Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor gains a point on two-party preferred from Essential, but the pollster joins Ipsos in finding a rise in Bill Shorten’s disapproval rating.

This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, out from 53-47 last week, with primary vote numbers not available at this stage. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull up three on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 46%; Bill Shorten up one to 36% and up five to 47%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister at 43-29, compared with 41-27 last time. Respondents were also asked if they favoured a series of measures on energy policy, which found strong support for regulating power prices, increasing investment in renewable energy and storage, reserving gas for domestic use, and a “clean-up of existing coal-fired power stations”, while lesser but still majority support for forcing energy companies to help their customers use less power and bringing privatised coal generators back into public ownership. Twenty-eight per cent rated Labor most likely to deliver lower power prices compared with 19% for the Coalition, with 35% for no difference and 18% for don’t know.

UPDATE: Full report here. Primary votes are Coalition steady on 36%, Labor steady on 37%, Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up a point to 9%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,898 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Ctari
    Why!!

    The Russians are the world leaders in rocketry, so if anyone can hit an incoming missile it would be them.

    I am not saying it did happen, but there is not reason to assume it did not either.

    You do know that the USA totally relies on Russia for all its rockets etc.

    they have been doing a bit of precision rocketry in Syria just these last two days – firing 600 k away and hitting ISIS targets in the desert.

  2. Zeh,
    Obviously you have a purpose for your laptop, but having gone there myself, one day I realised I didn’t really have the need, and reverted to desktops. My wife has since followed suit. So much grunt and luxury (like a full sized keyboard) for so much less cost.

    We get by on tablets for mobility, and an old laptop for when we go off on holiday.

  3. DTT

    Re those cruise missile. Rather than knock them down the suspicion is that the Russians used one of their new electronic warfare gizmos to send a number off course. As to whether many or any were so affected ????????????

  4. ratsak
    Exactly the same gameplan as on Carbon/energy. Trumble will happily go along. He just needs a brief to argue and his fee paid (another night at the lodge) and he’s your advocate.

    History suggests you are correct. It’s almost as if Turnbull isn’t even aware of why he was once popular.

  5. The interesting thing on proposed legislation is that the Government is not planning to introduce their own legislation for ME but allow a private members bill to be introduced.

    Smith’s bill is the one talked about as if it would be the one, but what would be the process for deciding this and could the RWNJs offer their own bill for consideration?

  6. dtt

    You do know that the USA totally relies on Russia for all its rockets etc.

    “all” … for going up and docking with the space station ?

    There’s a bit more ‘space launching’ going on other than that

  7. daretotread @ #1601 Friday, September 15th, 2017 – 2:56 pm

    Ctari
    Why!!

    The Russians are the world leaders in rocketry, so if anyone can hit an incoming missile it would be them.

    Seriously? How about electronics and guidance systems?

    I am not saying it did happen, but there is not reason to assume it did not either.

    You do know that the USA totally relies on Russia for all its rockets etc.

    they have been doing a bit of precision rocketry in Syria just these last two days – firing 600 k away and hitting ISIS targets in the desert.

    Well that is a safe bet on either side of the argument.

  8. Question @ #1603 Friday, September 15th, 2017 – 3:02 pm

    Zeh,
    Obviously you have a purpose for your laptop, but having gone there myself, one day I realised I didn’t really have the need, and reverted to desktops. My wife has since followed suit. So much grunt and luxury (like a full sized keyboard) for so much less cost.

    We get by on tablets for mobility, and an old laptop for when we go off on holiday.

    Oh no doubt I much prefer desktops, the laptop is hooked up to a hub and external keyboard and mouse etc, and functions exactly like a mid-powered desktop. The portability is just the main benefit, its a pretty bespoke setup for developing on a ERP system, and when I move between work and home, and overseas it’s just a must.
    I loath many things, but none as much as a trackpad, except maybe a touchscreen.
    ‘Hey look at this beautiful crisp display, with wonderful colours and illuminations, how about you put your grubby fingers all over it while missing what you were aiming for in the first place!?’

  9. “You do know that the USA totally relies on Russia for all its rockets etc.”

    Your source for this DTT?

    The US does use Russia for sending Astronauts to the ISS since the retirement of the Shuttles, but what else?

  10. briefly:
    “It is just unbelievable that the deists should assume they will have rights that others will not. They seek to create new privileges and exemptions for themselves.”

    Just like not paying taxes or reporting child abuse.

    The good thing about this is that it lays bare for all to see what the church is really about.

  11. BigD,
    I can’t see the nutter’s passing up an opportunity to obfuscate. Even Howard is sticking his toe in. I think they will insist on legislation “with the proper safeguards for freedom of blah blah blah”… and insist the party not allow any old private member’s bill to get up…

    But we shall see.

  12. kevjohnno @ #1611 Friday, September 15th, 2017 – 3:07 pm

    “You do know that the USA totally relies on Russia for all its rockets etc.”

    Your source for this DTT?

    The US does use Russia for sending Astronauts to the ISS since the retirement of the Shuttles, but what else?

    Of course DDT is entirely incorrect, however it does highlight the complete lack of government level investment in the US.
    The completely declining trajectory of the US’s space capability… Saturn V’s going to the moon in the 60’s, to Shuttles going only to low earth orbit, to now absolutely nothing.
    Instead private industry with personal passion in the area has had to take over, and unfortunately it’s not a profitable investment to make at the moment. Just a complete lack of aspiration on the part of the US government.

  13. Zeh,

    Yep, can’t stand trackpads. When I travel with a laptop I take a mouse, I would take a keyboard too, but you have to draw the line somewhere : ).

  14. My ‘survey’ form turned up this morning.

    Form marked and ready for posting tomorrow.

    No problem with envelope sealing.

    Going by the number of posters on here and other internet places who have said they’ve received their form it looks like the monster bulk posting has gone a lot better than many people said it would.

  15. I remember the problem with the SDI (star wars) was that for every expensive and complicated space thingamyWhatsy the US put up, all the Russians had to do was go and park a relatively cheap mine beside it.

  16. adrian:

    “I’m sick of being told I have a restricted vocabulary.”

    There are lots of new words I learn here; I am grateful for it. I don’t ‘read’ (fiction) or ‘news’papers (I prefer to read non-fiction), so there’s a lot of flowery terms I’ve never encountered that I see used here. I use it as an opportunity to learn new words.

    Not that I’m a “dummy” either; I did part of an IQ test 11 years ago with a neuropsychologist, and performed between the 91st and 94th percentile for my age group for vocabulary, 3 weeks after having a minor stroke. Still, there’s a lot of stuff I don’t know. Knowing you don’t know something is smarter than thinking you know everything.

  17. [Question
    BigD,
    I can’t see the nutter’s passing up an opportunity to obfuscate. Even Howard is sticking his toe in. I think they will insist on legislation “with the proper safeguards for freedom of blah blah blah”… and insist the party not allow any old private member’s bill to get up…

    But we shall see.]

    I can just imagine a private members bill, authored by Abbott, Abetz, Andrews, Bernardi and Christensen.

    Same sex marriages may only be performed on Blue Moons in July and must take place at least 200 km away from the nearest settlement of 5 or more people and on the explicit written provision that all residents within that radius are agreeable to the ceremony taking place.

  18. ““It is just unbelievable that the deists should assume they will have rights that others will not. They seek to create new privileges and exemptions for themselves.”

    Just like not paying taxes or reporting child abuse.”

    Yup, the above annoys me greatly. smug buggers need a reality check.

  19. Im still waiting for my survey farce letter. Definitely need to let the numpties in this area know there is pro ssm people around.

  20. Mr Newbie

    Still, there’s a lot of stuff I don’t know. Knowing you don’t know something is smarter than thinking you know everything.

    *************************************************

    There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know.

    Donald Rumsfeld

  21. Just catching up, and I read Hanson’s crit of the ABC with amazement. Does she ever listen to/watch the ABC? She seems to be assuming that it automatically endorses Labor, plus any “lefty” ideas that the Coalition insist that Labor supports.

    And I don’t see the point of demanding the salaries, as the commercials would be paying much more. What is that supposed to prove? I detect the illogical brain of Malcolm Campbell in this as well.

    “The ABC receives over $1bn a year from the Australian taxpayer,” she said during Wednesday’s Senate debate. “We are not all leftwing bleeding hearts wanting to open our borders to illegals and refugees.

    “We are not all supporters of gay marriage. We are not all supporters of corrupt unions and socialist agendas.

    “We are not all supporters of becoming a republic.

    “And we are definitely not all supporters of destroying our Australian identity, culture and way of life to continue the push for multiculturalism and forever saying sorry.”

  22. BigD,
    I’m thinking they will insist it be government legislation, and will want to put in something “to protect” the cheese makers. : )

  23. Mr Newbie & Phoenix, I reckon the best indication of intelligence is curiosity. And of course curiosity assumes there is lots you don’t know otherwise you wouldn’t be curious.

  24. IoM

    One one person makes less sense.

    Robert’s quite amazing.

    He was never an Indian citizen because it never occurred to him that he might be one by birth …

    A master of logic.

  25. A Dirty Little Secret

    An investigation into Facebook’s political donations to Republican and anti-LGBT politicians and its investments from Putin-linked Russian oligarchs. We found a pattern of political activity at odds with the company’s public image.

    At 33, Mark Zuckerberg is one of the world’s most recognizable names. Zuckerberg is also one of its richest, estimated to be worth $73.7 billion. The Facebook founder publicly espouses liberal notions on everything from gay rights to immigration but a closer look under the hood of Facebook’s finances and political operations reveals a record of support for conservative causes, opposition to LGBT rights and connections to Russian money.

    Zuckerberg is now under enormous pressure to reveal more about Facebook’s role in a Russian propaganda campaign in support of Donald Trump in the 2016 election cycle.

    https://narativ.org/2017/09/14/facebook-dirty-little-secret/

  26. I’ve received, completed and returned the postal survey. I wonder how quickly the forms will be returned. The potential field of persuadable respondents will be shrinking every day now. You’d think early responders – those most likely to wish to record their opinion – will return their forms within the first 7-10 days. So by the end of next week, the law of diminishing returns to campaigning will really have taken hold. There will be very few persuadable voters left in the pool by the end of September. I hope the ABS publish the data on returned forms each day.

    It will be very interesting to see if the campaigns result in any discernible moves in opinion. Usually advertising works best by reinforcing existing opinions.

    The YES campaign has been able to focus on themes of love, freedom, happiness and equality. People will easily identify with these. As well, the rainbow imagery has very high recognition – recognition that would generally be positive and which will support acceptance of campaign messages.

    By contrast, the NO voices have not campaigned explicitly on marriage and rights under the law. This is not surprising, since a discussion on the terrain of equality under the law will certainly mean the YES case will win.

    Instead, the NO campaign has focused on some quite arcane, tangential and derivative themes. It’s hard to see how these will register with most voters, for whom the “religious freedom” lines will likely seem to be irrelevant, intellectualised and over-blown novelty arguments. They are classic scary theatre. It’s very unlikely that most voters will form strong enough affiliations with these values to be moved by them in the very limited time available for them to be propagated.

    At a more general level, the NO campaign consists of various declarations against individual freedom. This is very unlikely to move opinion. Maybe it will actually drive down support for the NO case.

  27. I found this report in the SMH on his second contempt charge. I was wrong the court did take action
    Dr Katelaris was prosecuted in 2005 over the cultivation of 50,000 cannabis plants at his Dungog property, during which process he was also charged for the possession of cannabis when officers discovered him bringing the substance into the courtroom.
    He was acquitted on the possession charges but his indignation on being found guilty of cultivating a commercial quantity of hemp led to a further prosecution for contempt of court, after he likened the jury to a “group of 12 sheep”.
    Fighting that charge, he said the judge in the drug case was “morbidly obese” and “his ego was bruised by the fact he could not stay awake” during the trial, but this defence did not persuade the judge and he was convicted and placed on a three-year good behaviour bond.

  28. As Pauline said:
    “And we are definitely not all supporters of destroying our Australian identity, culture and way of life to continue the push for multiculturalism and forever saying sorry.”

    Unfortunately i do wish to destroy our Australian identity, culture & way of life, and do wish to push for multiculturalism and don’t mind saying sorry sincerely & often; So i would hope that the ABC would also give my views some time & space and representation not just the ones Pauline promotes.

  29. Phoenix

    You DO relise I assume that the LNP will use the SAME anti foreigner approach to target Getup here in Australia because apparently some Democrat bigwigs fund it. I have got this from LNP sources so pretty certain it will be one of their anti Labor actions in the next election.

  30. I too would like to see a fair and balanced ABC rather than the insertion of IPA personnel into all debates but none from the far left of centre.
    Perhaps if there were an independent arbiter/commission monitoring the fairness & balance we would get something of a shock as to where ‘our’ ABC currently sits.

  31. OC

    Dr Katelaris was prosecuted in 2005 over the cultivation of 50,000 cannabis plants at his Dungog property

    Did he claim it was for his own use?

    🙂

  32. booleanbach

    These irrational desires of Pauline, if made law, will require extra staff to adjudicate. Then the MPs can spend hours arguing which words are permissible and what they mean.

    I agree about the IPA, but that’s because I’m biased!!.

  33. Fr Rod Bower‏ @FrBower · 4h4 hours ago

    My support of #SSM is what bullying looks like to the ‘NO’ advocates. They should try being a gay kid in hospital after being beaten up.

  34. Jenauthor

    Also Sydney based but no survey yet. Im North Eastern but I believe steve777 in the inner North may have already got us?

  35. Tony Abbott’s daughter Frances Abbott has announced her support for marriage equality and urged people to vote yes in the national postal survey.

    Despite her father being an outspoken opponent of the yes campaign, Ms Abbott posted a passionate statement in favour of legalising same-sex marriage to Instagram, alongside a picture of herself wearing a ‘Vote Yes’ T-shirt.

    ‘YES PLEASE,’ she wrote. “I don’t really care much for politics. But I do really care a lot for love. All love is good. Let’s celebrate it”.

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