A thread for discussion of the count in the Alabama Senate race, where the face of modern Republicanism, Roy Moore, does battle with Democratic candidate Doug Jones for the seat vacated by Jeff Sessions’ appointment to the Trump administration as Attorney-General.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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I still maintain Moore will win. The margin is however likely to be close.
@Jimmy
Apparently there are also some republican friendly suburbs to come in from big cities.
So looking at the NYT site, there are still a lot of Dem area to report.
DAVID WASSERMAN 9:55 PM
Right now, Jones is down around 36,000 votes with 71 percent of precincts reporting statewide. Montgomery County is the biggest vote trove remaining for Jones, with all Selma and much of Birmingham still remaining for him as well. Moore has some good areas left, including Baldwin County outside Mobile. I’m not convinced Jones’s current leads in Birmingham and Mobile are going to stay as wide as they are when more precincts report. It all adds up to a photo finish.
This is 538
Question @ #48 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 1:59 pm
back to 74%.
Whew!
NYT
78% counted
Final estimate
Jones 50.5
More 48
Jones 74% chance of winning
NYT has a higher number of precincts reporting but a lower vote total than 538???
6K in it now. fascinating to watch in real time.
85% counted
Jones 77% chance
🙂 🙂
Gorks,
Not really. Most of the suburbs of Birmingham are located within Jefferson County, and judging by the lopsided margin in that county, it’s looking as though the Birmingham suburbs have stampeded to the Democrats.
Shelby County, which contains the rest of the Birmingham suburbs, is waaaaay down on its Republican vote in 2016 – Moore is winning that county by 18 points, while Trump won by 50 points.
IOM
Yes. Rural precincts report faster
GT
Its more that the two sites are inconsistent.
One saying 81% reporting but having 900,000 votes counted.
One says 77% counted by 1 mill votes.
DAVID WASSERMAN 10:10 PM
Jones is behind by about 6,000 votes with 81 percent reporting, but almost all the areas that are still outstanding are good for him. That’s probably enough to make him the favorite, but Jefferson County’s tally so far is very favorable to Jones. It’s possible there are still a lot of outstanding GOP precincts there. You’d rather be Jones right now, but it’s still too close to call.
I think one of them is using the Russian feed.
I think one of them is using the Russian feed.
The Write In candidate is V. Putin? 🙂
Jones will overtake Moore any minute now.
Dead heat
Jones 84% chance
@anton…it’s called the “Jumpin Jack Flash” feed.
Looks like Selma is going to one of the last areas to report.
Thas expected for to be heavily Jones territory
CANDIDATE PARTY VOTES PCT.
Roy Moore
Republican
527,231 49.2%
Doug Jones
Democrat
527,098 49.2
Total Write-Ins
—
16,760 1.6
Trump making more history…leading the GOP to defeat in the South
Was this the final battle of the Civil War?
In Monroe County, Moore won by only 32 votes!
Roy Moore 527,231 49.2%
Doug Jones 527,098 49.2%
NYT’s numbers, which are a little ahead of 538’s.
If Jones wins, Trump will blow a gasket!
Jones now in the lead, and I fully expect him to stay there.
And Jones takes the lead 🙂
Jones ahead by 0.2%. I hope the psychological blow from this makes Trump’s head explode.
My God! Alabama voting a Democrat into the Senate!
Next up: a plague of locusts, I’m sure!
Nek minnit:
Doug Jones 540,355 49.6%
Roy Moore 533,209 48.9%
Nate:
Well it’s good to know that America has SOME standards it’s willing to keep, and keeping a sexual predator out of Congress is one them!
ALABAMA! Who’d have thunk it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ye5BuYf8q4o
Trump making America great again.
FMD. Jones might actually win.
JimmyD says:
Wednesday, December 13, 2017 at 2:17 pm
Jones now in the lead, and I fully expect him to stay there.
Woooohooooo!
The Tea Party is over!
I think NYT just effectively called it for Jones. Now have him on ‘>95%’.
Its over according to NYT
The south have said “No Moore”.
Geez, you’re late to the party, mate – he’s already won!
And confining them to where they belong — the White House (that’s a bipartisan sledge, natch).
@TwitterNews has a live feed from Buzzfeed in Alabama you can watch.
I know this isn’t in Aus but if the rednecks can vote Dem there is hope.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCl87FzzhrQ
Is this a harbinger for Bennelong?
#AlabamaSenateElection
I gather Selma was indeed the tipping point.
WillBowe – lol!
The last Democrat Senator for Alabama was elected in 1986. He became a republican in 1994. Hes still there.
The last democrat to win a statewide office in AL was in 2008. It was for something not even in their state parliament.
Jones up by 31 votes with 92% of Precincts reporting.
Nate reckons the Upshot model has been “bullish on Jones all night”, which I think you can take a subtle criticism of it.