29% oppose “Australia becoming a republic with an Australian head of state”, which is all but identical to when the same question was asked a year ago (44% and 30%); and society is widely seen as going to pot, with crime perceived as on the rise across all categories, regardless of what the official statistics might say.

UPDATE: The primary votes are Coalition 37% (steady), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady), One Nation 6% (down one). Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,426 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 59 of 69
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  2. Bemused

    Every item purchased will have a range of capabilites and be best suited for certain purposes and it is up to the Defence planners to decide what the mix should be eg hospital ships, emergency relief craft.

    Obviously they all cost and you need to choose just which ones you need most.

    Now that would NOT include aircraft carriers or nuclear attack subs, nor B52s. But as for other stuff well each on it merits but they need to be chosen because they have an important role in DEFENDING or civilian assistance and not be selected for interoperability with US offensive weaponry.

  3. daretotread @ #2900 Sunday, January 21st, 2018 – 10:22 pm

    Bemused
    What are you on about?

    I clearly said I was no expert but there are obviously some armaments that are essentially defensive and some that are offensive. Sure some can do both roles. The point is if you have armed neutrality you put your money where it can be useful.

    I think I actually suggested fighters and mine warfare craft (these are what are used in other heavily defended waters). Probably small armed corvettes/patrol boats anti aircraft and maybe anti ship missiles. But hey I am getting out of my comfort zone, so no wish to be berated about what exactly we should have.

    By the way Player you are a gratuitously insulting person.Given I have never cast any abuse your way (at least not in your incarnation as paid lobbying for the gas industry) you frankly have a bit of a bloody cheek.

    So you are proposing weapons that will only work if used defensively?
    How will a rifle know if it is being used aggressively or defensively?
    Just as an example.

  4. daretotread @ #2902 Sunday, January 21st, 2018 – 10:29 pm

    Bemused

    Every item purchased will have a range of capabilites and be best suited for certain purposes and it is up to the Defence planners to decide what the mix should be eg hospital ships, emergency relief craft.

    Obviously they all cost and you need to choose just which ones you need most.

    Now that would NOT include aircraft carriers or nuclear attack subs, nor B52s. But as for other stuff well each on it merits but they need to be chosen because they have an important role in DEFENDING or civilian assistance and not be selected for interoperability with US offensive weaponry.

    So ignorant it is not worth commenting any further.

  6. Bemused

    Can you help being a pedantic argumentative nuisance? Yes of bloody course there will be weapons of all kinds with different functions.

    However you choose ones that give the greatest DEFENSIVE bang for the buck. I m not going to get into an argument about which ones. That would require in depth knowledge of specs etc.

    I am not even sure what the argument is about. It is simply this. We buy the armaments that stop an enemy invading our territory and spend little or no money on weapons whose MAIN function is to hep us invade other countries.

    What is complex about that?

  9. @porori

    “Signalling the government also remains committed to delivering income tax cuts in 2018, Mr Morrison said 2018 could be a “year of opportunity” for businesses and workers.”

    …. “Open for business”
    Back to sloganeering..

  10. Shellbell,

    “David Attenborough is reporting on some grey kangaroos kicking the shit out of each other on channel one…”

    Yeah…nah…think I’ll Skippy it…

  12. zoidlord @ #2909 Sunday, January 21st, 2018 – 10:43 pm

    @porori

    “Signalling the government also remains committed to delivering income tax cuts in 2018, Mr Morrison said 2018 could be a “year of opportunity” for businesses and workers.”

    …. “Open for business”
    Back to sloganeering..

    Yeah, an opportunity for businesses to increase their profits and shaft their Workers!

  14. Roger Miller says:
    Sunday, January 21, 2018 at 8:13 pm
    Ctatr1
    I don’t think Craig and Vanessa are married. Craig’s behaviour is about power not about sex. “I’m a star and can do what I want, and there is nothing you can do about it.”

    I’d say it is about both. He uses his power to get what he needs to get his rocks off.

  15. daretotread @ #2906 Sunday, January 21st, 2018 – 10:37 pm

    Bemused

    Can you help being a pedantic argumentative nuisance? Yes of bloody course there will be weapons of all kinds with different functions.

    However you choose ones that give the greatest DEFENSIVE bang for the buck. I m not going to get into an argument about which ones. That would require in depth knowledge of specs etc.

    I am not even sure what the argument is about. It is simply this. We buy the armaments that stop an enemy invading our territory and spend little or no money on weapons whose MAIN function is to hep us invade other countries.

    What is complex about that?

    A first step to attempting to invade is to achieve air superiority.
    Using the same type of aircraft which we would use to defend.
    You cannot simply say weapons are offensive or defensive. It depends on how they are used and what they are being used to achieve.

  28. C@tmomma @ #2926 Sunday, January 21st, 2018 – 11:40 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2925 Sunday, January 21st, 2018 – 11:35 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2920 Sunday, January 21st, 2018 – 11:20 pm

    I’m going to eat my hands soon. My nails are all gone!

    The sponsor broadcaster of the event giving you connipiions also promoted Nazi last weekend.

    I have personally boycotted the whole event.

    Yes, but Nick Kyrgios is no Nazi. I was there for him.

    Adolph would be proud of you!

  30. Confessions

    Probably not, she is one I usually skim over. Not smart enough to follow those “he said, she said, yes you did, no I didn’t” debates.

  33. Rossmcg:

    DTT goes all girly squishy over a known authoritarian / dictator.

    daretotread (AnonBlock)
    Sunday, January 21st, 2018 – 4:50 pm
    Comment #2810
    OK OK

    Yes Ido think Putin is pretty hot – brains and braun – what more can a girl ask for.

  35. Rossmcg:

    History as well as the present is littered with women who hitch their wagons to rich, powerful assclowns, assholes, morons, abusive misogynists and authoritarian dictators.

  36. Ross
    Known to whom.

    Mindless people who breathe in the MSN ehter and say ooohhhh! aaahh! gasp!

    If this were a court of law or if I were Morse or Vera or a Poirot I would say where is your evidence – from no biased sources (which means NOT from USA, UK, Canada or Australia.)

    Now as I understand it Putin was elected and there was no evidence of any form of vote tampering (other than that by the USA supporting anti Putin candidates), Anyone with brains of a gnat (probably not you or confessions) will realise that any President or PM who improves the economy, raises the national pride via military adventure, cocks a snoot at the mortal enemy (in this case USA) will be popular. So how can you be deemed a dictator of elected (any more than would Hillary have been if elected).

    Now if you mean does he have an authoritarian personality. Probably but we really do not know. I have no idea whom he listens too or how much he delegates. Do you? I think he certainly is wily and he has a reputation for surprise. I assume (like most Russians he is a good chess player. However once again anyone with the brains of a gadfly will also realise that Putin has had significant military achievements and NO ONE achieves this by being a dictator in the simple way the MSN sheeple think. So we can assume that he takes advice from his military commanders if from few others.

    So is he a dictator. Certainly not in the classical sense.

    Has he murdered anyone? Well there are allegations but there are allegations against Hillary and Bill and if you read British newspapers Hillary’s staff were running a paedophile ring (No I do NOT believe them any more than I believe their comments on Putin).

    There have been allegations that the UK government murdered David Kelly – and there have been a number of mysterious deaths of agents etc.

    The number of US journos who are “accidentally killed” seems rather higher than co-incidence might suggest.

    So the question for me is Are the Russian secret spy agencies any more murderous than their counterparts in US, UK or of course France where we know they did a bit of killing of greenies? I do not know and nor do you, but you will still pontificate and do a girly giggle based on ignorance.

  37. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, January 21, 2018 at 9:05 pm

    The problem for Australia is that the Post WW2 order is crumbling. If not the US, whom? If no-other, what, and how?

    The US remains the overwhelming military power, but this power depends critically on its nuclear capabilities. It’s obvious that these capabilities serve to protect the US from attack, but they are of rather limited value in other respects. They have been actually deployed only twice, in 1945.

    Even though the US – and Russia – have been involved in a large variety of conflicts since 1945, nuclear weapons have never been used. This is not to say they are without efficacy at all. Clearly, as long as protagonists believe there is a credible threat that they could be used, and if this influences the decisions of potential adversaries in ways that diminish threats to those that hold them, then they have a use as a significant dormant force.

    However, nuclear capability alone has not been enough for the US to succeed in asserting its will wherever it chooses. This has been true of Russia too. Conflicts are conducted by non-nuclear means. It’s obvious that these means are sufficient to commence wars, but they are not sufficient to conclude them on terms that favour the belligerents. I think this is because they have forgotten Clausewitz. Wars are about political purposes. They are not about hardware. They start for political reasons and they finish for political reasons too. War is not an end in itself, even though some would have it that way.

    In Australia’s case, this has meant our military policies have been aimed at providing tactical and political support to our strategic ally. Really, we have contracted-out most of our military goal-setting. We are merely a US ensign. As long as the US avoids serious military engagements in this part of the world, or with the regional hegemony, we have little to lose from the alliance with the US. It’s doubtless true that we contribute far more to US security than they do to ours and that we are “valued” by the US in ways that other allies may not b.

    The problems for us will arrive when the US miscalculates in relation to China – that is, in relation to Korea, Taiwan, Japan or the maritime reaches that surround them. There will be increasingly frequent opportunities for such miscalculations, not least because while China is certainly clear about what it wants, the US is uncertain of its interests and….inexorably, uncertain therefore of what it might do to advance them.

    And in the face of US indecision, Russia has resolved to repair its imperialist hold over the Black Sea and Eastern Europe; and is using any kind of device short of outright military conflict to do so.

  38. Confessions

    Are you really a science graduate?

    Yes of course women are attracted to powerful dominant men. It is known as survival of the fittest and is the core concept of Darwinism. Powerful men are more likely to be able to protect the offspring so it is the selfish gene at work. They are also attracted to men with neat bums and strong loins for obvious reasons.

    Are you attracted to limp wristed losers?

    For men of course they can spread it around (biological speaking) so they are more concerned with quantity not quality (again the selfish gene at work).

    There is a REASON that men like big boobs and bums – these are signs of fertility.

    Yes I am a biologist and this is just basic stuff if you are not some wacko believer in creationism. As humans of course it is not just strength that is the aphrodisiac it is brains, skill in socializing and wealth which is a proxy for provider capacity.

    So if you somehow think to insult me by your comment, failed again.

  39. Briefly

    I thought the whole point was that the time HAD arrived or was getting very close.

    The US is actually no longer totally dominant in nuclear or even conventional weapons.For example should conflict break out over NK the combined strength of NK, China and Russia would well exceed that of the USA and her major regional allies (Japan and Australia). I am not at all convinced the US could rely on SK, who may decide to capitulate rather than be the target of aggression from both sides.

    Japan is stirring the pot too and it might well be the trigger for a hot conflict

  40. daretotread @ #2938 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 12:32 am

    Confessions

    Are you really a science graduate?

    Yes of course women are attracted to powerful dominant men. It is known as survival of the fittest and is the core concept of Darwinism. Powerful men are more likely to be able to protect the offspring so it is the selfish gene at work. They are also attracted to men with neat bums and strong loins for obvious reasons.

    Are you attracted to limp wristed losers?

    For men of course they can spread it around (biological speaking) so they are more concerned with quantity not quality (again the selfish gene at work).

    There is a REASON that men like big boobs and bums – these are signs of fertility.

    Yes I am a biologist and this is just basic stuff if you are not some wacko believer in creationism. As humans of course it is not just strength that is the aphrodisiac it is brains, skill in socializing and wealth which is a proxy for provider capacity.

    So if you somehow think to insult me by your comment, failed again.

    daretotread @ #2938 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 12:32 am

    Confessions

    Are you really a science graduate?

    Yes of course women are attracted to powerful dominant men. It is known as survival of the fittest and is the core concept of Darwinism. Powerful men are more likely to be able to protect the offspring so it is the selfish gene at work. They are also attracted to men with neat bums and strong loins for obvious reasons.

    Are you attracted to limp wristed losers?

    For men of course they can spread it around (biological speaking) so they are more concerned with quantity not quality (again the selfish gene at work).

    There is a REASON that men like big boobs and bums – these are signs of fertility.

    Yes I am a biologist and this is just basic stuff if you are not some wacko believer in creationism. As humans of course it is not just strength that is the aphrodisiac it is brains, skill in socializing and wealth which is a proxy for provider capacity.

    So if you somehow think to insult me by your comment, failed again.

    So, do your tits hang high or low?

  41. dtt,

    I would say it’s largely because we live in paternalistic societies where access, for women, to power and privileged are has largely been through their husband.

  43. By the acquisition of nuclear weapons, NK has fortified itself against attack. It has not obtained – and cannot obtain – the resources needed for successful offensive operations. Inasmuch as it is now less likely to be attacked, NK may be more willing to negotiate its way into more normal trading and political relations with its neighbours.I don’t think we can say the US has been strategically weakened and therefore will be very unlikely to respond aggressively. It may feel slighted….but that is a different thing. US defences have not been at all materially altered by technical developments NK. Nor, all boiled down, have US offensive capabilities been altered. From a US military perspective, nothing of much substance has changed.

    All in all, there are fewer chances of conflict on the peninsula now than was formerly the case, despite the bellicose rhetoric from Putin’s lackey in the WH.

  46. @GG 1:24 am:

    Perhaps – but the US Government is currently navel-gazing. In the dark, no less, since they couldn’t agree on even a short-term continuing resolution to fund operations.

    Trump (a proven draft-dodger and coward) is lecturing Senator Tammy Duckworth (a double amputee Iraq veteran and retired Colonel) about the effects of the shutdown on military pay.
    Democrats are offering resolutions to authorize military pay to remove these effects.
    Republicans are blocking these resolutions from even coming to a vote in the Senate.

    It’s a wonderful circus, don’t you agree? Almost as good as today’s Sunrise show bashing welfare!

  47. Matt @ #2946 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 1:56 am

    @GG 1:24 am:

    Perhaps – but the US Government is currently navel-gazing. In the dark, no less, since they couldn’t agree on even a short-term continuing resolution to fund operations.

    Trump (a proven draft-dodger and coward) is lecturing Senator Tammy Duckworth (a double amputee Iraq veteran and retired Colonel) about the effects of the shutdown on military pay.
    Democrats are offering resolutions to authorize military pay to remove these effects.
    Republicans are blocking these resolutions from even coming to a vote in the Senate.

    It’s a wonderful circus, don’t you agree? Almost as good as today’s Sunrise show bashing welfare!

    More blah!

    The military have already executed their coup in the US.

    Trump takes all his directions from military.

    Good or bad is irrelevant. It just is!

  48. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Greg Jericho writes that when your objective is to provide an internet service that’s good enough just to download Netflix, there will be problems.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/jan/21/the-main-problem-with-the-nbn-lies-within-the-governments-intent
    Urban Wronski takes us through the looking glass with Trump and Barnaby.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2018/01/21/through-the-looking-glass-with-trump-and-barnaby/
    Historian Jonathan King explains why our destiny requires another date to celebrate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/australia-day-why-our-destiny-requires-another-date-to-celebrate-20180118-h0k8vm.html
    Adam Gartrell tells us how political donations do buy access and influence.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/now-everyone-admits-it-political-donations-buy-access-and-influence-20180118-h0k4if.html
    Parliament’s Joint Committee of Public Accounts and Audit has ordered an inquiry into consultancy spending after seeing the findings of a first-of-its-kind analysis of government procurement contracts by the Australian National Audit Office.
    /business/accounting/mps-alarmed-at-government-consultancy-spending-20180119-h0kvqz
    Labor is concerned about lengthy employer lockouts of workforces and the use of labour hire to pay workers less for doing the same work. Brendan O’Connor says Labor would not tolerate it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/21/labor-says-use-of-lockouts-and-labour-hire-to-undercut-wages-wont-be-tolerated
    Prince William shows Trump how it’s done.
    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/celebrity/prince-william-balding-middleaged-man-has-shaved-his-head-20180118-h0kppd.html
    The Turnbull government will ramp up its campaign for deeper company tax cuts over the coming weeks as it seeks to convince the Senate that following Donald Trump’s economic lead will help extend Australia’s record-breaking run of job creation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrison-ramps-up-rhetoric-on-company-tax-cuts-amid-jobs-bonanza-20180121-h0lq1z.html
    Richo says that America’s political mess shows that the Australian democracy we too often deride for its faults is probably the world’s best. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/graham-richardson/washingtons-woes-highlight-strengths-of-australian-democracy/news-story/17bb8a5247df51f72cb82bc59ff6543b
    Nicole Hemmer explains how US politics changed forever with the Clinton/Lewinsky scandal.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/american-politics-came-of-age-with-monica-lewinsky-20180119-h0l4i9.html
    Pauline Hanson will ask the Senate to refer Fraser Anning to the High Court in a bid to retain his seat for One Nation. Google.
    /national-affairs/pauline-hansons-bitter-struggle-to-retain-one-nation-senate-seat/news-story/50b216ebc0ee289dd446165f1fcf7722
    Amazon has opened its checkout-free grocery store to the public on Monday after more than a year of testing, moving forward on an experiment that could change bricks-and-mortar retail forever.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/the-future-of-grocery-shopping-amazons-checkoutfree-store-opens-to-the-public-20180121-h0lwr9.html
    The rise of populism in Australia could be traced back to the decline of the major political parties and the social and religious institutions that supported them, according to Australian National University political scientist Paul Kenny. Google.
    /news/policy/fall-of-unions-churches-to-blame-for-rising-populism-20180119-h0ktg6
    Last year saw the largest increase in the number of billionaires, and their wealth, since the start of this century, widening the gap between Australia’s richest and the rest of the nation.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-sees-massive-leap-in-billionaires-20180121-p4yyof.html
    This professor of pharmacology tells us why codeine is going prescription-only and why it’s a bad idea.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-codeine-is-going-prescriptiononly-and-why-its-a-bad-idea-20180119-h0kyve.html
    Josh Frydenberg is facing a party room showdown over his support for electric vehicles in Australia. Google.
    /national-affairs/electric-car-plans-spark-showdown/news-story/e7f060f5b2a4371a4e0b202a5c61ab06
    Meanwhile the Whyalla steelworks saviour now wants to revive vehicle manufacturing in South Australia by building electric cars at the former Holden site. Google.
    /news/south-australia/whyalla-steelworks-owner-sanjeev-gupta-wants-to-make-electric-cars-in-adelaide-using-holden-equipment/news-story/38b714c81ebfcda49cefc23f89e19f0b
    The young are badly misunderstood and misrepresented by the mainstream media and politicians, writes Caitlin Mary Neate.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/millennials-the-mainstream-medias-punching-bag,11122
    Carolyn Page says that the campaign by Family Planning Victoria for pleasure to be included as part of adolescent sex education should be welcomed as a push to foster one of the most positive aspects of sexual relationships. Come on down RWNJs!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/remembering-sex-ed-at-school-makes-me-shudder-we-can-do-better-20180118-h0k5v6.html
    According to the Washington Post Trump made 2140 false or misleading claims in his first year.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/president-trump-made-2140-false-or-misleading-claims-in-his-first-year-20180121-h0lpm6.html
    Australians are borrowing billions to buy cars.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/01/21/car-loan-billions-revealed/The corporate watchdog is set to unleash hundreds of undercover shoppers on Australia’s mortgage brokers. Google.
    /business/financial-services/asic-secret-shoppers-to-probe-mortgage-brokers/news-story/c64039ff167a82e91a0ed5f565ff1be8
    US investors are not particularly concerned over the government shutdown – provided it doesn’t last too long.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/for-investors-used-to-histrionics-shutdown-is-one-more-sideshow-20180121-p4yyol.html
    Honda Australia has turned to social media to find some 80,000 customers still driving with potentially deadly airbags – nine years after its recall began.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/honda-turns-to-facebook-in-bid-to-recall-potentially-deadly-takata-airbags-20180120-h0lflk.html
    Jess Irvine unveils the 12 top economic buzzwords for 2018.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/perfect-your-australia-day-barbecue-banter-with-these-top-12-economic-buzzwords-for-2018-20180119-h0lf3c.html
    Investors, regulators and litigation lawyers are all circling, ramping up their scrutiny on how companies are planning for climate change, how they are trying to tackle it, and what information they are releasing about the risks it poses to their operations.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/theres-nowhere-to-hide-companies-warned-on-climate-risks-20180112-h0hljq.html
    Retired urban planner and senior manager of Sydney’s rail system, Dr Dick Day, posits that Sydney’s new Metro may prove more a triumph of technocratic evangelism and private sector opportunism than a carefully grafted enhancement to a complex system.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/sydney-transport-planners-off-the-rails-with-metro-plans-20180119-h0l2k1.html
    Snakebite, the silent killer that comes with poverty.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/snakebite-the-silent-killer-that-comes-with-poverty-20180119-h0l4d5.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe goes just that bit further again!

    Matt Golding has Turnbull rehearsing for Australia Day celebrations,

    A few more from Golding.



    Jim Pavlidis and an Aussie Day BBQ,

    A good one on Australia Day from Andrew Dyson.

    This looks like Nicholson’s work.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/5119a2b52f65e31ac03f45a9870e3e0c

  50. As for Australia day, I am indifferent about the date or moving it. I’d rather see a genuine treaty recognising Aboriginal land rights, or improving their health, than more symbolic gestures like shifting the date.

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