Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Leads for Labor and same-sex marriage have both narrowed in this week’s Essential Research poll.

The Guardian reports Essential Research has an unusual two-point movement in favour of the Coalition in its fortnight rolling average, cutting Labor’s lead from 54-46 to 52-48. No word yet on the primary vote. The other big finding from the poll is that support for same-sex marriage was recorded at 55%, down four points on a fortnight ago, with opposition up three to 34%. Once again though, supporters report higher likelihood to vote, with yes leading 59% to 37% among those who said they had voted already. Other questions find belief in climate change caused by human activity up four points since February to 60%, with only 24% favouring the alternative option of “we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the Earth’s climate”, down one. Other questions rate to cost of living concerns (topped by utilities and housing) and wage increase (52% said they had not received one in the past year).

UPDATE: Full results here. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 38%, Labor is down one to 37%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is down one to 8%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

533 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  5. Crowdfunding update:

    ‘No’ Skywriting – $5385 in 6 days, 67 supporters
    ‘Yes’ Skybanner – $15700 in 2 days, 557 supporters (now across four nigh-identical campaigns, ffs)

    ‘Yes’ still desperately needs to get its organizational act together, but is clearly well out in front by any other metric.

  6. [BK
    Has anyone seen any arguments against a SSM YES vote from any source other than a religious body or religious zealot?    ]

    I haven’t seen an argument from them either.

  9. Five SSM survey forms delivered to the Markjs household today ..five ‘YES’ boxes ticked & forms posted back..

    My prediction FWIW is for a 61% ‘YES’ result ..then the ‘fun’ will begin!!

  11. GG apparently thinks that the Roman Paedophile Protection Society is a christian organisation, and that it exemplifies christian values. I disagree. The real christians that I know and respect, and in several cases, am very fond of, are nothing like that.

  15. Tim Beshara‏ @Tim_Beshara · 6m6 minutes ago

    Everyone should stop celebrating birthdays because it wasn’t traditional in part of the Middle East two thousand years ago

  16. Re YouGov, I don’t find 33% of Green Preferences going to the Coalition all that credible. I see no reason why it wouldn’t be the 17-18% as in recent elections, even less given that the Coalition seem to be abandoning any pretence of taking climate change or any environmental issues seriously. I had always assumed that the 17% were donkeys, uninformed or the Liberal-voting mothers of Green candidates.

    So if the Greens preferences go 82% to Labor, that would bump the Labor 2PP to 51 or 52 rounded.

  18. [lizzie
    Tim Beshara‏ @Tim_Beshara · 6m6 minutes ago

    Everyone should stop celebrating birthdays because it wasn’t traditional in part of the Middle East two thousand years ago]

    There’s Xmas gone.

    That’s because they were such an advanced culture that they couldn’t work out the Sun.

  19. @GG

    Actually you started it 5:21 by saying yes needs a reality check when they don’t.

    Your attitude against the yes campaign speaks louder.

  23. Prefs won’t be hugely different at the next Federal election. Definitely not to the extent of the 50-50 and even 51 to the Libs that YouGov are getting.

    Yep. The idea that the L-NP have improved since the election is simply not plausible.

    At least Yougov are beginning to get the primaries looking better.

  24. GG @6:23PM. The employer who fired a staff member for voting “No” has acted illegally if it was an employee relationship. Anyway, what’s your point? Someone found a yes voter behaving badly? That’s like climate change deniers accusing climate campaigners that they’re wrong because they drive, fly and use electricity. A weak form of the ‘hypocrisy fallacy’.

    Try to convince us that we should vote “No” (too late for me, I struggled the 200m or so to the post box).

  27. ‘Essential Research has an unusual two-point movement in favour of the Coalition in its fortnight rolling average, cutting Labor’s lead from 54-46 to 52-48.’

    ‘YouGov steady at 50-50, but Labor are up three on the primary vote to 35% and the Coalition steady on 34%. ‘

    There’s movement at the station… in several directions at once…

  28. Folks

    I put the envelope with the ‘yes’ inside into the red tin box today.

    I would appreciate it if the GG camps, pro- and anti-, put a sock on it…
    … oh, wait.

  29. Good posts by ratsak today.
    What I don’t get is if Trumble is so happy with the PPM figures against Shorten, where they appear to have him right where they want him, they continue with the Kill Bill strategy, and attack Labor at any opportunity.

    Perhaps the press gallery can explain.

  31. BK
    Has anyone seen any argumentsagainst a SSM YES vote from any source other than a religious body or religious zealot?

    The shock jocks and other right-wingers who don’t appear overly religious are attacking ‘yes’ on the basis that it will destroy free speech, give the left extraordinary power to dictate to others and generally destroy society as we know it.

    That is, they are applying their usual tired old rhetoric to the SSM survey. They basically recycle the same arguments in relation to energy policy and other subjects that come their way.

  32. Boerwar @ #378 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 7:05 pm

    ‘Essential Research has an unusual two-point movement in favour of the Coalition in its fortnight rolling average, cutting Labor’s lead from 54-46 to 52-48.’

    ‘YouGov steady at 50-50, but Labor are up three on the primary vote to 35% and the Coalition steady on 34%. ‘

    There’s movement at the station… in several directions at once…

    My guess is that it will be the Yessers full of old regrets in years to come!

  34. NSW Premier Gladys Berijiklian comes out strongly in favour of a “Yes” vote. Says it’s a human rights issue and a ‘no brainer’. NSW State Liberals do have the same types of hard right ideologues in their ranks that infest the Federal Liberals, but unlike the Federal sphere, they don’t dominate.

  36. Explained in terms that anyone can understand:

    Australian household incomes have grown by less than the price of a coffee a year since 2008 and the Reserve Bank has warned workers to expect stubbornly low wage growth “for some time” yet.

    The paltry $3 per year bump in real terms has frustrated consumers, with any minuscule gains likely to be wiped out by surging power prices in the next 12 months as retailers book in increases of up to $300 in NSW and Victoria.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/the-economy/a-coffee-a-year-how-much-australian-incomes-have-grown-since-2008-20170919-gyk983.html

  37. Of course it is illegal to fire someone because of their view on this survey however it is legal to ruin someone’s life because they are gay, fire them at will, split elderly couples up, refuse services to people. Hypocrites. I hope one day they are in need of the helping hand of a gay samaritan and are brought face to face with their loathsome values.

  39. shiftaling @ #388 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 7:20 pm

    Of course it is illegal to fire someone because of their view on this survey however it is legal to ruin someone’s life because they are gay, fire them at will, split elderly couples up, refuse services to people. Hypocrites. I hope one day they are in need of the helping hand of a gay samaritan and are brought face to face with their loathsome values.

    it’s pretty obvious you are only happy when you are miserable and self loathing!

  42. Greensborough Growler @ #337 Tuesday, September 19th, 2017 – 4:23 pm

    An interesting connection of the hypocrisy of the Yessers!

    Bit disingenuous there GG. First off it’s from Newscorp. Admittedly it also appears on Yahoo7 as well, although they’re as reliable a source as Newscorp is.

    Anyway, every company I’ve been employed by over the last 30 years has had a zero tolerance attitude to racism, sexism and homophobia. Say anything racist, sexist or homophobic and you’re up for instant dismissal. No warnings, no second chance, just clean out your desk and prepare to be escorted off the premises. At the time of your initial employment you’re required to sign a contract that stipulates that you accept those terms and conditions. All it takes is one complaint from a foreign, female or gay staff member and your on the dole queue.

    I have no sympathy for anyone who gets the sack because they breached that legally binding contract.

    Now, unless we get to hear the full story from both the fellow employee, and employer we don’t know the full truth. All Newscorp and Yahoo7 are doing is presenting the sacked employees side of the story, which also (surprise, surprise) also fits into their right wing agendas.

    So yeah, nah. You’ll have to do better than that.

  46. The ‘no’ campaigners might feel a tad embarrassed that this fellow is joining their cause:

    A FAR right group, one of the chief organisers of the Cronulla riots anniversary events, has a new target — people voting yes for same-sex marriage.

    The Party for Freedom will hold a ‘Straight Lives Matter’ protest on Saturday in Sydney to campaign for “white heteronormativity”.

    The group, which usually campaigns against Muslim immigration, described the march as a reaction to the “purple haired rainbow collective”.

    The party’s leader, Nick Folkes, told news.com.au being gay was a choice and called on people who didn’t identify with their biological gender “retards”.

    http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/gay-marriage/far-right-nationalist-party-for-freedom-to-hold-straight-lives-matter-antisamesex-marriage-rally/news-story/23808028e7150ce7d1bb2e8e1eb148d0

  47. What dismays me most about the debate about SSM is that the many of the same arguments were put forward the last time such legislation specifically relating to same sex relationships came up in Qld (ignoring the change of the defintition of marriage in law under Howard). The danger to children, the necessity of maintaining the central nature of male- female relationships within society, the risk to families, etc. The more absurd arguments such as free speech limitations did not arise.

    But did any changes in these ‘institutions’ occur as a result of those previous changes? No. The Qld legislation was not the first in Australia (far from it), but the empirical evidence clearly showed these effects had not occurred due to previous legislative changes either.

    But we get the claims of great social disruption.

    30 years later we have the same arguments presented with no sound evidence to support them. I say to the religious institutions: give us your robust empirical EVIDENCE of this social destruction from past changes in Australia or elsewhere in the world or admit it’s just your personal or institutionalised view with no basis in the effects so claimed.

    It looks to me a weakness of character, or a weakness of the institutions to list spurious reasons and not own a view as just personal or purely based in religion.

  48. I don’t respond to trolls. Luckily my life is not dependent on Christian charity or employment so I’m ok. Doesn’t make it right that discrimination is tolerated in this secular society. In fact I’m hopeful that the lords of the Church may have overplayed their hand by threatening to sack us and cancel the weddings of our allies. ma.y people had no idea that such rampant discrimination is tolerated in this country and it’s a very ugly look.

  49. Is this Government is about due for a medically-caused bye-election?

    From Rose Lewis in the Oz.

    ‘Arthur Sinodinos has become the second Turnbull government minister to take extended leave this year for a medical issue.

    The Minister for Innovation, Industry and Science said he had sought and been granted “a period of leave” by Malcolm Turnbull to address his illness.

    “I will return to full duties later this year as soon as practicable. I ask for privacy for myself and my family at this time,” Senator Sinodinos said in a statement.

    Special Minister of State Scott Ryan also took an extended leave of absence in July to recover from “complications” that developed from addressing some “longstanding medical issue”.

    Senator Ryan has handed over responsibilities to Finance Minister Mathias Cormann while Employment Minister Michaelia Cash will take charge of Senator Sinodinos’ portfolios.

    Defence Minister Marise Payne was on sick leave with a severe abdominal infection that required surgery last year, forcing the postponement of “two-plus-two” meetings with her counterpart in Japan and the countries’ foreign ministers.

    It is common practice for senators to be paired when they are unable to attend parliament because of an illness so as not to affect votes in the Senate.’

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