Some Section 44 and recent preselection news to kick off a sorely needed new federal politics thread:
• The Australian Electoral Commission will today push the button on Senate recounts mandated by the High Court to determine replacements for Fiona Nash (New South Wales, Nationals), Larissa Waters (Greens, Queensland) and Scott Ludlam (Greens, Western Australia). It is a known known that this will result in the election of, respectively, Hollie Hughes, Andrew Bartlett and Jordon Steele-John. The first of these raises a complication in that Hughes is from the Liberals rather than Nationals, which upsets finely calibrated provisions of the coalition agreement.
• Tasmanian Liberal Senator Stephen Parry’s Section 44-related vacancy is set to be filled by Richard Colbeck, the highest placed unelected candidate on the Liberal Senate ticket last year, in keeping with the established precedent of dealing with disqualifications by recounting the votes as if the disqualified member had not been on the ballot paper. Colbeck was a Senator from 2002 until his defeat in 2016, which followed his dumping from top of the ticket in 2013 to fifth place. This was widely seen as an exercise of power by Senator Eric Abetz against the only Liberal MP in the state who had supported Malcolm Turnbull’s challenge to Tony Abbott. Many Liberal voters rebelled against this arrangement by voting for Colbeck by the line, although he failed to match Labor’s Lisa Singh achievement in defeating the party colleague listed above him.
• Parry’s departure also opens a can of worms in that a recount would not just result in Colbeck being elected in his stead. As a recount from the published raw data conducted by Grahame Bowland shows, the vagaries of below-the-line preferences are such that the final spot would be won not by Greens Senator Nick McKim, who made it to the final seat by a margin of 141 votes, but by Kate McCulloch of One Nation, who on the new count would finish 227 votes ahead of McKim. As Kevin Bonham explains, it is debatable whether the High Court would indeed declare McKim retrospectively unelected, or if it would deem his election beyond its remit on the grounds that only Parry had had his election annulled by disqualification (the latter being Antony Green’s view).
• An earlier report on the Tasmanian Liberals’ Senate preselection in The Mercury indicated Claire Chandler, a risk adviser at Deloitte Australia, had emerged as a challenger for the next election to incumbents Jonathon Duniam and David Bushby. Chandler could potentially lay a strong claim if only by promising to break the persistent male domination of the Tasmanian Liberals’ federal contingent, which stood at seven out of seven before three lost their seats in 2016.
• Voting is to open this Friday on the preselection for the Greens Senate preselection in New South Wales, in which incumbent Lee Rhiannon faces a challenge from state upper house MP Mehreen Faruqi. According to Sean Nicholls in the Sydney Morning Herald, this is being a viewed as a challenge by the party’s moderate tendency, associated with Faruqi’s Legislative Council colleague Jeremy Buckingham, against Rhiannon’s hard left faction.
• The Guardian reports that “Greens internal processes” appear to encourage Senators to make way for their preselected successors before their election, by vacating their seats and having them fill the casual vacancy. On this basis, Larissa Waters, who has confirmed she will again seek preselection after losing her seat to the vagaries of Section 44, may replace her designed successor, Andrew Bartlett, following a preselection to be held over the coming months. However, Bartlett appears non-committal as to his own longer term aspirations. The report also notes that Lee Rhiannon might be expected to relinquish her seat to Mehreen Faruqi if she loses the New South Wales preselection discussed above.
Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports that Lucy Mannering, a Commonwealth Bank lawyer and ex-wife of former Australian Workers Union national secretary Paul Howes, is emerging as a potential compromise candidate for Labor preselection candidate for the Sydney seat of Banks, which the party uncharacteristically lost in 2013 and 2016. The preselection has loomed as a contest between Chris Gambian, a union official favoured by the CFMEU, and Paul Garratt, who has the backing of the Maritime Union of Australia, of which he is an assistant secretary. Another potential contender is Jason Yat-Sen Li, a Chinese community leader and unsuccessful candidate for Bennelong in 2013.
lizzie @ #98 Monday, November 6th, 2017 – 10:38 am
Do you have C+ installed?
All is working fine for me and there are 2 methods available to expand the comment box.
1. Drag LHS bottom corner.
2. Click on icon to right of ABC icon at top left of comment box.
bemused @ #101 Monday, November 6th, 2017 – 10:43 am
Umm Drag RHS bottom corner.
PhoenixRed
There is this to consider
Renato Mariotti
@renato_mariotti
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12/ If you check out @mflynnJR you’ll see many recent tweets attacking Mueller. It’s common for defendants to attack the prosecutor.
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Renato Mariotti
Renato Mariotti
@renato_mariotti
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13/ It’s fairly unusual for them to do that before there are charges. It suggests that Flynn Jr. knows he’ll be charged and refuses to flip.
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Renato Mariotti
Renato Mariotti
@renato_mariotti
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14/ That tells me that Flynn and his son expect a pardon. Publicly attacking the prosecutor is a foolish move otherwise.
Money Over Lives: The NRA Invested Over $50 Million In Trump And GOP Candidates In 2016
If you’re wondering why Republican leaders refuse to act after such unspeakable violence, just follow the money.
According to OpenSecrets.org, the National Rifle Association forked over more than $50 million to key Republican candidates in 2016, including Trump.
“The gun rights group placed multimillion-dollar bets on Donald Trump and six Republican Senate candidates locked in highly competitive races,” the OpenSecrets report noted. “It poured $50.2 million, or 96 percent of its total outside spending, into these races, and lost only one.”
This level of NRA spending is nothing new either. As the report continued: “Over the three prior election cycles, the group disbursed $1 million dollars or more toward 14 congressional races, and achieved its desired outcome 11 times. To help Republicans win back the Senate in 2014, it spent $20.6 million dollars on five key races in the upper chamber, and in each of them, its preferred candidate won.”
As we continue to learn more about the tragedy in Texas, there will likely be more calls from Democrats and other common sense politicians for tougher gun laws. American citizens should join them and tell their own representatives to act.
But the disturbing truth is this: As long as Donald Trump is president and Republicans have complete control of Congress, these voices are likely to be drowned out.
To them, body counts don’t matter so long as the NRA checks keep cashing.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/05/money-lives-nra-invested-50-million-trump-gop-candidates-2016.html
C@t:
Good luck!
A Suggestion to WB.
Instead of displaying the Ladbrokes odds on the side, which are really quite embarrassing for them, a better partnership for them could be you either giving them odds to use, or teaching them how to do their job.
Labor is ahead in polling in Qld, Vic, SA. Yet Ladbrokes puts the Liberals as favorites.
I can empathise in Qld. They think that ON will have an impact on the election. It’s easy to get confused with the shitty state of media in this country.
But the other two they have no excuse.
Fess
So how big is your Comment box? Mine only takes 2 lines.
lizzie @ #65 Monday, November 6th, 2017 – 6:44 am
I was having similar problems to others with the new thread. A simple refresh has managed to cure whatever the problem was.
Recent events in the middle east sort of highlight the circumstances where dual citizenship can be a real problem.
Apparently Hariri the recently resigning PM of Lebanon is dual Saudi/Lebanese citizen and chose (making his resignation speech from Saudi Arabia. Given the Sunni/Shia divisions in Lebanon this is relatively significant and clearly shows a level of Saudi influence in Lebanon that I was not aware of at all.
It is this sort of potential problems that our s 44 should reduce. Put it this way, we know Abbott was at one time a dual UK citizen. He clearly had links with some of the RW of the UK Tory party. Had he made his PM resignation speech from UK the connections would be obvious.
lizzie:
My comment box is as big as it needs to be – can hit enter 8 times and on the ninth it automatically expands.
A reminder of Malcolm’s brilliance.
victoria says: Monday, November 6, 2017 at 10:47 am
PhoenixRed
There is this to consider
It suggests that Flynn Jr. knows he’ll be charged and refuses to flip.
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From what I have read, Victoria – the expectation is that Flynn Snr will spill his guts to save his son …..
I dare say given a Mueller choice of *extended time* in Rykers Island Penn or Leavenworth or flip of what you know ……that Flynn Jr won’t have the same bravado as he is showing at the moment
Tom WinterVerified account @Tom_Winter 9m9 minutes ago
NEW: Texas DPS says the suspect had a ballistic vest and had numerous weapons in his vehicle. They do not disclose a motive.
lizzie @ #107 Monday, November 6th, 2017 – 10:55 am
Bemused has replied to this. As has Confessions.
If you have a look at the bottom right hand corner of the comment box youw will notice a little triangle series of dots. You can put your cursor on the dots and drag the comment box left or right.
C+ is now at 0.8.7 for anybody interested.
😎 ☕
KayJay
Thanks for replying in plain words. :kiss:
If true this is a shocking statistic and says quite clearly that governments, both state and federal can no longer afford not to respond in legislative terms.
PhoenixRed
That is my expectation too. But interesting to see what others think
KayJay @ #114 Monday, November 6th, 2017 – 8:01 am
EDIT: Don’t worry about it. Problem seems to have fixed itself.
kayjay:
Wow I hadn’t noticed that little triangle before. Thanks for that. 🙂
lizzie @ #71 Monday, November 6th, 2017 – 11:04 am
I often tend to overexplain because one cannot see the other persons computer, or indeed, the level of frustration, lack of good coffee, knowledge etc.
My computers currently using C+ are working just fine. The quote function is simply excellent, the block function is sitting there unused (but “at the ready jefe”) should a suitable occasion arise).
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When will we know if Parry is to be referred to the High Court or if his replacement will be elected by Tas parliament as usually happens with resignations?
Given that the church shooter Kelley was an Air Force veteran and firearms enthusiast who served on active duty between 2010 and 2014 and received a dishonourable discharge after facing a court martial in May of 2014, there is no way the massacre will be afforded terrorism status in the US.
John Webster says:
Monday, November 6, 2017 at 11:17 am
Parry’s situation is like the Greens.
Any referral won’t happen before the Senate sits again.
If the Libs refuse to refer it and try and treat it as a casual vacancy, I think you’ll find that Labor and the crossbenchers will combine to refer it.
BK @ #122 Monday, November 6th, 2017 – 10:17 am
Of course not. The shooter was white; that means it was just a “mental health issue”. Only scary brown people can do terrorism.
BK:
He’s white which automatically rules out terrorism.
Plus what AR said.
KayJay @ #114 Monday, November 6th, 2017 – 11:01 am
It would appear Lizzie ignores anything I post which is strange given the number of times I have posted something to help her.
Is the desire for self imposed ignorance contagious?
At the last election we had a Victorian senator wishing to be re-elected called Ricky Muir. Down to earth sawmiller from Gippsland. He was building a following and many people I know were going to vote for him.
Just before the election he came on telly showing how a lever action multi shooter shotgun was not an automatic and should be legalised. He was also advocating that silencers should be legalised.
Many of my friends decided not to vote for him there and then. They have memories of Port Arthur, which were reinforced regularly by gun massacres in the US, and didn’t want liberalisation of gun laws in any shape or form.
I tend to agree with the Tweets victoria put up. The Flynns have a nod and a wink from Trump that he will pardon them even if convicted.
Barney in Go Dau @ #123 Monday, November 6th, 2017 – 11:23 am
Why would it be referred to the HC when he has already accepted his situation?
It is rather like a ‘guilty’ plea so there are no issues to be determined.
Confessions @ #111 Monday, November 6th, 2017 – 9:58 am
I can see the problem there. You can’t have the legislative branch appointing the head of the executive branch; that’s not proper separation of powers. I’d have voted against that formulation of the question too.
The head of state would need to be directly elected, not appointed by Parliament.
ar
One minor issue with C+ I have encountered is that if I click on a link to a previous comment that I have commented on, I go back to the first page.
Might be same with any link, but I haven’t tested.
I wonder what Ricky Muir has to say today?
Seems to me the shootings have increased since Trump stepped in, certainly the number of people killed.
Duran Duran might have added;
… they pass gun control laws!
Idiots!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvNrQtU6ehI
@ C@t – if Trump is going to pardon them, he would be advised to do it from the Russian Embassy, so he can seek sanctuary there afterwards.
a r says:
Monday, November 6, 2017 at 11:23 am
BK @ #122 Monday, November 6th, 2017 – 10:17 am
Given that the church shooter Kelley was an Air Force veteran and firearms enthusiast who served on active duty between 2010 and 2014 and received a dishonourable discharge after facing a court martial in May of 2014, there is no way the massacre will be afforded terrorism status in the US.
Of cause not; he didn’t have beard.
Fess
I follow the tweets of this lawyer who has a lot to say on pardons etc.
https://mobile.twitter.com/lauferlaw
bemused says:
Monday, November 6, 2017 at 11:39 am
The Court of Disputed Returns, HC, is needed to order a recount.
If it isn’t referred then it would be treated as a casual vacancy.
a r @ #131 Monday, November 6th, 2017 – 11:40 am
The head of the ‘legislative branch’ is, and would have remained the Prime Minister.
A two thirds of the members of parliament requirement to appoint the President as ‘Head of State’, to perform similar duties of the Governor General, would tend to make the appointment bi-partisan and relatively non-controversial.
Bear in mind the GG is currently appointed by one person, the Prime Minister, and we have had some appalling choices made.
So when is the AEC pushing the button on the recount?
AR:
Turnbull got totally played by Howard on the republic issue. At the time of the debate there was a reasonable level of support for the idea of Australia becoming a republic, but the govt instead reframed the debate around the model of a republic, not the simple question of whether Australia should become one.
PeeBee @ #128 Monday, November 6th, 2017 – 11:37 am
Muir was only pointing out the facts about that shotgun so I agree with his point about that.
But I don’t agree with his conclusions.
If that shotgun was to be banned, then it should be banned for what it is, not for what it isn’t.
Thanks vic. He seems to have quite a bit to say on the matter.
Barney in Go Dau @ #139 Monday, November 6th, 2017 – 11:47 am
OK, I overlooked that.
So the hearing would presumably just be a formality to order a recount.
Fess
He does have a lot to say on the subject. Basically, he doesn’t believe that the traitors and co conspirators will get away with these crimes.
VE,
Senate Recounts, TODAY!
Bemused
Not quite.
Parry will be found by the High Court not to have been eligible so there will be a recount. If he resigns it is a casual vacancy.
Obviously once referred to the high court which meets as the court of disputed returns, the case would be easy and quick and probably not contested – ie Parry submits documents which the court rubber stamps and declares the election null and orders a recount. One judge and a 40 minute hearing.
Regarding information to assist with the blog and comment box.
I was simply inviting a fellow poster to have a look at other posts and was not making or implying any criticism.
I am off to see my wonderful GP later today (as is Ctar1, I believe). I am hoping and expecting a good report on the ultra sound heart test last month.
😵 Dizzy face from trying to work whether I should do my washing today or should I read more of my current book – “Glass Houses”.
Hmmm. “Glass Houses ” wins. Washing tomorrow.
As I support parliamentary democracy I certainly would not have voted for a Republic in which the President was elected by popular vote but retained the powers of the Governor General.
If we are to remain a parliamentary democracy there are two options:
1. strictly define and limit presidential powers and have a popular vote. This is the Irish model, although it should be added that in Ireland the nomination process is so strict that effectively candidates must have the support of a major party
2. Election by parliament of which there are numerous examples including India and Germany