Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential Research polls on early election prospects and the next stage of same-sex marriage, and records little change on voting intention.

The latest Essential Research result appears to have Labor leading 54-46 (it says 52% to 46% in the report, but it also says there is no change). GhostWhoVotes was somehow able to relate that the primary votes were Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 8% (steady). The poll finds 47% saying the government should run its full term, compared with 37% who favour an early election. Thirty-six per cent said they expected Labor to win the next election, compared with 20% for the Coalition, and 18% for a hung parliament.

The poll also found 63% of the view that marriage celebrants should be allowed to refuse to officiate at same-sex weddings, with 27% opposed. Other related issues were finely balanced: 48% opposed the notion that businesses should have the right to refuse service to gay weddings, while 43% supported it; 42% supported parents being able to remove their children from classes that did not reflect a traditional view of marriage, while 44% were opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,860 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. guytaur @ #1510 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 10:06 am

    BarnsGreg: #Manus Dutton’s comments today are fueling hatred, violence and the media I have spoken to internationally is shaking its collective head in disbelief at his conduct.

    It goes beyond Dutton. When both major parties support what’s being done on Manus all of Australia deserves blame and condemnation for the shameful spectacle that’s unfolding there.

    Steve777 @ #1522 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 10:17 am

    New security and terror threats facing our nation will be outlined by @TurnbullMalcolm later today

    They’re going back to the ‘terrorism’ card, already? They’ve gone past desperate and are full on resigned to defeat, it seems.

  2. Crackpot TV. If you’re having lunch and need a laugh, try it: all the reasons the earth is flat.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RIBO7VB0VE

    P.S. There is an undiscovered continent in the South Indian ocean.I didn’t know about this continent before, but do now from watching the video above. Perhaps MH-370 is there instead of Diego Garcia?

    Hey, don’t shoot me down. Just askin’.

  3. the seats where the Greens are in play to win are predominately Labor seats

    Labor policies are too far to the right for those electorates. If Labor wants to win those electorates their policies need to move left, however that may cost them seats to the LNP. At the end of the day if Labor wants to form government they need to beat the LNP not the G’s.

  4. So do I presume that Mal the Magnificent will call a snap election in the knowledge that he will lose solely for the purpose of being able to be seen to step down graciously? Only to make way for young blood of course ;).

    Tom.

  5. I think the discussion on the Greens and environmental groups misses one of the major elephants in the room: the fact that since 1996, for all but six years, our federal government has been in the hands of a party which is packed to the brim with climate change deniers driven by blind ideology, and the strength with which fossil fuel companies and other big corporations have pushed against action on AGW. With or without the Greens, I’m having trouble envisioning a scenario where the post-Howard coalition is doing a damn thing about the environment.

    Sure, they may have *said* that they will – I can easily see Howard or Abbott or Turnbull making deals with environmental lobbies to legislate – but can anyone seriously suggest that the man who coined “non-core promises”or Mr. Don’t-Believe-Anything-I-Say-Unless-Its-In-Writing or Malcolm “I’ll turn my back on everything I once claimed to believe in if it makes me PM” Turnbull would actually follow through on said promises? I mean, our current PM previously wrote impassioned essays on the urgency of dealing with climate change. His predecessor continually touted his useless Direct Action policy as a solution to climate change. Even Howard agreed to implement some form of carbon reduction scheme in the lead-up to the 2007 election. All fell prey to either their own ideologies or that of the rest of their party.

    In a world without the Greens, Coalition governments and oppositions may well have agreed to all sorts of environmental demands in order to win or retain government. (Or they may not have, since ideology reigns supreme in the modern Liberal and National parties.) But I’m skeptical that they’d have much of any intention of following through on said promises upon winning said election, no more than Howard or Abbott followed through on so many of their empty promises made during election campaigns, and no more than Turnbull has actually stuck to his guns on the beliefs he espoused prior to becoming PM.

    In addition, we have been seeing increasingly push-back from big coal and other polluters against any sort of action, as the fight against AGW proves an increasingly existential threat against their entire existence, far more so than the environmental campaigns in the 80s and early 90s ever did.

    I concede that there probably is actually something to Boerwar’s argument about the effectiveness of replacing lobbying groups outside of parliament with actual political parties. And I certainly can’t deny how utterly tragic it is how little action there has been on AGW and other pressing environmental concerns. But it’s my own opinion that the two big culprits here are the environmental vandals so prevalent in state and federal Coalition governments and oppositions, and the big corporations so desperate to avoid losing even a cent from their bottom line in order to combat climate change. And posters such as Steve777 have astutely pointed out earlier, we can see the same unfortunate trends in countries such as the US and UK, neither of which have Green parties worth a damn.

  6. They’re going back to the ‘terrorism’ card, already? They’ve gone past desperate and are full on resigned to defeat, it seems.

    I keep seeing Mark Simkin whispering in Turnbull’s ear,”I always used to give terrorism a good run at the ABC. You should try it.”

  7. I’ll add too that calling people with different opinions on this matter “jihadists” has to be one of the most ludicrously over the top things I’ve ever read here.

  8. Zoomster

    Seems to be arguing that saying Western Sydney is more conservative because it has a large migrant population is untrue but then basically says WS is more conservative because it has a large migrant population. Or something…

    The ‘or something’ seems to be that the large migrant population are more religiously conservative.

    Fair f’ken dinkum … the author doesn’t seem to think that this is implicit in the first ‘proposition’.

  9. zoomster and CT

    Explaining Western Sydney in terms of ethnicity is wrong. It is religious conservatism in that ethnic area that is the reason for this.

    However its important to note that the Yes campaign was weakest campaigning in this area and the No campaign at its strongest.

    That done it is important to point out that there are ethnic people of all types in the other electorates and cities that had a majority yes vote.

    The only conclusion you can come to is that the No campaign amplified religious conservatism to the maximum in these communities. There is zero ethnic or general religious conclusions to be drawn beyond that. If you could we would have seen this no vote in more than 17 electorates.

  10. While they are clearly are most competitive in Labor seats, the Greens have snagged a few Coalition seats. They won Prahran from the Liberals in the 2014 Victorian state election, and Ballina from the Nationals in the 2015 NSW election. The LNP seat of Maiwar is also a possible Greens win in the upcoming QLD election.

    There are also quite a few federal Coalition seats where the Greens have become increasingly competitive and have sunk significant resources into, such as Higgins, Brisbane and Ryan. They are unlikely to actually win any of them at the next election, but I’d argue that it’s incorrect to say the Greens only target Labor seats, or that Labor seats they can win.

  11. Ides of March @ #1547 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 11:50 am

    I dont need dodgy modelling. I know West CONnex is dodgy.

    If the truth about WesCONnex is ever revealed I wouldn’t be suprised if it makes the Obeid saga seem like a Sunday school picnic in comparison.

    Also the NSW government is now giving tax breaks to overseas property developers. Such deserving recipients of government largesse.

    https://www.domain.com.au/news/overseas-property-developers-get-help-from-the-new-south-wales-government-20171123-gzr2j4/

  12. lanesainty: Turnbull on @workmanalice’s John Alexander story: “There is no place for joking about violence against women”. Says it’s a mark of JA’s character for acknowledging remarks and apologising

  13. guytaur

    Whilst not knowing much about WS demographics, there are ethnicities and ethnicities.

    So it would be wrong to say ‘all migrants are conservative’ but equally wrong to deny that ‘migrants from particular countries/religions tend to be conservative’.

    It is also a fact that migrants from particular countries/religions tend to live in similar areas (if you worship at a particular type of church, it’s nice if you live near it; if you eat a particular diet, it’s nice to be where you can buy the ingredients; if you speak a particular language, it’s nice to be in a place where the signage is in it).

    It is not racist, or anti any particular religion, or indeed denigrating people in any way to say “This area has a higher concentration of X ethnic or religious group, therefore it is more conservative”. It’s a fact, and it can be worked with.

  14. “or that Labor seats they can win” should read “or that Labor seats are all they can win.”

    It seems a ten minute edit window isn’t enough for me.

  15. I think this might have been referred to yesterday. The developer dollar on the Gold Coast.

    Also at risk are wild birds and other native wildlife, as the Council moves to concrete over parks and public land throughout the length and breadth of the Gold Coast.

    One example is the iconic Black Swan Lake in Bundall. Last year, the Council voted to give this public land (to) the Gold Coast Turf Club, so it could fill it in and build a car park.

    Said Val Shooter from Save Black Swan Lake, the Turf Club had tried to fill the Lake once before:
    “In 2014, without legal authority, the Turf Club tried to dump truck loads of fill on top of nesting swans but was stopped. The Turf Club chairman is general manager of an earthmoving business, Coastal Tipper Hire. So, we have no doubt which company would have got the contract to fill in the lake.”

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/tom-tates-developer-dollar-hunt-is-building-an-unlivable-gold-coast,10958

  16. I always thought the Gold Coast was a bit of a shit hole. Now I just know they are filling the holes with bad shit.

    No offence to any bludgers living there. Its not my cup of tea.

  17. zoomster

    I know. However I am pointing out it’s easy to fall into that trap. Especially with conservative types trying to embarrass Labor politicians by making out it is more conservative than it actually is.

    If those areas were as conservative as is being made out they would not support Labor at all.

    The No vote did win but the Yes vote was not just a whiff of smoke. As Tasmania has proved over time those conservative views do change.

    eg. Strathfield. Conservative Korean area. Electorate of Reid voted yes.

  18. Asha Leu

    Good points.

    Do you think it would be true to say that the Green vote more effectively preferences the Labor Party due to the use of How to Vote cards? That before the Greens formed these voters may have been more likely to preference the Coalition?

    If this is true, the formation of the Greens has the effect of making Labor Governments more likely.

  19. Before the cardinal was charged by Victoria Police in June, a book by ABC journalist Louise Milligan titled Cardinal: The Rise and Fall of George Pell was published.

    At an administrative hearing in Melbourne Magistrates Court on Thursday, Ms Milligan was called on to provide documents relating to her book and the allegations in it.

    The ABC and Melbourne University Press, which published the book, were also requested to provide documents, along with Victoria Police.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/cardinal-george-pells-defence-team-seeks-documents-from-abc-journalist-20171122-gzr6qb.html

  20. Asha Leu at 12.02:

    Zoomster’s point as to the environmental policy effect the leakage of environmentalists from the ALP to the Greens has had seems to me to be equally applicable to the LNP. For a time there was in WA a Liberals for Forests Party, such were the undoubted numbers of discontented Liberal environmentalists. Their loss from the Liberal Party to the LFP must have done wonders, not, for the push for environmental policies within that organisation.

    Of course, LFP was not the Greens, but its effects might have been the same.

    Re your post:
    [I’ll add too that calling people with different opinions on this matter “jihadists” has to be one of the most ludicrously over the top things I’ve ever read here.]

    Your comment here is self-parody. After all a sub-PB theme de jour are the adventures of a flat earth rocket man.

  21. The energy guarantee modelling released so far “confirms my worst fears”, Mr Koutsantonis told reporters, adding the scheme “is designed to guarantee more coal”.

    Of particular concern to South Australia’s Labor government is that the scheme would bolster the clout of the big “gentailers”, AGL and Origin Energy, which dominate generation and retailing in the state.

    “We need to smash their monopoly power into a thousand pieces, not entrench it,” he said

    …Victoria was more circumspect, as the Labor government there continues to analyse the information provided by Canberra.

    A spokesman for Lily D’Ambrosio, Victoria’s Minister for Energy, Environment and Climate Change, said the state was again “deeply disappointed” in the manner the energy guarantee modelling was “announced without consultation with the states”.

    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/worst-fears-states-prepare-to-highlight-the-negatives-in-turnbulls-energy-plan-20171122-gzqphl.html

  22. Windhover and Bukunin

    I do not really think Staples has really understood ALP/Green politics very well.

    Keating was always hostile to greenies from way back and indeed he coined the phrase ‘basket weavers of Balmain” Now in those days it was ALP left/right politics with the greenies (YES uranium and green bans were the big issues plus the Vietnam war) fighting to the death with the ALp old guard right. The core of the battle was EXACTLY as it is still, between Greens and ALP ie the older working class workers as the areas gentrified.

    In the 60s-80s, this battle was intense, between the dockworkers of Balmain and the “basket weavers” Now if you want to know REAL battles go read up on the Balmain branch battles. Now this was the ULTIMATE old labor versus greenie battle and led to attempted MURDER. Yes the famous Baldwin bashing was the direct result of the fight between the old style labor right wing and the Balmain trendies,all recruited to the left. The incentive for murder was of course $$$$$$ as the battle was between developers and greenies in Marrickville by the time of the Baldwin bashing but make no mistake it was largely and internal ALP fight.

    If anyone wonders why I take such exception to the anti green viciousness of many here (Briefly, Bemused, Cat, Ratsak, even Don) then yes I am thinking of you lot because I see in you comments that remind me very, very much of that old battle.

    The arrival of Keating into the treasurer’s role and as PM almost certainly triggered the emergence of the greens, since there was this intense and very, very, very bitter rivalry. Richardson as Environment minister did not help (although he actually did an OK job) but prior to that he was the instigator and main apparatchik of the anti green movement.

    So Boerwar, perhaps it was not so much the formation of the Greens party that slowed down the green movement but rather the take over of the ALP by the Greens phobic Rightwing.

  23. WTF is Saava trying to say?

    Everywhere he turns, someone is waiting to give Shorten a leg-up. First the leg-up from the Nats on banks, second the leg-up from the journos, then a third leg-up from Christopher Pyne announcing a new sitting schedule for the lower house, which scored a remarkable trifecta of own goals with a single strike.

    Is she claiming that Pyne is out to get Turnbull? That changing the sitting schedule was not something that Turnbull wasn’t a main proponent of?

    She then goes on –

    “It fortified the narrative of Canberra chaos, fed the perception that Malcolm Turnbull was frightened of his own backbenchers, and clouded his attempt to shift the focus back on to the economy with a pledge to cut personal income tax cuts.

    Saava says “it fortified a ‘narrative“… as though it’s just some minor problem that Turnbull has that will quickly pass!

    If all she is saying in this whinge is that Turnbull has stuffed things up so badly that the Liberals will probably not be able to avoid a split then that’s been fairly obvious since the last election and their position has just got more dire because Shorten/Labour are performing well, then we’ve noticed.

    Complete drivel.

  24. Moksha:

    I was four years old when the Greens first formed at a federal level, so I’m probably not really qualified to answer that one.

    I think it’s probably difficult to gauge how Labor would go without the existence of the Greens. On one hand, it’s certainly true that most Green preferences do go to the Labor party. On the other hand, you’d have to assume that most people who vote 1 Green, 2 Labor would otherwise just be voting 1 Labor or voting for some other left-wing party and giving Labor the second preference, particularly given the state of the modern Liberal and National parties.

    Likewise, you’d surely think any environmentalists who otherwise aren’t really left-wing wouldn’t be particularly eager to vote for the Coalition, especially post-2010, unless they were gullible enough to buy into Abbott’s direct action scheme or were hanging out for the “real Malcolm” to emerge after the 2016 election.

    As for those who do vote 1 Green, 2 Liberal (or National!), I won’t profess to understand even a lick of what goes on in their minds. I daresay many must either be filling in numbers at random or just not remotely politically engaged.

  25. Windhover:

    Your comment here is self-parody. After all a sub-PB theme de jour are the adventures of a flat earth rocket man.

    I must be a bit dense, as I’m struggling to see the connection between giggling at the antics of a flat-earther and suggesting that it’s rather hyperbolic to compare people debating on an internet forum to suicide bombers.

  26. As Tasmania has proved over time those conservative views do change.

    The thing I noticed about Tasmania is it seems to contradict a common observance that the higher the average education level, the lower the average religious participation. But the 2016 census found NSW was 66% religious compared to 53% in Tasmania.

  27. DTT at 12.36:

    Your post seems to be in search of a thesis. You conclude:

    [So Boerwar, perhaps it was not so much the formation of the Greens party that slowed down the green movement but rather the take over of the ALP by the Greens phobic Rightwing.]

    On your analysis the issue must be “What caused the take-over of the ALP by the GpR?”

    Boerwar gives you an answer, one that none of your post contradicts.

  28. Bushfire Bill @ #1550 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 7:54 am

    Crackpot TV. If you’re having lunch and need a laugh, try it: all the reasons the earth is flat.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RIBO7VB0VE

    I tried to take one for the team.

    23 minutes of 66!

    Please no more!

    My head hurts!

    Basically a lecture in ignorance, gravity does not exist and the atmosphere and perspective are the limiting conditions to how far you can see horizontally so if you had a powerful enough telescope you could see the ice cliffs at the edge of the disc.

    But supposedly there are temperate lands on the other side of the ice cliff, so where is the edge?

    AHHHhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  29. **The Gs biggest error has been to set themselves up as a purportedly left-alt to Labor**
    Hmmmm. Depends on what the aim is. If the aim is survival then it has merit. I am sure the disintegration of the Australian Democrats resonates with them – to survive they need a loyal base that would keep them above 10%. A base that they could hope to increase and wouldnt easily turn (or return) to either big party. So they choose to pilfer, like choughs, mostly from the ALP to satisfy this aim.

    I dont say this as a criticism of them – I am certainly no fan of the two party system – but I do wonder at the overall benefit to the environment of this tactic.

  30. AL, I was just amused that you should write, IMO with hyperbole, that “that calling people with different opinions on this matter “jihadists” has to be one of the most ludicrously over the top things I’ve ever read here.”

    The discussion of flat earth rocket man would seem to me to top your suggestion “for most ludicrously over the top things I’ve ever read here”, though you are free to disagree.

    If you agree then your own statement is itself over the top, perhaps ludicrously so, and therefore entitled to entry in that competition.

  31. Windhover:

    Ha, alright, gotcha. Yes, I suppose that was a bit unfortunately worded on my part.

    I think the difference with the flat-earther, though, is that no one posting on this forum is actually putting forth serious arguments in favor of a flat earth – we’re all just laughing at the idiot. It’s obviously a ridiculously over-the-top position to have, but said position hasn’t actually been advocated for on this website. Whereas the person calling the anti-Green Labor supporters here “jihadists” was, as far as I can tell, completely serious.

  32. SK

    Australia could do with a multiparty system. I understand the majors don’t want this.

    However, I think it would be much better for representation. I understand the Hare Clark system may be too much to do Nationally. However I do think particularly the Northern Scandinavian countries over decades have proved that multiparty systems do work well.

  33. guytaur Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 12:13 pm Comment #1559

    Explaining Western Sydney in terms of ethnicity is wrong. It is religious conservatism in that ethnic area that is the reason for this.

    I don’t recall WS in the context of this being described in ‘ethnic’ terms. I saw it said that many of the recent immigrants were ‘Muslim’ which is a religion. I don’t recall reading that, for example, many of the recent immigrants are ‘Arabs’.

  34. Asha Leu @ #1580 Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 – 12:41 pm

    As for those who do vote 1 Green, 2 Liberal (or National!), I won’t profess to understand even a lick of what goes on in their minds. I daresay many must either be filling in numbers at random or just not remotely politically engaged.

    I understand them. They are conservatives who salve their guilty conscience by giving their first preference to an unelectable Green.

  35. CT

    Not so. Some of the highest no voting areas have strong evangelical Christian not Muslim populations.

    If it was all about Muslims there would be more Muslim representatives in parliament by now

  36. Kevin – Are you there?

    Tasmania would be a good place to establish the effectiveness of How to Vote cards on Greens voters.

    In State elections, How to Votes are not permitted on election day, but in Federal Elections they are.

    The Legislative Council has single member electorates, and at least one of them have been Lab-Lib 2PP (mostly LC seats are won by independents, but this seems to be changing). The recent Pembroke by-election is the only example I can think of, but there may be more.

    It would be interesting to see if there is any change towards the Libs in the contests where HtV cards are not permitted.

  37. gt

    Not so. Some of the highest no voting areas have strong evangelical Christian not Muslim populations.

    I’m not going to persist on this but I say in that comment ‘FOR EXAMPLE’ then use ‘Arab’ as that example.

    I also actually considered using ‘Greek Orthodox’ as an example but thought one example was enough.

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