BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

New poll this week from Newspoll (better for the Coalition), Essential Research (worse) and YouGov (about the same) add up to no change at all on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, except that the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Western Australia. The leadership ratings from Newspoll cause Malcolm Turnbull to gain a little ground on preferred prime minister, but lose it on net approval. Full details at the bottom.

First though, some news on forthcoming by-elections, which will get dedicated pages and threads soon enough:

• A date is yet to be set for the by-election in the Victorian state seat of Northcote following the death of on August 23. There will presumably be no Liberal candidate, but the Greens are highly competitive in the seat, having fallen 6.0% short of unseating Richardson at the 2014 election. Clare Burns, a political organiser with the Victorian Trades Hall Council and former speech pathologist, has been preselected unopposed as Labor’s candidate. The Greens will hold a preselection ballot today.

• There are now three state by-elections looming in New South Wales, and the date for them has been set at October 14. Cootamundra and Blacktown were already on the cards, following the respective retirements of Nationals MP Katrina Hodgkinson and Labor MP John Robertson, and Murray was added to the list earlier this week after Nationals MP Adrian Piccoli announced his retirement.

And some localised polling snippets:

• There was a rare Northern Territory opinion poll a fortnight ago, conducted by MediaReach for the Northern Territory News and encompassing a sample of 1400. On the primary vote, the poll has Labor on 43%, compared with 42.2% last year; the Country Liberal Party on 38%, recovering from 31.8%; and “others” on 19%. The respondent-allocated preference result is 50-50, compared with 58.5-41.5 to Labor last year, which implies a near-perfect reversal of the 63-37 preference split in favour of Labor last year.

(UPDATE: I had a report here on Tony Windsor’s prospects on New England, but I wasn’t looking closely enough and it was actually from before the last election.)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

795 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

  1. Rex on Tingle

    She’s a brilliant political analyst.

    Since the advent of Turnbull she has been heralding the dawn of a great new government. From backpacker taxes to the last budget, or just about everything else Turnbull has stuffed up. The word “masterstroke” was invented for her “analysis ” of Turnbull, and cannot be applied too liberally.

    During this period the L-NP TPP has gone from >55% to <47%.

    Analyse that.

  2. **When are they going to hang, draw and quarter … the umpie who allowed Shuey to milk a finals-winning free kick**
    You will find the plans for this are taking shape in a Port Adelaide pub as we speak.

  3. One factor in the ‘brown out’ last summer in NSW where the aluminum plant at Tomago was taken off line was the Liddel power plant, it wasn’t running anywhere near record full capacity due to technical issues.
    Even when compared with other 50 year old plants it is a dud.

    Labor’s response is politics , which from a political party in opposition, shouldn’t surprise.

  4. Boerwar @ #547 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 12:26 pm

    The ugly fact is that Labor is stuck with the consequences of Coalition’s Coal Fervor over the past three decades.

    Labor will have to do the best it can with the Mother of All Coalition Messes.

    Based on past climate policy performance we can be sure that the Greens will do their best to assist the Coalition against their common enemy.

    Perhaps the Greens Party will once again give the keys to the Lodge to Labor on condition they disregard their dirty energy union donators and transition workers to clean energy jobs.

    This could only work however if there was no Rudd-like destroyer lurking in the ranks.

  5. Rex Douglas @ #532 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 12:04 pm

    bemused @ #529 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 12:01 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #529 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 11:57 am

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/labor-hedges-on-coal-fired-power-station-ng-s-1770583

    …”With the Liddell power station, it’s 50 years old. What car do (people) drive that is 50 years old?” Mr Shorten told reporters in Melbourne on Friday.
    “If something can be done, which is commercial, Labor is not going to immediately rule that out.

    Clinging to dirty energy production.

    Said in the knowledge that most likely nothing can be done that is commercial.

    You just hope that’s the case.

    From the horses mouth, the ALP aren’t ruling out supporting the continuation of dirty energy production.

    It is hard not to employ words like ‘dimwit’ when responding to you.
    Coal fired power stations are not going to be all turned off overnight, but rest assured, they will be shut down as soon as feasible with a Labor Govt.
    Part of that feasibility is having sufficient renewable generation and storage in place. Until that is so, coal will be in the mix.
    Of course there are alternatives, like build new coal power stations (LNP) or build new base-load gas power stations (the P1 fantasy). Either of these will have a life of 30 – 50 years so needs to be avoided.

  6. Of course the Backpacker tax, the passing of which Tingle saw as the last barnacle between Turnbull and “clean air’ for his brilliant agenda, was just another tired old xenophobic dog whistle from the LNP. Not much analysis was put into that.

    The problem with the “foreigner bashing” that was really driving the Backpacker tax, was that they didn’t stop and think about how a large chunk of their own base actually need the labour backpackers provide and Australian’s don’t want to do.

    Then the Greens got sucked into passing it because they got $100 mill for something or other, money that was just as quickly slashed from another program they approve of.

    The only good analysis of Turnbull is that everything he touches turns to crap.

  7. Victoria’s central highlands are essential to protecting Melbourne’s water supply and also contributing $260 million a year to the tourism economy, a new study has found.

    The report from the Australian National University (ANU) used an international method recognised by the United Nations to value the ecosystem in the central highlands — an area that spreads north and east of Healesville.

    The study estimates the central highlands add $310 million of economic value to the state’s water supply and $260 million to tourism, while the controversial native logging industry is worth just $12 million.

    A study by Deloitte for the state-owned VicForests last year found native logging and processing helped generate more than $500 million for the state’s economy supporting more than 2,000 jobs.

    But of course

    VicForests says the new ANU report does not factor in the value of timber products and processing.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-10/logging-halt-would-boost-victorian-economy-study-finds/8887088

  8. Thanks Y88
    I have the sound on in the background to try and get a bit of feel for what the acoustics are like.
    But I can’t find a reference to decibel spread during a hurricane.

  9. ItzaDream @ #521 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 11:49 am

    sonar @ #480 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 10:29 am

    I think Insiders is on the ABC to allow PB’ers the opportunity to talk back to the TV…My 88 year pld dad talks back to his TV all the time…..I once said to him..” dad,you do realise that they can’t hear you “…to which he smiiled and said..” I know, but it makes me feel better”

    My elderly mother reached a stage where she had trouble working the TV. I arrived one day and the women’s hockey was on, in which she was clearly uninterested. “You don’t have to watch that you know Mum, I’ll change it”. “Oh no”, she said, “I wouldn’t want to stop their game.”

    Point 1. Talking to TV enables one to practice ones store of suitable words to describe out of favour politicians and other unworthies.

    Point 2. Your elderly mother is quite right. The ladies hockey should not be interrupted simply because various individuals are not interested.

    Keep up the good work (whatever that is).

    😜

  10. For some reason I recorded and have just been watching the detective series Rizzoli & Isles. Truly the Yanks have no bloody idea of how to make believable and watchable TV crime programs. There may some exceptions.

  11. At the marriage equality rally at Sydney town hall. Looks like a good crowd, but hard to tell from within the crowd. Looks like the knitting nanas are here.

  12. Oakeshott Country @ #548 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 12:27 pm

    Falcon
    I think the Union has reaped what it sowed. It always wanted to be elitist but was seduced by Murdoch’s gold and couldn’t cut it as a professional sport
    Here’s a lesson for Twiggy; there is already a rebel rugby competition – it’s called League.
    The Force might survive if it persuades the NRL that the time is ripe for expansion.

    Wasn’t there a Perth team in the Superleague civil war days but deleted when NRL was created? Nevertheless I can’t see League expanding wholeheartedly into WA when there are other traditional League areas still wanting admission into NRL. Maybe more NRL games played in Perth but no local team.

  13. As Irma churned toward the Florida coast, two Republican lawmakers from the state voted against a $15 billion hurricane relief bill, saying that although they want aid to storm victims, they have concerns about other provisions of the measure.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/09/09/as-irma-churned-toward-their-state-two-florida-republicans-voted-against-hurricane-relief-bill/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_lawmakersirma843pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.980e1be4ff5e

  14. BK

    For some reason I recorded and have just been watching the detective series Rizzoli & Isles. Truly the Yanks have no bloody idea of how to make believable and watchable TV crime programs. There may some exceptions.

    ****************************

    Apart from the early B/W TV crime programs “Untouchables/Dragnet” etc – I did enjoy the whole US series of “Hill Street Blues” and “Homicide – Life On The Streets” ………. and more recently, The Wire ( fantastic show )

    …. and BK, you put me onto True Detective ……. and Narcos is really good too …… so is Bosch ….

    For Canada – Murdoch Mysteries

    I find the European/Scandanavian ones are exceptionally good – The Bridge ( Bron/Broen) – The Killing – Spiral – Witnesses – Braquo ……… are just some that I have seen, BK – and can recommend if you have not already seen them

  15. John Howard has called for ­proposed same-sex marriage legislation, including full protections for parents, religion and free speech, to be produced before the postal survey vote closes in ­November, as he launches his support for the No campaign.

    The former prime minister said yesterday it was disingenuous for the Yes campaign to argue that changing the law to ­include same-sex marriage did not affect other rights and that the survey involved a simple yes/no question.

    “I respect the Yes campaign ­arguments, but this is not about a single right and there are conflicting rights,”

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/samesex-marriage-survey-john-howard-kickstarts-the-no-case/news-story/da6ca4cc0e4bc5c6aebda25a753917ba

  16. Greensborough Growler @ #583 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 1:21 pm

    John Howard has called for ­proposed same-sex marriage legislation, including full protections for parents, religion and free speech, to be produced before the postal survey vote closes in ­November, as he launches his support for the No campaign.

    The former prime minister said yesterday it was disingenuous for the Yes campaign to argue that changing the law to ­include same-sex marriage did not affect other rights and that the survey involved a simple yes/no question.

    “I respect the Yes campaign ­arguments, but this is not about a single right and there are conflicting rights,”

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/samesex-marriage-survey-john-howard-kickstarts-the-no-case/news-story/da6ca4cc0e4bc5c6aebda25a753917ba

    Didn’t seem to exercise his mind when he made the changes to the definition of marriage during his reign. Good old honest John.

  17. Lowball insurance estimate for Irma: $15 billion. Highball: $50 billion.

    But I reckon that is a bit prem.

    Estimates for Harvey: around $100 billion.

  18. Theme composed by Mike Post who was prolific and successful with theme music in that era.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Post
    Mike Post (born Leland Michael Postil, September 29, 1944 in Berkeley, California) is an American composer, best known for his TV theme songs for such series as Law & Order, Law & Order: SVU, The A-Team, NYPD Blue, Renegade, The Rockford Files, L.A. Law, Quantum Leap, Magnum, P.I., and Hill Street Blues.

  19. Boerwar @ #584 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 1:24 pm

    GG
    Yo! I was hoping that you hadn’t been driven from the blog by the up front and personals.

    Nah. It’s just that I don’t see the point of repeating myself ad nauseum about the various topics that interest me.

    I say what I want to say and move on.

    I’m comfortable with others having different POV. But, I do find the pack attacks that dominate here on PB fairly boring these days.

  20. Rex Douglas (Block)
    Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 12:57 pm
    Comment #572
    I see bemused is back to personal attacks as he’s losing another debate.

    Rex

    No-one loses a debate with you. It’s like shooting fish in a barrel.

  21. As a meteorologist, there are things you learn in textbooks that you may never see in person. You know they happen theoretically, but the chances of seeing the most extraordinary weather phenomena are slim to none.

    This is one of those things — a hurricane strong enough to change the shape of an ocean.

    Twitter user @Kaydi_K shared this video Saturday afternoon, and I knew right away that even though it looked as though it couldn’t be possible, it was absolutely legit.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-is-literally-sucking-the-water-away-from-shorelines/?tid=pm_pop&utm_term=.9207ba4eca0d

  22. It’s Time @ #585 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 1:25 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #583 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 1:21 pm

    John Howard has called for ­proposed same-sex marriage legislation, including full protections for parents, religion and free speech, to be produced before the postal survey vote closes in ­November, as he launches his support for the No campaign.

    The former prime minister said yesterday it was disingenuous for the Yes campaign to argue that changing the law to ­include same-sex marriage did not affect other rights and that the survey involved a simple yes/no question.

    “I respect the Yes campaign ­arguments, but this is not about a single right and there are conflicting rights,”

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/samesex-marriage-survey-john-howard-kickstarts-the-no-case/news-story/da6ca4cc0e4bc5c6aebda25a753917ba

    Didn’t seem to exercise his mind when he made the changes to the definition of marriage during his reign. Good old honest John.

    But, he’s right to point out that the implications of the proposed change to the Law is not simple and that the argument that far reaching social change will not arise from the change is a lie.

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