In a week where only Essential Research reported a national voting intention result, BludgerTrack records a tick to Labor – although it’s actually due to me finally being able to add last fortnight’s ReachTEL to the mix, for which I hadn’t previously been able to get full primary vote numbers, and which was actually a bit of a shocker for the Coalition by the pollster’s standards. As for the state breakdowns, all I can really offer at the moment is apologies for how screwy the Queensland numbers are looking. Whether because of state election static, or simply a freakish accumlation of outliers over a very short period, six of the last seven results I have from Queensland have the Coalition primary vote at 30% or below, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election. It will be interesting to see what we get from the Newspoll quarterly aggregation, which should be along in a week or two. Essential had its montly leadership ratings this week, which have givenn Malcolm Turnbull a bit of a lift. Full results on the sidebar.
I suspect that Turnbull’s China bashing didn’t go down well with those of Chinese origin in the electorate but went down a treat elsewhere. I also suspect that Malcolm will pull it out for the next election, while screaming he’s innocent and has a Chinese grand-daughter. He really is a very dangerous man.
l think KKs chances are much better outside NSW. She seems to have taken on an almost saintly aura amongst PBs apparently based on her appearances on Sky.
Many in NSW will remember the ineptitude of her government which was eventually awarded with a primary vote of 25%. Next year also promises to be a big year in the resolution of the corruption of her government.
The definitive McDonald/Obeid boys trial for the coal mining saga starts in March and is schedujed for 6 Months. Before it ends the trial of Tripodi and Kelly over the forged cabinet submission will commence
guytaur says:
Sunday, December 17, 2017 at 10:48 am
Don
Could be done by employing a few Asian reporters out of Journalism school.
The ABC has been getting better with presenters on 24. Not that hard for outlets to do.
For an outfit like Crikey they could indeed have a guest reporter for such occasions
Yes, could be done, I agree. It wasn’t seen as important, I guess – or wasn’t thought of at all.
I suspect news outlets wouldn’t have wanted to spend extra money on journos when they have ‘experts’ of their own who already had the result they wanted in mind and would report it as such.
Am I cynical? You bet we are, you bet I am.
Ides:
She said KK should’ve responded with ‘if I’d known then what I know now no way in hell would I have even considered McDonald for a cabinet position’.
Even Mark Kenny observed that no political leader has ever gotten the leadership without relying on support from questionable members of the party.
The Shoppies are not high in my esteem, though I am working from hearsay not direct knowledge. My impression is that it is a union mostly headed by men with Catholic-based religious beliefs which disadvantage women’s control of their reproductive systems.
My impression may be wrong, or outdated but I get the impression the union is a vehicle for power rather than there for the members,
If that is not the case then that union has some image problems.
Here in frontier land out in the West, the by-election barely gets a mention in the local Sunday rag other than the win by the LNP ‘saves’ the government’s majority in the HorR and the word “relief” for Turnbull comes up a lot.
From over this side the electorate, based where it is, looked decidedly Liberal territory and the likelihood of a Labor win was a long-shot.
It was a golden moment when Howard lost both government and that seat but not even a savvy media personality could keep it for Labor more than one term…..
Turnbull is now generally recognised as a weak, indecisively leader totally incapable of keeping his own right-wing on side with him, let along the rest of the electorate. The current polls have it about right for him and the LNP at the moment.
Doyley,
Journalists Ben Schneider & Royce Millar had earlier exposed the dodgy deal between Coles and SDA.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/coles-admits-much-of-its-workforce-underpaid-after-sda-deals-20170608-gwnfl4.html
Who to believe? SDA? Don’t think so.
TPOF @ #166 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 10:22 am
How does your analysis differ from those you dismiss as ‘facile’? Is it based on hard data? What are your sources?
Demographically, Bennelong is unlikely to go to Labor unless the Libs just keep on annoying the local people of Chinese and other Asian descent with their dog whistling and occasional overt racism, or over a longer period of time, the demographics change.
Fess
I believe the response would be something along the lines of not wanting to get into the details. Bat it away before you get caught.
PTMD
Not sure how it post Joe de Bruyn but you would hope the only way is up !
As for Joe a couple of quotes ,
Erica Betz- “Joe de Bruyn is a role model of trade union officialdom. He is the type of official that gives trade unionism a good name.”
Gough Whitlam – “a Dutchman who hates dykes”.
.
“Why is the union that represents supermarket workers stopping gay marriage?
The shoppies are the last surviving of the Catholic-controlled “grouper” unions – as they were known in the 1940s and 50s – named after the industrial groups organised to counter communists in the unions.”
http://www.smh.com.au/national/why-is-the-union-that-represents-supermarket-workers-stopping-gay-marriage-20150430-1mwl32.html
Jordonsteele: “The doctor suggested I apply for a disability sticker and I said ‘no! I still have my pride’ – @JAforBennelong
Those who use the ACROD card (like me) have nothing to be ashamed of. Those who peddle the idea that disability=weakness, do.
Apologize. Now.
#BennelongVotes #auspol
Edwina StJohn @ #199 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 10:48 am
For once ESJ is correct on something.
I would not reject them, but nor would I embrace them.
I feel let down by the result of Bennelong election. I expected better, I don’t blame Shorten nor Dastyari nor the ALP in general. I put the whole blame on the voters themselves, we have had four years of bad Government and bad policies, a PM noone knows what he stands for except maybe his personal wealth, where he hides his wealth in Cayman Islands.
don @ #203 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 10:51 am
ABC has a growing number of reporters/presenters of various ethnicities and they are first class. Certainly no tokenism.
1. I didn’t realize that Whitlam was an arrogant ethnic basher. De Bruyn is an Australian.
2. Coles can walk away from enterprize agreements any time it likes. It can use the penalty rate cuts as the starting point for its workers.
3. People need to understand something quite basic here: the bosses have all the power. And all over Australia and in literally millions of jobs they are either killing off wages growth or reducing wages.
4. Wages as a share of GDP has never been lower.
5. For most Australians real wages are falling.
6. The generally left public sector unions (no doubt full of righteous loathers of the socially conservative right winger De Bruyn) at the Federal level are demonstrating to a ‘T’ just what left wing unions can achieve for their workers. These workers have not had a pay rise since 2013.
Instead of bashing the Shoppies in some sort of stupid reflexive right bashing, have a good hard think about what is going on.
Without the shoppies and without de Bruyn, Coles’ workers would be getting the dregs and the pits.
Do bloody well wake up!
@ Jackol – 10:11 am – spot on. Can’t do a proper comparison between wages and conditions in two seperate operations without knowing all the facts.
This ‘criticism’ typical ‘joint ticket’ LNP/Greens type mischief making. Notice the attempt to shoot home ‘blame’ to Bill Shorten directly?
Pegasus @ #209 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 10:58 am
The Shorten/Labor security unit on PB now resorts to defending big corp over workers.
Bennelong 2PP results (Liberal 2PP) in last 20 years (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_results_for_the_Division_of_Bennelong#Elections_in_the_2010s):
2017: 54.8 (added 0.5 to current value on AEC site)
2016: 59.7 (resisted swing against Coalition – popular local member?)
2013: 57.8 (Coalition landslide)
2010: 53.1 (Overall election 2PP close to 50-50. Maybe a sort of ‘equilibrium’ value)
2007: 48.6 (Only Labor win since seat created in 1949)
2004: 54.3 (Meh)
2001: 57.7 (Tampa – dogwhistling didn’t hurt)
1998: 56.0 (Labor high water mark 1996-2004).
Looks like a tall order for Labor.
EDIT: Geographically, Bennelong lies between the North Shore (North Sydney / Bradfield) and the Parramatta / Hills district. It is a mixed elecorate, parts resembling the North Shore (solid Liberal) and parts more like Western Sydney. It has been ‘migrating’ Westwards via redristributions.
I’m in the not giving KK a seat group. Too much potential for continuing to drag other MPs votes down with Obeid Inc. Labor should move on.
“Australian Federal Police charge 59yo Sydney man for allegedly acting as economic agent for North Korea”
Dastyari? 😉
BW
The public sectors are the only sectors to have wage increases above inflation this year. They also happen to be represented by those so called left unions. Meanwhile retail workers pay went backwards with the SDA. #justsaying.
@ TPOF – 11:22 am. Spot on analysis in my view of the wash up from Bennelong and the current state of play.
Diogenes @ #221 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 7:25 am
Recent experiences may have aged him, but not that much!!! 🙂
Boerwar
The Shoppies can GGF for decades of pushing their “Grouper” crap that was so utterly unreflective of their membership……………………That and for giving us Feeney.
Dio
Is Dastyari a 59 year old man from Eastwood?
Well at least we know who to blame now! Problem solved!
Facts.
1. There was a swing TO Barnaby Joyce in his S44 by-election.
2. There was a swing AWAY from John Alexander in his S44 by-election.
No ‘sympathy vote’ in Bennelong.
Barney in Go Dau @ #170 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 10:24 am
Keneally could probably win Bennelong when no-one else could. Any other seat that Keneally could win could probably also be won by someone else.
So, KK running again anywhere but in Bennelong is a pointless waste of resources and talent!
I always thought 10 percent or thereabouts as a bridge to far for KK. But we all know what 5 percent swings will do to a few Tory MPs, including a some ministers in WA. Can’t see a “sympathy vote” for Christian Porter.
Idiot quote of the campaign (maybe even the year) goes to Edwina for suggesting this morning that under Labor Obeid would never have been prosecuted.
If that is what passes for intelligent debate here these days I think I will take a Christmas break. Probably won’t be missed but there you go.
RobCoco: @timwilsoncomau @TurnbullMalcolm I don’t recall using my postal survey to make any comment on Malcolm’s leadership – I remember feeling the need to beg my family and neighbours to accept me as a person though.
Id prefer that Labor puts more effort into the marginals over Bennelong. I think 2007 was an aberration (while also a technical mastertroke by McKew’s partner Brad Hogg).
While the margin is smaller now, I think that was the result of a campaign that can not be sustained in a general election. There is no way Labor can muster 4000 volunteers during a GE for one seat. Come the next general election I expect a small swing to the Libs in Bennelong, even with JA retiring.
Player One @ #229 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 7:31 am
Not if that seat is easier to retain!
You obviously don’t rate KK and see her value to Labor as any more than a sugar hit!!
bemused
Yes certainly no tokenism from the ABC. They just need a Mandarin speaking journo now to highlight issues in an increasingly important part of our discourse. Not just for sending to Beijing.
GT
The previous Foreign Correspondent guy for China on the ABC spoke Mandarin but he seems to have disappeared.
Edit: Stephen McDonald.
IoM
The confusion about social conservatism and doing a union job for your workers has blinded the the left here.
Federal public servants in wtte social security, covered by a socially progressive union, have not had a pay increase since 2013. That comes to a real wages fall of around 8%.
The left wingers who criticize the Shoppies are doing the bosses a favour.
Ides of March @ #232 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 11:37 am
Bob Hogg will be surprised at his name change.
In a General Election it is true you won’t get 4,000 volunteers in one seat. The whole effort on both sides is more widely dispersed and you won’t need 4,000 in any seat.
Labor has a growing network of campaigners and will deploy hundreds in most seats. More than enough to staff the phone bank and maybe even door-knock every household at least once.
guytaur @ #234 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 11:39 am
They are not an ethnic TV service.
That is more what SBS should be doing and probably does.
BW
I dont hate the SDA because they are socially conservative, I hate them for selling out their members.
Bemused
See ABS census results. Mandarin is the second langauage of Australia.
If you watch TV you would think Australia was almost entirely white. Not what you see when you walk down any city street in Australia
guytaur @ #240 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 11:47 am
A very distant second. And most are bi-lingual.
And we are an English speaking nation.
A person who does not speak English is severely disadvantaged participating as a citizen.
Many in NSW will remember the ineptitude of her government which was eventually awarded with a primary vote of 25%. Next year also promises to be a big year in the resolution of the corruption of her government.
The definitive McDonald/Obeid boys trial for the coal mining saga starts in March and is scheduled for 6 Months. Before it ends the trial of Tripodi and Kelly over the forged cabinet submission will commence
Oakeshott Country, full of it again I see.
Facts:
* Kristina Keneally was in power for less than 2 years.
* After her government’s defeat in 2011, Labor had been in power in NSW for 16 years! Yet you are trying to sheet ALL the blame for that to her, and the very low election result and PV. Which she improved over her time as Premier, from a likely nett result after the election of only 13 seats to Labor, to the 20 they actually got.
So that’s a pathetic oversimplification of the facts from you.
* You also fail to mention this occurred while she was Premier:
Keneally pushed to renew the Labor Party, with 23 members of the 50 caucus members retiring. Her push also included the resignation of the NSW Labor President, Bernie Riordan and retirements of Labor powerbrokers, Joe Tripodi and Eddie Obeid.
Not to mention giving evidence against them at ICAC, for which, yes, they will be prosecuted next year. Crimes which have nothing to do with her, otherwise she would be being prosecuted as well.
Bemused
No one is saying they should speak Mandarin on televison. Just that that they can talk to Mandarin speaking people to get an accurate picture.
IOM
Steve McDonell is now with the BBC
I don’t expect much balance from Insiders anymore but they really out did themselves today, Marr, Kenny and Barry who is getting worse with age, actually asking questions to Savva and allowing Kenny to interrupt and answer the question. FFS they are a public broadcaster do they even know or care they have people other than the left watching them trying to here some balance, do they actually want people to turn over to Sky. The ABC are not Fairfax or the Guardian they are the public’s broadcaster. Anyway last one for the year and they have a break at the ABC for two months over Christmas, good for some.
GT
Ta – hes really good.
Ides of March,
The swing against the Liberal Party in Bennelong if they elect this guy to replace a retiring John Alexander:
Mr Denmore @MrDenmore
2h2 hours ago
Malcolm’s got his mojo working, his mainstream media cheerleaders tell us….again and again and again. #auspol #BennelongVotes
The alternative to the SDA . The Retail and Fast Food Workers Union- an unaffiliated union, beholden to no political party, run by workers for the workers.
http://www.raffwu.org.au/
Whilst people here are debating the merits of the ABC hiring a few more Mandarin-speaking journos, The Australian has quietly already done it:
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-australian-newspaper-launches-chinese-language-website
The Chinese in Australia might be a smallish minority, but they’re the biggest (and fastest growing) language group after English, they’re well-educated and they’re increasingly wealthy. Furthermore, whilst the Chinese Australians used to be mainly SE Asians or HKers, the Mainlanders now significantly outnumber them, especially in the younger demographics. If you’re in business or politics, you ignore them at your peril.
I’m a white guy who speaks fairly good Mandarin, among a few other languages… But it’s the only language besides English that I actually use on a daily basis, even if just listening in on conversations on the train. That the Australian Chinese are pretty much all also fluent in English isn’t the point, it’s the symbolism of reaching out to the community.
Expat
I only mentioned the ABC because I think its the only network that has worked hard on getting diversity into its lineup.
This is contrasted strongly in the cricket commentary. ABC Kate McGregor. Channel 9 lots of old white blokes.