New year news (week two)

A bunch of state polling, particularly from Victoria, and two items of preselection news.

Another random assortment of polling and preselection news to tide us over until the federal polling season resumes:

• Essential Research has broken the poll drought to the extent of releasing state voting intention results, compiled from the polling it conducted between October and December. The results find Labor ahead in all five states, with Tasmania not covered. This includes a breakthrough 51-49 lead in New South Wales, after they were slightly behind in each quarterly poll going back to April-June 2016; a 51-49 lead in Victoria, after they led either 52-48 or 53-47 going back to October-December 2015; a 52-48 lead in Queensland, from primary vote results well in line with the state election held during the period; and a new peak of 57-43 in Western Australia. In South Australia, Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary vote numbers which are, typically for Essential Research, less good for Nick Xenophon’s SA Best than Newspoll/Galaxy: Labor 34%, Liberal 31%, SA Best 22%.

• The Age has ReachTEL polls of two Victorian state seats conducted on Friday, prompted by the current hot button issue in the state’s politics, namely “crime and anti-social behaviour”. The poll targeted two Labor-held seats at the opposite ends of outer Melbourne, one safe (Tarneit in the west, margin 14.6%), the other marginal (Cranbourne in the south-east, margin 2.3%). After excluding the higher-than-usual undecided (14.5% in Cranbourne, 15.5% in Tarneit), the primary votes in Cranbourne are Labor 40% (down from 43.4% at the last election), Liberal 40% (down from 41.3%) and Greens 7% (up from 4.2%); in Tarneit, Labor 43% (down from 46.8%), Liberal 36% (up from 26.4%), Greens 10% (up from 9.0%). Substantial majorities in both electorates consider youth crime a worsening problem, believe “the main issues with youth crime concern gangs of African origin”, and rate that they are, indeed, less likely to go out at night than they were twelve months ago. The bad news for the Liberals is that very strong majorities in both seats (74.6-25.4 in Tarneit, 66.5-33.5) feel Daniel Andrews would be more effective than Matthew Guy at dealing with the issue.

• Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports on the latest flare-up in an ongoing feud between Ian Goodenough, member for the safe Liberal seat of Moore in Perth’s northern suburbs, and party player Simon Ehrenfeld, whose preselection for the corresponding state seat of Hillarys before the last state election was overturned by the party’s state council. The report includes intimations that Goodenough may have a fight of his own in the preselection for the next election, with those ubiquitous “party sources” rating him a “waste of a safe seat“, particularly in light of Christian Porter’s dangerous position in Pearce.

• Not long after Andrew Bartlett replaced Larissa Waters as a Queensland Greens Senator following the latter’s Section 44-related disqualification, the two are set to go head-to-head for preselection at the next election. Sonia Kohlbacher of AAP reports that Ben Pennings, “anti-Adani advocate and former party employee”, has also nominated, although he’s presumably a long shot. The ballot of party members will begin on February 16, with the result to be announced on March 26.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “New year news (week two)”

Comments Page 23 of 45
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  1. Cat and Vic

    Now a days a lot of people are not getting driving tests as they anticipate automatic cars coming.

    I know its still the minority but it is an increasing segment of the population to the point the media has been talking about it.

    So even at the worst and a total failure to pass the test they can claim to be hip with it futurists 🙂

  3. lenoretaylor: Great Barrier Reef tourism spokesman attacks scientist over slump in visitors, says govt should stop funding the science theguardian.com/environment/20…

    Wow way to fix your tourism Not.

  4. I always thought that the Turnbull Government would try to create a ‘Tampa’ style ‘crisis’. ‘African Gangs’ looks like a trial run. There aren’t that many Africans in australia so he’ll probably need t o extend it to other groups.

  5. Guytaur

    i don’t know what the rules are in NSW, but here in Victoria, young people have to accumulate 120 hours of driving which includes a component of night driving, before being able to do a licence test.

    this requirement changes when someone turns 21 years old. From recollection, The requirement is then 20 hours of driving.
    That is the noticeable difference I have observed. Some don’t have time or means to do 120 hours of driving, so they wait till they are a bit older.

    Usually as most are students until that time, they take public transport to school etc and uber when they go out. So for everything else, they rely on the taxi service of mum and dad.

  6. Steve

    Thats why the ALP should be running the racism dog whistling is doing the terrorists job for them line.

    Exclusion is the friend of the terror recruiter.

    That and saying the LNP really are joined with Trump at the hip.

  7. guytaur @ #1097 Saturday, January 13th, 2018 – 9:12 am

    Ita

    Governments wanting electric cars to work would first do charging stations in high population areas and high traffic routes between cities.

    Unlike with internet landline use its like mobiles. IT the numbers of units sold to the public that counts. So get the cities and major towns covered first.

    Thus in NSW Sydney should get charging stations first followed by Newcastle and Wollongong and the highways along the way.. Then you work out the rollout to other areas.

    Most cars do not go outside of thees areas. Same in other states.
    Eventually all will have electric cars and charging stations. This is how it worked with cars replacing the horse and cart. The rich in cities and major regional areas had cars. The country areas came later.

    Not too much later but later.

    Expecting anything from our luddite Feds is optimistic.

    Tesla have their superchargers rolling out. The list is here.

    Interestingly, the hotel we stayed at in Melbourne recently had two chargers in the car park.

    And the NRMA are stepping up to the mark

  8. Morning all.

    Of course Fox News goes its hardest to defend Trump after his comments. They should change their name to Dear Leader News.

    Tucker Carlson’s strategy was to suggest that Trump was simply saying what everyone was thinking — once he changed what Trump was saying.

    “Today, as you doubtless heard, during immigration talks,” he said, “President Trump said something that almost every single person in America actually agrees with — an awful lot of immigrants come to this country from other places that aren’t very nice.”

    This is not what Trump said, of course. In his statement last year, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un didn’t say, “I have real questions about President Trump’s stability but expect to emerge victorious in our debate.” He said, “I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged U.S. dotard with fire.” There are important differences between those two things and framing one as the other is disingenuous.

    On Fox’s “The Five,” host Jesse Watters took a different tack.

    “This is how the forgotten men and women of America talk at the bar,” he said. “If you’re at a bar, and you’re in Wisconsin, and you think they’re bringing in a bunch of Haiti people, or El Salvadorians, or people from Niger, this is how some people talk. Is it graceful? No. Is it polite or delicate? Absolutely not. Is it a little offensive? Of course it is.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/01/12/trump-loyalists-rush-to-defend-the-indefensible-and-get-left-holding-the-bag/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trumployalists-1115am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.b3b8117d04f7

  9. Meanwhile Trump continues to bring so many into his alternate reality.
    Or down the rabbit hole so to speak.
    He is the master of distraction and so many fall for it every single time.
    Trump will say and do whatever he thinks will get everyone to where he wants them to be.

  10. Itza

    No surprises with that Tesla list. Rich people own Tesla cars. Those locations reflect that fact.

    No surprises hotels have charging stations either.

    What is surprising is the Petroleum companies not having charging stations at their locations. They are losing market share. Very short sighted of them. I know internationally some of those companies have moved to install charging stations at their stops.

    Local executives are not seeing what is happening.

    The government role is not to install the charging stations but to make it financially attractive for private companies to install the charging stations.

    From your home to the the charging station. For starters the Federal Government should like electricity plugs adopt a nationwide standard.

    That way car manufacturers and people setting up charging stations will know what to install.

  12. lenoretaylor: Great Barrier Reef tourism spokesman attacks scientist over slump in visitors, says govt should stop funding the science theguardian.com/environment/20…

    I have come across two types of tourism operators:

    – those who are essentially bullsh*t artists and are chiefly concerned with providing as little as possible for the money paid. Their motto is “fleece the suckers”.

    – those who genuinely want to show visitors what is there, warts and all. The Guardian story mentions Intrepid Travel which says the scientific findings have not impacted bookings (that company promotes travel to many places not always regarded as glamorous).

  13. This is from the Wall Street Journal – again, hardly a sensationalist rag ( only partially available due to subscription ) – I guess the story is as truthful as Trumps honesty …

    Trump Lawyer Arranged $130,000 Payment for Adult-Film Star’s Silence

    Agreement just before election required woman to keep quiet about an alleged sexual encounter with Trump in 2006, people familiar with the matter say

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-lawyer-arranged-130-000-payment-for-adult-film-stars-silence-1515787678?tesla=y&mod=e2tw

    MORE on this particular story can be read here

    http://www.rawstory.com/2018/01/trump-lawyer-shilled-out-130000-to-adult-film-star-in-2016-to-keep-her-quiet-about-alleged-affair-report/

  14. Gee, I wonder what happened in 2013 to cause this ? ?

    Environmental and economic vandalism courtesy of the Abbott/Turnbull Liberal party.

  15. Steve777 @ #1104 Saturday, January 13th, 2018 – 9:20 am

    There aren’t that many Africans in australia so he’ll probably need t o extend it to other groups.

    On the contrary – that’s precisely why it will work so well. Many people – especially in rural and regional areas – will never have even met a black African. So they can ramp up the fear factor as much as they like, with no electoral backlash.

  17. Re charging stations at service stations

    The most expensive part of a service stations infrastructure is the forecourt so service stations unlikely to install charging stations until more people drive electric cars. Although on Geelong Road the bottleneck is the very slow internet connection to CommBank.

    Do motorists pay to recharge their cars now? How long does it take?

  18. JohnWren1950: BREAKING: Actor Russell Crowe has turned down a role playing the lead part in a new Peter Dutton biopic. He stated “as a method actor, playing Hando in Romper Stomper played hell with my psyche. I couldn’t debase myself any further to play Dutton” #auspol pic.twitter.com/Ak1ZYUtfWb

  19. John Schindler‏Verified account@20committee

    Do you remember when POTUS news didn’t focus on calling continents a shithole & secret hush-payouts to porn stars? Those were good times.

  20. Billie

    The biggest obstacle in the way in Australia is the lack of a standard. All the charging stations built so far are proprietary and thus lock you in with the manufacturer according to what plug you need.

    The lack of vision by Australian Petrol service stations becoming electric charging stations is exactly this. They are not lobbying the Federal Government for standardisation.

    I don’t know any country that has brought in a standard as yet. However its going to happen very soon. Just as it did with petrol. Service stations and competition for cars did not become a mass product until that standard was introduced.

  22. Victoria

    I note the spin that if it hadn’t been for the “shithole” comment Trump was going to receive universal acclamation for achieving what no other President ever had on Immigration.

    What? By proposing a wall the Mexicans will pay for? Not going to happen. Getting Republicans and Democrats into the one meeting? I guess that has been done before.

    Tinkering with the lottery programme? Big deal. It has always been a bit controversial and is not hard to rejig the numbers. It is a small program to make up for perceived imbalances in country intakes. Otherwise migration – green card- is very much merit based.

  23. vic,
    In NSW the kids have to do 120 hours until they are 25, when they have to do a reduced amount, I think 50 hours. Says something about what the authorities think about immature brains. 😉

    Also, in the 120 hours there has to be 20 hours of night driving, 10 hours of driving in the rain, country driving, freeway driving and a lot of other KPIs that need to be ticked off. All before you can sit the test!

    The older son, 24 this year, can’t be bothered with the 120 hours, so he is just going to sit it out for another year. 🙂

  25. The timing of the Trump profanity revealing his racism is fantastic.

    Its a black swan for the LNP.

    Their racist dog whistling is now directly comparable to being joined at the hip with Trump.

  26. Cat

    If you do make sure he researches which car company complies with the standard in his area.

    It would be a problem if he had to charge the car in Brisbane 🙂

  27. Remind me again Clinton haters how Trump was the lesser of two evils.

    When doing things he shouldn’t, Donald Trump is a hyperactive president. He blurts high secrets to Russian visitors. He fired the FBI director who investigated things Mr. Trump wished to hush up. Mr. Trump spreads disinformation, tweets abuse and hurls paper towels at Puerto Ricans like a dog owner dispensing treats. From the actual work of the American presidency, however, Mr. Trump’s disengagement is extreme.

    Mr. Trump is not merely shirking work, although he is. He is wrecking the systems that enable presidents to work effectively. The United States government agglomerates giant bureaucracies, each with its distinct mission and culture, often riven by generations of mistrust.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/david-frum-how-donald-trump-turned-the-united-states-into-a-headless-giant/article37588493/

  29. Phoenix

    Do recall when there were large posters on the way to the airports likening Bush to a chimp and implying he was a moron? Remember the book about goats?

    How quickly we all forget.

    What about the reality that Reagan had moderate dementia in his second term?

    It seems to me that respect for the US President which seemed to be the norm until Clinton (when the Lewinski stuff happened) is now a thing of the past.

    Ask yourself how it is that the Republicans have selected in order reagan (a geriatric media celebrity,albeit with some governing experience), a CIA/FBI insider and backroom man, Bush the younger – a moron with connections, MCain another geriatric who has so little support that he was able with impunity to select a certifiable loon as his running mate, Romney who is sane but never had a chance against Obama and now finally Trump a geriatric impulsive, sleazebag with minimal self control. Now it is not as if the alternatives against Trump were any better. Cruz – ye gods! Sanderson ye gods, Jeb (another nepotism candidate), Rubio pretty bloody wacky, that wacky tea party lady – ye gods!

    Do you not think that this history over the last 30 years is telling us something. At least one of the two major parties in the US is not fit for purpose. The other is not much trusted or liked.

  30. Back from the stable Barney

    Confessions if I actually thought you could read more than a 40 character tweet I would spend time repeating my rationale which I have many times. Since you show no signs of being able to read or comprehend what I write sufficiently to be able to counter my arguments with anything other than bile and platitudes I will not waste time repeating it.

    Suffice it to say that I have NOT changed my mind, but will acknowledge that Trump no longer seems to be in control of anything so any significant differences between Clinton and Trump have largely been eroded away. The US military runs the show as it has since Kennedy was assassinated, but Trump has now made the world aware of it.

  32. Can one of the NSW PBs please inform me why the NSW Liberal government is planning to close the Epping to Chatswood railway line. Also, what are they going to replace it with? Sounds like a retrograde step to me without knowing all the ins and outs of it.

  33. Guytaur I wasn’t aware that different electric vehicles use different charging protocols

    However a big hurdle is, how long does it take to recharge a car. It takes about 5 minutes to refuel a petrol car now – that’s no excuse for not adopting electric cars – just a hurdle to be overcome

  36. TheAusInstitute: NSW’s brand new Tallawarra gas plant broken down yet again, sudden loss of 394 MW. Second time this month. Also failed in Feb 2017 heatwave. You just cant rely on gas. #gasandcoalwatch #auspol #energy pic.twitter.com/Ecu3Zw5d5j

  38. guytaur @ #1135 Saturday, January 13th, 2018 – 10:35 am

    Yes thats another hurdle which is why fast charging is advertised and the idea of battery swaps is also being given a run.

    guytaur, Musk (and he’s the front runner in this) seems to be pretty quickly dropping the idea of battery swaps because of the superiority of the supercharging network.

    It’s just, people don’t care about pack swap. The Superchargers are fast enough that if you’re driving from LA to San Francisco, and you start a trip at 9 AM, by the time you get to, say, noon, you want to stop, and you want to stretch your legs, hit the restroom, grab a bite to eat, grab a coffee, and be on your way, and by that time, the car is charged and ready to go, and it’s free. So, it’s like, why would you do the pack swap? It doesn’t make much sense.

    We built the pack swap into the car because we weren’t sure if people would want to choose the pack swap or not. We thought people would prefer Supercharging, but we weren’t sure, so that’s why we built the pack swap capability in. And, you know, based on what we’re seeing here, it’s unlikely to be something that’s worth expanding in the future, unless something changes.

    http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/news/a25872/elon-musk-tesla-battery-swap/

    re ‘electric cars are for rich people’ – that’a also something Musk wants to address, whether ideological or pragmatic business principles, whatever else he knows the market place. The Tesla Model 3 comes off the production line for US$35K. What’s a rich man’s car is moot.

  39. dtt

    I think investing in cart horses may be wise.

    A even OK one more expensive than a reasonable 2nd hand car.

    You should google some prices.

  41. Itza

    I am all for what Musk is trying to do. Like with the SA battery he is doing pioneer work.
    Could be the Apple of electric cars.

    I think fast charging will win eventually. Its how fast it happens that is in question.
    However my point was only that the hurdle was real and being addressed.

    So to me its good news. I would just like a standard introduced now so competition can really happen.

    http://www.eurelectric.org/EVDeclaration/Declaration.html

  42. bemused @ #1134 Saturday, January 13th, 2018 – 6:42 am

    lizzie @ #1064 Saturday, January 13th, 2018 – 7:17 am

    C@t

    Very bad luck. A lesson learned about assuming another driver will behave well, perhaps?

    The only safe assumption is that every other driver on the road is an idiot and always be prepared for them to do something stupid.

    That’s definitely the first rule up here.

    The other one is if something/one surprises you you’re going too fast.

    Now days, I think nothing of someone veering towards me from the other side of the road.

    It’s no wonder road fatalities are so high here, this is becoming a bigger problem as roads improve people are able to travel faster and so injuries from accidents are worse.

    Despite this they still ride the same way.

    They’ll recognise their stupidity one day!!! 🙂

  43. guytaur @ #1140 Saturday, January 13th, 2018 – 6:55 am

    Itza

    I am all for what Musk is trying to do. Like with the SA battery he is doing pioneer work.
    Could be the Apple of electric cars.

    I think fast charging will win eventually. Its how fast it happens that is in question.
    However my point was only that the hurdle was real and being addressed.

    So to me its good news. I would just like a standard introduced now so competition can really happen.

    http://www.eurelectric.org/EVDeclaration/Declaration.html

    Fast charging is only really an issue on long distance trips where you should be taking regular breaks for safety reasons, so as long as they can get it down to 15 – 30 minutes this shouldn’t be an issue.

  44. Ctari

    I do hope you can detect when I am tongue in cheek. Obviously not.

    However being realistic for a moment, like it or not the price of ALL imports will go up if we cannot redress our trade imbalance.This will happen via the exchange rate but it will still put up the prices of EVERY import, of which of course cars will be for most ordinary consumers the major expenditure item.

    Yes second hand cars will find a market but the relative price will still go up.

    Now do I think Australian exports are likely to increase to compensate for the loss of our manufacturing industry.

    i am not very optimistic. Only a fool would believe that we can have someone like Concerta running off at the mouth without some form of Chinese pay back. Ditto the Dastyari stuff , not to mention of course the biggie the whole south China sea stuff. Of course the most obvious sector to hit will be education which is now pretty much our second biggest earner of export dollars.

    China is developing alternative sources of supply for ALL raw materials and food stuffs so I just do not see them staying our long term major export destination. The issue for Australia is then who will emerge to take their place. India is the only realistic option, but even there the poverty will remain severe for a very long time and it probably will not merge as a major destination for Australian exports. Perhaps the UK will increase trade especially for iron ore but it is pretty small bikkies.

    PS for what it is worth I am very interested in hearing alternative RATIONAL views ie what possible new export industries/destinations might be. Not pie in the sky please.

  46. Yesterday (?) I read that Shorten wants to upgrade the NBN in regions before cities. This seems to be similar to their original decision to go regional first.

    Wouldn’t it be more economical/effective to upgrade large centres/cities first this time around? They’d get more PR much quicker and they’re going to need it as the costs mount.

  47. Now days, I think nothing of someone veering towards me from the other side of the road.

    Yeah, I once had an elderly gentleman mistake the run-off to turn lane for a merge into traffic lane and so he came straight at me! Just as well he had is wife in the car who made him stop asap!

  48. Itza

    The good old fashioned road services of NRMA getting into charging stations surprised me.

    I hope they make a success of it.

    On –

    The Superchargers are fast enough that if you’re driving from LA to San Francisco, and you start a trip at 9 AM, by the time you get to, say, noon, you want to stop, and you want to stretch your legs, hit the restroom, grab a bite to eat, grab a coffee, and be on your way, and by that time, the car is charged and ready to go …

    They don’t suggest a time range. Do you have any idea on it?

  50. lizzie,
    Haven’t a lot of large telcos already been supplying FTTP in the city because it is more economical and a good selling point for their service?

    Anyway, Bill knows that the next election will be won and done in the Regions. 🙂

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