First up, note that there are new posts below this one the near-finalisation of the Queensland election result, and the Tasmanian state poll from EMRS.
With three new polls added this week, the latest reading of BludgerTrack suggests last week’s surge to Labor to have been an aberration. However, the seat tally has wigged out this week, with both Ipsos and Essential recording particularly bad results for the Coalition from highly sensitive Queensland, and Ipsos producing a profoundly off-trend 57-43 lead to the Coalition in Western Australia. These results respectively cause Labor to gain four seats, and lose five – maybe the Queensland result reflects the impact of the state election, but I think you can take it for granted that the Liberal gain in Western Australia will wash out over the coming weeks.
Newspoll and Ipsos both produced new data on leadership ratings, but the trend measures here haven’t changed much. A further footnote from the Ipsos poll: the respondent-allocated two-party preferred result was 52-48, compared with a headline figure of 53-47, which is the best result the Coalition has had from anyone other than YouGov for a while.
As always, full results on the sidebar.
It does seem an unfortunate pattern – NSW Labor Secretaries seem to blow up prematurely like the Space Shuttle Challenger.
Who’s actually gone the distance? Id say Thistlethwaite is the only one in the last forty years who hasn’t (yet) blown up before his time .
I don’t qualify to answer the SD question.
Nicholas @ #1946 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 8:34 pm
What have you done? You’re an armchair expert with a dictionary stuck up your arse.
Sam is 34 and has heaps of potential.
how about you?
Atherton reckons there is no hard-wired drinking culture in the English team.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/the-times-sport/ben-stokes-drama-set-tone-for-englands-tour-of-woe/news-story/3957a4b8bed4883599602a4ebad624f9
Concern troll overload.
As a wise man once said; ‘Never explain, never complain, never resign’.
ESJ: Interesting Bennelong facts:
Bob Carr in Bennelong with Keneally – the Obeid/Beijing faction in action?
Chris Bowen photographed with the Chinese billionaire – questions to answer?
Who is funding the KK campaign? How do we know the money is clean?”
What are you trying to achieve? Why would you bother sitting on a computer for hours on end posting stuff like? OK, you’re probably multitasking, but maybe there are other things you could be doing to better advance whatever it is you are trying to achieve.
Why don’t you tell us what you believe and why. Try to convert us.
On the subject of arses, I see the former LNP member and Chinese business’ best friend, Clive Palmer, pleads complete innocence. Wish I didn’t have my money like him …..
Is there any truth in the rumour that KK would replace Sam D if she doesnt win on Saturday?
No. Setting a very, very bad precedent for the mongrels to employ the same tactics next time.
But Labor will buckle as they know the script by heart by now.
Boerwar @ #1954 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 8:41 pm
So you have Stokes, Hales, Bairstow, Duckett and others…. There are also stories filtering atm that the Duckett beer pouring incident wan’t the only indiscretion the other night!
Ides of March @ #1958 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 8:48 pm
How do you expect anyone here to know?
Libs in to China payments up to their ears.
Steve, the L-NP fanbois don’t do debate, policy has been beyond them since Abbott. It would be nice if they could do it, might save us from a bit of ALP/GRN infighting.
GG – But it’s OK when the “Liberals” do it…
Darn:
I’m leaning heavily to Yes. Not because his offence warrants being kicked from parliament – it doesn’t, at least in my uninformed view – but because its providing an unnessecary distraction and a very potent stick for Turnbull to beat Shorten with.
frednk:
Actually, frontbench MPs generally aren’t given a great deal of leeway to publicly express opinions that differ from party policy, especially where delicate foreign policy is concerned.
And the issue isn’t so much that he expressed the opinion, but rather that he a) appears to have recieved money for advocating said opinion and b) misled both Shorten and the public about said opinion once it came out. Does Labor really need someone who is willing to lie to their own leader, not to mention the general public, in their ranks, even if he is a great “warrior”?
Did he commit a crime? No, probably not. Were his actions severe enough to warrant being expelled from Labor or from parliament? I seriously doubt it. Is he a Chinese double agent? Nope, not unless the Chinese secret service is astonishingly, laughably incompetent.
But did he display incredibly poor judgement, needlessly throw his party into the shit, and try to cover it up? Yep. And would it be in federal Labor’s best interest if he resigned from parliament? I think so, yes, but I admit I could well have completely misjudged how this is all playing out to the broader electorate, as I am prone to do sometimes.
But he’ll have to go of his own volition. Labor don’t have any way of pushing him, as far as I can see.
AL,
So basically let the L-NP and the MSM bully him out?
Weak as piss.
In my view Cash puts Sam in the shade. Do you think she’s going to budge? Not an inch. As Bill Maher in the US would say, the left need to toughen up.
I think Dastayari should sue Dutton for defamation.. Truth is Dutton’s
only defence, and the Intelligence agencies won’t be able to go into any detail, I think they would demur.
Gosh, the groupies here shatter into a million tiny pieces when someone they like is caught screwing up, don’t they? Two words, guys: cognitive dissonance.
Yes, he should sue Dutton for defamation, but unfortunately it’s not part of the script.
In these difficult situations where a promising young man’s career hangs in the balance , I ask myself W.W.B.C do?
Bob Carr would turn it into a positive. How lucky are we that Sam has a direct line (through his handler) to the Popular Front Department in Beijing? Top-level access.
Just like our Bob personally intervened in Beijing to stop the Chinese funding Adani.
Labor values at work!!!
Steve777:
I don’t think ESJ believes much of anything. I think he is just a troll, in the classical sense, simply trying to piss people off and provoke a reaction. Most people here who get accused of being trolls are, IMO, true believers -they may not express their views in a likeable or convincing or even coherent fashion, but I believe they genuinely believe what they are writing. Not so much with ESJ
As this is is a predominantly Labor-leaning blog, ESJ’s “contributions” are calculated to annoy Labor supporters as much as possible. If the membership here mostly supported the Coalition instead, you can bet ESJ would be sledging Turnbull and Abbott and Dutton instead.
Admittedly, he has displayed an detailed knowledge of certain ultra-niche aspects of Labor factional politics in the past, enough so that I have suspected him to be a wannabe Labor insider who was kicked to the curb and now has an axe to grind. But, the for the most part, I think ESJ just enjoys pissing people off.
Whether a politician, say one named Sam or one named Bronwyn, resigns from senior positions or gets disendorsed*, depends upon the political exigencies of the day, not upon how serious the allegations / indiscretions/ crimes might be. That in turn depends upon how much the media want to push it.
So Michaelia Cash, who seems to have used the Australian Federal Police for political purposes and tipped off the media about a police raid (her responsibility even if a functionary did it) gets off scot free. Dutton lies his head off and gets rewarded.
Sam Dastyari, who seems to have acted stupidly but done nothing illegal and is certainly not a ‘double agent’ or such spy novel crap, looks like being hounded to his political grave. And Julia Gillard, who was accused of possibly illegally doing something illegal 20 years previously, had questions to answer even after she’d twice answered to exhaustion of the questioners everything they had to ask.
It’s all bullshit.
* he can’t be forced from Parliament except by the voters at the end of his term except in extremely limited circumstances, like being convicted of something
Whatever happens, I’m sure it will be the talk of the NSW ALP Xmas Party next week. 🙂
Edwina StJohn says:
Monday, December 11, 2017 at 8:33 pm
Maybe Dastyari will defect formally to Beijing after Saturday? Give a press conference from Beijing, wikileaks style?
Nicholas says:
Monday, December 11, 2017 at 8:34 pm
Sam D resigning from parliament would be no loss to the ALP (he would be replaced by another Labor Senator), and it would provide the party with some moral high ground on the issue of campaign finance. It’s not as though Sam D is a great asset as a parliamentarian. He isn’t an accomplished legislator, he isn’t an impressive public presenter, he isn’t a skillful retail politician. He’s a right-wing power broker who epitomises the worst aspects of his party. He has become a very high profile liability. He is eminently expendable.
The Gs and the neo-Fas…on the same page, in the same grease trap….
Steve777,
You are absolutely correct. It’s why Mark Arbib and Karl Bitar didn’t have to be pushed. They knew when the Fat Lady was singing. Sam’s not stupid, just indiscrete. So he’ll do the correct thing by the party.
Asha Leu @9:12PM – that makes sense.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-commits-to-53m-plan-to-make-hiv-history-in-australia-20171209-h01xlm.html
Has this been discussed?
Its a worry when this becomes political but the present government has been pretty slack in approving a “no brainer” drug like this.
solisoc says:
Monday, December 11, 2017 at 9:09 pm
Gosh, the groupies here shatter into a million tiny pieces when someone they like is caught screwing up, don’t they? Two words, guys: cognitive dissonance.
Your post has no meaning.
Question:
You’ll get no argument from me on that front. Cash isn’t fit for office.
And while the Dastyari stuff is in the public eye, it becomes just that much harder to Labor to persue vulnerable Coalition MPs like her.
One thing that has been very much to Labor’s benefit is how little they’ve had in the way of anything resembling a scandal since 2013. It has allowed them to go hard on the likes of Bronwyn Bishop and Mal Brough and Stuart Robert without fear of it coming back to bite them.
In fact, they only other time I can recall the Shorten opposition facing a potential major scandal in recent times was Take 1 of the Sam Dastyari saga.
How about Tony Burke flying his now wife first class to Europe on the taxpayer dime Asha leu?
No
Not until Jewelry Julie resigns.
To be sure. Our anti Dastyari intelligence gathering efforts are in the very best of hands.
Which NSW Secretary-Generals have gone the distance since the assassin in the cardigan took the Kingswood to Mascot?
I agree with Thistlewaite but he was sent to the Senate in disgrace after backing Sartor against Jane Jetson (how on Earth has she been rehabilitated?)
Of the others:
Richardson sexual and financial scandal and sold out
Loosley did the deal of the century with Centennial House
Della Bosca sexual scandal
Roosendahl financial scandal
Arbib sold out to Packer
Bitar sold out to Packer
Dastyari alleged financial scandal
Clements sexual scandal
As Roger Rogerson used to say it all comes down to cash, gash or stash
Poor GG – only 19days before your officially in favour of same sex marriage too!
The things one does for the party line eh?
For Anyone into True Crime podcasts, i can really recommend this episode of Casefile, dealing with a serial murderer in the Kimberley Ranges.
http://casefilepodcast.com/case-70-kimberley-murders/
Hey OC – great summary of the rogues gallery!
My all time favourite is being “met at the airport” OC. Do you recall?
Edwina StJohn @ #1985 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 9:29 pm
Are you dating again?
Sorry of course you do – your first line.
Why do we need a Corporate Tax Cut!?!
2016 tax revenues as % of GDP
Denmark 46%
France 45%
Sweden 44%
Italy 43%
Norway 38%
Germany 38%
Iceland 36%
Spain 34%
UK 33%
NZ 32%
Canada 32%
US 26%
And what is Australia on? 28.2%
Does it really need to go any lower?
I was worried about your conscience GG.
Whats your line – “I’ll do anything for a price, just no tongue”
Question says:
Monday, December 11, 2017 at 9:01 pm
AL,
So basically let the L-NP and the MSM bully him out?
Weak as piss.
I’m with you, Question.
Labor used to be good at defending members of its own tribe, even when they stuffed. Sam’s stuff up was minor compared with LNP stuffups (like Cash’s, for example, which really is illegal).
Labor’s strength since Shorten was made leader has been a unified front. Sam has been demoted. They now need to attack the LNP, like never before.
Oh, and stop talking about Sam.
ESJ:
Forget about that one, though it always struck me as being on the lower end as far as scandals go. Certainly the public don’t seem to have given much of a shit. Probably helped that it happened around the same time that about half the Coalition front bench seemed to be getting caught out for the same thing.
“No
Not until Jewelry Julie resigns.”
Get it right Puff…..its “Glorious Jewelry Julie”. 🙂
Interesting to see the RW reps here doing the smug as soon as things look……well…not so completely disastrous for the Libs. Infantile whistling past the graveyard stuff but funny.
Interesting choice: Defend Sam Dastyari OR win Bennelong and Government. Hmmm?
Beijing obviously decided keeping Sam was more important.
Perfectly good points AL.
C@tmomma
Note how many up the top end also feature prominently in the rankings for most equal,best social conditions,least corrupt etc.
Strong opening statement from PM Turnbull on Q&A.