Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor gains a point on two-party preferred from Essential, but the pollster joins Ipsos in finding a rise in Bill Shorten’s disapproval rating.

This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, out from 53-47 last week, with primary vote numbers not available at this stage. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull up three on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 46%; Bill Shorten up one to 36% and up five to 47%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister at 43-29, compared with 41-27 last time. Respondents were also asked if they favoured a series of measures on energy policy, which found strong support for regulating power prices, increasing investment in renewable energy and storage, reserving gas for domestic use, and a “clean-up of existing coal-fired power stations”, while lesser but still majority support for forcing energy companies to help their customers use less power and bringing privatised coal generators back into public ownership. Twenty-eight per cent rated Labor most likely to deliver lower power prices compared with 19% for the Coalition, with 35% for no difference and 18% for don’t know.

UPDATE: Full report here. Primary votes are Coalition steady on 36%, Labor steady on 37%, Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up a point to 9%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,898 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 38
1 2 38
  1. LU (Previous Thread @ #526),

    Are there any operational synchronous condensors in Australia or has there been enough inertia with the in service coal fired power station generators to date? Google identifies three that are no longer in service in Victoria

    In a world wholly comprised of solar (whatever form) and wind generation with operational but still potentially intermittent hydro generation linked together with the east coast HV network, would a significant number of large synchronous condensors (many 1000s of kVArs each) be needed for system voltage/frequency stability?

  2. Instead of buying back coal power stations, would it not make more sense to buy back the electricity grid?

    Houses can put solar panels on the roof but apartments can not.

  3. Jacob HSr

    Instead of buying back coal power stations, would it not make more sense to buy back the electricity grid?

    Agree 100%.
    Buying back coal fired stations is ridiculous. The only people who support this are a handful of manipulative RWNJs controlling our empty suit PM.
    Cost effective access to the grid is essential to open up the market to local trading – an Ebay of electricity, if you like – the only way to deliver affordable power to all.

  4. Nice , Newspoll comes in 1% and then Essential goes out.
    Next Newspoll will probably reverse the pattern.

    Apparently ICAC in NSW is showing interest in the Murray, Darling water revelations.
    One surprising measure proposed is ‘no meter’, ‘no water’, many users simply to not have meters to measure their water usage, socialism of course. Surprising in that it was assumed all water users would be measuring their intake.

  5. TallebudgeraLurker

    In a world wholly comprised of solar (whatever form) and wind generation with operational but still potentially intermittent hydro generation linked together with the east coast HV network, would a significant number of large synchronous condensors (many 1000s of kVArs each) be needed for system voltage/frequency stability?

    No.
    These services can be provided by solar with inverters, wind generators and batteries.

  6. From Coorey’s article in the AFR on the Liddel meeting

    “Following a 90-minute meeting on Monday afternoon in Canberra, Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg said the government would only accept AGL’s replacement plan if the power were as reliable as coal in that it could be supplied upon demand. Nor could it be less reliable or more expensive than the electricity being generated by Liddell, a 50-year-old ailing coal plant. This, the government believes, will corner AGL into having to keep the plant open or sell it.”

    So they are going to load any deal with conditions to steer them into keeping the coal plant open.

    Give us 90 days to find better plan than Liddell, AGL tells Malcolm Turnbull
    http://www.afr.com/news/give-us-90-days-to-find-better-plan-than-liddell-agl-tells-malcolm-turnbull-20170910-gyeqo4?btis

  7. More from that article
    “But the government told AGL that its preference was to keep Liddell running for another five years because that was the simplest, easiest and cheapest option.”
    Not much imagination

  8. Wow, for a government which runs around accusing Shorten of being the most extremely left wing OL leader Australia has ever seen, they don’t mind dictating to business, do they?

    Malcolm is painting himself into a corner here, which will end up with the government having to compulsorily acquire a private asset just so he doesn’t lose face.

  9. zoomster @ #10 Tuesday, September 12th, 2017 – 7:25 am

    Wow, for a government which runs around accusing Shorten of being the most extremely left wing OL leader Australia has ever seen, they don’t mind dictating to business, do they?

    Malcolm is painting himself into a corner here, which will end up with the government having to compulsorily acquire a private asset just so he doesn’t lose face.

    You nailed it a few days ago ~ sell it for the wrong reason then buy it back for the wrong reason.

  10. Fydenberg – “only accept” –

    Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg said the government would only accept AGL’s replacement plan if the power were as reliable as coal in that it could be supplied upon demand.

    As the govt has no regulation in place does it matter what they’ll ‘accept’?

  11. ‘Mr Vesey said Liddell was an unreliable option, saying the company had spent $123 million upgrading the plant since it bought it in 2015 from the NSW government.

    “Despite this investment, during the February 2017 heatwave, two units from Liddell were out of the market due to unforeseeable boiler tube leaks. As a result, there was not enough energy in the system and NSW experienced blackouts in parts of the state,” he said.’

    So I get back to some basic questions:

    1. Are the blackouts AEMO is predicting any different in intensity/duration/likelihood than those which occur in a ‘normal’ summer?

    2. Why Liddell? Are we really down to the ‘pick a box, pick any box’ approach to policy development? — Otherwise, there is something else going on which is hard to fathom.

    3. What is Malcolm’s Plan B here?

    There might be one. There’s a slim chance this is all about being able to say to his party room that he’s explored other options, but a CET is the only way to go. After all, he’s prepared to get everyone in Australia to vote on one issue just to get leverage in the party room, so pretending he wants a coal fired power station to stay open despite all sense and reason saying it shouldn’t might be one of his cunning plans.

    Of course, he could try leadership…

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Hartcher writes about five things that got worse while we sat back and watched hurricane Irma.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-five-big-crises-that-got-worse-while-the-world-watched-irma-20170911-gyeuxu.html
    Ross Taylor lifts the lid on dodgy developers and how strata title owners are being left high and dry, unprotected by legislation. A shocking state of affairs!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/new-building-laws-wont-stop-dodgy-developers-cutting-costs-20170910-gyenl1.html
    Shaun Carney tells us that Turnbull must tell us what he stands for – not just SSM. Google.
    /news/opinion/prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-must-show-us-what-he-stands-for-not-just-on-marriage-equality/news-story/dab0b293a9d1b2edc23937588846eb6a
    Nicole Hemmer tells us that talk of a new Trump only highlights delusions of the media and a broken system. She says he is no independent. He’s a failing president looking for a win, no matter how small, wherever he can get it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/talk-of-a-new-trump-only-highlights-delusions-of-the-media-and-a-broken-system-20170911-gyesog.html
    Peter Martin writes that AT LAST each Australian company director will be assigned a unique identification number under tough new laws designed to prevent them deliberately scuttling their companies to avoid paying creditors and then re-appearing phoenix-like, debt-free.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/id-numbers-for-directors-as-turnbull-government-cracks-down-on-phoenix-companies-20170911-gyf8b8.html
    Another bit of good work from the government as it announces that attractive sign-up offers tempting Australians to either open online betting accounts or refer a friend to open one will be banned under a new agreement struck by the nation’s gambling ministers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/bookies-banned-from-online-signup-inducements-20170911-gyewup.html
    Stephen Koukoulas is angry and says that it is a sad state of affairs to realise that the current crop of Australian policymakers have effectively given up on reducing unemployment. He accuses Turnbull and Morrison of engaging in a deliberate and dodgy cop out,
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/11/turnbull-and-morrison-dont-talk-about-unemployment-its-a-deliberate-but-dodgy-cop-out
    The “yes” side on same-sex marriage is headed for a resounding victory with seven out of 10 definite voters backing a change to the law, a Fairfax/Ipsos poll has found. Then let’s hope not too much damage occurs while we are waiting.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fairfaxipsos-poll-shows-70-per-cent-support-for-samesex-marriage-among-those-certain-to-vote-20170911-gyewa6.html
    Malcolm Turnbull has been ¬accused of handing a “blank cheque” to the parliament after the government declared it would not move to provide religious protections before the same-sex-¬marriage survey is finalised. This is nobody’s problem than the government’s. Google.
    /national-affairs/samesexmarriage-postal-survey-without-detail-a-blank-cheque/news-story/88a0c77d05fa6c28f76a7e27866665dd

  13. Section 2 . . .

    NSW urgently needs a “systemic fix” of its water extraction policies after a scathing independent investigation into water theft found the state’s enforcement “ineffectual” and unprofessional. Barnaby won’t be seen for dust on this one!
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/systemic-fix-needed-for-nsw-water-management-damning-report-finds-20170911-gyeu6m.html
    Pope Francis on Monday questioned whether Donald Trump was “pro-life” following the US President’s decision to end a policy allowing young immigrants to stay in the United States.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/pope-francis-questions-whether-donald-trump-is-prolife-after-daca-decision-20170911-gyfelj.html
    AGL’s Liddell power station is a “grandmother” plant that shouldn’t receive funds more usefully invested elsewhere to improve Australia’s energy prospects, Christiana Figueres, the former United Nations climate chief, said.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/grandmother-plant-exun-climate-chief-christiana-figueres-has-advice-for-pm-20170910-gyerob.html
    AGL Energy chief executive Andy Vesey says building coal-fired power stations is no longer “economically rational”, committing to deliver a coal-free plan to avoid a market shortfall when AGL closes the Liddell coal-fired power station in NSW in 2022. Google.
    /business/mining-energy/agl-rejects-call-to-extend-coalfired-power-station/news-story/a4bc137dc43bc75593d326c720cadff4
    By maintaining the archaic Liddell power plant Malcolm Turnbull is only appeasing the fuel lobby and the right wing of the COALition — everyone else, even AGL is against it, writes Giles Parkinson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/turnbulls-abject-capitulation-to-the-coal-lobby-is-now-complete,10700
    Ben Oquist writes that confusion reigns over whether the government will, or can, keep the ageing power Liddell power station going. But there’s a much better way to ensure grid reliability.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/12/for-energy-security-the-failing-liddell-coal-plant-is-the-last-thing-we-need
    Not only did we not save $200 a year as Abbott promised, but energy prices have doubled since the Coalition scrapped the carbon tax; now, dropping subsidies for renewables is the latest thought bubble from the Nationals. John Passant reports.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/the-turnbull-government-has-run-out-of-energy,10706
    Ian Dunlop laments that scientific reticence allows politicians to neglect the real dangers we face. But waiting for perfect information means it will be too late to act.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/11/hostage-to-myopic-self-interest-climate-science-is-watered-down-under-political-scrutiny
    The Victorian government is considering forcing the electricity industry to re-regulate power prices in a move which could slice hundreds of dollars off household bills.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/energy-retailers-prepare-to-fight-radical-push-to-reregulate-electricity-prices-in-victoria-20170911-gyf3ui.html

  14. Section 3 . . .

    Irma and Harvey: very different storms, but both were affected by climate change.
    https://theconversation.com/irma-and-harvey-very-different-storms-but-both-affected-by-climate-change-83800
    Fake news and god’s wrath: extreme hurricane politics in the US.
    https://theconversation.com/fake-news-and-gods-wrath-extreme-hurricane-politics-in-the-us-83811
    David Campbell nicely takes out Abbott and his PC crap.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/confusion-reigns-on-what-is-politically-correct-and-what-isnt-20170911-gyf0cr.html
    Labor will step up its attacks on the Turnbull government over the legality of ministerial decisions made by three senior Nationals MPs, including Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, based on new legal advice from two eminent lawyers. Let’s see how Speaker Smith handles this.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/uncharted-territory-labor-readies-new-attack-on-nationals-trios-ministerial-decisions-20170911-gyewoo.html
    A confidentiality breach by the federal government’s $5 billion infrastructure body shows it is now considering loaning public money to two new rail lines supporting mining projects.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/confidential-documents-reveal-second-mining-rail-project-in-sights-of-5-billion-northern-australia-fund-20170907-gycvn9.html
    The knife edge on which many small businesses sit has been highlighted by research that shows just 50.7 per cent had positive cash flow as of June 2017. It’s getting hard out there.
    http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/finance/small-business-on-the-brink-with-only-half-recording-positive-cash-flow-20170911-gyeurw.html
    Yet another NSW local government heavy in trouble.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/exliberal-mayor-con-hindi-to-face-court-on-assault-matter-following-election-win-20170911-gyfazi.html
    And ANOTHER!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberal-lobbying-firm-engaged-after-minister-called-to-oppose-developer-20170910-gyekqg.html
    The SMH editorial strongly supports the recommendations of the Senate committee looking at building safety in the wake of the Grenfell Tower fire and has a good crack at Craig Laundy in the process.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/after-grenfell-time-to-act-on-australias-risky-buildings-20170911-gyf67q.html
    Psychiatrist Robert Llewellyn-Jones begins this piece with “The Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse that Julia Gillard launched in 2012 ends soon. As an abuse survivor and a practising psychiatrist treating many abuse survivors, I cannot stress too much how important it is to continue the commission’s work.” Google.
    /opinion/child-abuse-royal-commissions-work-must-continue/news-story/c0339f86b2a136464643c750edde0f9f

  15. Section 4 . . .

    Jenna Price tells us that the medical profession is pimping us out on behalf of shareholders. In terrifying news this week, it turns out that Virtus Health, which focuses on assisted reproduction such as IVF, gives its high-performing doctors a bonus if they do more than 400 cycles of IVF a year over three years. That’s more than 1200 eggs; 1200 hopes and fears.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/ivf-the-only-bonus-paid-should-be-a-baby-bonus-20170910-gyertn.html
    Meanwhile the Guardian reveals that pharmaceutical companies gave Australian doctors, nurses and pharmacists almost $12m in fees and expenses to attend conferences and give talks between November 2016 and April 2017.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/sep/12/pharmaceutical-companies-gave-12m-to-doctors-nurses-and-pharmacists
    As Hurricane Irma dawdles northwards, there were forecasts of dangerous storm surges in its wake, with Florida Governor Rick Scott warning: “The biggest thing you can do now is pray.” What WAS he saying?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/for-hurricane-irma-the-metrics-are-measured-in-millions-20170910-gyeppq.html

  16. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox asks us to remember the children.

    John Shakespeare on the poll standings of Turnbull and Morrison.

    Ron Tandberg and Trump’s use of superlatives.

    David Pope goes to the footy with Turnbull and baby Barnaby.

    Mark Knight also goes there with Malcolm.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/feb54a0eac5e8ce58cadb546cd30c70d?width=1024
    Broelman and a fake cartoon.

    Paul Zanetti and unity tickets.

    Matt Golding and rugby’s support for SSM.

    Jon Kudelka gives us Shrödinger’s ministers.

    Glen Le Lievre on drug testing welfare recipients.

    Pat Clement nails Turnbull on his multi-tasking limitation.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/f1ef93e5892ea821b86a583f9c47d0da
    David Rowe understands politicians.

    Ron Tandberg on the revelations about pork barrelling,
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Simon Letch unveils the home of Twiggy Forrest’s mooted rugby union competition.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/simon-letch-20090908-ffni.html

  17. Andy Vesey’s plan:

    Mr Vesey’s statement said renewables with gas back-up would be the favoured power source in the short-term, and beyond that it would be large-scale batteries supporting renewables.

    No coal, just renewables with gas peakers as a temporary measure while moving to batteries.
    _________________
    Looks very much like what Jay Weatherill is doing in SA!

  18. CTar1 @ #14 Tuesday, September 12th, 2017 – 7:32 am

    Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg said the government would only accept AGL’s replacement plan if the power were as reliable as coal in that it could be supplied upon demand.

    And all Mr Vesey said was

    “I was asked to take to the AGL board the government’s request to continue the operation of Liddell post-2022 for five years and/or sell Liddell, which I agreed to”.

    Nothing more, nothing less.

    What the Government is trying to do is block the conversion of Liddell into a renewable energy source. FFS.

  19. ‘There’s a slim chance this is all about being able to say to his party room that he’s explored other options, but a CET is the only way to go. ‘.
    I doubt it Zoom this guy doesn’t think beyond the next Facebook pic.

    TV add for the next election :
    Trumbull wearing his leather jacket in a helicopter, endlessly circling the Liddell power plant.

  20. Good Morning

    ABC news about to play footage of fight in parliament house corridors. Only preview information is police were not called and who the protagonists were. I did not catch their names.

  21. John Reidy

    Coupled with one recreating this scene from Dr Strangelove with Barnyard astride a large lump of coal instead of an atom bomb.

  22. BK

    Not sure it is the medical profession doing the pimping. My favoured medical practice now has a board of directors that includes a real estate agent, a carpenter and several financiers but not a single medical professional – even a retired former professional.

    Sadly I think the medicare model has been gamed by the greedy and must now be FIXED. I was all in favour of raising the rebate, for doctors but NOW I am not sure – the money will go to the Real estate guy, bankers and builder, not the Doctors who study hard for this and who do the actual work.

  23. Disgraceful that “Kill Bill” Massola could call it a win for Malcolm when Vesey strolled out and said (according to Coorey) that: “In this environment, we just don’t see new development of coal as economically rational even before factoring in a carbon cost”. Mr Vesey said that Liddell is an unreliable option.

  24. Seems Bannon isn’t going into the wilderness quietly.

    In his interview with Charlie Rose, Bannon strongly suggested that Trump’s firing of FBI Director James B. Comey was the biggest mistake in modern political history. And that’s not even reading too much into Bannon’s comments. He wasn’t baited into it, either; he clearly signed off on that characterization.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/09/11/steve-bannons-damning-admission-trump-firing-comey-may-be-biggest-mistake-in-modern-political-history/?undefined=&utm_term=.b3f6456e1ecc&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1

  25. And more.

    Former Trump strategist Stephen K. Bannon is planning to escalate his war with the GOP establishment, by promoting primary challengers who will run against GOP incumbents on a platform that is fully faithful to Trumpism, multiple news organizations are reporting today.

    This is a good raw political development for Democrats in advance of the 2018 midterms, as NBC’s First Read crew notes, because it could deepen divisions among Republicans and potentially replace incumbents with weaker GOP candidates in general elections.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2017/09/11/stephen-bannon-is-threatening-to-blow-up-the-republican-party/?undefined=&utm_term=.5e8df3714ef8&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1

  26. workmanalice: As of today, Malcolm Turnbull has been Prime Minister for the exact same amount of time as Tony Abbott was = 1 year and 362 days. pic.twitter.com/e3TbKcMnOW

  27. Trump Hits An Insane Level Of Corruption By Awarding Contract To Chinese Government Company

    The President Of The United States has awarded a contract to build one of his golf courses to a company majority owned by the Chinese government

    A major construction company owned by the Chinese government was hired to work on the latest Trump golf club development in Dubai despite a pledge from Donald Trump that his family business would not engage in any transactions with foreign government entities while he serves as president.

    Since Trump never divested or separated himself from his businesses, a company owned by the President has awarded a contract to the Chinese government.

    The Trump corruption machine never sleeps. Follow the money, and it is clear why Trump hasn’t fulfilled any of his promises to crack down on China or put American manufacturing first

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/11/trump-hits-insane-level-corruption-awarding-contract-chinese-government-company.html

  28. Turnbull trying REALLY hard to make the energy problem someone else’s problem. Wants AGL to find an answer instead of doing his job.

  29. Hah, even the Australian on its front page accepts that Vesey basically stiffed Malcolm. Yet Kill Bill Massola can’t see that. Pathetic.

  30. Morning all

    From previous thread

    Congratulations jenauthor. Hope it is a best seller for you!!!!

    BK

    Thanks for today’s reports.

    Zoomster

    As much as I don’t appreciate our Malcolm one iota, the plan B you set out, could well be it.

  31. Thats such a wonderful hole Turnbull has dug his team into. Even the media is finding it very hard to cover up just how big a hole it is.

  32. Thanks Vic – Publisher messaged from US this morn saying it might make the best seller list if I can get a few more international sales! Here’s hoping! 🙂

  33. Trump Disrespectfully Talks Though Moment Of Silence For 9/11 Victims At Pentagon

    Donald Trump talked through a scheduled moment of silence remembering 9/11 victims at the Pentagon.

    Taking Donald Trump out in public for a memorial service is like trying to take a small child to a funeral. The country should feel grateful that Trump didn’t start bragging about how the country overcame 9/11 with his Electoral College win.

    One year ago, the media was freaking out because Hillary Clinton got woozy at a 9/11 anniversary event, but now that America has a president who can’t even stand still and stop talking during a moment of silence the panic over a bit of dizziness seems even more absurd today than it was in 2016.

    Even when Trump stays on script, he finds little ways to reveal that he is unfit for the presidency

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/11/trump-disrespectfully-talks-moment-silence-911-victims-pentagon.html

  34. TTallebudgeraLurker

    In a world wholly comprised of solar (whatever form) and wind generation with operational but still potentially intermittent hydro generation linked together with the east coast HV network, would a significant number of large synchronous condensors (many 1000s of kVArs each) be needed for system voltage/frequency stability?

    Yes, for transient stability and voltage support (VAR injection).

    Ignore Trog, he’s confusing transients and primary frequency response, and not considering reactive support. If the system has no significant rotating mass, then the AC frequency will move too fast for any power electronics to stabilise it. FWIW, rotating mass instantaneously converts kinetic energy to electrical power, while a power electronics coupler is limited by the energy stored in its DC side capacitors; and an electric machines’s rotor has significanat thermal mass (copper windings) and can handle over-voltage of up to 3 times its ratings for periods of a few seconds, while power electronics would be fried, or tripped out. They are not comparable at scale.

  35. Thats such a wonderful hole Turnbull has dug his team into. Even the media is finding it very hard to cover up just how big a hole it is.

    Yep, there a similar size hole out the back of Liddell – an open cut mine.

Comments Page 1 of 38
1 2 38

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *