BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

Two new poll results this week, including the first Ipsos poll in four months, have failed to budge the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Two new polls this week, from Ipsos and Essential Research, have wrought next to no change in voting intention, outside of an improvement for the Greens. However, their state breakdowns have caused Labor to make a net gain of two, having picked up two in Queensland and Victoria, while dropping one in New South Wales. Both pollsters produced leadership ratings this week, but I would caution against reading anything into the changes in the leadership ratings trends, as I don’t make any effort to correct for Ipsos’s consistent peculiarity in producing unusually strong approval ratings for both leaders. In other words, both leaders are up this week not because their ratings have improved – indeed, the opposite happened, particularly for Bill Shorten – but simply because there was an Ipsos result. This is not an issue with the preferred prime minister trend, on which Malcolm Turnbull increased his lead.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,282 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 26
1 2 3 4 … 26

  2. OK…so now I have C+ (there is a little red c+ on the toolbar) but when I do a refresh the most recent comment is 10:34 am!?!

    Do I need other plugins as well?

  3. Australians are being targeted on Facebook with homophobic and misleading information around the same-sex marriage postal survey, with material ranging from the apocalyptic to global conspiracies.

    In part two of Guardian Australia’s investigation into the hidden campaign around the marriage equality survey, readers have sent in examples of sponsored Facebook posts they have seen.

    A sponsored post is advertising via a Facebook post that appears in the news feed to a specifically targeted pool of people. Facebook advertising is considered to be effective because it allows for specific messaging to be fed to a finely combed audience.

    Sponsored posts can also be hidden from the general public. This tactic was seen throughout the Trump campaign and was believed to have contributed to his victory in the 2016 election.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/sep/16/same-sex-marriage-survey-facebook-accounts-targeted-with-homophobic-slurs?CMP=share_btn_tw

  5. lizzie,I think the answer is a firm yes (on Hartcher), though the premise of the article is sound, which is precisely why the optional non binding survey is being held.

    Turnout is key, Howard now 10 years since he was PM will only appeal to older voters, whose turnout is already expected to be high, and in my opinion, already decided how they will vote.

  7. Cupid @2:10PM I can never get why Turnbull bothers about being PM.If I had $200m dollars Id be retired on a beach somewhere.

    If I had $200 million I’d still get sunburnt after 20 minutes on the beach, I’d still get fat if I ate too much and whatever car I could afford would still be stuck in Sydney traffic much of the time.

    But I wouldn’t spend my days helping the likes of Abbott, Dutton, Joyce and Abetz transform Australia in their image unless I actually had no vision of my own.

  10. Suggesting that climate scientists are pushing a line about global warming because their salaries depend on it is a popular talking point that deniers love to throw around.

    But why do so many “sceptics”, particularly those who form part of the organised machinery of climate science denial, feel comfortable in accusing climate scientists of only being in it for the money?

    Duke University history professor Nancy MacLean suggests some answers in her new book Democracy in Chains: the Deep History of the Radical Right’s Stealth Plan for America.

    …MPS has about 500 members in more than 40 countries.

    In the US it has many members who also work at think tanks that push climate science misinformation and attack renewable energy. A membership list from 2010 showed Australian members included the Institute of Public Affairs boss John Roskam, former prime minister John Howard, business figure Maurice Newman and former senator Bob Day.

    MacLean argues that in the minds of many exponents of this “public choice” school, people are motivated primarily by self-interest.

    Public choice advocates will argue that people who work in government will push for increased departmental budgets primarily to protect their job prospects.

    In an interview at the Brisbane writers festival, MacLean told me: “If you read some of the stuff that comes out of the people in the ‘public choice’ school, they will say that these climate scientists are just after the next federal grant … they will try and discredit them as human beings. It’s really toxic stuff.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2017/sep/15/the-idea-that-climate-scientists-are-in-it-for-the-cash-has-deep-ideological-roots?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=243842&subid=22688624&CMP=ema_632

  11. At last someone discovers how to solve the DPRK problem. Good grief.

    Don Antonio is one of the most famous exorcists in Italy and regularly makes public statements warning of the devil’s work……….”Behind Kim Jong-Un is surely Satan, in North Korea all are forbidden religion and there is only the idolatry of the leader who has replaced God.

    “He could be exorcised remotely with prayer, as Pius XII did by the Vatican with Hitler.”

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11923011

  12. PhoenixRed:

    Maher interviewed conservative columnist Bret Stephens who agreed with him about the bipolar comment, saying this is not a presidency this is a neurosis. So true.

  14. “But why do so many “sceptics”, particularly those who form part of the organised machinery of climate science denial, feel comfortable in accusing climate scientists of only being in it for the money?”

    I always found that argument particularly unconvincing. A credible climate scientist who published research (in a recognised peer-reviewed scientific journal) that demonstrated that the additional CO2 that had accumulated in the atmosphere (known fact), that had originated from human activity, i.e. burning fossil fuels (measured fact), would have minimal impact on the Earth’s temperature and climate systems, would be in line to receive rivers of gold from fossil fuel interests to support their research. They’d be feted in board rooms, think tanks and business conferences in glitzy resorts around the world. They’d be set for life.

    But all that fossil fuel interests and their supporters have been able to find are a few genuine scientists in mostly unrelated disciplines , for example geology or nuclear physics, together with contrarian commentators and bloggers posing as ‘scientists’ who have a political axe to grind. Why would that be I wonder?
    .
    * A scientist who had qualifications in the area of study, had conducted research in the field and, had published in peer-reviewed scientific journals, who was respected by his / her peers in climate science.

  15. Steve

    Ive always thought the argument the otherway around. Why are people accusing the scientists of being in it for the money when they are the one being paided off?

  16. zoidlord

    It !! me even more because a few minutes before coming across “He could be exorcised remotely with prayer” I had been at the JPL site reading about the amazing Cassini mission. From the 21st 10th century in 5 minutes . Time travel lives 🙂

  17. poroti @ #111 Saturday, September 16th, 2017 – 1:22 pm

    At last someone discovers how to solve the DPRK problem. Good grief.

    Don Antonio is one of the most famous exorcists in Italy and regularly makes public statements warning of the devil’s work……….”Behind Kim Jong-Un is surely Satan, in North Korea all are forbidden religion and there is only the idolatry of the leader who has replaced God.

    “He could be exorcised remotely with prayer, as Pius XII did by the Vatican with Hitler.”

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11923011

    I wonder if he could do the same thing with our very own Rex?

  21. C@t:

    Really? The man is smokin’ hot! And I don’t just mean in looks, he’s actually got some interesting things to say about the Republicans and views on politics in general. He describes himself a former Republican because he doesn’t like the party’s descent into pious christianism, and he voted for Hillary. Finally, a sane (albeit former) Republican!

  22. C@t is correct:

    Mr. Stephens came to The Times after a long career with The Wall Street Journal, where he was most recently deputy editorial-page editor and, for 11 years, foreign affairs columnist. Before that, he was editor in chief of The Jerusalem Post, a position he assumed at age 28. At The Post he oversaw the paper’s news, editorial and digital operations and its international editions, and also wrote a weekly column. He has reported from around the world and interviewed scores of world leaders.

    Mr. Stephens is the author of “America in Retreat: The New Isolationism and the Coming Global Disorder,” released in November 2014. He is is the recipient of numerous awards and distinctions, including two honorary doctorates and the 2013 Pulitzer Prize for commentary. He was raised in Mexico City and holds a B.A. from the University of Chicago and an MSc. from the London School of Economics.

    He and his wife, Corinna da Fonseca-Wollheim, a music critic for The Times, live with their three children in New York and Hamburg, Germany.

    Mr Stephens is in Australia to deliver the 2017 Lowy Institute Media Award Lecture.

    http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/coming_up.htm#BRET_STEPHENS

  23. Steve777 – Malcolm has to be PM because his mother walked out on him when he was nine, taking the cat, and his father thought he was hopeless. $200 million doesn’t salve those wounds. You have to become PM and prove to both of them that you were worthy of the love they denied you.

  26. Ides @3:46PM

    “Ive always thought the argument the otherway around. Why are people accusing the scientists of being in it for the money when they are the one being paided off?

    Exactly. Fossil fuel companies, like the tobacco industry, want to keep the game going for as long as they can. Free market fundamentalists are backing them because they see concerted action on climate change as being completely at odds with their vision of the future. I don’t know what they actually believe. It might be a combination of “The free market will take care of it”, “The cure is worse than the disease – let’s adapt”, that all time favourite “it’s someone else’s problem”, “we’ll deal with it later” (which seems to be Turnbull’s approach) and “It’s not happening”.

    At its core, its about greed. Not that of scientists. People whose prime motivation is to become wealthy and powerful don’t get into science.

  28. C@tmomma

    confessions @ #112 Saturday, September 16th, 2017 – 3:35 pm

    “PhoenixRed:”

    “Maher interviewed conservative columnist Bret Stephens who agreed with him about the bipolar comment, saying this is not a presidency this is a neurosis. So true.”

    Bret Stephens is on QandA on Monday night. : )

    ******************************

    THANKS Confessions and C@tmomma …….. will be viewing Real Time …… and Q&A ( Bret & Penny Wong – should be good !!! )

  29. Jolyon, as far as I’m concerned a site that can only be read using a plug-in is not worth reading. If Crikey really wants us they would make it work properly. I am NOT going to bother, ever, with plugins, even if that means I sometimes fall a few hours behind on some of the stimulating comments from my fellow bludgerisers.

    And Adrian, I can be pedantic about some things (it’s not towing a line, ffs, it’s TOEing the line that someone has drawn, as in obediently standing with yer toes up against it – even Steph Peatling keeps getting that wrong!) but I really couldn’t give a flying faark about less and fewer. They both mean less stuff, or fewer things, or less things and fewer stuffs.

  30. phoenixRED @ #128 Saturday, September 16th, 2017 – 4:54 pm

    C@tmomma

    confessions @ #112 Saturday, September 16th, 2017 – 3:35 pm

    “PhoenixRed:”

    “Maher interviewed conservative columnist Bret Stephens who agreed with him about the bipolar comment, saying this is not a presidency this is a neurosis. So true.”

    Bret Stephens is on QandA on Monday night. : )

    ******************************

    THANKS Confessions and C@tmomma …….. will be viewing Real Time …… and Q&A ( Bret & Penny Wong – should be good !!! )

    The irony is. of course, that Confessions, if true to form, won’t be watching. 😆

  31. Jackaranda:

    You don’t need plugins to read PB. However the plugin has one sole benefit for me: the block feature, enabling the blocking of this site’s misogynistic troll who adds nothing to the comments except to bait and abuse. That alone makes it worth it for me.

  32. PhoenixRed:

    No worries, the panelists were Salman Rushdie and Fran Liebowitz so it was an intelligent discussion. Even the Project Runway host was amusing and insightful.

    I wish Australia had this kind of TV offering.

  33. And Steve, Ides and others – it’s not just the coal and oil companies that want to deny global warming and sea level rise. It’s real estate salesghouls too – see https://www.domain.com.au/news/us-real-estate-industry-blocks-sealevel-warnings-that-could-crimp-profits-on-coastal-properties-20170915-gyhx8f/ Of course it’s all about money, and since they only understand money they think that scientists are only in it for the money.

  35. I’ll be interested to hear what a thoughtful Conservative has to say as well. I may not agree with all of his opinions (he probably likes Opera for one : ) ) but I am always open to being persuaded about everything, if a good enough argument is presented, supported by verifiable facts.

  36. Which reminds me about another one of dtt’s ridiculous assertions, that it’s better to support Trump because you might get Pence. Well, as I always tried to justifiably assert in response, only to receive the predictable rudeness in return, Pence is in as deep as Don, and if Trump goes down, Pence will follow.

  37. confessions

    PhoenixRed:

    No worries, the panelists were Salman Rushdie and Fran Liebowitz so it was an intelligent discussion. Even the Project Runway host was amusing and insightful.

    I wish Australia had this kind of TV offering.

    ****************************************

    By accident – I switched over to the ABC and last Wednesday and caught ” Get Crackin ” – would have to be the absolute worst program I have ever seen on TV – sorry ABC, but it was a disgrace and I agree with Confessions that if is the best the national broadcaster can come up with then we have hit rock bottom in bogonapocalypse….

  40. Is it even illegal to sell your plebiscite ballot paper to someone else? I can’t see why it is.

    “The Australian Bureau of Statistics is in discussion with Australian federal police after it emerged marriage equality postal votes were being put up for sale online.

    The concerns were raised in the past week as the ABS began sending ballots out to people for the upcoming marriage equality postal survey, and one appeared on eBay with a starting bid of $1,500. ”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/sep/16/police-brought-in-after-marriage-equality-survey-forms-put-up-for-sale-online

  41. True, Fess. Actually there was a post from the old BeAbusive immediately under yours, which I guess you missed. It was as pointless as usual but I really couldn’t be bothered with loading a plugin just to blank him out. The filter in my brain can do that easily enough.

  45. Boerwar

    I think crackin is supposed to be a spoof on the commercial morning shows, but as I never watch them, I don’t get it.
    It reminds me (and I’ve only seen the promos) of the dreadful Home with Julia. Someone in the higher levels of the ABC has no judgement and no real sense of humour 🙁

  46. C@tmomma

    Which reminds me about another one of dtt’s ridiculous assertions, that it’s better to support Trump because you might get Pence. Well, as I always tried to justifiably assert in response, only to receive the predictable rudeness in return, Pence is in as deep as Don, and if Trump goes down, Pence will follow.

    *************************************************************************

    I totally agree with you, C@tmomma – Pence is losing staff as fast as Trump – which indicates to me that something is seriously wrong – and everything I have read about Pence is that he is as deep/if not deeper as Trump in the questionable election process – he is either as complicit or incompetent in his blind-eye treatment of Flynn.

    Another explanation could be that Pence’s office is scandal plagued – perhaps as a result of his complicity in Trump’s Russia scandal coverup – and some staffers are looking to bail before it gets ugly

    I want to see them BOTH go down …………the sooner the better……..for what they have done to the office of President ……

  49. C@tmomma @ #136 Saturday, September 16th, 2017 – 5:08 pm

    Which reminds me about another one of dtt’s ridiculous assertions, that it’s better to support Trump because you might get Pence. Well, as I always tried to justifiably assert in response, only to receive the predictable rudeness in return, Pence is in as deep as Don, and if Trump goes down, Pence will follow.

    The whole rotten crew lined up after Pence is not much better either.

Comments Page 3 of 26
1 2 3 4 … 26

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *