ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

Overwhelming support for a banking royal commission, but stable voting intention in the latest ReachTEL.

A ReachTEL poll for Sky News has Labor leading 53-47, unchanged from the last such poll on October 25. However, rounding would have had to have worked pretty hard to prevent Labor gaining a point: the primaries have the Coalition down one to 33%, Labor up one to 36%, the Greens up one to 10%, and One Nation steady on 9%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead in the forced response two-party preferred question is 52-48, compared with 51-49 last time. Also featured: 69% support for a banking royal commission, with 12% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,961 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. sonar
    Excellent letter from Chris Bowen.
    Turnbull will be on hiding to nowhere if he tries to circumvent this. Mind you, he will probably try a weak sally, followed by inevitable ignominious retreat.

  2. Tom the first and best says:
    Friday, December 1, 2017 at 10:50 pm
    How can they have Joyce back without the result of the poll being declared?

    He cannot return to the Parliament. Surely that will have to wait for the return of the writ. But he can be returned to office and to his extra-parliamentary political roles.

  4. [‘..Joyce did not quite get to puce during today’s media harangue but his capillaries gave it their best shot.’]

    Sometimes you’re amusing, Boer.

  6. Chris Bowen is a hard head. I’ve met him a couple of times and think well of him. He is thoughtful, determined and practical. I think he will make an outstanding Treasurer.

  7. Confessions @ #1892 Friday, December 1st, 2017 – 6:44 pm

    This supposedly is the No vote on the marriage equality bills that passed the Senate.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>:large

    I am shocked to see Fierrvanti-Wells on that list. I thought she was a Yes???

    Why would you think that?

    CFW is one of the more rampant and consistent religious conservatives the Libs have.

    She was a consistent opposing voice in the Senate debate also.

  8. Welp, my last, enormously long post got marked as spam and is presumably now lost to the interwebs.

    Everyone just imagine I wrote something incredibly witty and thought-provoking, please.

  9. Barney:

    I didn’t get to see any of the Senate debates on the matter, but always thought that while CFW may have been deeply religious, that she was a Yes on the issue of marriage equality.

    Obviously my impression was mislaid.

  13. Tom the first and best says:
    Friday, December 1, 2017 at 10:50 pm
    How can they have Joyce back without the result of the poll being declared?

    The unstated inference being, that Barnaby Joyce will win the New England by-election tomorrow. The count will be quick and easy to do. The result will be declared tomorrow night. Cosgrove will be lined up and raring to go.

  15. @ briefly:

    [‘I have made friends with the local (Wanneroo) voice of the AJP.’]

    I’m so happy you’re so happy.

    Really, mate, is this as good as its gets?

  16. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, December 1, 2017 at 11:21 pm
    Tom the first and best says:
    Friday, December 1, 2017 at 10:50 pm
    How can they have Joyce back without the result of the poll being declared?

    The unstated inference being, that Barnaby Joyce will win the New England by-election tomorrow. The count will be quick and easy to do. The result will be declared tomorrow night. Cosgrove will be lined up and raring to go.

    I don’t think the result can be declared until all absent and postal votes have been returned, counted and entered. This usually takes ten days or so….

  18. I think it’s a good question from Tom. Can Joyce take his seat in the HoR without the result having been officially declared?

  19. C says:
    Friday, December 1, 2017 at 11:25 pm
    @ briefly:

    [‘I have made friends with the local (Wanneroo) voice of the AJP.’]

    I’m so happy you’re so happy.

    Really, mate, is this as good as its gets?

    Democracy is beautiful thing, C. The AJP are idealists and really do campaign on behalf of voiceless beings. The local person is very dedicated. I admire her. She knows they cannot win but they’re determined to participate in the political process in order to promote their cause, which is the protection of animals. This is a tough gig. Who else is going to do it? No-one that I can think of. So I think they are to be valued and respected. They believe they can make a difference by appealing to the public. I believe the same thing.

  20. Confessions says:
    Friday, December 1, 2017 at 11:31 pm
    I think it’s a good question from Tom. Can Joyce take his seat in the HoR without the result having been officially declared?

    The writ has to be returned before a member-elect can take their sat. But extra-parliamentary duties are, of course, always possible.

  24. Re New England timetable the last date for return of postals is December 15.

    but from a quick read of the (complicated) rules it seems it’s is possible to declare the result before that. Ie if winning candidate has more than 50 per cent of voters in electorate.

    But with 16 candidates they might be looking at a complicated preference count so may have to wait for postals.
    http://www.aec.gov.au/new-england/counting-process.htm

  27. C@t

    The reporter did not do the homework.

    And that should not surprise anybody.

    But from my reading if Joyce for instance gets an absolute majority before the preference count they may be able to declare him the winner.

    Would the AEC be under the pump to get it done ASAP? I reckon they just might

  29. Does this sum up Barnaby?

    I don’t want to change the world
    I’m not looking for a new England
    I’m just looking for another girl
    I don’t want to change the world
    I’m not looking for a new England
    I’m just looking for another girl

    https://youtu.be/l0sNQJRWsck

  30. If BJ can’t be back in parliament anyways immediately following the by-election result then WTF was the point of delaying the House sitting?

  31. rossmcg says:
    Friday, December 1, 2017 at 11:48 pm
    Re New England timetable the last date for return of postals is December 15.

    but from a quick read of the (complicated) rules it seems it’s is possible to declare the result before that. Ie if winning candidate has more than 50 per cent of voters in electorate.

    Interesting, ross!

    The AEC site also mentions that 25,000 early votes have been cast.

  34. Confessions says:
    Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 12:08 am
    If BJ can’t be back in parliament anyways immediately following the by-election result then WTF was the point of delaying the House sitting?

    To minimise the chances for rebellious Nationals to bring about the defeat of the Government in the House.

  37. The New York Times
    9 mins ·
    Breaking News: President Donald J. Trump’s ex-national security adviser, Michael Flynn, pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about contacts with Russia’s ambassador.

  39. Asha Leu @ #1469 Friday, December 1st, 2017 – 9:52 am

    jenauthor:

    The question has to be asked – will the coalition be dissolved soon.

    The Libs are tarnishing the Nats and they don’t like it!

    Wonderful as that would be, I can’t see it happening while the two parties are merged in Queensland. The logistics would be a nightmare.

    They are completely separate in WA – no coalition at all.

  40. grimace

    the two parties are merged in Queensland. The logistics would be a nightmare.

    The arrangements has not been a success and, I’d say, not quite, but close to a total disaster for them.

    They’ll ditch it during this period of opposition, I reckon.

  44. Watching CNN – Flynn in Court pleading guilty to lying to FBI re’contacts with Russians.

    The first real ‘domino’.

    CNN broadcast quite sane so far.

  46. Australia up against France, Denmark and Peru in Group C of FIFA World Cup 2018.

    Group A
    Russia
    Saudi Arabia
    Egypt
    Uruguay

    Group B
    Portugal
    Spain
    Morocco
    Iran

    Group C
    France
    Australia
    Peru
    Denmark

    Group D
    Argentina
    Iceland
    Croatia
    Nigeria

    Group E
    Brazil
    Switzerland
    Costa Rica
    Serbia

    Group F
    Germany
    Mexico
    Sweden
    South Korea

    Group G
    Belgium
    Panama
    Tunisia
    England

    Group H
    Poland
    Senegal
    Colombia
    Japan

    Three drawn matches might be the best Australia can hope for out of that.

  49. Hey

    I only get here on and off to post but did I see that Ketter voted NO on SSM.

    He is LABOR !!!!!!!!

    Yes that would be his position.

  50. Labor tried to protect bank customers, but Sinodinos, Cormann, O’Dwyer, all acted on the banks’ behalf against the customers.

    What is it with banks? The Coalition began dismantling the rules Labor had put in place to protect the public from them within weeks of taking office.

    …
    Labor’s Future of Financial Advice Act banned conflicted remuneration (bonuses for tellers and other staff who steered customers towards profitable products) and imposed an overarching obligation on financial advisers to act in the “bests interests” of their clients.

    Sinodinos said the “best interests” requirement would go.

    …

    In recent months the present minister Kelly O’Dwyer has been making it a priority to disrupt the governance arrangements of the only sector that seriously takes on the banks: the non-profit low-fee industry super funds.

    Why has acting as wingman for the banks been so important to the Coalition? It’d be lovely if the Royal Commission found out.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-coalition-and-the-banks-when-the-wingman-turns-inquisitor-20171130-gzvx6r.html

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