Alabammy bound

A thread for discussion of the count in the Alabama Senate race, where the face of modern Republicanism, Roy Moore, does battle with Democratic candidate Doug Jones for the seat vacated by Jeff Sessions’ appointment to the Trump administration as Attorney-General.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

137 comments on “Alabammy bound”

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    Right now, Jones is down around 36,000 votes with 71 percent of precincts reporting statewide. Montgomery County is the biggest vote trove remaining for Jones, with all Selma and much of Birmingham still remaining for him as well. Moore has some good areas left, including Baldwin County outside Mobile. I’m not convinced Jones’s current leads in Birmingham and Mobile are going to stay as wide as they are when more precincts report. It all adds up to a photo finish.

  2. Gorks,

    Not really. Most of the suburbs of Birmingham are located within Jefferson County, and judging by the lopsided margin in that county, it’s looking as though the Birmingham suburbs have stampeded to the Democrats.

    Shelby County, which contains the rest of the Birmingham suburbs, is waaaaay down on its Republican vote in 2016 – Moore is winning that county by 18 points, while Trump won by 50 points.

  3. GT

    Its more that the two sites are inconsistent.

    One saying 81% reporting but having 900,000 votes counted.

    One says 77% counted by 1 mill votes.

    Jones is behind by about 6,000 votes with 81 percent reporting, but almost all the areas that are still outstanding are good for him. That’s probably enough to make him the favorite, but Jefferson County’s tally so far is very favorable to Jones. It’s possible there are still a lot of outstanding GOP precincts there. You’d rather be Jones right now, but it’s still too close to call.

    Roy Moore
    527,231 49.2%
    Doug Jones
    527,098 49.2
    Total Write-Ins

    16,760 1.6

    Trump making more history…leading the GOP to defeat in the South

  6. Nek minnit:
    Doug Jones 540,355 49.6%
    Roy Moore 533,209 48.9%


    Moore has to hope that the precincts yet to report in those blue-leaning counties are red-leaning precincts. It’s not totally unbelievable, because Alabama’s demographics can vary so much from town to town and neighborhood to neighborhood. But it’s not the hand you’d want to play at this point in the evening.

  7. JimmyD says:
    Wednesday, December 13, 2017 at 2:17 pm
    Jones now in the lead, and I fully expect him to stay there.


    The Tea Party is over!

  8. Well it’s good to know that America has SOME standards it’s willing to keep, and keeping a sexual predator out of Congress is one them!

    And confining them to where they belong — the White House (that’s a bipartisan sledge, natch).

  9. The last Democrat Senator for Alabama was elected in 1986. He became a republican in 1994. Hes still there.

    The last democrat to win a statewide office in AL was in 2008. It was for something not even in their state parliament.

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