Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor gains a point on two-party preferred from Essential, but the pollster joins Ipsos in finding a rise in Bill Shorten’s disapproval rating.

This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, out from 53-47 last week, with primary vote numbers not available at this stage. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull up three on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 46%; Bill Shorten up one to 36% and up five to 47%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister at 43-29, compared with 41-27 last time. Respondents were also asked if they favoured a series of measures on energy policy, which found strong support for regulating power prices, increasing investment in renewable energy and storage, reserving gas for domestic use, and a “clean-up of existing coal-fired power stations”, while lesser but still majority support for forcing energy companies to help their customers use less power and bringing privatised coal generators back into public ownership. Twenty-eight per cent rated Labor most likely to deliver lower power prices compared with 19% for the Coalition, with 35% for no difference and 18% for don’t know.

UPDATE: Full report here. Primary votes are Coalition steady on 36%, Labor steady on 37%, Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up a point to 9%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,898 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. briefly:

    Stutchbury is an outright shill for the coalition. But he’s right that the govt has successfully reframed the energy debate around cost and security rather than alternatives to emissions intensive industries.

  3. I’ll tell you who has taken it up to the Liberals and given them no quarter! Me!
    In the recent Council election the Liberals were so cocky they thought they would end up with 2 Councillors from our upmarket Ward. Instead, through our preference deals we kept the 2nd one out and helped a Progressive Independent get the spot instead! We also cajoled every voter we could to vote for us. We put months of work into our policy platform. We made sure that if there was any funny business going on by the Liberals or their ‘Independent’ proxy parties, we got an opinion from the Labor lawyers and then stomped on it.

    We did everything we could to win!

    And now we have a Progressive Council to show for it.

  5. confessions
    briefly:

    Stutchbury is an outright shill for the coalition. But he’s right that the govt has successfully reframed the energy debate around cost and security rather than alternatives to emissions intensive industries.

    Labor can promise both….increasing renewable and clean energy and investment certainty, leading to higher investment, strengthened supply and lower costs. This matches the lived experience of households. Where there has been investment in renewables, energy cost and reliability have improved. Where there has been repression of investment, both reliability and cost have deteriorated.

  6. The Essential poll during the week had a figure of Labor better on power prices than the coalition.

    The next election will come when the Liberals have been in power for 5 or 6 years, after campaigning on the carbon tax. They will say, give us more time, we will fix it but Labor would do much worse.

  7. C@tmomma
    I’ll tell you who has taken it up to the Liberals and given them no quarter! Me!

    I’m very proud of you C@t!!!!

    Next time, try to get the #1 spot. The Council will never be the same!

  8. confessions

    briefly:
    Stutchbury is an outright shill for the coalition.

    More likely he is merely singing for his supper. The MSM lifeboat is going down so appeasing one’s master becomes increasingly vital.

  11. @C@tmomma

    Fantastic work. It’s hard to make sense of council elections but good to hear at least progressives will control the council.

  15. briefly, poroti:

    Of course Labor is best placed energy policy-wise on energy security (polls!), and on reducing GHGEs. But that doesn’t negate the reality of the coalition trying to change the argument to something else.

    Given msm attention they have succeeded.

  16. Thanks JR, Gorkay and Briefly. I’m just proud to have been a part of the successful effort to not allow the gerrymandering the Liberals engaged in to be a success for them.

    The Developers and their political proxies had their greedy eyes on engaging in an overdevelopment frenzy. Not going to happen.

  19. Aqualung

    What burned the lyrics into my mind was that 13 y.o. me had just read Orwell’s “Down and Out in Paris and London “. Anderson must have read it and used scenes from it with lyrics like this.
    .
    “Hey and you snatch your rattling last breaths
    With deep-sea diver sounds
    And the flowers bloom like
    Madness in the spring”

  20. No ‘fess I haven’t been elected. As #2 on the ticket it was always going to be a big ask to get me over the line too. I’m just proud to have been a part of the successful effort to keep the Liberals down to only one from our Ward and to have the final spot of 3 up for grabs go to a Progressive Independent. She’s a former Maths teacher fcs! : )

  24. C@tmomma
    Thanks JR, Gorkay and Briefly. I’m just proud to have been a part of the successful effort to not allow the gerrymandering the Liberals engaged in to be a success for them.

    The Developers and their political proxies had their greedy eyes on engaging in an overdevelopment frenzy. Not going to happen.

    I’ve also been drawn into trying to advocate for a change to developer plans for a big project out here in Perth’s north. It’s going to be interesting. There will be resistance. But we will win.

  27. C@

    Hilary’s comment, “When they go low, we go high”.

    Michelle Obama, actually.

    Didn’t think this sounded like Hilary. She’s definitely into pay back.

  29. Briefly, they call it the Liberal Party Overdevelopment Agenda over here. It just rakes in the money for the State government and makes fat profits for their developer mates. I know people need to live somewhere but we are talking about land banking by overseas buyers. It’s not a good enough reason to overdevelop the hell out of the place.

  31. C@ is it the “over development” you object to, or they tying up of land by overseas buyers (and I’d also presume you’d add to this, the tying up of land by Australian speculators).

  36. UPDATE. AGL

    I have a folder for my utilities. Back to 2000. (thank dog for paper invoices, eh CTar1).

    When AGL decided my accounts needed a rethink, they did so without taking my filing system into account.

    Hehehehe . . .

    The dodgy bastards do indeed owe me heaps.

    They did really well on the gas bill (because the discount, percentage-wise, yields a much smaller overcharge). Yet they still tried to diddle me there.

    But they’re huffing and puffing about the elec. To the extent, that when they re-issued my accounts from 2013 to the present, they fucked up at the first hurdle. Trying to charge me for over the counter payments (apparently $2 a pop) when I paid by BPAY, and have receipt numbers – when they discovered they hadn’t applied the correct discount.

    My beef in the first place was being charged for “paying the bill”.

    I suggested that rather than a mere call-centre person profusely apologising, they just cough up.

    I await more trees in the letter-box.

    SSM/ME

    Which reminds me, I thought it was just we country hicks in Motown who haven’t yet received postal vote stuff. Comforting to know that North Shore Sydneyites are behind the eight ball, too.

  37. K2
    Another thing to watch.
    Some companies offer a slightly higher discount, but then you find they only apply it to useage and not the supply charge. I nearly got tricked into changing suppliers by this.
    State Govt has a site where you can find your best deal on gas and electricity based on your useage. I will see if I can find the link for you.
    Turned out I was doing OK.

  39. I didn’t read that book poroti. But I love the lyrics. Some are a little denser than others depending on the album. I would have been 13/14. 1972 that acoustic guitar and Anderson : really don’t mind if you sit this one out…
    Worked my way back from there. Totally hooked after Aqualung.
    Brilliant live. Sadly Andersons voice is gone. Still puts on a good show and the acoustic songs are kinder on the voice.

  45. ratsak @ #1829 Friday, September 15th, 2017 – 7:41 pm

    They only understand one thing – power. If you have it, use it. If you fail to use it they will take it from you and use it against you without a second’s thought. If you want to have the option of working constructively with the Libs you have to hurt them to the point they decide they’d like a break from hurtin’ for a bit.

    Agree. They need to feel the full force of The Law of Consequences.

    They need to understand in no uncertain terms that those who give no quarter and show no mercy can expect none.

    It is clearly the only way the cons operate and all they understand. So that is the way they need to be dealt with and brought to heel.

    Go for the jugular, Labor, and don’t be shy about it. Repeat relentlessly. Forever.

  46. confessions @ #1823 Friday, September 15th, 2017 – 6:06 pm

    Ides:

    I don’t believe Salvos would discriminate, but perhaps it would happen on a state by state, or city by city basis.

    My wife works for the Salvo’s. If you think they wouldn’t discriminate you, like many others before you who think the Salvo’s are sweetness, spice and all things nice are in for a mighty nasty shock if you ever end up working for them.

    The Salvo’s make 7 Eleven seem like employers of choice.

  47. grimace,

    I worked for a company that was taken over by a WA company with high ranking Salvo links.

    I didn’t see too many Christian values in their business ethics.

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