Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

Bill Shorten almost matches Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, as the Coalition cops its worst Newspoll result since February.

Newspoll breaks out of its long-established 53-47 to 54-46 rut by recording Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 54-46 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, Labor is up one to 38%, the Coalition down one to 34%, One Nation is up one to 10% and the Greens are down one to 9%. Malcolm Turnbull suffers a body blow on personal ratings, down two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 58%, and his lead on preferred prime minister all but disappears, now at 36-34 compared with 41-33 last time. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 53%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1625. Full report from The Australian.

UPDATE: The poll also finds Julie Bishop clearly favoured over Malcolm Turnbull to lead the Liberal Party, by 40% to 27%. Peter Dutton on 11%, being most favoured by One Nation voters on 24%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

860 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  3. guytaur @ #316 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 11:02 am

    The Christian right’s shocking conquest: Why religious moderates have disappeared from America
    While the number of religious Americans is in decline, evangelical membership is growing. Here’s what it means

    https://www.salon.com/2015/05/22/the_christian_rights_shocking_conquest_why_religious_moderates_have_disappeared_from_america/

    This is the battle for the Liberals. Are they going to see the lesson or are they going to follow this political model. The same one that Senator Bernadi and his like thinking Liberals are pushing.

    Bernadi’s time in the States was well spent, and we (incl LGBQTI et al, and incl people in socks and sandals for whom citizenship should be revoked and they be sent back to Brighton) coughed up the bill. He’s a smooth operator, playing a quiet hand so far. His first campaign be interesting.

  4. Steve777 says:
    Monday, November 13, 2017 at 11:33 am
    PREDICTION: Mathias Cormann Prime Minister by close of business 24th December [2017].

    Interesting. He’ll have 3 months to find a seat in the Reps (like Senator John Gorton).

    There are a few seats in WA where he’d be safe – Curtin, O’Connor, Moore and Tangney. Maybe, just maybe, Durack is possible too. I can hardly see any sitting member resigning to accomodate him.

  6. You gotta laugh

    Charles Croucher
    Charles Croucher
    @ccroucher9
    ·
    17m
    One Nation began this parliament with four seats in the Senate – two have been disqualified and a replacement has now quit.
    1

  7. I can’t remember who the Qld poster was who was concerned yesterday that PHON wouldn’t implode before the Qld state election but I bet they’ve got a grin on their face now.

  9. While hilarious about Anning and PHON, I still don’t agree with the ability of senators to defect from the party that got them elected in the first place, similar case with Bernadi.
    In the Reps it is fine, the individual is beholden to their constituency and were voted in as an individual.
    A senator is rarely elected on below the line votes.
    It does not respect the intentions of voters.

  10. Zeh

    I still don’t agree with the ability of senators to defect from the party that got them elected in the first place

    It’s all a bit suss, isn’t it.

  13. Yes Lizzie,
    When not elected below the line, the seat in the senate should be owned by the party, not the individual. A senator defecting should trigger another count-back (In most this would result in them losing the seat)
    I’d be interested to know what others think, because this to me is the most broken aspect of the senate.

  14. Briefly

    Maybe my local member Ben Morton (Tangney) could take one for the team and swap with Cormann.

    He has been pretty invisible since he replaced the odious Jensen and the one time I did see him speak in the Parliament I was less than impressed, given he is somebody touted as a future senior man.

    In reality I would think Cormann would prefer to be in the Senate, a place once described by Nick Minchin as the place where real power lies. And Minchin certainly wielded a lot of power.

  15. He’ll have 3 months to find a seat in the Reps

    There is no actual requirement that the PM be in the House of Reps, and certainly no time limit on when a move would need to happen by (beyond the fact that once they decide to move they would have to resign and be re-elected within that 3 months)…

  16. Hanson’s press release on Anning defecting (or defecating whichever you prefer) re One Nation is dated 13 November 2016.

    Is she prescient or really does not know what day it is as so many say.

  18. jenauthor:

    Monday, November 13, 2017 at 11:32 am

    Hilarious about Anning. Does beg the question for anybody in Qld voting ON – will their members defect once elected

    Most of them did last time One Nation got lots of MPs elected on Queensland.

    I imagine Bernardi is banking on One Nation inevitably imploding soon after the QLD election, and will then swoop in to pick up the scraps.

  19. Meanwhile

    Behrouz Boochani‏ @BehrouzBoochani · 55m55 minutes ago

    Three mobile police squad cars, six immigration buses and two trucks are in front of the prison camp gate. The refugees are extremely worried, any time they may attack.

  20. If what Fraser Anning has suggested is true, that is, that Pauline Hanson prevailed upon him to stand down from the Senate and let Malcolm Roberts waltz back in on the back of the Casual Vacancy, doesn’t that make Roberts’ candidacy in Logan just a stunt all along?

    Though now he has to own it as the Local Member for Logan and no more national stage, should he win.

    *Insert chuckling emoji here*

  21. VE,
    Yes you raise a valid point, and in the end, the absurdity of the senate and the broken-ness of some aspects probably leads to a more accurate reflection of the general public.
    I’m not sure if there’s a solution without either enforcing the party ownership of seats, or entirely removing the concept of ‘parties’ from the senate process completely, and have some other method for endorsement?

  22. Guytaur should see my posts of last night.
    I predicted their course of action last night.
    They’ll go through contortions to prevent a SSM bill passing under this govt. Including self destruction.

  23. @ Zeh – senator would simply ‘not’ defect, they would just cross the floor on every single vote and not turn up to party meetings.

    Then what, the party kicks them out?

    Who gets the seat then?

    If the Senator, then they have successfully defected and avoided your ban.

    If the party, then all senators have instantly lost the ability to ever cross the floor, as their party could take their seat. There then don’t even need to be 76 senators. Simply make 1 Labor senator with 30 votes or whatever.

  24. briefly @ #352 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 8:44 am

    Steve777 says:
    Monday, November 13, 2017 at 11:33 am
    PREDICTION: Mathias Cormann Prime Minister by close of business 24th December [2017].

    Interesting. He’ll have 3 months to find a seat in the Reps (like Senator John Gorton).

    There are a few seats in WA where he’d be safe – Curtin, O’Connor, Moore and Tangney. Maybe, just maybe, Durack is possible too. I can hardly see any sitting member resigning to accomodate him.

    Then its lucky for Corman that the Member for Forrest has come to the attention of s.44 isn’t it?

  26. C@tmomma
    I wonder if Cory Bernardi is an Italian Citizen by Descent?

    Cory Bernardi is a citizen of Cory Bernadi, and thus should be referred to the HC.

  27. In September last year, Aristotle implored the Turnbull government to remove asylum seekers from Nauru and Manus Island quickly or face the “high likelihood” that “many more men and women will express their despair by attempting to harm and kill themselves.” His concern was supported by a study by three mental health experts sent to Nauru and Manus by the UNHCR earlier last year. They found rates of depressive or anxiety disorders and post-traumatic stress disorder among asylum seekers and refugees on Manus Island “amongst the highest recorded rates of any surveyed population.”

    In stark contrast to what happened in 2005, the warnings were ignored. What is more, the bleak predictions of suicides have come to pass. Two suicides have been reported in recent months on Manus, bringing to six the number of asylum seekers who have died after being transferred against their will to Papua New Guinea. The two most recent deaths followed constant expressions of concern by fellow detainees and advocates about the adequacy of mental health services.
    …
    Mr Dutton needs to be asked how many of the refugees accepted by New Zealand during the Howard years have moved to Australia. The answer is that the overwhelming majority settled very successfully in that country and have no desire whatsoever to move here. The back-door argument simply doesn’t stack up.

    http://insidestory.org.au/how-to-avoid-a-violent-end-to-the-manus-island-stand-off/

  29. So One Nation has started its implosion before the Queensland election is finished. I hope Labor and the Greens hammer this in every presser.

    Is the porn shop owner still in the running? 😛

  30. PREDICTION: Mathias Cormann Prime Minister by close of business 24th December 12017.

    Now THAT’S patiently waiting his turn.

  35. PREDICTION: Mathias Cormann Prime Minister by close of business 24th December 12017.

    Bushfire Bill
    Now THAT’S patiently waiting his turn.

    “cybernetic organism. Living tissue over a metal endoskeleton.”
    Cyborgs are infinitely patiant

  37. I wonder if Cory Bernardi is an Italian Citizen by Descent?

    I’m sure he would love to be.

    Some of his photos are styled on busts of Roman senators such as Sulla.

    The Sulla one is funny, given stories over his homosexuality and staunch defense of the Republic, though he did revive the dictatorship to protect the morals of Roman society.

  40. PREDICTION: Mathias Cormann Prime Minister by close of business 24th December 12017.

    Bushfire Bill
    Now THAT’S patiently waiting his turn.
    “cybernetic organism. Living tissue over a metal endoskeleton.”
    Cyborgs are infinitely patiant
    ______________________
    He could be teleported rather than parachuted into a safe seat!

  42. Bushfire Bill
    Now THAT’S patiently waiting his turn.
    “cybernetic organism. Living tissue over a metal endoskeleton.”
    Cyborgs are infinitely patiant
    ______________________
    He could be teleported rather than parachuted into a safe seat!

    “Give me your seat, your votes, and the prime-ministership.”

  45. PREDICTION: Turnbull will hang on until the political gods suddenly decide to have a bit of fun with the other side, as inevitably happens. There’s a snap election and the government scrapes home, as happens more often than not.

    Still, it’s very enjoyable watching the current meltdowns over dual citizenship, marriage equality and One Nation – not to mention Roy Moore in Alabama.

  47. Sad as I am to say this, I doubt the Australian electorate will endorse Cormann as PM. As a senator, he is put top of ticket by his party and Lib electors get him whether they want him or not. Voting him into the lower house is a different matter.

    His accent will be off-putting to many regardless of his competence (I don’t say that lightly – I know the ramifications of such a statement but the level of bias/bigotry/racism/‘accentism’ in this country is such that I reckon he would crash and burn).

    Ideally, our country should not regard an accent as important but we will because he is, at times, difficult to understand.

    I also do not think he will want the poisoned chalice if he is as ambitious as many say he is.

  49. Grimace….Forrest is vulnerable to Labor….will be more so in a few years….

    I think the swap in Tangney suggested by rossm might work better…geez, they are desperate if they think Cormann might be a solution….quest for “safe hands”….

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