Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

Bill Shorten almost matches Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, as the Coalition cops its worst Newspoll result since February.

Newspoll breaks out of its long-established 53-47 to 54-46 rut by recording Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 54-46 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, Labor is up one to 38%, the Coalition down one to 34%, One Nation is up one to 10% and the Greens are down one to 9%. Malcolm Turnbull suffers a body blow on personal ratings, down two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 58%, and his lead on preferred prime minister all but disappears, now at 36-34 compared with 41-33 last time. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 53%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1625. Full report from The Australian.

UPDATE: The poll also finds Julie Bishop clearly favoured over Malcolm Turnbull to lead the Liberal Party, by 40% to 27%. Peter Dutton on 11%, being most favoured by One Nation voters on 24%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

860 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

Comments Page 7 of 18
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  2. farrm51: Where were senators Hanson etc when PHON’s Fraser Anning ushed in to be sworn into Senate?
    AWOL? No talkies w/ Anning?

    Hanson is presumably still running the ON campaign in Queensland because she doesn’t trust the Queensland leader of ON.

  3. Looks like ALP got everything they wanted with regards to citizenship

    What choice did Trumble have? Once the idiot came out threatening to refer ALP MP’s and accusing Labor or running a protection racket, he couldn’t possibly get away with demanding that his own mob of incompetents could hide their status until after the Bennelong by election. Once he came out and said that Keay et al’s belief that they had complied with the requirements of s44 as adjudged in Sykes he couldn’t get away with simply having his MP’s provide only parent details and a declaration that they believed they were gold. He’s an idiot and he got played again.

  4. rspca lets businesses use its logo (for a fee) for ethical treatment of animals.
    heart foundation lets businesses use its tick (for a fee) for healthy eating.

    we need a similar rainbow symbol or sticker that businesses can display on their doors/ website to let customers know that they do not discriminate be it sexuality, gender, race, religion, views etc. All welcome.

    Rainbow symbol can be monitored for non-compliance/ abuse as is done with other symbols, like rspa, tick, etc.

    I dont really want to give money to any business that discriminates and would rather pay more if I have to to one that does not.

  5. It looks like Turnbull woke up to the numbers in the HoR. If all five crossbenchers were to vote with Labor on referrals to the High Court, the coalition could be looking at Armageddon. Better to do a “deal” now rather than risk abject humiliation on the floor of the House.

  6. guytaur, the LNP cannnot afford to stuff around on SSM if the vote is a resounding YES, which I am positive it is.
    If the senate passes it on Thursday as been hinted at, then all Labor has to say is we agree with the Libs Dean Smith bill and will pass it.
    If the Libs try to eff around then Labor can rightly say to people of Aus that the Liberals and Nationals have just spent $122M of your money that could of been used for hospitals,education, or whatever to have a vote, the people have spoken,pass the bill or get out of the way and let the Australian people put in place a govt that will.

  8. “It looks like Turnbull woke up to the numbers in the HoR. If all five crossbenchers were to vote with Labor on referrals to the High Court, the coalition could be looking at Armageddon. Better to do a “deal” now rather than risk abject humiliation on the floor of the House.”

    They can still refer off the Labor members prior to the register being established if they want.

  9. guytaur @ #235 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 5:39 am

    cathywilcox1: I want to see bakers refuse to make cakes for people who disagree with the wearing of socks and sandals.

    I vehemently object!!

    There can be absolutely no reason for wearing socks and sandals together.

    They are the complete antithesis of each other, one is designed to keep the foot warm, while the other’s object is to maximise the cooling effect of unrestrained air flow.

    In Vietnam socks with a separate big toe are common.

    All of this is truly abhorrent, it insults scientific principals, common decency and I’m sure there is some biblical verse that condemns such behaviour.
    🙂

  10. samdastyari: THERE WAS AN INVALID VOTE in the Senate ballot to elect a new President. That’s right. Invalid. One job people. One.

  11. Full Royal Commission report into Child Abuse will be released soon.

    Possibly whilst the lnp are still ranting about evils of ME and associating it with pedophilia.

    pell, one of the biggest opponents of ME who assisted and pushed howard in outlawing ME in 2004 (but has been awfully quite on the postal survey) and is likely assisting howard in drafting the lnp (possibly Patterson) bill, is due for a another court hearing around the same time.

  12. @ Barney – I would refuse to host weddings for people that hate socks and sandals.

    Sandals are worn because they are quick to put on and take off.

    If you are already wearing socks, it is quicker to wear socks and sandals, than to remove your socks and just wear sandals.

    Socks with sandals also allows you to retain the benefits of sandals in late autumn and early spring, even winter in many parts of Australia.

    Therefore, in some situations, socks magnify the impact of sandals.

    I’m all in favor of comfort/convenience over appearances in the vast majority of situations.

  14. If my suspicions are correct we are going to have leadership tested in next few weeks. We will see a House election in January or February.

    So if my expectations of the polling continuing to be abysmal for the LNP we only have three and a bit months of this government to go.

    I so hope and cross my fingers that my suspicions and expectations prove correct and there is no black swan event to change things and that leadership change does not save this rabble.

  16. Boris

    Re the use of stickers for businesses that support ME, there are many businesses in Prahran where I work in Melbourne that have the Vote Yes / Rainbow stickers or signs in their windows.

    I suspect that these may be changed into something more permanent.

  17. lizzie @ #278 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 10:12 am

    Tony Windsor‏
    @TonyHWindsor

    Replying to @UrbanWronski @krONik

    I’m a supporter of the ABC but in recent years too many reporters are putting own spin on the news , not just reporting the news …will eventually lead to demise of public broadcaster if it wants to imitate Murdoch news.

    Got it in one Mr Windsor.

  18. The Christian right’s shocking conquest: Why religious moderates have disappeared from America
    While the number of religious Americans is in decline, evangelical membership is growing. Here’s what it means

    https://www.salon.com/2015/05/22/the_christian_rights_shocking_conquest_why_religious_moderates_have_disappeared_from_america/

    This is the battle for the Liberals. Are they going to see the lesson or are they going to follow this political model. The same one that Senator Bernadi and his like thinking Liberals are pushing.

  20. Disclosure. Good idea. Dec 1 allows ample time. There can be no excuse for failing to assemble any documents by then.

    If Nola Marino is a dual citizen, there will have to be a by-election in Forrest. It’s notionally safe. But the State election results and the latest polling suggest it is winnable for Labor.

  21. Guytaur:

    We will see a House election in January or February.

    As fun as that would be, I reckon the Coalition will hold on a bit longer. Even if they lose Bennelong and another couple of seats, I daresay they will be able to scrape together enough votes to avoid any motions of no confidence for the time being. They have McGowan, and they will probably manage to get Katter and Sharkie on side too (though Turnbull’s brilliance in the last few days may well have made the latter less likely).

    Turnbull’s gone though. My prediction is that Turnbull will be tossed out once the by-elections are all settled, and his successor will manage to claw onto power for at least another six months.

    And that will probably be better for Labor in the long term anyway. If the Coalition does go their full term, they may well be so toxic that they will be facing a NSW 2011 style wipe-out, and Labor would come into power with a much friendlier Senate than if a House-only election were held now.

  22. Socks Swordsand sandals.

    Sounds like 50’s movie starring Kirk Douglas.

    When I was just a wee little lad full of health and joy, no self respecting kid would wear socks at anything other than ankle height.

    I noticed, while watching the NRL football, one particular England player with his socks the correct height (they were in fact ankle socks).

    While I am here. Why are women so much more sensible then the men (not always).
    I refer to the cricketers. All the batswomen wear helmets with the wings at the back to protect against high flying fast balls.

    Most of the men disdain this sort of unmanly conduct.

    Why is it so Professor ❓ 😵😵😵

  23. “Each of them lodged a declaration of renunciation of British citizenship with the relevant UK authority before submitting their nomination for election, senior counsel Peter Hanks said.”

    As regards the ALP members who have “questions” over their eligibility.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/greens-to-support-high-court-referrals/news-story/b6f29ff18890e419c85fc1dbe312a02d

    Pretty much put them in the “reasonable steps” category i think. They knew their situation AT the nomination date and HAD taken steps to renounce. The timing of the confirmation of that, being totally dependent on how long it take the foreign power / bureaucracy to process the paperwork which the applicant has a completely reasonable expectation WILL be processed and the renunciation happen ….this is not Iran we are talking about…

    I cant imagine that the HC will disqualify someone on the basis of how long it takes a British bureaucrat to process a form, provided the process has been properly followed by the MP in question.

    If they were found to have fwarked up the application process and not followed the proper procedure maybe??? But i doubt thats the case in terms of the ALP members in question.

    LNP members in question..quite different circumstances. They are in a lot more bother since they appear to have just ignored a lot of this till being pinged on it. Some of the bullshit and spin about Libs outing themselves that the Libs are coming out with on this at the moment is egregiously re-writing history. I find that offensive.

  24. AL

    My suspicions are that there are enough govt HOR MP”s in breach that we will see Labor in majority.

    Especially if Labor wins one of the by elections.

  25. I agree with Asha on the senate bit – it would be better for ALP if there’s a slightly more favourable senate. My hope is also that ON starts it’s usual implosion soon (especially if it doesn’t do as well in Qld as all the media are trying to tell us). It would be hilarious if the ‘full disclosure’ tabling catches someone like Pauline!

  26. 5 Advertisers Dump Sean Hannity After He Defends Roy Moore On His Fox News Show

    Advertisers are fleeing Sean Hannity, and his Fox News show after Hannity defended Roy Moore’s sexual abuse of children.

    Hannity defended Moore by urging his viewers not to rush to judgement, and the backlash was immediate

    Fox News was desperate to take back the primetime #1 rating from MSNBC’s The Rachel Maddow Show, but what they are quickly learning is that it is better to be number two and be able to sell ads than be number one and losing money.

    Any Republican or conservative news outlet that defends Roy Moore is going to face a backlash. Advertising boycotts work because advertisers don’t want their brands associated with division and controversy. By supporting a sexual abuser of children, Sean Hannity has smeared his advertisers with a stain that will never come off. Hannity already lost advertisers after he embraced the Seth Rich conspiracy theory on his show, and one has wonder how more Fox News is willing to put up with.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/12/5-advertisers-dump-sean-hannity-defends-roy-moore-fox-news-show.html

  27. Bridge On The River Kwai fans will know what I’m referring to here.

    Turnbull: (wearily, with resignation) “I have already given the order.”

  29. Ex-Watergate prosecutor: ‘Maybe the North Koreans are right that Trump is a lunatic’

    Former Watergate prosecutor Nick Akerman said on Sunday that there are a number of possible explanations for President Donald Trump’s bizarre attack in which he smeared top U.S. intelligence officials as “political hacks,” and none of them are good

    Trump has shown himself willing to attack any and every person who questions or challenges him — except for Putin.

    “You’ve got to ask why,” Akerman said. “One: Is it that the North Koreans are right that the guy is a lunatic? Two: Is he in business with Putin? Three: Did the Keith Schiller testimony — revealing that in fact, Trump had been offered five women back in 2013 in Russia — do they have him blackmailed?”

    “All of these are valid questions at this point for investigators,” he concluded.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/ex-watergate-prosecutor-maybe-the-north-koreans-are-right-that-trump-is-a-lunatic/

  35. We’ve just seen a draft resolution that will be put to the senate, requiring senators to disclose details of their citizenship no later than 5pm on December 1.

    It requires senators to declare:

    that the senator, at time of nomination, was an Australian citizen
    that the senator is not a citizen of any other country
    the senator’s place and date of birth
    the citizenship held at the time of birth
    the place and date of birth of parents and grandparents
    whether the senator has ever been a citizen of a country or another country, and if so, which countries.
    the steps taken to assure that citizenship has not been inherited from a parent or grandparent
    the steps taken to renounce any foreign citizenship
    If the senator has been a citizen of another country at any time, they will be required to disclose:

    details and evidence of the date and manner in which the senator’s citizenship of the other country was renounced
    if it has not been renounced by the date of nomination to the senate, evidence will need to be provided of the steps that has been taken to renounce the citizenship prior to the date of nomination

    If you squint really hard you might find a word or two that weren’t in Labor’s demands to Trumble.

  37. So One Nation has started its implosion before the Queensland election is finished. I hope Labor and the Greens hammer this in every presser.

  39. This a$$hole got $ 90-100 million for doing Trump’s dirty work – I hope he gets 20 years in the slammer …

    Trump Campaign’s Digital Director Says He Didn’t Know Russian Bots Were on Twitter During the Election

    The man behind President Trump’s unexpectedly successful digital operation says didn’t realize he was retweeting Russian bots during the 2016 presidential campaign.

    Brad Parscale, who served as digital director for Trump’s campaign last year and now runs a pro-Trump Super PAC, said he was not aware of Russian operatives on Twitter, Facebook or any other platform that might have been acting to influence voters. During the campaign, Parscale and other Trump campaign officials retweeted a tweet about media bias from a handle disguised as that of Tennessee Republicans.

    Parscale also downplayed the role the British psychographics firm Cambridge Analytica played in helping the campaign, saying it helped with research, strategy and fundraising. However, he said the company, which is currently under Congressional investigation for Russian connections, did not help with ad creation and also denied that the Trump campaign ingested data from sources outside of the RNC.

    http://www.adweek.com/digital/trump-campaigns-digital-director-says-he-didnt-know-russian-bots-were-on-twitter-during-the-election/

  40. Here is a link

    BK is spot on.
    political_alert: “Malcolm Robert’s replacement, Fraser Anning has abandoned the Party to stand as an independent”, says @PaulineHansonOz #auspol pic.twitter.com/Go9q1lXMp2

  42. BK says:
    Monday, November 13, 2017 at 11:22 am
    It’s official!
    PHON announces that Fraser Anning has defected from the party.
    How delicious!

    They may hope for One Nation. One Party would be a start.

    Evidently Hanson asked him to stand aside for Roberts; naturally, he declined. Anning is recorded saying he would expect the same loyalty from Hanson as he had shown her. He clearly doesn’t expect to be told how high to jump by the petite dictatorship that runs PHON.

  44. PREDICTION: Mathias Cormann Prime Minister by close of business 24th December [2017].

    Interesting. He’ll have 3 months to find a seat in the Reps (like Senator John Gorton).

  45. JA has until the 23rd to get his confirmation back from the Home Office that he’s no longer a son of Blighty.

    Seems to be talking very confidently about the Pomgolians getting back to him toot suite.

    Gee wouldn’t it be a remarkable coincidence if your ordinary joe blow candidates can’t get the the Poms to acknowledge receipt of the paperwork for two weeks, but a second member of the government can get everything tickety boo in just a couple of days.

  46. Happy days on PHON falling to bits. 🙂

    And on the Citizenship proposal. Does this set up a situation where IF a member documents what they consider to be “reasonable steps” by Dec 1, Parliament, rather than the HC can decide if those steps were in fact reasonable? Any dispute over that could be referred to the HC for a definitive decision, but if Parliaments decision took into account HC precedent it could be an effective and timely way of dealing with this rather than everything having to get sent off to the HC??

  48. MurrayWatt: One Nation implodes AGAIN. How can Tim Nicholls possibly form Government with these people? twitter.com/ccroucher9/sta…
    ccroucher9: Well that didn’t last long. New One Nation Senator Fraser Anning is no longer a member of One Nation. pic.twitter.com/3q0RWKZIGG

  49. BevanShields: Cory Bernardi is in the Senate claiming one senator knows they “haven’t fully informed the Senate” of their dual citizenship #auspol

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