BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

New poll this week from Newspoll (better for the Coalition), Essential Research (worse) and YouGov (about the same) add up to no change at all on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, except that the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Western Australia. The leadership ratings from Newspoll cause Malcolm Turnbull to gain a little ground on preferred prime minister, but lose it on net approval. Full details at the bottom.

First though, some news on forthcoming by-elections, which will get dedicated pages and threads soon enough:

• A date is yet to be set for the by-election in the Victorian state seat of Northcote following the death of on August 23. There will presumably be no Liberal candidate, but the Greens are highly competitive in the seat, having fallen 6.0% short of unseating Richardson at the 2014 election. Clare Burns, a political organiser with the Victorian Trades Hall Council and former speech pathologist, has been preselected unopposed as Labor’s candidate. The Greens will hold a preselection ballot today.

• There are now three state by-elections looming in New South Wales, and the date for them has been set at October 14. Cootamundra and Blacktown were already on the cards, following the respective retirements of Nationals MP Katrina Hodgkinson and Labor MP John Robertson, and Murray was added to the list earlier this week after Nationals MP Adrian Piccoli announced his retirement.

And some localised polling snippets:

• There was a rare Northern Territory opinion poll a fortnight ago, conducted by MediaReach for the Northern Territory News and encompassing a sample of 1400. On the primary vote, the poll has Labor on 43%, compared with 42.2% last year; the Country Liberal Party on 38%, recovering from 31.8%; and “others” on 19%. The respondent-allocated preference result is 50-50, compared with 58.5-41.5 to Labor last year, which implies a near-perfect reversal of the 63-37 preference split in favour of Labor last year.

(UPDATE: I had a report here on Tony Windsor’s prospects on New England, but I wasn’t looking closely enough and it was actually from before the last election.)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

795 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

  1. zoidlord @ #697 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:14 pm

    @GG

    Don’t think you get the point, Murdoch is lying about crowd numbers.

    And NASA news:

    Carl Zimmer @carlzimmer
    ·
    14h
    Not a joke: NASA nominee wants to strip “expansion of human knowledge” about space & Earth from NASA objectives

    Doesn’t matter. Plenty of people did not turn up to the rally ( Around 24million to be exact).

  2. Z

    ‘Not a joke: NASA nominee wants to strip “expansion of human knowledge” about space & Earth from NASA objectives’

    All the Sanders supporters should be so happy they white-anted Clinton and then went on a vote strike.

  3. Greensborough Growler

    Boerwar @ #682 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 4:57 pm

    “Gee Whillikers.”

    “I wish was in Florida so I could shoot Irma.”

    If it was Hurricane Trump would you say the same thing?

    ******************************

    I think ???- Boerwar was referring to this idiot :

    Florida sheriff begs people not to ‘shoot at Irma’ after bored guy claims storm will turn around

    The Pasco County Sheriff is asking Floridians not to shoot at Hurricane Irma because it will not impact its damage path.

    During a tweet Saturday evening, the sheriff explained “To clarify, DO NOT shoot weapons @ #Irma. You won’t make it turn around & it will have very dangerous side effects.”

    The tweet linked to a story explaining that 22-year-old Ryon Edwards was bored and started a Facebook event encouraging Floridians to fire their weapons at the hurricane to get it to turn around. Thus far, 46,000 people have RSVP’d to the event.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/09/florida-sheriff-begs-people-not-to-shoot-at-irma-after-bored-guy-claims-storm-will-turn-around/

  4. Rex Douglas @ #699 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:17 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #697 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:14 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #695 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:12 pm

    zoidlord @ #694 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:10 pm

    @GuardianAus
    ·
    12m
    Rainbow connection: tens of thousands say ‘I do’ to marriage equality

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/national/vic/2017/09/10/shorten-to-attend–yes–vote-rally-in-syd.amp.html

    “Thousands march in same sex marriage rallies”

    “Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has joined hundreds of people in Sydney’s CBD showing their support for sex marriage.”

    “Opposition leader Bill Shorten spoke in Sydney where hundreds have gathered to march for marriage equality.”

    oh he’s wonderful isn’t he…

    I hope this is not an example of you imposing your opinion!

    merely voicing my opinion… that’s he’s wonderful

    I’m legally obliged to impose my opinion on election day

    And Bill Shorten and Labor will gratefully accept your preferences when you do!

  5. Big Corporate bullies at it again IN AMERICA!

    Fight For 15 @fightfor15
    ·
    10h
    Pizza Hut demanding Florida workers risk their lives for min wage. GTFO. H/T @KatiSipp #HurricaneIrma #Fightfor15

  6. Greensborough Growler @ #707 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:22 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #699 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:17 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #697 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:14 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #695 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:12 pm

    zoidlord @ #694 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:10 pm

    @GuardianAus
    ·
    12m
    Rainbow connection: tens of thousands say ‘I do’ to marriage equality

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/national/vic/2017/09/10/shorten-to-attend–yes–vote-rally-in-syd.amp.html

    “Thousands march in same sex marriage rallies”

    “Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has joined hundreds of people in Sydney’s CBD showing their support for sex marriage.”

    “Opposition leader Bill Shorten spoke in Sydney where hundreds have gathered to march for marriage equality.”

    oh he’s wonderful isn’t he…

    I hope this is not an example of you imposing your opinion!

    merely voicing my opinion… that’s he’s wonderful

    I’m legally obliged to impose my opinion on election day

    And Bill Shorten and Labor will gratefully accept your preferences when you do!

    I guarantee one thing that my preference won’t go to Boerwar’s Informal Party.

  7. Rex Douglas @ #709 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:24 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #707 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:22 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #699 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:17 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #697 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:14 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #695 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:12 pm

    zoidlord @ #694 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:10 pm

    @GuardianAus
    ·
    12m
    Rainbow connection: tens of thousands say ‘I do’ to marriage equality

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/national/vic/2017/09/10/shorten-to-attend–yes–vote-rally-in-syd.amp.html

    “Thousands march in same sex marriage rallies”

    “Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has joined hundreds of people in Sydney’s CBD showing their support for sex marriage.”

    “Opposition leader Bill Shorten spoke in Sydney where hundreds have gathered to march for marriage equality.”

    oh he’s wonderful isn’t he…

    I hope this is not an example of you imposing your opinion!

    merely voicing my opinion… that’s he’s wonderful

    I’m legally obliged to impose my opinion on election day

    And Bill Shorten and Labor will gratefully accept your preferences when you do!

    I guarantee one thing that my preference won’t go to Boerwar’s Informal Party.

    Neither will BWs.

  8. Rex Douglas @ #712 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:27 pm

    Boerwar @ #705 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:21 pm

    Z

    ‘Not a joke: NASA nominee wants to strip “expansion of human knowledge” about space & Earth from NASA objectives’

    All the Sanders supporters should be so happy they white-anted Clinton and then went on a vote strike.

    Trump getting 63,000,000 votes is hardly Bernie’s fault.

    Politically, disunity is death.

  9. Time to remind myself that my joyous time on Bludger is best enjoyed by scrolling straight past Bemused and RD…

    One appears to have a nastiness surfeit disorder.

    The other appears to enjoy trolling for trolling’s sake.

  10. Phoenix

    In the spirit of the Darwin awards we should encourage 43,000 people to fire at the storm, given that their departure from the planet amy increase the planetary intelligence by about 10 points.

  11. Meanwhile, in the Auld Dart, the Brexit Tories have succeeded to doing to the country what the Coalition has only succeeded in doing for energy and global warming: created an utter, utter fuckup when it could have been avoided with a bit of common sense.

  12. Simon Katich @ #617 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 12:42 pm

    Joylon Wagg
    18,000 attended the game last night. Dont reckon many of them flew in for the occasion.

    And there are 20 something thousand South African expats living in Perth.

    Games can co-exist. Your post reminded me of Sydney when the Swans started.

    It’s worth pointing out how utterly ruthless the AFL has been when defending its market share in teh sport market.

  13. There were still Revolution bullet scars on buildings in Budapest (Pest Castle?) visible in 2001. It amazed me that they were not covered up during communism rule but maybe the Soviets thought they served a warning. The Hungarians seemed quite proud of them.

  14. Greensborough Growler @ #714 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:29 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #712 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:27 pm

    Boerwar @ #705 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:21 pm

    Z

    ‘Not a joke: NASA nominee wants to strip “expansion of human knowledge” about space & Earth from NASA objectives’

    All the Sanders supporters should be so happy they white-anted Clinton and then went on a vote strike.

    Trump getting 63,000,000 votes is hardly Bernie’s fault.

    Politically, disunity is death.

    Jeb Bush would disagree

  15. Florida sheriff begs people not to ‘shoot at Irma’ after bored guy claims storm will turn around

    Some Americans seem to think they can solve everything with guns.

  16. The US electoral primary system is always certain to produce disunity. It is pretty horrid. At least in our system, although the factions can be bitter enemies you do not have to slag off in public other members of your party to get elected. Sure there will be stuff in branches and at informal gatherings, but not the ritual public humiliation that happens in the USA. Obama /Clinton was pretty testy too.

  17. Rex Douglas @ #721 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:34 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #714 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:29 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #712 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:27 pm

    Boerwar @ #705 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:21 pm

    Z

    ‘Not a joke: NASA nominee wants to strip “expansion of human knowledge” about space & Earth from NASA objectives’

    All the Sanders supporters should be so happy they white-anted Clinton and then went on a vote strike.

    Trump getting 63,000,000 votes is hardly Bernie’s fault.

    Politically, disunity is death.

    Jeb Bush would disagree

    Fair point. But, I would contend that jeb Bush didn’t do the work to have a base of support. So, he was inevitably irrelevant. Sanders campaigned up to and after the nomination and his supporters were divisive thereafter. they empowered Democrats not to vote or look at other candidates.

    The outcome of that strategy is Trump!

  18. GG

    Sanders campaigned up to and after the nomination and his supporters were divisive thereafter. they empowered Democrats not to vote or look at other candidates.

    Definitely a factor in the result.

  19. Greensborough Growler @ #728 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:40 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #721 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:34 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #714 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:29 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #712 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:27 pm

    Boerwar @ #705 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:21 pm

    Z

    ‘Not a joke: NASA nominee wants to strip “expansion of human knowledge” about space & Earth from NASA objectives’

    All the Sanders supporters should be so happy they white-anted Clinton and then went on a vote strike.

    Trump getting 63,000,000 votes is hardly Bernie’s fault.

    Politically, disunity is death.

    Jeb Bush would disagree

    Fair point. But, I would contend that jeb Bush didn’t do the work to have a base of support. So, he was inevitably irrelevant. Sanders campaigned up to and after the nomination and his supporters were divisive thereafter. they empowered Democrats not to vote or look at other candidates.

    The outcome of that strategy is Trump!

    You think Ted Cruz didn’t work against Trump before and after ?

  20. Our marriage was officiated in a religious ceremony some 40 years ago. I don’t find myself threatened, my marriage diminished or devalued by the prospect of marriage equality. So I don’t understand or support GG’s prejudice.

  21. Boerwar

    Come on stick to the PB script. You offer some rubbish opinion (;) ) . I offer an erudite differing opinion.You question my sanity/IQ/parentage, I reply by questioning your sanity/IQ/parentage. Then we are off and racing. 😀

  22. Boerwar @ #715 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:30 pm

    Time to remind myself that my joyous time on Bludger is best enjoyed by scrolling straight past Bemused and RD…

    One appears to have a nastiness surfeit disorder.

    The other appears to enjoy trolling for trolling’s sake.

    Oh dear…. the old Bore is very touchy about being reminded about his idiotic ‘Informal Party’ as I do from time to time.
    Tough!

  23. Rex Douglas @ #729 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:45 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #728 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:40 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #721 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:34 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #714 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:29 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #712 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:27 pm

    Boerwar @ #705 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:21 pm

    Z

    ‘Not a joke: NASA nominee wants to strip “expansion of human knowledge” about space & Earth from NASA objectives’

    All the Sanders supporters should be so happy they white-anted Clinton and then went on a vote strike.

    Trump getting 63,000,000 votes is hardly Bernie’s fault.

    Politically, disunity is death.

    Jeb Bush would disagree

    Fair point. But, I would contend that jeb Bush didn’t do the work to have a base of support. So, he was inevitably irrelevant. Sanders campaigned up to and after the nomination and his supporters were divisive thereafter. they empowered Democrats not to vote or look at other candidates.

    The outcome of that strategy is Trump!

    You think Ted Cruz didn’t work against Trump before and after ?

    IMHO Cruz pulled his head in and worked for “Team Republican”. His personal animosity wasn’t that prevalent and he asked his supporters to get behind Trump.

    So, the Dens were in on going open hostility whereas the Repubs were more disciplined.

  24. Greensborough Growler @ #737 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:52 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #729 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:45 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #728 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:40 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #721 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:34 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #714 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:29 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #712 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:27 pm

    Boerwar @ #705 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 5:21 pm

    Z

    ‘Not a joke: NASA nominee wants to strip “expansion of human knowledge” about space & Earth from NASA objectives’

    All the Sanders supporters should be so happy they white-anted Clinton and then went on a vote strike.

    Trump getting 63,000,000 votes is hardly Bernie’s fault.

    Politically, disunity is death.

    Jeb Bush would disagree

    Fair point. But, I would contend that jeb Bush didn’t do the work to have a base of support. So, he was inevitably irrelevant. Sanders campaigned up to and after the nomination and his supporters were divisive thereafter. they empowered Democrats not to vote or look at other candidates.

    The outcome of that strategy is Trump!

    You think Ted Cruz didn’t work against Trump before and after ?

    IMHO Cruz pulled his head in and worked for “Team Republican”. His personal animosity wasn’t that prevalent and he asked his supporters to get behind Trump.

    So, the Dens were in on going open hostility whereas the Repubs were more disciplined.

    if you say so 😆

  25. The facade of the College of Surgeons in Dublin is still riddled with bullet holes 101 years after the British shot it up. Something the Irish are proud of.

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