Alabammy bound

A thread for discussion of the count in the Alabama Senate race, where the face of modern Republicanism, Roy Moore, does battle with Democratic candidate Doug Jones for the seat vacated by Jeff Sessions’ appointment to the Trump administration as Attorney-General.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

137 comments on “Alabammy bound”

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  4. Live Estimates of the Final Vote
    Updated at 9:17:20 PM ET
    Our estimates are based on the results reported so far, the results of previous elections and demographic data. Unlike reported results, they attempt to account for precincts that have not yet reported their votes. The shaded area in the gauge below shows the range of our forecasts.

    Right now, our most likely estimates span Jones +15 to Moore +6. The more we know, the narrower our range will be.

    Our best guess is that Mr. Jones has an advantage, but paths to victory remain for Mr. Moore.

    https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=b-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news#eln-forecast-section

  5. Nate_Cohn: And in terms of turnout, both white, rural, GOP counties fell *short* of our estimates, with Randolph–the least educated–falling well short. For now, our model assumes these turnout errors are uniform. But if they’re not, this could be an ominous sign for Moore.

  6. This perhaps the reason NYT is giving Jones a chance…..”Unlike reported results, they attempt to account for precincts that have not yet reported their votes. The shaded area in the gauge below shows the range of our forecasts.”………..

  8. HARRY ENTEN 9:23 PM
    Following up on that Nate Cohn tweet we posted below: I want to point out that Fayette County is all in. Moore won it by 50 points — well ahead of his benchmark there. Here’s the twist, though: There were less than 5,000 votes cast there. In 2014, there were nearly 7,000 votes cast there. In other words, turnout is way down from 2014 in a heavy pro-Moore area.

  11. So its Moore winning rural white counties by a larger margin than needed, but turnout is way down?

    Ie, big numbers of voters in democrat heavy counties could get Jones across the line?

  19. From David Wasserman at the 538 blog:

    The county-by-county margins point towards a really tight race. The turnout differentials, however, point toward really high African-American engagement relative to rural whites, and that’s very welcome news for Jones.

  23. krassenstein: Roy Moore is Up by 6% with 56% of Precincts reporting.

    Good news is that there are only 140 Heavy Favored Roy Moore Precincts remaining to count, but 400 Heavy Favored Doug Jones Precincts to count.

    Hope is alive!

    #AlabamaSenateElection

  27. AlexConant: The polls have been closed for 90 minutes & GOP could actually lose Senate seat. In ALABAMA. No matter what happens next, hard to overstate what a huge political disaster this is for Moore-apologists like Trump, let alone Moore-champions like Bannon.

  28. antonbruckner – depending on turnout, urban precincts can often have as many votes to count as entire rural counties – not just in Alabama but across the US.

  32. Jones really does seem to be crushing it in Birmingham compared with last time. Hard to believe that’s not on the back of a big jump in turn-over.

  33. Jimmy – they definitely do. There was a court case about what they do with the electronic data (they’re gonna dump it). But I suspect that someone has to scan the “votes” (maybe).

  34. Love that NY Times thing.

    Currently estimating Jones 50.9% Moore 47.6%. Expecting Jones to lead the remaining count by 14.5

    Jones 70% chance of winning.

  36. Guytaur – surely the estimated remaining vote is a guess based upon the last election. If turn-out is up, maybe Jones will romp home?

  45. I wonder if Jeff Sessions thinks it was all worth it? Despised as Attorney General by Trump and causing his party to maybe lose the Alabama Senate seat by his going.

  47. The only large numbers of votes remaining to be counted are urban votes for the Dems. This race is looking less and less about whether Jones will win (I think he already has), but rather how much Jones will win by.

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