BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

Labor bites and holds its poll trend gain from last week, and Essential Research unloads a set of state voting intention numbers.

The one brand new poll for the week, from Essential Research, made so little change to the BludgerTrack voting intention numbers that I had to double check the result. There was also an infusion of new state breakdown data courtesy of Newspoll’s quarterly state-level results, but the only difference this has made is to add one to the Coalition tally in New South Wales and subtract one in Queensland. There’s big movement in Malcolm Turnbull’s favour on the leadership trend rating following new numbers from Essential Research, but this measure is over-sensitive to the vagaries of particular pollsters, which I’ve long been meaning to correct for. Full results at the bottom of the post.

Essential Research has also released its quarterly state voting intention results this week, which are accumulated from all of its polling over the past three months. In New South Wales, the Coalition has a steady lead of 51-49; in Victoria, Labor’s lead narrows from 53-47 to 52-48; in Queensland, Labor holds a steady lead of 54-46, which is better than they have been doing from other pollsters lately, with One Nation’s primary vote at a relatively modest 13%; in Western Australia, Labor’s lead is down from 55-45 to 54-46; and in South Australia, Labor has a steady lead of 52-48, with the Nick Xenophon Team’s primary vote at 18%. Read all about it here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,349 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 27
1 2 3 … 27

  3. Pyne says the government can’t be blamed for the sloppy cyber security of its sub-contractor that led to hackers stealing 30 gigabytes of commercially-sensitive data.

    Exactly the same type of argument they denied the Rudd government when a number of deaths resulted from sloppiness by the sub contractors installing the pink batts. Hypocrites.

  4. Barney in Go Dau (Block)
    Friday, October 13th, 2017 – 8:44 am
    Comment #49

    Don’t be silly, you say.

    How dare you. How else would I get through the day, although the comedy festival playing at the High Court has revived my spirits tremendously.

    à votre santé

    Is Go Dau something like “Go the Wallabies” ❓

  6. Darn
    Pyne says the government can’t be blamed for the sloppy cyber security of its sub-contractor that led to hackers stealing 30 gigabytes of commercially-sensitive data.
    Exactly the same type of argument they denied the Rudd government when a number of deaths resulted from sloppiness by the sub contractors installing the pink batts. Hypocrites.

    Did the Government receive countless emails and complaints about the dodgy contractors like they did with the pink bats fiasco, and mate young people died.

  7. William,
    “Essential Research has also released its quarterly state voting intention results this week.. in Victoria, Labor’s lead narrows from 53-47 to 52-48”.
    Essential clearly shows Labor at 54-46 in Victoria.

  8. Sohar @ #57 Friday, October 13th, 2017 – 9:01 am

    William,
    “Essential Research has also released its quarterly state voting intention results this week.. in Victoria, Labor’s lead narrows from 53-47 to 52-48”.
    Essential clearly shows Labor at 54-46 in Victoria.

    Difference may be due to Quarterly average vs latest read from the numbers?

  9. themarkjacka: The Hackers who stole 30GB of our Top Secret plans must have been very patient. It would have taken months to download it on our NBN.#auspol

  10. Is it only me or has Greg the little lying Hunt gone all Trump Orange.

    I noticed it on TV last night and then again this morning.

  11. [KayJay
    Barney in Go Dau (Block)
    Friday, October 13th, 2017 – 8:44 am
    Comment #49

    Don’t be silly, you say.

    How dare you. How else would I get through the day, although the comedy festival playing at the High Court has revived my spirits tremendously.

    à votre santé

    Is Go Dau something like “Go the Wallabies” ❓]

    I thought it was pretty good plan with some minor flaws. 🙂

    With my appalling grasp of Vietnamese I have absolute no idea what a Go Dau, /go yow/, is apart from being the place I currently live.

  12. Kay Jay,
    Good to see you back to your witty best. : )
    Brown Bear is a tonic, it seems, and must be the best of bearish company.

  13. michaelkoziol: Radio host asks Turnbull how his morning is going: “I’ve been out kayaking on Sydney Harbour, where I live.” #auspol

    and you plebs don’t.

    The Trumble is such a stupid…

  16. [guytaur
    themarkjacka: The Hackers who stole 30GB of our Top Secret plans must have been very patient. It would have taken months to download it on our NBN.#auspol    ]

    Alternately they had fttp which should make them easy to find.

  17. Morning all. How’s this for an indication of how jacked US justice system is.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/12/opinion/texas-robert-pruett-execution.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

    Not only does Texas have the death penalty, but this then 15yo was sentenced to a 99 year prison term because Texas law decrees that anyone who “solicits, encourages, directs, aids, or attempts to aid” a person who commits a crime is equally liable, no matter small his or her role. The kid was with his father when his father stabbed to death a neighbour even though he didn’t kill the person.

    It’s whacked!

  18. Steelydan @ #56 Friday, October 13th, 2017 – 5:57 am

    Darn
    Pyne says the government can’t be blamed for the sloppy cyber security of its sub-contractor that led to hackers stealing 30 gigabytes of commercially-sensitive data.
    Exactly the same type of argument they denied the Rudd government when a number of deaths resulted from sloppiness by the sub contractors installing the pink batts. Hypocrites.

    Did the Government receive countless emails and complaints about the dodgy contractors like they did with the pink bats fiasco, and mate young people died.

    Man Haron Monis emailed the Attorney General and got ignored, despite having a long history of violence, and went on to initiate the Lindt Cafe Seige.

    And when national security goes wrong, you need an accountant to keep track of the bodies, not one hand.

  19. C@tmomma @ #62 Friday, October 13th, 2017 – 9:04 am

    Kay Jay,
    Good to see you back to your witty best. : )
    Brown Bear is a tonic, it seems, and must be the best of bearish company.

    Thank you, young lady.

    I used to do the bit about giving CPR to person who collapsed in the street turning out to be John Winston Howard.

    The sheer horror of it all.

    Brown Bear is wonderful. He pays no attention whatsoever to my doings – a real inspiration.

  20. [C@tmomma
    …

    It’s the kind of colour you get from crawling up into tight spaces. ; )]

    I thought it was from getting pissed on by RWNJs all the time?

  23. “I’ve been out kayaking on Sydney Harbour, where I live.”

    Do security staff follow him around the Harbour in kayaks as well?

  24. If Howards thing was always about being photographed in an Australian tracksuit running in the morning is Turnbull really wanting his to be known as kayaking Sydney Harbour outside his mansion?

  25. [Confessions
    “I’ve been out kayaking on Sydney Harbour, where I live.”

    What an odd qualification. Or is it a justification?]

    Or rubbing it into the listeners’ noses, me thinks.

  26. When will our brave 4th estate put it to the Libs bemoaning Abbott that maybe they should have been a little less keen on his lies and inconsistency that have long been damaging to the country a bit before he turned his guns on them?

  27. [Steve777
    “I’ve been out kayaking on Sydney Harbour, where I live.”

    Do security staff follow him around the Harbour in kayaks as well?]

    They’re probably in a police boat towing him, so he doesn’t raise too much of a sweat.

  29. grimace

    What a silly argument Haron Monis should not have been out on bail. The Lindt Cafe Seige inquiry found many areas were authorities failed. I don’t remember them talking about an email to the attorney general banging on about Allah being one of the key points.

  30. [Confessions
    Barney:

    That’s how it comes across, which is why I wonder why he’d even say it.]

    Probably to distract from the questions.

    By the way, what was the interview about?

  34. grimace

    What is it about the left and personal responsibility and accountability do you proportion any blame on Monis. I hope you don’t walk around thinking the Lindt Cafe murders as being the Governments fault.

  36. Please no more talk of Channel 7 and the Morning Show.

    Foolishly I switched on the TV (to Channel 7) and was immediately regaled with somebody asking Mr Turnbull about a secret review saying that Bill Shorten cost the Labor Party the 2016 election.

    Mr Turnbull then said and I quote “♫La de da ♪de da♫”.

    What was the interview about. Why, the pretty young lady on screen’s knees, of course ❗

    Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ 😍 Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ

  39. CNN Politics
    5 mins ·
    The leaders of the House intelligence committee are warning that President Donald J. Trump associate Roger Stone will be slapped with a subpoena Friday if he does not reveal the name of his intermediary with WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.

  42. Kind of mixing up two difference concepts here – negligence and manslaughter:

    [We owe it to the victims of these tragedies and their loved ones to ensure Queensland has strong industrial manslaughter laws to protect people on the job backed by strong penalties for employers proven to be negligent].

    It is regrettable that the coronial inquiry has not started – to allow a situation of grief, protracted limbo, new grief is terrible

  44. antonbruckner11 @ #46 Friday, October 13th, 2017 – 8:37 am

    Newsflash: Federal Government allows Private Health Insurers to offer more dud policies to the mugs. Who the hell wants to pay for public hospital insurance so that you get a choice of your own doctor. Don’t make me laugh

    2nd Newsflash: ABC’s AM program spends almost half its running time promoting this policy.

  45. [shellbell
    Kind of mixing up two difference concepts here – negligence and manslaughter:    ]

    Is that necessarily a problem or does it make it more difficult to prosecute?

  50. BIGD

    Negligence could be any act showing carelessness. Manslaughter, depending on what the act says, would involve knowing of a risk and courting it

Comments Page 2 of 27
1 2 3 … 27

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *