New poll this week from Newspoll (better for the Coalition), Essential Research (worse) and YouGov (about the same) add up to no change at all on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, except that the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Western Australia. The leadership ratings from Newspoll cause Malcolm Turnbull to gain a little ground on preferred prime minister, but lose it on net approval. Full details at the bottom.
First though, some news on forthcoming by-elections, which will get dedicated pages and threads soon enough:
• A date is yet to be set for the by-election in the Victorian state seat of Northcote following the death of on August 23. There will presumably be no Liberal candidate, but the Greens are highly competitive in the seat, having fallen 6.0% short of unseating Richardson at the 2014 election. Clare Burns, a political organiser with the Victorian Trades Hall Council and former speech pathologist, has been preselected unopposed as Labor’s candidate. The Greens will hold a preselection ballot today.
• There are now three state by-elections looming in New South Wales, and the date for them has been set at October 14. Cootamundra and Blacktown were already on the cards, following the respective retirements of Nationals MP Katrina Hodgkinson and Labor MP John Robertson, and Murray was added to the list earlier this week after Nationals MP Adrian Piccoli announced his retirement.
And some localised polling snippets:
• There was a rare Northern Territory opinion poll a fortnight ago, conducted by MediaReach for the Northern Territory News and encompassing a sample of 1400. On the primary vote, the poll has Labor on 43%, compared with 42.2% last year; the Country Liberal Party on 38%, recovering from 31.8%; and “others” on 19%. The respondent-allocated preference result is 50-50, compared with 58.5-41.5 to Labor last year, which implies a near-perfect reversal of the 63-37 preference split in favour of Labor last year.
• (UPDATE: I had a report here on Tony Windsor’s prospects on New England, but I wasn’t looking closely enough and it was actually from before the last election.)
Rex on Tingle
Since the advent of Turnbull she has been heralding the dawn of a great new government. From backpacker taxes to the last budget, or just about everything else Turnbull has stuffed up. The word “masterstroke” was invented for her “analysis ” of Turnbull, and cannot be applied too liberally.
During this period the L-NP TPP has gone from >55% to <47%.
Analyse that.
lizzie
A touch of Lon Chaney ? 🙂
**When are they going to hang, draw and quarter … the umpie who allowed Shuey to milk a finals-winning free kick**
You will find the plans for this are taking shape in a Port Adelaide pub as we speak.
One factor in the ‘brown out’ last summer in NSW where the aluminum plant at Tomago was taken off line was the Liddel power plant, it wasn’t running anywhere near record full capacity due to technical issues.
Even when compared with other 50 year old plants it is a dud.
Labor’s response is politics , which from a political party in opposition, shouldn’t surprise.
Boerwar @ #547 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 12:26 pm
Perhaps the Greens Party will once again give the keys to the Lodge to Labor on condition they disregard their dirty energy union donators and transition workers to clean energy jobs.
This could only work however if there was no Rudd-like destroyer lurking in the ranks.
.
poroti @ #552 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 12:30 pm
😆
Rex Douglas @ #532 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 12:04 pm
It is hard not to employ words like ‘dimwit’ when responding to you.
Coal fired power stations are not going to be all turned off overnight, but rest assured, they will be shut down as soon as feasible with a Labor Govt.
Part of that feasibility is having sufficient renewable generation and storage in place. Until that is so, coal will be in the mix.
Of course there are alternatives, like build new coal power stations (LNP) or build new base-load gas power stations (the P1 fantasy). Either of these will have a life of 30 – 50 years so needs to be avoided.
Of course the Backpacker tax, the passing of which Tingle saw as the last barnacle between Turnbull and “clean air’ for his brilliant agenda, was just another tired old xenophobic dog whistle from the LNP. Not much analysis was put into that.
The problem with the “foreigner bashing” that was really driving the Backpacker tax, was that they didn’t stop and think about how a large chunk of their own base actually need the labour backpackers provide and Australian’s don’t want to do.
Then the Greens got sucked into passing it because they got $100 mill for something or other, money that was just as quickly slashed from another program they approve of.
The only good analysis of Turnbull is that everything he touches turns to crap.
**It is hard not to employ words like ‘dimwit’ when responding to you.**
You could try.
grimace @ #546 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 12:25 pm
Me too. I do so each month because it constantly amazes me how reality keeps utterly failing to keep up with the predictions so confidently made here all the time on PB! 🙂
That hurricane link is:
https://youtu.be/hGD1byu7gJc
LIVE video looking from roof top of Two Friends Patio Restaurant toward the corner of Duval and Front Street. Key West Florida.
But of course
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-10/logging-halt-would-boost-victorian-economy-study-finds/8887088
the greatest moral challenge of Bill Shorten’s time… 😆
Thanks Y88
I have the sound on in the background to try and get a bit of feel for what the acoustics are like.
But I can’t find a reference to decibel spread during a hurricane.
This is what it looks like in day time, without hurricane:
https://www.google.com.au/maps/place/Duval+St+%26+Front+St,+Key+West,+FL+33040,+USA/@24.5604354,-81.8056936,3a,75y,84.07h,92.52t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1stSokeHnGIA9z-r6p0ZvpLQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656!4m5!3m4!1s0x88d1b6ec82ead4a9:0x31c94d83e33fa394!8m2!3d24.5602065!4d-81.8060688
Re: Stutchbury
I was probably thinking more along the lines of John Barrymore:
ItzaDream @ #521 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 11:49 am
Point 1. Talking to TV enables one to practice ones store of suitable words to describe out of favour politicians and other unworthies.
Point 2. Your elderly mother is quite right. The ladies hockey should not be interrupted simply because various individuals are not interested.
Keep up the good work (whatever that is).
😜
Y88
Good work! It looks like the Irma eyewall is going to hit the keys not far from Two Friends.
Simon Katich @ #561 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 12:40 pm
I did. I was remarkably restrained.
For some reason I recorded and have just been watching the detective series Rizzoli & Isles. Truly the Yanks have no bloody idea of how to make believable and watchable TV crime programs. There may some exceptions.
I see bemused is back to personal attacks as he’s losing another debate.
Thanks for those links Yabba.
Rex Douglas @ #573 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 12:57 pm
No sunshine, I refrained from calling you a ‘dimwit’ or anything else that fits.
Y88
We need someone to get out on the roof and clean the camera lens.
At the marriage equality rally at Sydney town hall. Looks like a good crowd, but hard to tell from within the crowd. Looks like the knitting nanas are here.
Oh. The power just went out at the Two Friends Patio. Just two points of light and some reflections thereof left.
Oakeshott Country @ #548 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 12:27 pm
Wasn’t there a Perth team in the Superleague civil war days but deleted when NRL was created? Nevertheless I can’t see League expanding wholeheartedly into WA when there are other traditional League areas still wanting admission into NRL. Maybe more NRL games played in Perth but no local team.
Yes there was a Perth RL team in Super League, the ‘Reds’, I think.
Latest Irma forecast
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/09/09/as-irma-churned-toward-their-state-two-florida-republicans-voted-against-hurricane-relief-bill/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_lawmakersirma843pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.980e1be4ff5e
BK
For some reason I recorded and have just been watching the detective series Rizzoli & Isles. Truly the Yanks have no bloody idea of how to make believable and watchable TV crime programs. There may some exceptions.
****************************
Apart from the early B/W TV crime programs “Untouchables/Dragnet” etc – I did enjoy the whole US series of “Hill Street Blues” and “Homicide – Life On The Streets” ………. and more recently, The Wire ( fantastic show )
…. and BK, you put me onto True Detective ……. and Narcos is really good too …… so is Bosch ….
For Canada – Murdoch Mysteries
I find the European/Scandanavian ones are exceptionally good – The Bridge ( Bron/Broen) – The Killing – Spiral – Witnesses – Braquo ……… are just some that I have seen, BK – and can recommend if you have not already seen them
John Reidy @ #579 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 1:11 pm
There was also one in Adelaide called the Rams. Used to get publicity in the Murdoch Advertiser with the page heading ‘RamPage”
John Howard has called for proposed same-sex marriage legislation, including full protections for parents, religion and free speech, to be produced before the postal survey vote closes in November, as he launches his support for the No campaign.
The former prime minister said yesterday it was disingenuous for the Yes campaign to argue that changing the law to include same-sex marriage did not affect other rights and that the survey involved a simple yes/no question.
“I respect the Yes campaign arguments, but this is not about a single right and there are conflicting rights,”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/samesex-marriage-survey-john-howard-kickstarts-the-no-case/news-story/da6ca4cc0e4bc5c6aebda25a753917ba
GG
Yo! I was hoping that you hadn’t been driven from the blog by the up front and personals.
Greensborough Growler @ #583 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 1:21 pm
Didn’t seem to exercise his mind when he made the changes to the definition of marriage during his reign. Good old honest John.
Storm surge of up to 15ft expected.
Just as well that Florida’s nuclear power plants have prepared for storm surge protection of 20ft.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/04/10/the-experts-agree-turnbulls-nbn-is-a-national-tragedy/
In a local example, a friends’ almost new NBN suddenly cut out. After 3 days of phone calls, a technician arrived, confirmed that their in-house system was working, but the fault was in the old rotted copper connection. Before his departure, he ventured the opinion that their whole area was in the same parlous state.
Thanks, Mal.
Hill Street Blues. I used to stay up very late as a kid to watch it. Awesome theme music (a little dated).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqWYKGkRBKw
Lowball insurance estimate for Irma: $15 billion. Highball: $50 billion.
But I reckon that is a bit prem.
Estimates for Harvey: around $100 billion.
Live vid from Miami:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/c/live/Live_look_from_Miami_as_Hurricane_Irma_hurls_toward_Florida/59b417c4e4b092307d25873d?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_no-name%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
Theme composed by Mike Post who was prolific and successful with theme music in that era.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Post
Mike Post (born Leland Michael Postil, September 29, 1944 in Berkeley, California) is an American composer, best known for his TV theme songs for such series as Law & Order, Law & Order: SVU, The A-Team, NYPD Blue, Renegade, The Rockford Files, L.A. Law, Quantum Leap, Magnum, P.I., and Hill Street Blues.
c
Thanks.
Boerwar @ #584 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 1:24 pm
Nah. It’s just that I don’t see the point of repeating myself ad nauseum about the various topics that interest me.
I say what I want to say and move on.
I’m comfortable with others having different POV. But, I do find the pack attacks that dominate here on PB fairly boring these days.
blob:https://www.washingtonpost.com/9c397c8f-dda2-4952-abc6-451226a71cbd
Boerwar @ #589 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 1:37 pm
They should name the Hurricanes after those that are causing them. Hurricane Monckton, Hurricane Exxon etc….
Rex
No-one loses a debate with you. It’s like shooting fish in a barrel.
As a meteorologist, there are things you learn in textbooks that you may never see in person. You know they happen theoretically, but the chances of seeing the most extraordinary weather phenomena are slim to none.
This is one of those things — a hurricane strong enough to change the shape of an ocean.
Twitter user @Kaydi_K shared this video Saturday afternoon, and I knew right away that even though it looked as though it couldn’t be possible, it was absolutely legit.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-is-literally-sucking-the-water-away-from-shorelines/?tid=pm_pop&utm_term=.9207ba4eca0d
Something’s gone wonky with the Key West feed.
It’s Time @ #585 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 1:25 pm
But, he’s right to point out that the implications of the proposed change to the Law is not simple and that the argument that far reaching social change will not arise from the change is a lie.