Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings deteriorate still further amid an otherwise stable result from Newspoll.

Newspoll retains its comatose form in its latest fortnightly result, with Labor steady on 37%, the Coalition down a point to 35%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 9%, and Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on 54-46. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have worsened, down one on approval to 31% and up three on disapproval to 59%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 32% and up one to 56%, with Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister at 41-33. Poll courtesy of The Australian; numbers helpfully related by GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

568 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. I see a number of bludger don’t want the phone when they get the NBN. If that is you, make sure you ask for a price for your NBN service WITHOUT a phone. No point in making your RSP richer at your expense.

  2. grimace:

    My preference is to stay with Telstra. I’ve not heard good things about IINET even pre NBN so would never go with them. Same with Optus, they are constantly having outages here.

  3. I still have voice mail on my landline, which sends a text to my mobile. Occasionally someone I want to (or have to) talk to might call me. But it’s nearly all marketing calls that don’t leave a message, so I don’t call back. I blocked the most persistent (top 20).

  6. “Tim Nicholls: “Queensland in the 1970s wasn’t hamstrung with too many rules and regulations.”

    And the criminal elements in the National Party weren’t hamstrung by the police enforcing the laws they did have either. The good old days, National Party style. When every minister left office a millionaire thanks to some “good investments”. No doubt, Tim wants that back.

  7. A tech guy from Telstra told me their modems will have a SIM card in them. So when the copper fails, it automatically switches to the wireless system (4g). It is seamless to the user, but Telstra is more reliable than other RSPs in keeping the service going.

  8. Confessions @ #501 Monday, October 30th, 2017 – 7:06 pm

    grimace:

    My preference is to stay with Telstra. I’ve not heard good things about IINET even pre NBN so would never go with them. Same with Optus, they are constantly having outages here.

    The ‘T’ name is a dirty word in my house and I swore off them about 10 years back after a couple of bad Bigpond experiences and a couple of months of getting screwed around by Telstra corporate on a site upgrade we were doing.

    It seems iiNet has gone rapidly downhill from a quality standpoint since being bought out by TPG in 2015 and I’ll be looking for another ISP if/when NBN gets connected here.

    If anyone has any suggestions, the NBN website says I’m getting FttP and I’m happy to pay more for a premium service.

  10. Emma Alberici actually congratulates Matt Canavan on “your return to the ministry”, and then asks him what he reckons is wrong with the Palaszczuk government in Queensland.

    Over to you, Matt, says Emma (he’s on the side of “jobs” and the “coal-fired power sector”, don’t you know?).

  11. Steve777 @ #491 Monday, October 30th, 2017 – 9:53 pm

    I think Kevin was right about the ‘drag back’ to the conservatives in actual elections as distinct from polls. Labor has scored 53% 2PP in a real election only once since WW2 (i.e. Hawke 1983). Then whatever the score is at the end of election night is depressingly whittled away in postals in the following 10 days. Labor needs to go into the election with at least a 52 lead, preferably 53.

    That was true in Rudd’s day, but not at the last election.

    Back then we had polls go out to 60-40, even though actual Federal elections rarely got outside 53.5%.

    If the current polls were out to 57 or 58% for the ALP I would agree there would be an inevitable “narrowing”, but on recent polling behaviour I think if an election was held right now the ALP would get somewhere between 53-54% TPP, just as the polls have it.

    This is actually a bit annoying. I expect people to be more fickle when doing a poll, and I want them to blow out and “narrow”. That’s why I quite liked Morgan, because you could see event’s play out in the numbers, even if sometimes you knew those numbers were never going to actually happen.

  14. grimace:

    Interesting you mention TPG, I had a letter from them on Friday telling me why I should sign up with them for the NBN:

    TPG was awarded the #1 NBN provider as rated by customers – Canstar 2016 NBN providers award.

    But what made me laugh was they offer 3 speed options to choose from the slowest being 5 to 12 Mbps and the fastest being 12 to 100Mbps which is what I have now at a higher cost than what I’m now paying!

    No wonder people are complaining left right and center about Malcolm’s Fraudband! It’s a joke!!

  17. No wonder people are complaining left right and center about Malcolm’s Fraudband! It’s a joke!!

    Kevin17 said on qanda that the NBN ballsup is the number one issue that had been raised with him as he toured the Queensland regions last week.

  18. Q&A didn’t annoy me, which was a bit of a surprise. Tingle seems to be getting a more realistic about Turnbull, the subject material meant Jones was mainly talking about things I kind-of agree with him on, and Judith Brett seems like a very sensible person.

    There was just one point, where Rudd had made a rather lengthy preamble, and was just getting to the point, when Tony interrupted him. But only having 1 “Shut-up Tony” is a good score and he did a good funny at the end. Rudd did hold-forth a bit, but it didn’t annoy me.

  20. C@t:

    Yes I’ve heard that about the switch over time. I’m hoping that come 18mths time some of these problems will have been ironed out.

  21. Before I call it a night. Paul Manafort and an associate who worked on Trump campaign are first off the blocks in the Trump imbroglio

  22. @Confessions and others re NBN:
    Westnet and Internode went from being shining beacons of ISP service to being absorbed into iinet and (eventually) joining the bottom feeding Borg empire known as TPG. The business model adopted and voraciously exploited by TPGF is based on controlling the demographic which mostly uses the internet for email, facebook and basic browsing. Those customers rarely need support, rarely complain and are consequently very profitable. Complainers get bounced to offshore call centres which are so frustrating that complainers churn to a better ISP. That actually suits the TPG model – knowledgeable, tech savvy users aren’t profitable.

    As a result, the non-business grade NBN services offered by TPG are among the worst for CVC choking, caused by TPG purchasing insufficient bandwidth. That is the main reason many copper-based NBN services seem slower than the previous ADSL.
    One of the reasons is due to the connotations of one word: unlimited. The only way an ISP can profitably offer ‘unlimited’ accounts is by limiting CVC.

    I can highly recommend Aussie Broadband in WA, including down your way Confessions. Aussie constantly monitors CVC at every POI and dynamically adjusts as needed. The company also provides excellent support. In WA, Aussie peers with the same local (state) services as Westnet and routes directly to the Singapore junction instead of via eastern states for Asian and European traffic. Aussie has installed its own gear in every NBN POI – that’s how the company constantly monitors the CVC in every POI.

    Also, Aussie doesnt offer unlimited deals. That’s a GOOD thing.

    My NBN speed tripled when churning from Westnet to Aussie. I’m on fixed wireless in the Margaret River/Yallingup region. Current speed as I type this (8pm, which is peak) is 36Mbps. In my case, the difference from the 50Mbps I pay for is due to tower congestion, not CVC. Many of the fixed wireless NBN towers need upgrading to cope with peak congestion. That’s caused by the NBN skimping on infrastructure, not ISPs. There is nothing an ISP can do to remedy congested towers.
    During offpeak (i.e. excluding 5pm – 10pm) my speed is usually 48Mbps.

  23. C@tmomma @ #516 Monday, October 30th, 2017 – 11:04 pm

    No wonder people are complaining left right and center about Malcolm’s Fraudband! It’s a joke!!

    Kevin17 said on qanda that the NBN ballsup is the number one issue that had been raised with him as he toured the Queensland regions last week.

    I am seriously thinking that if unlimited phone data becomes reasonably priced before we get the NBN (I don’t think our area is due for ages), then I might tell the NBN to get stuffed.

    That is the problem with the NBN, they have made it so crap that wireless may be able to compete, which in turn will erode NBN revenue.

    So much for a ubiquitous, equitable, quality service and the social and economic benefits that would give.

  26. Completely concur with Sir Pajama Pudding. Aussie Broadband are, currently, very good. The Whirlpool denizens, for what it’s worth, seem to think so too.

  27. Sir Pajama:

    Very illuminating! Thanks for that, and no way was I ever swayed by the ‘unlimited’ offer. Talk about snake oil salesmen.

    I’ll check out Aussie broadband – I’ve never heard of them before now though.

  36. Finally found a place to live in Melbourne that’s close to my work and am now settled in, but I’ve just discovered I am in Adam Bandts electorate. I might have to start campaigning for the Labor candidate Sophie Ismail, she seems like a much more suitable representative and she has the added bonus of belonging to a party that could actually form a government.

  39. Paul J. Manafort, Jr., 68, of Alexandria, Va., and Richard W. Gates III, 45, of Richmond, Va., have been indicted by a federal grand jury on Oct. 27, 2017, in the District of Columbia. The indictment contains 12 counts: conspiracy against the United States, conspiracy to launder money, unregistered agent of a foreign principal, false and misleading FARA statements, false statements, and seven counts of failure to file reports of foreign bank and financial accounts.

    http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/30/politics/indictment-manafort-gates/index.html

  41. AR

    It can be argued that the principle of charging for CVCs is sound. Rather the problem is the actual scale of the charge.

    The other problem with CVC charging is that it was intended to fall (per Mbps) over time as people use more data. The problem is that FTTN means people use less data. Hence CVC charges remain higher to compensate.

  44. cud chewer @ #543 Monday, October 30th, 2017 – 11:49 pm

    AR

    It can be argued that the principle of charging for CVCs is sound. Rather the problem is the actual scale of the charge.

    The other problem with CVC charging is that it was intended to fall (per Mbps) over time as people use more data. The problem is that FTTN means people use less data. Hence CVC charges remain higher to compensate.

    It can be argued, but I think it would work better if CVC charges were simply rolled into AVC charges. It shouldn’t be possible for an ISP to under-provision CVC for their allocated AVC user-base. CVC provisioning should be automatic, based upon AVC capacity.

    Maybe you offer some broad SLA/tier options (like 50%, 80%, and 100% of AVC, or whatever makes sense and scales well as AVC grows) and clearly publish which ISP is on which tier, but don’t charge ludicrous per-Mbps rates for capacity and leave it up to ISP’s to provision their own capacity independently of their AVC user-base. It makes no sense, and enables precisely the sort of under-provisioning issues that we’re seeing with NBN service providers.

    A well-designed system doesn’t feature such an obvious and easy to trigger failure-mode.

  45. My guess Manafort and or Gates charged first suggests big chance Mueller thinks one of them will turn prosecution witness in return for some remissions. Buy popcorn futures while this develops.

  46. Incidentally in my humble little town of about 10,000 people which started off as a bunch of farms, there is a core section that got redeveloped into suburban lots back in the 80s thanks certain Councillors owning certain blocks of land. And to protect themselves they created a rather arbitrary zoning system that relegated the rest of the town to 1 and 2Ha lots.

    Where I live is right at the edge of town. Confined by National Park and water supply catchment (water storage reservoir). The area around me was mostly 20Ha or larger. Those larger lots recently got subdivided into smaller 1 and 2Ha lots.

    Now, back under Labor, the NBN was going to cover almost the entire town with fibre, except for my little corner. And then they were going to provided 4G dedicated wireless for my place and the few houses around. However at that stage the subdivisions started happening and I argued with NBNco to bring greenfield fibre to the new lots and at the same time also bring fibre to the older houses on the periphery of the new subdivisions.

    Along came Turnbull and all that flew out the window. Initially the town was going to get FTTN and my end of town would get satellite. So FTTN would reach a lot about 500m away. Then they discovered that my town is fully of shitty old copper and that FTTN would have meant relaying it totally. So, now they are going to do FttC. Meanwhile the subdivisions around my house are spouting new houses. FttC should be extended into the new subdivisions and (since I’m surrounded by them) to my house. However, NBNco is relying on old maps and doesn’t actually know there are new houses.

    These houses all have brand new copper running past them of course.

    But wait, it gets even weirder. With FttC for 95% of the town and the shutdown of the copper network, the copper around me, including the brand new copper to the subdivisions next door will (so far as I can tell) be shut off. Otherwise you end up with the crazy situation where this little enclave of copper is still powered by an exchange connected by 5Km of cables through a FttC serviced area.

    The owners of new houses in this subdivision are discovering that ADSL doesn’t work, or works poorly. They are also getting leaflets offering satellite service that is more expensive and offers less data than the current crop of standard mobile 4G plans. Pretty soon now they will figure out that their landline will be disconnected. The solution of course is to convince NBNco to extend FttC and complete the coverage for a town that is geographically confined by National Park, swamp and water catchment area. In other words it has nowhere physically to expand.

    But, getting NBNco to sit up and realise that there are a bunch of new houses on this edge of town, and actually do anything about it, with their current attitude? Funny haha!

    This saga doesn’t end until Labor gets back.

  47. Norwester:

    Talk of Manafort turning state’s evidence has been mooted for some time now. I’m more interested in who else is turned out in this investigation.

  49. Campaign adviser George Papadopoulos pled guilty to false statements etc. Geoffrey Toobin thinks he is cooperating with Muellers investigation.

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