ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

Overwhelming support for a banking royal commission, but stable voting intention in the latest ReachTEL.

A ReachTEL poll for Sky News has Labor leading 53-47, unchanged from the last such poll on October 25. However, rounding would have had to have worked pretty hard to prevent Labor gaining a point: the primaries have the Coalition down one to 33%, Labor up one to 36%, the Greens up one to 10%, and One Nation steady on 9%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead in the forced response two-party preferred question is 52-48, compared with 51-49 last time. Also featured: 69% support for a banking royal commission, with 12% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,961 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. The question has to be asked – will the coalition be dissolved soon.

    The Libs are tarnishing the Nats and they don’t like it!

  2. Elaugaufein

    I’d sort of guessed their internals were awful in Benelong.

    Particularly telling is the dearth of polls. In such an important by election you would think there would be more than a dew.

  3. I believe that polls may be held back from the media until New England is finished. Next week we should see some.

    Otherwise its real close and neither Lab or Lib wants to spoil the fun.

  4. No, not rubbish at all Doyley. Made the same point a couple of days ago. The Nats will be perfectly happy to bend over and do whatever the Libs ask for in return for seats in government and some Pork IF they are safe in their seats no matter what they do.

    But they are under severe threat from PHON and Shooters and KAP etc.

    When it comes to a choice between Coalition solidarity or fighting to maintain their seats then the Libs can gagf as far as they’re concerned. If they come to the conclusion that campaigning against their own government might be the only thing that keeps their seats then they will campaign against their own government with all their might.

  5. The Libs that briefed Crowe will be underselling just how bad the situation for them is in Bennelong I reckon. Trumble’s desperation is deeper than 50/50. And Labor are clearly confident. It’s been obvious for quite a while that the ALP is planning on winning this whilst the Libs are hoping to just maybe hang on.

  6. Voice Endeavour says:
    Friday, December 1, 2017 at 12:22 pm
    “A bare-bones federal campaign in a contested seat should have a budget of $250k, even allowing that volunteer time is all free”

    No, it shouldn’t. The only reason you need $250k is because the other party has $250k.

    If both parties dropped their spend, say only buying 2 posters per
    pole in the electorate instead of 3, there would be no need impact (on voting, obviously less tress cut down).

    $250k is about $2.25 per enrolled voter. That is very little to spend to reach an electorate in a campaign, especially if you’re not the incumbent; if you’re the out-of-power contestant. For example, out where I am, in northern Perth suburbia, Community News will charge about $30k for a single wrap-around ad in one edition of its bi-weekly give-away paper that will reach about 1/3 of the electorate of Cowan. This paper usually runs a notable pro-Lib editorial bias, year-in/year-out. Campaigns could easily spend many hundreds of thousands to promote new-name/first time candidates running against sitting members. Federal electorates are big. Very big. Too big, imo.

    Out of interest, Anne Aly won Cowan with a huge amount less than $250k, but was helped enormously by the Liberals – especially Julie Bishop – who effectively campaigned non-stop for her for 2 weeks leading up to the election. The Liberals were a very great support to Labor in Cowan, as indeed they now are in Bennelong.

  7. [Equality in Space‏ @SpaceKidette · 13m13 minutes ago
    We should just remove the senate #estimates committee and let @workmanalice grill Cash!]

  8. Libs getting dirty? Cash also averred that Workman was not a journalist.

    [Alice Workman‏Verified account @workmanalice · 23m23 minutes ago

    Can someone plz tell Ian Macdonald and @SenatorCash I am NOT and have NEVER been a member of the Labor Party. kthanxbi #estimates

    ]

  9. ratsak @ #1461 Friday, December 1st, 2017 – 12:44 pm

    The Libs that briefed Crowe will be underselling just how bad the situation for them is in Bennelong I reckon. Trumble’s desperation is deeper than 50/50. And Labor are clearly confident. It’s been obvious for quite a while that the ALP is planning on winning this whilst the Libs are hoping to just maybe hang on.

    Shorten said at the outset that they were in Bennelong ‘for Government’.

  10. jenauthor:

    The question has to be asked – will the coalition be dissolved soon.

    The Libs are tarnishing the Nats and they don’t like it!

    Wonderful as that would be, I can’t see it happening while the two parties are merged in Queensland. The logistics would be a nightmare.

  11. Bw – The warrant for Palmer.

    I assume that it’s been issued because he won a big payment from CIT a couple of days ago. Someone must have run the argument that he’ll skip and join his nephew.

  12. Ides of March says:
    Friday, December 1, 2017 at 12:52 pm

    Either way expected better from Cash.

    Cash is a scrapper. Pointless expecting anything else from her. Desperate times for the Liberals.

  13. CTaR1

    The cover is that he is not delivering documents despite them being subpoena’d.
    I am sure you are right at a deeper level. If there is a bucket of real accessible cash, that changes everything.

  14. GT

    Im not suggesting they cant.

    Although i wager a lot of journalist dont join parties because they wish to be impartial.

    Only when running for office do they sign up

    (Rosemary Follet??? Maxine McKew, the newsreader that ran against Hockey in 2007)

  15. poroti @ #1453 Friday, December 1st, 2017 – 12:36 pm

    Elaugaufein

    I’d sort of guessed their internals were awful in Benelong.

    Particularly telling is the dearth of polls. In such an important by election you would think there would be more than a dew.

    lizzie @ #1464 Friday, December 1st, 2017 – 12:49 pm

    Libs getting dirty? Cash also averred that Workman was not a journalist.

    [Alice Workman‏Verified account @workmanalice · 23m23 minutes ago

    Can someone plz tell Ian Macdonald and @SenatorCash I am NOT and have NEVER been a member of the Labor Party. kthanxbi #estimates

    ]

    In their eyes a journalist is someone who obeys orders.

  16. AhronYoung: Chris Bowen says the PM @TurnbullMalcolm has Labor’s full support to remain in the job right up til the election

    Yep, just like they fully supported Tones remaining in the job. Not that there’s any more get of gaol cards for the Libs now, but a clearer statement of how little they fear this imbecile you couldn’t make.

    That and I’m sure they will take great personal satisfaction in seeing the smartarsed turd who has never been backwards in smearing anyone who gets in him way suffer a humiliating defeat at their hands. Just letting the Libs neck him wouldn’t be nearly as joyously unifying experience as watching him explode on election night.

  17. guytaur

    Flooding in concreted Melbourne occurs when the rain is extremely heavy. Flooding elsewhere when the land drains into the rivers. That may take a day or more.

  18. Life is simple for a simpleton like Cash. There’s her team and t’other team. If you are not on her team then clearly you are on t’other team and are therefore the scum of the earth. No shades of grey with helmet head.

  19. Trump Fails To ‘Bring Christmas Back’ As Almost Nobody Shows Up For His Tree Lighting

    Donald Trump claims he has brought Christmas back to the White House, but it was clear on Thursday night that nobody else got the memo.

    In fact, if anything, the holiday spirit in Washington is at an all-time low in the Trump era.

    This was quite apparent during the president’s first official tree lighting as rows and rows of seats stood empty for the annual holiday event.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/30/trumps-christmas-lighting-massive-failure-empty-seats-lights.html

  20. Victoria PR

    I hope your silence is due to reading the New York Times. It looks like they have their impeachment evidence 🙂

  21. ratsak,

    It will be interesting to see if any Nats ( apart from a limp retort from Batnaby )poke their heads up to have a go at the NSW deputy premier.

    So far it only appears to be Libs running him down.

    Cheers.

  22. CaLiCoKaT‏ @rojoh1 · 6m6 minutes ago

     More

    “Emergency Management Commissioner Craig Lapsley said people needed to be prepared for the storms, but urged caution after 12 men over the age of 50 needed medical treatment after falling from roofs while trying to clear gutters”

  23. ratsak @ #1489 Friday, December 1st, 2017 – 1:08 pm

    Life is simple for a simpleton like Cash. There’s her team and t’other team. If you are not on her team then clearly you are on t’other team and are therefore the scum of the earth. No shades of grey with helmet head.

    That’s the key to understanding these people. They are just not very bright, and cannot deal with complexity, hence the division into goodies and baddies that defines everything that they do.

  24. Hayne an OK judge from what I can recall.

    But he needs a good forensic accountant or economist as a co-Commissioner.

    Two much for one commissioner to do properly but that’s probably what the Govt wants – quick and dirty.

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