BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

New poll this week from Newspoll (better for the Coalition), Essential Research (worse) and YouGov (about the same) add up to no change at all on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, except that the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Western Australia. The leadership ratings from Newspoll cause Malcolm Turnbull to gain a little ground on preferred prime minister, but lose it on net approval. Full details at the bottom.

First though, some news on forthcoming by-elections, which will get dedicated pages and threads soon enough:

• A date is yet to be set for the by-election in the Victorian state seat of Northcote following the death of on August 23. There will presumably be no Liberal candidate, but the Greens are highly competitive in the seat, having fallen 6.0% short of unseating Richardson at the 2014 election. Clare Burns, a political organiser with the Victorian Trades Hall Council and former speech pathologist, has been preselected unopposed as Labor’s candidate. The Greens will hold a preselection ballot today.

• There are now three state by-elections looming in New South Wales, and the date for them has been set at October 14. Cootamundra and Blacktown were already on the cards, following the respective retirements of Nationals MP Katrina Hodgkinson and Labor MP John Robertson, and Murray was added to the list earlier this week after Nationals MP Adrian Piccoli announced his retirement.

And some localised polling snippets:

• There was a rare Northern Territory opinion poll a fortnight ago, conducted by MediaReach for the Northern Territory News and encompassing a sample of 1400. On the primary vote, the poll has Labor on 43%, compared with 42.2% last year; the Country Liberal Party on 38%, recovering from 31.8%; and “others” on 19%. The respondent-allocated preference result is 50-50, compared with 58.5-41.5 to Labor last year, which implies a near-perfect reversal of the 63-37 preference split in favour of Labor last year.

(UPDATE: I had a report here on Tony Windsor’s prospects on New England, but I wasn’t looking closely enough and it was actually from before the last election.)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

795 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

  1. Player One @ #561 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 10:40 am

    grimace @ #546 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 12:25 pm

    I downloaded the source data to that graph, which is where I got the numbers from.

    Me too. I do so each month because it constantly amazes me how reality keeps utterly failing to keep up with the predictions so confidently made here all the time on PB! 🙂

    You’re referring specifically to one person, but let’s not start an arguement.

    On monthly installed kW growth, YTD June 17 is up 59% on the same period last year for Australia (444MW and 279MW respectively). WA, which is my state of interest is up 73% (83MW and 48MW respectively).

    Looking at the top 10 suburbs in Perth, which the last time I saw stats which showed residential rooftop penetration of just under 40%, the growth was 71%. For the top 10 suburbs, I would have expected a slowdown in growth for the top 10 suburbs, however, it seems the growth of residential PV will be similar to mobile phones and then smartphones, which became ubiquitous very quickly.

    What I find annoying about this data is that retrospective adjustemnts get made to it, which are almost always upwards, and that is not clearly stated on the download page or anywhere in the data file.

  2. grimace, what I see in the data is a slow down (saturation) in rooftop solar matched by a growth in large scale solar.
    Nothing special going on. And like I said to P1, none of this is predictive.

  3. lizzie @ #588 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 1:31 pm

    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/04/10/the-experts-agree-turnbulls-nbn-is-a-national-tragedy/

    In a local example, a friends’ almost new NBN suddenly cut out. After 3 days of phone calls, a technician arrived, confirmed that their in-house system was working, but the fault was in the old rotted copper connection. Before his departure, he ventured the opinion that their whole area was in the same parlous state.

    Thanks, Mal.

    That link is a bit stale. Was back in April.

  4. cud chewer @ #604 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 2:04 pm

    grimace, what I see in the data is a slow down (saturation) in rooftop solar matched by a growth in large scale

    solar.
    Nothing special going on. And like I said to P1, none of this is predictive.

    One thing is for sure, you make the same prediction just about every day and the reality never supports that prediction.

  5. But, he’s right to point out that the implications of the proposed change to the Law is not simple and that the argument that far reaching social change will not arise from the change is a lie.

    Which boils down to fear/loathing of gay people. Stopping marriage equality doesn’t stop “far reaching social change”. All it does is give religious people the fuzzy feeling that they still have the power to hurt gay people.

  6. cud chewer @ #608 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 2:08 pm

    But, he’s right to point out that the implications of the proposed change to the Law is not

    simple and that the argument that far reaching social change will not arise from the change is a lie.

    Which boils down to fear/loathing of gay people. Stopping marriage equality doesn’t stop “far reaching social change”. All it does is give religious people the fuzzy feeling that they still have the power to hurt gay people.

    I’ll remind you that ME is a bullshit term concocted by marketing gurus to conflate two unrelated words. This then encourages the weak minded to believe they are victims and that they have a cause.

    The latest poll shows the “Yes” vote is declining and the proportion of people that will actually participate is too. If the final outcome is a 50% participation and 55% Vote Yes, the outcome is sufficiently grey to encourage the naysayers to soldier on.

    The entry of John Howard in a very decisive way will shape the final outcome regardless of your disdain for him.

  7. Wasn’t there a Perth team in the Superleague civil war days but deleted when NRL was created? Nevertheless I can’t see League expanding wholeheartedly into WA when there are other traditional League areas still wanting admission into NRL. Maybe more NRL games played in Perth but no local team.

    I am not sure why people waste money trying to establish league and union clubs in WA. They inevitably wither and die because very few people in WA are interested.

    For all the alleged distress about the demise of the Western Force, I have never heard, either at work or socially, any discussion of the team, the competition. I can’t name a single Western Force player and I don’t know anyone that could.

  8. grimace @ #603 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 1:56 pm

    Player One @ #561 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 10:40 am

    grimace @ #546 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 12:25 pm

    I downloaded the source data to that graph, which is where I got the numbers from.

    Me too. I do so each month because it constantly amazes me how reality keeps utterly failing to keep up with the predictions so confidently made here all the time on PB! 🙂

    You’re referring specifically to one person, but let’s not start an arguement.

    Agreed.

    On monthly installed kW growth, YTD June 17 is up 59% on the same period last year for Australia (444MW and 279MW respectively). WA, which is my state of interest is up 73% (83MW and 48MW respectively).

    Looking at the top 10 suburbs in Perth, which the last time I saw stats which showed residential rooftop penetration of just under 40%, the growth was 71%. For the top 10 suburbs, I would have expected a slowdown in growth for the top 10 suburbs, however, it seems the growth of residential PV will be similar to mobile phones and then smartphones, which became ubiquitous very quickly.

    What we have with this data is multiple different and contradictory influences, which seem to almost completely cancel each other out. For instance, there was a step-change a while ago when (I think) higher capacity panels became widely available at a cheaper price, which increased the average size of each installation – even as less installs were being performed overall for various unrelated reasons (such as lower feed-in tariffs).

    I expect this “balancing act” will continue even if the precise reasons for it vary. For instance, as all the easily accessible north-facing rooftops become filled with panels, the size of new installations, and their kW output, may tend to become slightly smaller even if the total number of installations climbs again.

    What I find annoying about this data is that retrospective adjustemnts get made to it, which are almost always upwards, and that is not clearly stated on the download page or anywhere in the data file.

    This is the nature of the beast. This data is collected from many distributed sources, so naturally it comes in over time, and is constantly being retrospectively adjusted slightly upwards. But I have been monitoring this also, and the adjustments seem fairly consistent (diminishing slightly for each successive past month exactly as you would expect) and do not seem to alter the overall trend significantly. The most recent actual figures are always slightly below what you might forecast, and are then rectified in successive coming months. This means that if there was a significant change it could take a month or two for its scale to become fully evident in the graph – but there has been no such change over the past 18 months or so.

    It is worth noting that the APVI (who generate the graph I posted) actually take this kind of thing into account, and offer estimated as well as actual numbers, going back 12 months from the present. This means this graph is probably more accurate than the raw numbers.

    When I said I was amazed at how linear the final results are, I was not being wholly facetious – it is interesting that with all the conflicting influences that the final figures have been so consistent for so long. The few “big” effects, which are to do with various policy changes, are listed on the page I posted (below the graph), and once you know when they occurred their effects on the graph can easily be detected – but they do not affect the overall graph very much, or for very long.

  9. GG

    And I’ll remind you that ME is about anti-discrimination.

    Just as we didn’t call a bus something else just because black people could ride on it, so we shan’t call the civil union between males and females, or males and males, or females and females, anything less than marriage.

    Your own marriage is a civil union, endorsed by the church, through the auspices of the State in which you were married.

    Get over it. You’re not special.

  10. Jolyon Wagg
    18,000 attended the game last night. Dont reckon many of them flew in for the occasion.

    And there are 20 something thousand South African expats living in Perth.

    Games can co-exist. Your post reminded me of Sydney when the Swans started.

  11. lizzie @ #614 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 2:37 pm

    GG

    Are you arguing that all gays are weak minded?
    I think that social change began when homosexuals were no longer considered criminals.

    Didn’t say that at all!

    Weak minded is forming opinions based on manipulative marketing campaigns. I don’t believe that homosexuals are any more susceptible to these sorts of campaigns than the rest of the population. There are plenty of non-Homosexuals that are sipping on the cool aid on this particular issue.

  12. kezza2 @ #616 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 2:42 pm

    GG

    And I’ll remind you that ME is about anti-discrimination.

    Just as we didn’t call a bus something else just because black people could ride on it, so we shan’t call the civil union between males and females, or males and males, or females and females, anything less than marriage.

    Your own marriage is a civil union, endorsed by the church, through the auspices of the State in which you were married.

    Get over it. You’re not special.

    Um, I have argued here many time that same sex coupling is not a crime and there are in fact 46,000 such couplings as reported by the last Census. This represents about 0.38% of the population. So, it’s not really an issue for most people.

    I have also agreed that people should be able to have those relationships civilly registered if that is what they wish.

  13. GG

    Your own marriage is State registered.

    It’s nothing to do with any Church.

    Stop trying to pretend your marriage is anything but a civil marriage.

  14. Greensborough Growler

    Bill Shorten finds an arsehole with just one hand!

    *****************************

    Good find, GG – best laugh I had for today !!!!!

  15. Jolyon
    **There was a game last night?**
    Apparently there was one here in Adelaide too. I heard from BW that a team cheated a penalty to win. But…. meh.

  16. GG

    It’s a bit sad, isn’t it, when a bloke who thought his wedded bliss was blessed by a fairy, now understands that his only claim to fame is a marriage made in religion, which was, in fact, endorsed by the State, through the auspices of the the Catholic Church.

    Your civil union, GG, was blessed by a Church, but endorsed the the State.

    As I said, get over it. You’re nothing special. Just a run-of-the-mill married bloke.

    And who the fuck do you think you are to tell anyone else about their marriage.

    A nobody.

  17. kezza2 @ #631 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 3:06 pm

    GG

    It’s a bit sad, isn’t it, when a bloke who thought his wedded bliss was blessed by a fairy, now understands that his only claim to fame is a marriage made in religion, which was, in fact, endorsed by the State, through the auspices of the the Catholic Church.

    Your civil union, GG, was blessed by a Church, but endorsed the the State.

    As I said, get over it. You’re nothing special. Just a run-of-the-mill married bloke.

    And who the fuck do you think you are to tell anyone else about their marriage.

    A nobody.

    I bet you’re the poster girl for a respectful debate!

  18. GG the term Marriage Equality sums up the issue precisely. Its about Marriage and its about Equality.

    Also, you’re arguing that there should be a “civil” marriage for gay people. What is your marriage if not a civil marriage? Its a marriage under the law of Australia. One that gay people can’t have. That’s what is meant by equality.

    I’m happy for you to create a new “civil union” some such bullshit. So long as both gay and straight people have to sign the same forms.

    But that’s not what you’re after. You’re after a system that tells gay people that they are different. That they are lesser persons. This is also what is meant by equality. Religious fanatics have been pushing long and hard to punish gay people because they hate gay people. This is just the same process. Its hate and fear. There’s nothing nice about it.

  19. lizzie @ #615 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 2:37 pm

    GG

    Are you arguing that all gays are weak minded?
    I think that social change began when homosexuals were no longer considered criminals.

    I am not sure what the motivation for criminality was, but in the armed services they were considered to be a threat to discipline.
    However, my father in his latter years confided that many served during WWII, including in his unit, their inclinations were widely known, and the attitude of him and his colleagues was surprisingly ‘liberal’. Basically, they serve their country like the rest of us, they wear the same uniform, they take the same risks, they are not bothering anyone, so treat them like anyone else. Must say I was quite surprised, but then dad did mention a number of such attitudes in his latter years.

  20. cud chewer @ #633 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 3:12 pm

    GG the term Marriage Equality sums up the issue precisely. Its about Marriage and its about Equality.

    Also, you’re arguing that there should be a “civil” marriage for gay people. What is your marriage if not a civil marriage? Its a marriage under the law of Australia. One that gay people can’t have. That’s what is meant by equality.

    I’m happy for you to create a new “civil union” some such bullshit. So long as both gay and straight people have to sign the same forms.

    But that’s not what you’re after. You’re after a system that tells gay people that they are different. That they are lesser persons. This is also what is meant by equality. Religious fanatics have been pushing long and hard to punish gay people because they hate gay people. This is just the same process. Its hate and fear. There’s nothing nice about it.

    You’re sipping on that Cool Aid comrade. It seems to me the only person using the term fear and loathing is you. Perhaps that’s how you feel about yourself.

  21. kezza2 @ #617 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 2:42 pm

    GG

    And I’ll remind you that ME is about anti-discrimination.

    Just as we didn’t call a bus something else just because black people could ride on it, so we shan’t call the civil union between males and females, or males and males, or females and females, anything less than marriage.

    Your own marriage is a civil union, endorsed by the church, through the auspices of the State in which you were married.

    Get over it. You’re not special.

    Good analogy Kezza.

    Speaking of buses, trams and trains, it is not so long ago that women were not allowed to drive them. Now no-one cares, I see train drivers in a group at Flinders St station and the women seem to be just part of the group. And the union for buses and trams is led by a woman.

    The world moves on. GG doesn’t.

  22. kezza, its pointless trying to have anything like a conversation with GG when the subject matter touches on the content of that part of his brain/memories that was set down while he was being brainwashed as a child. On such matters all semblance of decency or normal human empathy ceases to operate, and he professes weird beliefs/obsessions. In witch burning days he would have been in the front row. He still supports the Roman Paedophile Protection Society, and Pell, for doG’s sake!

  23. Simon Katich @ #618 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 2:42 pm

    Joylon Wagg
    18,000 attended the game last night. Dont reckon many of them flew in for the occasion.

    And there are 20 something thousand South African expats living in Perth.

    Games can co-exist. Your post reminded me of Sydney when the Swans started.

    And probably stacks of Kiwis too.
    Pity the AFL contagion spread from Victoria. It should have been quarantined.

  24. cud chewer @ #634 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 3:12 pm

    I’m happy for you to create a new “civil union” some such bullshit. So long as both gay and straight people have to sign the same forms.

    Many of us actually proposed this early on, as what seemed like a reasonable solution that should be perfectly acceptable to all sides.

    But it turns out that not all equality is equal. Or something like that.

  25. Yabba88 @ #639 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 3:20 pm

    kezza, its pointless trying to have anything like a conversation with GG when the subject matter touches on the content of that part of his brain/memories that was set down while he was being brainwashed as a child. On such matters all semblance of decency or normal human empathy ceases to operate, and he professes weird beliefs/obsessions. In witch burning days he would have been in the front row. He still supports the Roman Paedophile Protection Society, and Pell, for doG’s sake!

    Is this the ‘respectful debate’ we’ve heard so much about?

    If so, I have to say that I’m not that impressed.

  26. GG

    Some peeps seem to think that the new law will place some restrictions on ‘straights’ getting married. Is that your (and Howard’s) belief?

  27. Yabba88 @ #638 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 3:20 pm

    kezza, its pointless trying to have anything like a conversation with GG when the subject matter touches on the content of that part of his brain/memories that was set down while he was being brainwashed as a child. On such matters all semblance of decency or normal human empathy ceases to operate, and he professes weird beliefs/obsessions. In witch burning days he would have been in the front row. He still supports the Roman Paedophile Protection Society, and Pell, for doG’s sake!

  28. Yabba88 @ #638 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 3:20 pm

    kezza, its pointless trying to have anything like a conversation with GG when the subject matter touches on the content of that part of his brain/memories that was set down while he was being brainwashed as a child. On such matters all semblance of decency or normal human empathy ceases to operate, and he professes weird beliefs/obsessions. In witch burning days he would have been in the front row. He still supports the Roman Paedophile Protection Society, and Pell, for doG’s sake!

    I feel the same trying to discuss politics with the alt-Shorten

  29. P1, There is a history to this, of course. Over many years. I have no respect for GG’s sky fairy, paedophile protecting mental detritus when he spews it forth, because of the pain and anguish it causes, and has caused to so many, including dear friends of mine.

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