BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

New poll this week from Newspoll (better for the Coalition), Essential Research (worse) and YouGov (about the same) add up to no change at all on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, except that the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Western Australia. The leadership ratings from Newspoll cause Malcolm Turnbull to gain a little ground on preferred prime minister, but lose it on net approval. Full details at the bottom.

First though, some news on forthcoming by-elections, which will get dedicated pages and threads soon enough:

• A date is yet to be set for the by-election in the Victorian state seat of Northcote following the death of on August 23. There will presumably be no Liberal candidate, but the Greens are highly competitive in the seat, having fallen 6.0% short of unseating Richardson at the 2014 election. Clare Burns, a political organiser with the Victorian Trades Hall Council and former speech pathologist, has been preselected unopposed as Labor’s candidate. The Greens will hold a preselection ballot today.

• There are now three state by-elections looming in New South Wales, and the date for them has been set at October 14. Cootamundra and Blacktown were already on the cards, following the respective retirements of Nationals MP Katrina Hodgkinson and Labor MP John Robertson, and Murray was added to the list earlier this week after Nationals MP Adrian Piccoli announced his retirement.

And some localised polling snippets:

• There was a rare Northern Territory opinion poll a fortnight ago, conducted by MediaReach for the Northern Territory News and encompassing a sample of 1400. On the primary vote, the poll has Labor on 43%, compared with 42.2% last year; the Country Liberal Party on 38%, recovering from 31.8%; and “others” on 19%. The respondent-allocated preference result is 50-50, compared with 58.5-41.5 to Labor last year, which implies a near-perfect reversal of the 63-37 preference split in favour of Labor last year.

(UPDATE: I had a report here on Tony Windsor’s prospects on New England, but I wasn’t looking closely enough and it was actually from before the last election.)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

795 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

  1. GG:
    “Last time I looked, the world is in exactly the same spot as it always has been”

    At the center of the universe, with the sun revolving around it?

  2. The penalty for having 5 wives is that you also get 5 mothers in law!

    Oh, hah, hah, hah, hah, hah, hah, hah, hah,

    Oh, so fucking funny; splitting my sides, call a wambulance.

    Christ, what a cliche, GG. Do you get any better?

  3. Sorry I didn’t respond to those who offered up responses to my Stutchbury/Elvis comparison … I had a minor book launch lunch with some loyal readers.

    Lon Chaney is a little before my time but … yeah 🙂

  4. I really think the Monty Python Galaxy Song should be played at everyone’s funeral!
    Just to remind all the attendees.
    Magic to me from the first time i heard it.

  5. This week in 1989 was when the Hungarian Border Guards stopped policing the Austrian border and thousands of people from the German Democratic Republic crossed into Austria on their way to West Germany.

    Seems like a long time ago now.

  6. This postal survey really highlights LGBTIQetc. folk’s lowly position in our society. Could you imagine anti-mixed race marriage, anti-Jew, or even (overtly) anti-Muslim ads being aired on commercial TV in 2017?! Outrageous.

  7. Apparently, if same sex marriage is allowed it will be compulsory for boys to wear dresses to school. Or something.
    And a giant wombat will devour Devonport.

  8. CTaR1

    Way back, a long time ago, one of the guys in our potato picking gang was a Hungarian. He used to wear only boots and a pair of shorts. He had been shot up by the Soviets and his scars were impressive. My youthful self was frightened of him – he had a sort of repressed savagery about him. That was well back before 1989.

  9. You really have a problem, GG.

    You think your marriage was special.

    It wasn’t.

    It was registered by the State, and endosrsed by your favourite fairy.

    Yet, you think your marriage is somehow “different”.

    It’s not.

    Yet, by the binds of that marriage, you think you have the right to dictate everyone else’s marriage.

    You don’t.

    Simple.As.That.

  10. kezza2 @ #680 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 4:49 pm

    You really have a problem, GG.

    You think your marriage was special.

    It wasn’t.

    It was registered by the State, and endosrsed by your favourite fairy.

    Yet, you think your marriage is somehow “different”.

    It’s not.

    Yet, by the binds of that marriage, you think you have the right to dictate everyone else’s marriage.

    You don’t.

    Simple.As.That.

    Still haven’t found the question!

  11. Greensborough Growler @ #685 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:03 pm

    Player One @ #683 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:00 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #682 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 4:51 pm

    Still haven’t found the question!

    I think kezza is questioning your right to have your own opinion.

    Oh, I think she believes I have the right to an opinion with the caveat that it is the same as hers!

    Or perhaps she doesn’t think your opinion should be imposed on others.

  12. [Player One
    Greensborough Growler @ #682 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 4:51 pm

    Still haven’t found the question!

    I think kezza is questioning your right to have your own opinion.]

    I would have thought she was questioning the validity of having those beliefs imposed on anyone else.

  13. Rex Douglas @ #685 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:04 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #685 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:03 pm

    Player One @ #683 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:00 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #682 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 4:51 pm

    Still haven’t found the question!

    I think kezza is questioning your right to have your own opinion.

    Oh, I think she believes I have the right to an opinion with the caveat that it is the same as hers!

    Or perhaps she doesn’t think your opinion should be imposed on others.

    You seem to enjoy imposing your opinion here on PB.

  14. Greensborough Growler @ #689 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:06 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #685 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:04 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #685 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:03 pm

    Player One @ #683 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:00 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #682 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 4:51 pm

    Still haven’t found the question!

    I think kezza is questioning your right to have your own opinion.

    Oh, I think she believes I have the right to an opinion with the caveat that it is the same as hers!

    Or perhaps she doesn’t think your opinion should be imposed on others.

    You seem to enjoy imposing your opinion here on PB.

    No, I merely voice my opinion

  15. @GuardianAus
    ·
    12m
    Rainbow connection: tens of thousands say ‘I do’ to marriage equality

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/national/vic/2017/09/10/shorten-to-attend–yes–vote-rally-in-syd.amp.html

    “Thousands march in same sex marriage rallies”

    “Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has joined hundreds of people in Sydney’s CBD showing their support for sex marriage.”

    “Opposition leader Bill Shorten spoke in Sydney where hundreds have gathered to march for marriage equality.”

    Murdoch lying their asses off with fake news!

  16. zoidlord @ #693 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:10 pm

    @GuardianAus
    ·
    12m
    Rainbow connection: tens of thousands say ‘I do’ to marriage equality

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/national/vic/2017/09/10/shorten-to-attend–yes–vote-rally-in-syd.amp.html

    “Thousands march in same sex marriage rallies”

    “Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has joined hundreds of people in Sydney’s CBD showing their support for sex marriage.”

    “Opposition leader Bill Shorten spoke in Sydney where hundreds have gathered to march for marriage equality.”

    History shows that the bigger the crowd, the bigger the loss!

  17. zoidlord @ #694 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:10 pm

    @GuardianAus
    ·
    12m
    Rainbow connection: tens of thousands say ‘I do’ to marriage equality

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/national/vic/2017/09/10/shorten-to-attend–yes–vote-rally-in-syd.amp.html

    “Thousands march in same sex marriage rallies”

    “Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has joined hundreds of people in Sydney’s CBD showing their support for sex marriage.”

    “Opposition leader Bill Shorten spoke in Sydney where hundreds have gathered to march for marriage equality.”

    oh he’s wonderful isn’t he…

  18. Rex Douglas @ #695 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:12 pm

    zoidlord @ #694 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:10 pm

    @GuardianAus
    ·
    12m
    Rainbow connection: tens of thousands say ‘I do’ to marriage equality

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/national/vic/2017/09/10/shorten-to-attend–yes–vote-rally-in-syd.amp.html

    “Thousands march in same sex marriage rallies”

    “Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has joined hundreds of people in Sydney’s CBD showing their support for sex marriage.”

    “Opposition leader Bill Shorten spoke in Sydney where hundreds have gathered to march for marriage equality.”

    oh he’s wonderful isn’t he…

    I hope this is not an example of you imposing your opinion!

  19. @GG

    Don’t think you get the point, Murdoch is lying about crowd numbers.

    And NASA news:

    Carl Zimmer @carlzimmer
    ·
    14h
    Not a joke: NASA nominee wants to strip “expansion of human knowledge” about space & Earth from NASA objectives

  20. Greensborough Growler @ #697 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:14 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #695 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:12 pm

    zoidlord @ #694 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:10 pm

    @GuardianAus
    ·
    12m
    Rainbow connection: tens of thousands say ‘I do’ to marriage equality

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/national/vic/2017/09/10/shorten-to-attend–yes–vote-rally-in-syd.amp.html

    “Thousands march in same sex marriage rallies”

    “Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has joined hundreds of people in Sydney’s CBD showing their support for sex marriage.”

    “Opposition leader Bill Shorten spoke in Sydney where hundreds have gathered to march for marriage equality.”

    oh he’s wonderful isn’t he…

    I hope this is not an example of you imposing your opinion!

    merely voicing my opinion… that’s he’s wonderful

    I’m legally obliged to impose my opinion on election day

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *