YouGov-Fifty Acres: Labor 35, Coalition 34, Greens 11, One Nation 9

Gains for Labor in the latest YouGov poll, as private polling records solid support for One Nation in the Hunter region.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for FiftyAcres is more conventional than its previous efforts in that the major parties’ share of the primary vote has increased, with Labor gaining three points to 35% without biting into the Coalition’s 34%. Of the others, the Greens are down a point to 11%, One Nation is steady on 9%, the Nick Xenophon Team is down one to 3%, “Christian parties” are steady on 3%, Katter’s Australian Party is steady on 1%, and others are down two to 3%. Despite Labor’s improvement on the primary vote, two-party preferred is unchanged at 50-50 due to weaker respondent-allocated preference flows to Labor, of 67% from Greens voters, 22% from One Nation voters and 50% from the rest. With preference flows more like last year’s election, at which Labor got 82% of Greens preferences and 49% of everybody else’s, Labor would lead 54-46.

Also in the poll:

• Malcolm Turnbull has a 37-29 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, compared with 34-27 last time. A high “not sure” result has been a feature of the pollster’s form in this area.

• Head-to-head questions on leadership attributes found Bill Shorten leading Malcolm Turnbull 30-17 for being in touch with the concerns of ordinary Australians; Turnbull leading 28-20 on being a strong leader; and Shorten leading 24-22 on sticking to what he believes in. For a lot more of this sort of thing, I had a paywalled article on Crikey which placed the detailed leadership attributes polling of Essential Research into broader perspective.

• Support for same-sex marriage was at at 59%, with 33% opposed. Eighty per cent rated themselves likely participants in the postal survey compared with 13% for unlikely, but there are no breakdowns for the yes and no camps.

• Sixty-six per cent favoured the proposition that “Australia should move towards more alternative energy source (e.g. wind or solar)” over an alternative, that “Australia should continue to use coal-fired power stations”.

• Forty-three per cent of respondents thought it likely a country would be attacked with a nuclear weapon during their lifetime, compared with 44% for unlikely.

Elsewhere:

• Progressive think thank the Australia Institute has polled the Hunter region seats of Hunter and Shortland, to gauge the impact of AGL’s decision to close the locally situated Liddell coal-fired power station. On two-party preferred, Labor holds respective leads of 60-40 and 58-42, which compare with 62.5-37.5 and 59.9-40.1 at the last election. The other story is that the primary votes show the One Nation well into double digits in both seats. After including results of the follow-up prompt for the undecided, primary votes in Hunter are Labor 44.1% (51.8% at the election), Nationals 21.9% (26.3%), Greens 7.3% (7.1%) and One Nation 15.8%. In Shortland, the results are Labor 44.8% (51.2%), Liberal 26.5% (35.2%), Greens 7.8% (9.5%) and One Nation 14.3%. Despite everything, the poll finds more support than oppose AGL’s decision, and that renewables are heavily favoured over coal. The polls were conducted by ReachTEL on Friday and Saturday nights, from respective samples of 714 and 643. Full results from GhostWhoVotes.

Sky News reports that polling conducted by the “no” campaign has support for yes down over the first ten days of the campaign from 67% to 60%, although there’s no insight into how this was conducted or by whom.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,776 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Labor 35, Coalition 34, Greens 11, One Nation 9”

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  1. AndrewBrownAU: The High Court judgement on Malcolm Roberts is in…and it doesn’t look good for the full hearing pic.twitter.com/Qs5ag14BFO

  2. Guytuar, the facts are settled in Roberts. May be different for the others – only Nash, Xenephon are caught by the British process to renunciate, the others not.

  3. How can it be!

    “I’m confused – high court seems to imply Malcolm Roberts is in trouble but Paul Murray was clear – he’d seen his papers and it was all ok”

  4. Roberts may choose to believe that global warming and the international zionist banking cabal have infected Keane’s brain.

    It stands to PHON reason.

  5. sprocket

    From my reading the case turned on he was a citizen at the time of nomination.

    The court ruled he knew.

    Thats a bit more certain than not taking reasonable steps.

    I think thats whats not looking good for Joyce and Nash. Reasonable steps.

  6. Swamprat

    1974 Roberts knew he was a Brit, so the judge finds. He lied about it, saying he thought he “was always Australian” hence never could be a dual citizen.

    Sorry, Malcolm, you’re gone.

    But because his facts are so out there, I don’t think we can draw firm conclusions on the others. Fiona Nash getting booted would be worth a flutter on Sportsbet

  7. The thought occurs to me that both Greece and Turkey laid claim to Cyprus when it was under British control.

    Could it be that in addition to UK as the occupying power claiming Xenophon as their own by descent, Xenophon could be claimed as a citizen of either Greece or Turkey or both?

  8. Not condoning violence but just because the alleged ‘attacker’ was wearing a Yes badge doesn’t equate with his motivation for wanting to head-but dear Tones – there would be lots of other reasons he may have felt the need to do so.

  9. Guytuar

    The ‘reasonable steps’ test is pivotal to everything which is happening with S.44, as it was laid down in Sykes vs Cleary. Read the last few pages of the judgment.

  10. Lord Haw Haw of Arabia

    His reasons…

    .. headbutted former prime minister Tony Abbott in Tasmania has declared it had “nothing to do” with same-sex marriage but was about his “personal hatred” of the ex-PM.

    Astro Labe, a 38-year-old DJ and anarchist from North Hobart, told News Corp he considered Mr Abbott a “f—ing worm” and that he “wanted to nut the c—“, but not because of same-sex marriage.

    All it was is I saw Tony Abbott and I’d had half a skinful and I wanted to nut the c—.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/it-was-nothing-to-do-with-samesex-marriage-anarchist-dj-who-headbutted-tony-abbott-speaks-out-20170922-gymu2z.html

  11. [Fulvio Sammut
    The thought occurs to me that both Greece and Turkey laid claim to Cyprus when it was under British control.

    Could it be that in addition to UK as the occupying power claiming Xenophon as their own by descent, Xenophon could be claimed as a citizen of either Greece or Turkey or both?]

    X has renounced his Greek and Cypriot citizenships, it’s the more obscure British one that’s got him in trouble.

  12. I believe Australian senators get paid a minimum of $200,000 per annum to sit their fat arses on the red leather and deliver islamic theological decisions (about which they know nothing) :-).

    Un-bloody-believable.

  13. Lord Haw Haw of Arabia @ #1514 Friday, September 22nd, 2017 – 5:44 pm

    Not condoning violence but just because the alleged ‘attacker’ was wearing a Yes badge doesn’t equate with his motivation for wanting to head-but dear Tones – there would be lots of other reasons he may have felt the need to do so.

    As I suggested earlier, maybe he worked for Optus.

    Or perhaps an enthusiastic customer? 😛

  14. poroti
    Lord Haw Haw of Arabia

    His reasons…

    .. headbutted former prime minister Tony Abbott in Tasmania has declared it had “nothing to do” with same-sex marriage but was about his “personal hatred” of the ex-PM.

    Astro Labe, a 38-year-old DJ and anarchist from North Hobart, told News Corp he considered Mr Abbott a “f—ing worm” and that he “wanted to nut the c—“, but not because of same-sex marriage.

    All it was is I saw Tony Abbott and I’d had half a skinful and I wanted to nut the c—.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/it-was-nothing-to-do-with-samesex-marriage-anarchist-dj-who-headbutted-tony-abbott-speaks-out-20170922-gymu2z.html
    ******************************************
    Lovely, as I thought. Sadly it is unlikely to get much air time…

  15. [bemused
    swamprat @ #1510 Friday, September 22nd, 2017 – 5:42 pm

    thanks bemused… ….you mean in 1974 he was both a pom and an Oz?

    He was just a Pom until he became an Aussie citizen and then he was both.]

    A report submitted to the hearing claimed that Roberts was still an Indian citizen until he took out Australian citizenship.

    So he has always been a duel citizen first India and the UK then Australia and the UK.
    🙂

  16. I must admit to being surprised the Abbott incident actually occurred.

    I fully expected he made it all up or it was an inside job with a local Young Lib or the like involved.

  17. 🙂

    Duncan Watson‏ @DuncanWatson8 · 18s19 seconds ago

    NASA up to no good again. First they falsify climate change data. Then, when Malcolm calls them out, the swine infiltrate the High Court.

  18. Guy involved in the alleged assault of Abbott says it had NOTHING to do with Same Sex Marriage.

    So it did happen but Tony Abbott perverted it’s nature for the benefit of the No camp.

  19. [lizzie

    Duncan Watson‏ @DuncanWatson8 · 18s19 seconds ago

    NASA up to no good again. First they falsify climate change data. Then, when Malcolm calls them out, the swine infiltrate the High Court.]

    Just proves how good they are at manipulating data. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  20. Astro Labe said that he was just an anarchist who decided to head butt Abbott because he thought he would never have the opportunity in his life again. : )

  21. It will be great if Labor NZ win the election even if in coalition tomorrow.

    What a bad week it will be for the conservatives if that happens

  22. What I’m amazed by is the Conspiracy knew all along that they could bring Roberts undone by setting up and then disabling those email addresses and that by planting Mailer Daemon they could trick Roberts.

  23. Good h’evenin my Lords, Ladies and Gennermen.

    Good trip for heart ultrasound scan today.

    Arrived late and were fortunate that the senior executive daughter managed to get a duplicate referral after mislaying the first. Note the clever way I have blamed the staff (daughter).

    Nothing obviously untoward as nobody called an ambulance and I now await a chat with my friendly and very competent GP in about a months time.

    I cannot say that I am displeased with the HC decision regarding Mr. Roberts.

    The cherry on the top for me today will be, if in the NRL game later this evening, both Melbourne Storm and Brisbane Broncos lose.

    And so to rest. Good night all. 😻

  24. I suspect Abbott may get quite a bit more attention from copycat anarchists. Who doesn’t want to give Abbott a piece of their mind!

  25. Richard Chirgwin‏ @R_Chirgwin · 4m4 minutes ago

    Every journalist who ran with Tony’s “A Yes campaigner butted me” willingly shovelled bullshit to their public, and this matters.

  26. Lizzie,
    Abbott based his whole assertion on the fact that the guy had one of those peel off stickers for the Yes campaign on his jacket. Which his friend had put there only a half hour before.

    Astro Labe said that he was no campaigner.

Comments are closed.

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