ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

Overwhelming support for a banking royal commission, but stable voting intention in the latest ReachTEL.

A ReachTEL poll for Sky News has Labor leading 53-47, unchanged from the last such poll on October 25. However, rounding would have had to have worked pretty hard to prevent Labor gaining a point: the primaries have the Coalition down one to 33%, Labor up one to 36%, the Greens up one to 10%, and One Nation steady on 9%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead in the forced response two-party preferred question is 52-48, compared with 51-49 last time. Also featured: 69% support for a banking royal commission, with 12% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,961 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  4. “The Gs, the bourgeois rad-puritans of the present era, should consider getting some dirt under their political fingernails and try to upset the Liberal Party in the leafier parts of the cities.”

    Actually, that would be a very useful and possibly rewarding task for the Greens. I’m thinking here of some if the leafier inner areas of our cities, like my electorate of North Sydney. It elected the decidedly green tinged independent Ted Mack for two terms, and he could have had more if he wanted them. Our current member is the openly gay supposedly small ‘l’ Liberal Trent Zimmerman*.

    A high profile Green could make it here. And maybe in Malcolm’s electorate. I’d vote strategically for him/her against the sitting “Liberal”.

    * He’s the member of the same party as Scott Vituperative Portmanteau, Tony Abbott, Eric Abetz and Peter Dutton. Lie with dogs… etc.

  5. Confessions/snap!

    They could put this quote on his political tombstone.

    “He is almost friendless. He has the charisma of a speculum.”

  7. TrogS,
    Not everyone is a rich bastard who can afford a plumber to manage simple every day events. (blocked toilet emoji)

    1. Poor attempt at deflection from the substance of your gutter-level attempt at ‘humour’ by equating Senator Dastyari with an unflushable turd.

    2. I am not a rich bastard. I rent where I live from old family friends.

    3. I am on a Septic system too.

    4. I just get on with unblocking it, when the need arises, with an old tree branch.

    5. I don’t use the event to equate it with Greens Senators. No matter how tempting the opportunity to do so.

    6. I still haven’t figured out why you ever thought that what you posted here the other night was funny?

  8. Steve 777….

    The LNP face ruin at the coming election, whenever it’s held. The Gs might share the plunder if only they campaigned against the LNP instead of Labor. The coming election is the time to do it.

  9. sprocket:

    Yes you don’t see Hunt with anyone. He’s always alone.

    Hockey had Cormann as a smoking buddy

    JBishop is always surrounded by people

    Even the odious Cash can summon girl power

    But for some reason Hunt is always alone
    https://www.google.com.au/search?biw=1366&bih=637&tbm=isch&sa=1&ei=rjQhWviFLJHX0gS2qo0I&q=greg+hunt&oq=greg+hunt&gs_l=psy-ab.3..0l10.37412.39000.0.39133.9.7.0.0.0.0.424.424.4-1.1.0….0…1c.1.64.psy-ab..8.1.422….0.4Lx5-3rXJMs

  12. Cat, Briefly and others.

    Do you talk like this campaigning?

    Seriously, do you want Green preferences in HoR or not? Don’t say they have nowhere else to go. They could easily abstain and just vote in the Senate.

  14. C@t
    Gosh.
    I also put a bob brown in there, not just a dastyari.
    I love Bob Brown.
    I was just trying to be even-handed.

  20. Goodness me!

    The Greens are now threatening to stop being the Prime Minister and the Greens Party Government and take their bat and ball home and not play anymore.

    The Great Barrier Reef is going to be in deep doo doo now for sure.

  21. sprocket_ says:
    Friday, December 1, 2017 at 10:01 pm
    New England tomorrow

    Yup…has to be at least a small chance that Joyce will lose….personal scandal, LNP disintegration, dismay in the face of disorder….

  23. A drover’s dog could win New England and would certainly get a higher primary than Joyce. The interesting question will be how much his primary vote falls compared to the last election.

    My bet is quite a significant lot.

  27. If the government was 5 seats up Barnaby would be gone, due to his campaign and by election swings, but after another glorious week by Turnbull fear will take hold and they will vote for him.
    Far worse than an incompetent lazy member is Labor and ‘the unions’.

  28. Though I can’t recall who posted it, the general tenor of his/her argument was that the Constitution is silent on parties, prime ministers, governments – true that is.

    It must be said, however, that the Constitution – a paramount act – meaning it can only be amended by referenda – is not a stand-alone document – and this is important. The Consitution, an Act of the UK Parliament, is amenable to the common law, Westminster/Washminster conventions. In short, it can’t be seen as a creed, witness, for instance, Mabo, the right of political discourse.

  29. The biggest omission from the bank-approved proposed ToR for the Royal Commission is the banks’ role in real estate. The ALP isn’t pushing hard on that because they are up to their necks in bad policy-making in that area themselves, and the ALP does have a habit of whoring itself out to banks and property developers. I think any changes to the ToR proposed by the ALP will be mostly cosmetic. The real problems – that the economy has been excessively financialized by policy decisions made by both LNP and Labor Governments, and that contractionary fiscal policy by both LNP and Labor Governments led to household debt growth becoming the only source of output growth – will be neglected.

  30. TrogS,
    Gosh.
    I also put a bob brown in there, not just a dastyari.
    I love Bob Brown.
    I was just trying to be even-handed.

    You love Sam as well!?! 🙂

  31. I’m still can’t see Barnaby losing tomorrow, even if he suffers an enormous swing against him. The Labor candidate got all of 7% last time around, and Rod Taber has proved a dud during his runs for the seat. Don’t know anything about the other independents running, so I suppose there could be another credible challenger, but I’d have figured we would have heard about them by now.

    Quite happy to be proved wrong tomorrow, however!

  32. Assuming Barnyard is returned is the safest course.

    But come on. Everyone really wants to see him lose and have his daughter start yelling at him as he’s being interviewed for tv that at least now he’ll have time to attend the pre natal classes.

  34. Asha Leu @ #1881 Friday, December 1st, 2017 – 10:20 pm

    I’m still can’t see Barnaby losing tomorrow, even if he suffers an enormous swing against him. The Labor candidate got all of 7% last time around, and Rod Taber has proved a dud during his runs for the seat. Don’t know anything about the other independents running, so I suppose there could be another credible challenger, but I’d have figured we would have heard about them by now.

    Quite happy to be proved wrong tomorrow, however!

  35. C@t
    I don’t love Sam, although I do think his stance on China has some merit.
    He’s a bit too much a product of the machine for my liking.

  37. Almost better than Barnyard losing on the night would be a super close result like some of the Qld seats where we don’t know if he’s gotten up for a week or so.

    Anything that sends the Nats completely out of their trees will be glorious to watch.

  38. TrogS,
    As I said earlier, you Greens just don’t get irony!

    And I wouldn’t go disparaging the Labor ‘machine’ too much if I were you. It’s starting to look to my eyes as if The Greens have started up their own sausage machine for candidates.

  41. ratsak:

    That would be delicious! If the result was unknown come HoR sitting the govt would be a seat down with Barnaby still on the sidelines!

  44. This supposedly is the No vote on the marriage equality bills that passed the Senate.
    :large

    I am shocked to see Fierrvanti-Wells on that list. I thought she was a Yes???

  49. I have made friends with the local (Wanneroo) voice of the AJP. I wish them well. Their candidate in NE is:

    WAGSTAFF, Skyla Shane Animal Justice Party

  50. ratsak @ #1887 Friday, December 1st, 2017 – 7:28 pm

    Almost better than Barnyard losing on the night would be a super close result like some of the Qld seats where we don’t know if he’s gotten up for a week or so.

    Anything that sends the Nats completely out of their trees will be glorious to watch.

    Even funnier still will be Brian Trumble trying to suspend parliament sitting until the result is known.

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