BludgerTrack: 54.1-45.9 to Labor

A quiet week for national polling leaves Malcolm Turnbull looking a little bit better on personal approval, but a little bit worse on voting intention.

In a week where only Essential Research reported a national voting intention result, BludgerTrack records a tick to Labor – although it’s actually due to me finally being able to add last fortnight’s ReachTEL to the mix, for which I hadn’t previously been able to get full primary vote numbers, and which was actually a bit of a shocker for the Coalition by the pollster’s standards. As for the state breakdowns, all I can really offer at the moment is apologies for how screwy the Queensland numbers are looking. Whether because of state election static, or simply a freakish accumlation of outliers over a very short period, six of the last seven results I have from Queensland have the Coalition primary vote at 30% or below, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election. It will be interesting to see what we get from the Newspoll quarterly aggregation, which should be along in a week or two. Essential had its montly leadership ratings this week, which have givenn Malcolm Turnbull a bit of a lift. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

768 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.1-45.9 to Labor”

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  1. steve

    shorten and labor have been using that argument – not to change – since shorten stagemanaged his undeserved win as leader —- question is why does he think he is right person. self before party and country? (i know other leaders commit same folly but times in country are urgent)

  3. There’s no messiah waiting in the wings, no Whitlam, Hawke or even a Kevin07. Bill Shorten has been an effective opposition leader. The Labor PM in 2018 or 2019 is Bill or no one.

  4. “Great! So we reverse the onus of proof.
    A complete denial of natural justice.”

    I think you are dealing with a complex social issue with a very simplistic and inappropriate boolean analytic framework. But even you should have noticed that natural justice is delivering rape and perhaps as a society, our ‘natural justice’ shouldn’t be delivering rape to kids and women.

  5. WeWantPaul @ #387 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 3:42 pm

    “The day that men can say that they have been unfairly accused at the same rate as women are harassed is the day we can consider false accusations a real problem. Until then, we should give those stating they’ve been harassed or assaulted the benefit of the doubt, because they are the ones who are statistically and logically speaking most likely to be telling the truth.”

    Very nicely put, but the old privileged white guys with no self-awareness club are unlikely to embrace those facts, they will bring their own.

    Oh yeah, lets do away with the facts of individual cases and just convict some arbitrary percentage.
    I mean, what’s guilt or innocence got to do with it? Just need to satisfy the statistics.

  10. geoffrey:

    since shorten stagemanaged his undeserved win as leader

    WTF? How on earth was Shorten’s victory undeserved? He won fair and square under the Rudd leadership rules. And would have won by an even larger margin under the rules Labor had pre-2013.

    question is why does he think he is right person.

    Maybe, because the party elected him leader? And haven’t moved to replace him yet?

    Oh, and because the polls show him winning in a landslide?

    That dastardly Shorten, forcing the Labor party to keep him on as leader! If only they hd some way to get rid of him. I mean, it’s not like the the party has any sort of mechanic for replacing leaders. Shorten is leader until he resigns or dies. That’s how it works, right?

  14. “I agree completely. Under the circumstances – a dysfunctional government that is deeply unpopular – a 5% swing is a mediocre performance from the Opposition. KK did a forceful, articulate job, but unfortunately she is dragged down by a Labor Party that remains unimaginative and timid, too lacking in macroeconomic understanding to demolish neoliberal dogma, and hampered by a leader who lacks charisma.”

    Oh yeah Bill Shorten really caught up in the neo-liberal dogma worked for the union movement, opposes scraping penalty rates, wants to scrap negative gearing.

    The other thing is the Greens criteria for selecting quality leaders is based solely on appealing to inner city, tertiary educated, progressives. The fact that elections are won and lost in outer suburbs and inner regions I’m not sure Labor will be too concerned by your criticism.

  16. Thanks Bludgers for the update to my knowledge of the Shoppies union. It looks like I will be revising my opinion. Maybe they are not the social troglodytes as I thought of them.

  17. And from the planet of faulty logic, Miranda Devine:

    WHOLE poems used to be written in praise of women’s beauty. But feminism cured all that.

    Woe betide any man today who dares compliment a women for her physical characteristics. Best he render himself deaf, dumb and blind to the attractions of the opposite sex, than be labelled a sexual harasser.

    Chivalry is not dead. It’s been criminalised.

    We see the consequences now, as woman after woman recounts her suffering at the hands of predatory pigs like Harvey Weinstein. But rather than demonising all men, or retreating to a new prudery, we need to understand the role that feminism has played in empowering the Weinsteins of our pornified world.

    By destroying social norms of chivalry and modesty, which were set up to protect women, it has given licence to outlier men to take what they want from what they have been assured is a no-strings-attached sexual smorgasbord.

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/rendezview/chivalry-isnt-dead-its-been-criminalised/news-story/5aff45d60c162dda3b94eef80acd8401

    Feminism is to blame for assholes who can’t treat women with the professionalism and respect they deserve when going about their employment. And women had worse deals from Miranda’s glory society days when chivalry ruled for a whole range of other reasons, mostly because the abuse they experienced was kept hidden at home from which there was little chance of escape.

  18. Sara‏ @_sara_jade_ · 4m4 minutes ago

    Two old cowboys who think they need to put their macho on display like those old 1950’s movie gun toting cowboys . Thumbs in belt or pockets, fingers point to and frame the genitals (check me out). Dominance ‘display’. ‘We’re virile ladies.’ Deluded more like it! Grow up!

  19. @Politcal night watchman

    Cutting Penalty Rates has hurt retail sales.

    Neg gearing has hurt housing affordability.

    LNP killed NBN and stacked Telstra executives and building conflict of interest Fraudband.

  20. ANTONBRUCKNER11 @ #201 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 9:20 am

    I suspect that Turnbull’s China bashing didn’t go down well with those of Chinese origin in the electorate but went down a treat elsewhere. I also suspect that Malcolm will pull it out for the next election, while screaming he’s innocent and has a Chinese grand-daughter. He really is a very dangerous man.

    Turnbull is a particularly stark example of the observation that power doesn’t corrupt so much as it reveals a person’s underlying principles and character, or lack of them.

    C@tmomma @ #242 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 10:20 am

    * You also fail to mention this occurred while she was Premier:

    Keneally pushed to renew the Labor Party, with 23 members of the 50 caucus members retiring. Her push also included the resignation of the NSW Labor President, Bernie Riordan and retirements of Labor powerbrokers, Joe Tripodi and Eddie Obeid.

    Not to mention giving evidence against them at ICAC, for which, yes, they will be prosecuted next year. Crimes which have nothing to do with her, otherwise she would be being prosecuted as well.

    Not unreasonable prospect that KK will come out of it looking okay. If so, then the timing of the case may well suit Labor, depending on the timing of the election of course.

    That said, I am not generally a fan of celebrity-style candidates nor recycling past leaders.

    Bonza @ #386 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 2:12 pm

    Do people think that Shorten is unpopular in some unique way compared to Abbott?

    Or Howard before he became PM, and often after he had too. Clearly neither charisma nor personal popularity is critical. Helpful? Certainly, but not critical.

    Shorten’s position is, and quite rightly should be, safe while Labor continues to enjoy a solid election-winning lead in the polls. Unlike Hawke in 1983, and like Whitlam in 1972, Shorten has done the hard organisational and policy yards in opposition to get his party into a clear winning position.

    Also of the view that Labor are holding their fire for now on some big stuff, and I am expecting them to pull some serious sweeteners out of the campaign hat at the appropriate moment. Such as fully supporting a proper federal ICAC and donation reform. They would be mad not to, as that alone could seal the deal for them.

    As I have said all along, the substantial political brownie points up for grabs on those two issues will go to the first of the two major parties to fully support them.

  21. “steve
    shorten and labor have been using that argument – not to change – since shorten stagemanaged his undeserved win as leader —- question is why does he think he is right person. self before party and country? (i know other leaders commit same folly but times in country are urgent)”

    Geoffery Labor has not had a federal leader contest back to back elections since 2001. You know what is urgent to the public and the country after the revolving door of Prime Minsters?

    Stability.

  22. “The Greens just took a Liberal Seat in Qld State election. It is definitely a Doctors wives type seat, although it also has the major university so it has a few inner city attributes.
    Scott Emerson was defeated, which was a pretty extraordinary event. Possibly there was a synergistic effect, since BOTH Greens and ALP had excellent candidates and they may have each drawn votes from the Libs.
    Should Jane Prentice resign or not run then Ryan is definitely a chance for a green snatch from the LNP. Once it would have been Brisbane but Trevor Evans is young and has cemented himself in I am told.”

    The Liberals have a stronger vote federally in Queensland because voters view them the natural party of government on issues (immigration and economic management). They don’t have the same dominance in state because issues of (health and education) the perception is more with the Left. So you have to be careful making too much of collusion of state issues with federal issues in terms of voting patterns.

    I would also be careful of championing the Greens result too much. I doubt they would have picked up the seat if Steve Miles had put the party before himself and recontested Maiwar. People such as Miles and Jane Garrett haven’t done the party any favors running away from a fight just so they can find a safer seat in parliament.

  24. i never said shorten should be replaced – just ruefully at this time reflected it is a shame someone else is not there, and that the feeling one has that democratic processes in major party are not controlled so much by one union sector – i am not opposed to unions neither am i a member – but real talent doesn’t get a look in in party or its leadership … it would be nice to want to hear what he has to say instead of having a robotalk sensation

  25. http://indigenousx.com.au/change-requires-courage-we-need-all-australians-to-walk-with-us/#.WjYDd-RG2Ym

    @teelareid
    Following #QandA I was a guest on the ‘Triple J Hack’ program alongside respected Yawuru man and Senator Patrick Dodson, known by many as the Father of Reconciliation. Senator Dodson confirmed he is ‘not put in parliament exclusively by Aboriginal and Torres Strait islander people’. Additionally, a Senators role is very different to the type of representative Voice the Uluru Statement offers.
    …
    What is even more concerning about the PM’s performance on #QandA is that he offered no real alternative to move our country forward on the issue of recognising First Nations Australians. He simply wasn’t interested in offering solutions, and instead he seemed so keen on lecturing us about his belief that we are incapable of setting up our own structures. He proved he is not the leader that will unite Australians, as he purposely set out to divide and conquer.

  26. Glad to see that the booth (Meadowbank TAFE) where Vote1Julia and yours truly were on picket duty yesterday scored an easy win for KK with a stunning 7.92% swing to Labor (3 points over the electorate average).

    We did volunteer to drop in to other booths to show them “how it’s done”, but the booth captain didn’t have room in his car for all of V1J, me and the other half of the horse.

    We can now only speculate…

  27. PLW

    shorten is the prime cause of instability in this country – unless i am wrong

    would love to hear rudd on the subject
    how dare he lecture us on stability

  28. Politcal night watchman @ #422 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 4:36 pm

    “The Greens just took a Liberal Seat in Qld State election. It is definitely a Doctors wives type seat, although it also has the major university so it has a few inner city attributes.
    Scott Emerson was defeated, which was a pretty extraordinary event. Possibly there was a synergistic effect, since BOTH Greens and ALP had excellent candidates and they may have each drawn votes from the Libs.
    Should Jane Prentice resign or not run then Ryan is definitely a chance for a green snatch from the LNP. Once it would have been Brisbane but Trevor Evans is young and has cemented himself in I am told.”

    The Liberals have a stronger vote federally in Queensland because voters view them the natural party of government on issues (immigration and economic management). They don’t have the same dominance in state because issues of (health and education) the perception is more with the Left. So you have to be careful making too much of collusion of state issues with federal issues in terms of voting patterns.

    I would also be careful of championing the Greens result too much. I doubt they would have picked up the seat if Steve Miles had put the party before himself and recontested Maiwar. People such as Miles and Jane Garrett haven’t done the party any favors running away from a fight just so they can find a safer seat in parliament.

    Jane Garrett will now have to stand and fight or quit as Labor’s candidate.
    If she chooses to fight, she has damaged her standing in the community by seeking to cut and run, and reduced her chances.
    I used to respect her.

  30. shorten is leader you have when you aren’t having a leader and when there is no option – yes he will gain office but for how long – how long must the gods punish this country for 2010

  31. Just took a robocall from a male voice.
    “This is a quick survey about how you allocated preferences in the Bennelong by election ” (or WTTE).
    “Did you you give your first preference to 1 Liberal 2 Labor 3 Greens …” Etc
    At which point I hung up.
    Questioner was quite abrupt. No please or by your leave.
    NO statement about who is running it
    NO statement who it is for.
    So…
    NO response from me (nor partner).
    We are over surveys, especially from people who have an inflated sense of entitlement to our information.

  32. The Sydney Morning Herald
    1 hr ·
    Analysis: With so much instability in Australia’s politics, the last thing the country needed was yet another failed prime ministership.

    They write this as if Turnbull’s prime ministership isn’t already a massive failure.

  33. geoffrey says:
    Sunday, December 17, 2017 at 4:49 pm
    PLW

    shorten is the prime cause of instability in this country – unless i am wrong

    would love to hear rudd on the subject
    how dare he lecture us on stability

    I must have missed something. This makes no sense to me.

  34. geoffrey says:
    Sunday, December 17, 2017 at 4:44 pm
    i never said shorten should be replaced

    Re-read your posts. They read like you would love Shorten to be replaced.

  35. It is foolish to argue that allegations of sexual misconduct should be treated as true until proven untrue. The wise approach is to have a process that treats allegations with seriousness, complainants with respect, and accused people with fairness. There needs to be a fair and rigorous process for assessing the veracity of accusations and deciding responses that are proportionate to the situation.

  37. “Jane Garrett will now have to stand and fight or quit as Labor’s candidate.
    If she chooses to fight, she has damaged her standing in the community by seeking to cut and run, and reduced her chances.
    I used to respect her.”

    Can she still recontest the seat? I was from the understanding Labor have already found a replacement candidate in Ged Kearney.

    And its now a matter of Garrett took a gamble abandoning her seat to a contest a safe upper house seat and it failed and will now exit parliament at the next election.

  38. Question @ #433 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 4:53 pm

    geoffrey says:
    Sunday, December 17, 2017 at 4:49 pm
    PLW

    shorten is the prime cause of instability in this country – unless i am wrong

    would love to hear rudd on the subject
    how dare he lecture us on stability

    I must have missed something. This makes no sense to me.

    It assumes Shorten was behind the plot of June 2010, from whence all the instability sprang.

  39. Nicholas @ #435 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 3:57 pm

    It is foolish to argue that allegations of sexual misconduct should be treated as true until proven untrue. The wise approach is to have a process that treats allegations with seriousness, complainants with respect, and accused people with fairness. There needs to be a fair and rigorous process for assessing the veracity of accusations and deciding responses that are proportionate to the situation.

    Definitely the first and probably the last time I will agree 100% with Nicholas. Also applies to child abuse and corruption.

  41. But seriously, folks…

    One of the main rationales put about by the CPG and their patrons, the Coalition, for the swing TO Barnarby Joyce was “the sympathy vote”: a solid gesture of support for all the poor little beetroot had been through with that citizenship distraction.

    Well, I’d like to see them apply that to John Alexander. Even the up-themselves landed gentry of Epping North recorded a swing against him (although, less than at our political killing fields in Meadowbank – he says modestly).

    If this swing againstJA in every booth did include some positive sympathy for the absentee millionaire tennis champ, anddid include some negative antagonism against KK for her associations with Honest Joe Tripodi and Fast Eddie Obeid (of the Dublin Obeids), it confirms only that the swing figures are more murky than at first they appear.

    I’ll leave it to the gurus to sort out the finer points of the demographics of each booth, but there were some pretty big swings in some heavily Chinese areas of the electorate, more so(it seems) than not.

    We should also not forget that fewer than is usual in-by elections would have regarded this as the opportunity for just a whimsical protest vote. Punters would have been very aware that the fate of the government rested on their decision. So those who might have been pissed off with Turnbull, but not that badly, might have stayed in the Coalition fold, just as in general elections there is nearly always a narrowing.

    All-in-all the lesson is (first for Labor) candidates with the whiff of corruption about them are poison (sorry to KK for saying this, but I think it’s true), and (for the government) eat, drink and be merry at the after-poll piss-up, for tomorrow you die.

  42. Politcal night watchman @ #437 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 5:00 pm

    “Jane Garrett will now have to stand and fight or quit as Labor’s candidate.
    If she chooses to fight, she has damaged her standing in the community by seeking to cut and run, and reduced her chances.
    I used to respect her.”

    Can she still recontest the seat? I was from the understanding Labor have already found a replacement candidate in Ged Kearney.

    And its now a matter of Garrett took a gamble abandoning her seat to a contest a safe upper house seat and it failed and will now exit parliament at the next election.

    I know Ged was talked about but am not sure if it is confirmed. I hope it is correct, Ged will be a great asset to the State Govt.

  46. BB
    You, V1Julia and the rest of the horse did very very well.

    Yes, she was a fine little filly who had a dirty job. Wish I’d caught her name.

  47. No comment

    “A senior Labor MP said the relatively small swing of about five per cent to Labor’s Kristina Keneally was “a terrible result, we poured a lot of resources into it and it’s an ordinary outcome”.

    “Bill was a big negative in Bennelong but he wouldn’t stay away.” ”

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-facing-as-many-as-four-byelections-in-2018-after-bennelong-win-restores-turnbull-majority-20171216-h05yg0.html

  48. The Sydney Morning Herald
    1 hr ·
    Analysis: With so much instability in Australia’s politics, the last thing the country needed was yet another failed prime ministership.

    Funny, isn’t it? As soon as their man gets to be Prime Minister, all this musical chairs business, swapping PMs and the like, should stop for the good of the nation.

    Like him or loathe him, Malcolm is the guy in charge,and now we should all wait for our next chance to throw him out before we… throw him out.

    By which time he’ll have had more reboots than an old laptop running Vista.

    The look on Turnbull’s face last night, and the shrill tone of his voice as he gave his victory speech is evidence enough that he’d stared into the abyss in the last 4 weeks and didn’t like what he saw.

  50. Diogenes @ #447 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 5:17 pm

    No comment

    “A senior Labor MP said the relatively small swing of about five per cent to Labor’s Kristina Keneally was “a terrible result, we poured a lot of resources into it and it’s an ordinary outcome”.

    “Bill was a big negative in Bennelong but he wouldn’t stay away.” ”

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-facing-as-many-as-four-byelections-in-2018-after-bennelong-win-restores-turnbull-majority-20171216-h05yg0.html

    Is the “Bill” referred to one “Bushfire Bill”? 😛

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